Tag: elections

Populism is alive but not so well…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

No views on the terrible Middle East events this week. Would anybody predict what is going to happen even one hour hence? Except Trump says negotiations are happening and Tehran says that is fake news. Someone is not telling the truth…

So, over to the immediate future of populism. It is a common view that it is thriving across most Western democracies with moderates endlessly on the back foot. Well, to quote another populist who is no longer with us politically, the ‘gloomsters’ are not correct. Let me try and explain why.

Has populism peaked? Probably…

In the UK, this blog has consistently argued Reform UK has peaked. They are down 2-4% to mid to late 20s in recent polls and their whole enterprise hangs purely on Nigel Farage. The recruitment of deeply unpopular right-wing ex-Conservatives has not helped in the red wall seats and then there is tactical voting to consider. By-elections have been disappointing for them both in Wales and Manchester. Add to this their past/current support for the deeply, deeply unpopular Donald Trump (things can only get worse on that front…) and their fate is sealed. Don’t get me wrong, Reform will do well in the May elections and remain a major threat to the usual political order but when it matters, enough voters will unite against them to block a path to power.

Then some good news in France (I am assuming those who read this blog are anti-populist otherwise you are in the wrong place…). The far-right did not make the breakthroughs expected in local elections at the weekend. Moderates on both left and right polled better than predicted. Centre-left socialists held on to Paris, Lyon and Marseilles where in the latter National Rally had particularly high hopes of victory. In Le Havre, Edouard Philippe, a strong centre-right contender for the presidency, easily won re-election. Of course, the closeness of National Rally to the US president did not help their cause. Oh how the populist far-right must now resent being chained to Trump…

In Germany, Chancellor Merz’s conservative party has just seen off a surge in support for the extremist far-right AfD party to win in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Albeit at the expense of a sharp fall in support for the SPD, it is another example that moderates in one form or another are still the force to beat.

In Hungary, despite Putin’s best endeavours, the vile Russia supporting nationalist Prime Minister, Victor Orban, is on course to be defeated in elections by the centre-right on 12th April. He is a wily operator so we shall see but is currently 10-12% behind in the polls.

Last but not least, Donald Trump… Iran has been a disaster for him so far, he is deeply unpopular on the economy and now even falling behind in polls on immigration. His most recent satisfaction rating is minus 18% although why 39% of the electorate still supports him is a mystery. The mid-terms look dire for the GOP and the Democrats, still sadly by default, may even take the Senate in addition to the House of Representatives. Then it is game-over for Trump at least in terms of radicalism. But, please don’t try to impeach him. He won the popular vote…

Populism is a powerful force. It may just be reaching its peak. But, of course, to bury it is to be reliant on moderates to prove their case. We are still waiting…

Germany: the most consequential election of the year

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Germany has been losing its way. A weak, squabbling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and the FDP has been a disaster for the country. Growth for Europe’s largest economy has been stalling, and it is all at sea on Ukraine.

That is in addition to what we know in hindsight was the less than perfect Chancellorship of Angela Merkel. The charge sheet against her is growing. Too much immigration which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, giving up nuclear power, leaving it reliant on Russian gas until recently, and failing to invest in Germany’s infrastructure all happened under her watch. She was in power for too long.

The results on Sunday allow Germany a reset. The CDU/CSU bloc is almost certainly going to form the next government perhaps in a grand coalition with the SPD. Friedrich Merz will be the new Chancellor ushering in a welcome (and rare) moderate centre-right government. He will shake things up.

Merz brings a welcome change to German politics

But before that, let’s just deal with the rise of the far-right extremist AfD, supported by the increasingly loopy Elon Musk. They did very well with 20% of the vote and are not to be underestimated. But they did NOT win and will not form a government any more than Reform in the UK is going to do so in the UK. There is no room for complacency, but there is a ceiling to the support for these types of parties. The best way of countering them is for mainstream parties to deliver in government. Starmer, with his ‘flexible’ ideology, knows this only too well, and so, I suspect, does Merz.

So back to the new German government. It is early days but Merz is rightly giving up on Trump (not America) – indeed he has been undiplomatically rude, wants to strengthen Europe’s defence unlike his vacillating predecessor, Scholz, and will focus on growing the German economy whilst tightening up immigration. Just being decisive is a good start.

Trump may well be heading for a backlash in his treatment of Europe. He is at peak power and there is only one route from here and that is downwards. Transactional politics works both ways… A rejuvenated Germany led by the CDU/CSU, a reinvented, patriotic Labour Party in the UK and more determination from the likes of France, Italy and others, all spending more on defence, may just be the boost that Europe needs and long overdue.

Every cloud has a silver lining so thank you Donald Trump. But the next four years cannot come quickly enough…

The dark cynicism at the heart of democracy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Churchill’s maxim that “democracy is the worst form of government – except for all the others that have been tried” is being severely tested. The quality of politicians, populism, the rise of social media, fake news, the 24-hour news cycle are all testing its ability to deliver. Those in public life more cynically than ever before, sometimes in desperation, attempt to manipulate the electorate in the face of such headwinds whilst voters, in turn, are more cynical about politicians, their believability and ability to produce results. Polls suggest the public is losing patience.

