There has been a lot of hype recently about Reform UK (‘Reform’) forming the next government with Nigel Farage our next Prime Minister. This has been fuelled by Trump’s election victory in the US, the possibility that the Far-Right takes control in France and Labour’s general unpopularity. The latter is reflected in opinion polls which suggest that Labour/Conservative and Reform are running neck and neck.

All hype and no substance, at least for now…

All this is nonsense of course. Simply Christmas madness. Let me tell you why:

1. There is no general election for four years. Trump will have left office by then, almost certainly tarnished and anything can happen in the interim. The UK has the advantage of appearing the bastion of moderation.
2. Labour is getting all its unpopular decisions out of the way upfront. Whilst its communication skills leave much to be desired, making life harder than it need be, its overall approach is sensible. Labour’s future is reliant on whether it delivers. The government will almost certainly miss its goals but, on the whole, there will be noticeable improvements. There will have to be…
3. Nigel Farage is a hugely talented communicator but also a blow hard. His interest in governing is tangential and Reform has a natural ceiling of support which will block any path to government. Reform actually hasn’t reached the peaks of popularity the Brexit Party achieved. Farage is on a roll with his friend in the White House and Labour’s unpopularity, but this will not last. That is not to underestimate Reform because they will raise decent funds and will broaden their footprint, but this will not be enough.
4. The real fly in the ointment is the state of the Tories. Obsessed by Reform, it is excruciating to watch them lose their way so badly. We all need a decent Opposition. They don’t know what they stand for, have lost any sense of a constructive, moderate touch and will be out of power for a generation. Kemi Badenoch doesn’t impress so far but it is early days and they should always remember Reform is no substitute for a competent, centre-right Tory Party when they are ready. But it could be a while…

So, there will be much talk of populism washing up on the shores of the UK. We are not the US, we are not France, there is no election for four years and, most of all perhaps, we have a strong ironic sense of humour which ultimately always puts extremists in their place.

A note of optimism to prepare you for a Christmas blog next week…

And that is not just because most of it was leaked in advance…

What an earth did commentators think Labour was going to do? It was obvious from the start of this government, hidden by all parties during the General Election, that better public services or even maintaining them as they are would involve higher taxes.

It was a brave (many might say high risk) budget. Nobody likes higher taxes, but the shortfall in public finances merited them.

Asset price inflation after years of quantitative easing has made many people better off than perhaps they expected. The last few years exacerbated by inflation have made it tough for those at the bottom of the ladder. Add in covid and the impact of the Ukraine war, and there was always going to be a reckoning.

The Tories should never have cut employees