Democracy facing almost overwhelming headwinds

Let’s take each one in turn. The quality of politicians in most democracies is generally deteriorating. The price paid for public service is seen as too high as 24- hour media scrutiny, online abuse, and a general lack of respect for those in authority take their toll. I was a Conservative Party parliamentary candidates’ list assessor for nine years up to 2019, and the fall in quality of applicants was palpable. The best are eschewing politics for a career elsewhere. Many on the list are simply glorified local councillors. Local knowledge on day one and a fanatical ability to deliver leaflets and canvass are seen as superior to raw talent. That is before one takes into consideration the quality of recent Prime Ministers at the top of the political tree…

In America, before the rise of Kamala Harris, the choice of presidential candidate, aided by the obscene amounts of money needed to participate, was awful and probably not that great now. But why is a narcissist with declining cognitive abilities still leading the Republicans? Desperate.

This fall in the quality of those seeking a role in public life is repeated across countries and is exacerbated by past and current populist candidates such as Trump, Johnson, Farage, Bolsonaro, Berlusconi, Marine Le Pen, Orban, Modi to name but a few. Mostly (perhaps not the latter two) incompetent and caring little for their electorate, they have risen on the back of over-promising mainstream politicians failing to deliver relative to expectations.

Then social media. The abuse is awful and sometimes aired by leaders who should know better. Trump recently implied online that Kamala Harris was the beneficiary of oral sex. Incredible. Conspiracy theories such as QAnon (the world is run by satanic child molesters) abound. They have always existed, but the oxygen of publicity that the internet provides is like pouring petrol on flames. Who wants to steer a path through democratic politics in this maelstrom? This dovetails into fake news with doctored videos, photos, voice recordings, further adding pressure.

Lastly, the 24 hour news cycle. Hounded by social media, mainstream outlets harry politicians constantly in order to keep up. Politicians are expected to respond to events immediately, know everything about every topic in interviews and account for the smallest flaws. Achievements go unrecognised as journalists focus on publicising every misstep in the name of ‘news’. Thoughtful, longer-term political discourse on complex issues has become an unnecessary luxury in a world of fragmented, short-term focused communication channels set on instant voter gratification.

Authoritarians suppress debate, control social media, and brutally remove opponents. Democracy in contrast, is a system of checks and balances overwhelmed by the pressures listed above. Those pressures are undermining its very existence and are becoming a price too heavy to bear.

2024 predictions: a momentous year for elections

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

For political geeks or those who simply care about democracy, 2024 will be a huge year. More than 2 billion people across 50 countries will go to the polls and the consequences for many will reverberate for a generation. Of course, some of these elections are more free than others.

As one gears up nervously to make predictions for the year ahead, time to review this blog’s predictions for 2023. Not a bad year actually although apologies in advance for Trump…

  • There will be no UK General Election in 2023 – an easy tick
  • Sunak’s style will not quite resonate with the electorate – tick
  • Biden will run again – tick so far…
  • The Ukraine war will last into 2024 – tick
  • China will not invade Taiwan but the threat will rise – an easyish tick
  • Erdogan will win the presidency again in Turkey – tick
  • DeSantis will trump Trump – oops, massive cross

It’s all about elections in 2024…

So here goes, insiderightpolitics’ calculated gut feel:

First, to the UK. Sunak this week sort of confirmed there will be no election until the second half of 2024. Pretty obvious really. The Tories are 18-20 per cent behind in the polls, Sunak has only met one of his five pledges, recent tax cuts will only gradually start to be felt even as the overall tax burden continues to rise and time is needed to announce more. Sunak will want his 2 years as PM before, you heard it here first… the Tories go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation. One keeps hearing that Starmer hasn’t ‘sealed the deal’ and the Tories may make a surprise recovery to at least achieve a hung parliament, but I don’t buy it. Labour will do well in Scotland, the LibDems in the South. Reform UK will pull the rug from the Tories in the ‘Red Wall’. The sheer number of groups who want the Tories out will overwhelm their campaign. It is time for a change and even they know it.

The Tories move further to the Right after the election. Kemi Badenoch is the front-runner currently but there is a long way to go. Expect culture wars to feature and a bit of cozying up to Reform UK. Oh dear. This prediction is a no brainer. Tory moderates are split and simply, well, too moderate. It will take a generation before they find their backbone, and all this assumes there is no change to the electoral system. Rory Stewart once intimated he might lead the Tories in 10 years’ time, but he has also just intimated he would happily serve under Starmer, so no, he won’t.

Trump. This is a brave prediction, but he will not win the presidency and may not even be a candidate. Commentators have consistently underestimated the Democrat’s fortunes, either in the mid-terms or recently in State elections. Polls which put Trump ahead change their tune if he is convicted of anything. His best bet is Biden and Biden’s best bet is Trump. Neither of course may be on the ballot by November (don’t underestimate Trump’s health challenges as well as indictments) but Biden will beat Trump if it comes to that. All bets are off however if it is Biden versus Nikki Haley. She is running a smart campaign whilst DeSantis is running a dumb one.

There are many elections in Europe. Not least EU elections to the European Parliament. The populist Right will make gains notably in France, Italy and Germany but gains will be driven by frustration rather than belief and will not be as extensive as forecast.

Oh, come on, give it to me. Putin will win in Russia and, of course, Modi in India.

On other matters, the war with Ukraine will grind on throughout 2024 but Western resolve will hold up. It is doing wonders (Hungry not withstanding) to Europe’s understanding of the need to wean itself off American protection with their split Congress problems.

This blog avoids analysis of the Middle East – there are many more experts than I – but Netanyahu will not see out the year as Israel’s Prime Minister. His aggressive strategy towards the Palestinians, really all about staying in power, has manifestly failed and his sinister judicial laws rejected by Israel’s Supreme Court. This cat has used up his nine lives, sadly too late for many.

So there you go. A fascinating but scary year ahead. Even those not interested in politics should realise that their futures for years will be shaped by the outcomes of elections in 2024.

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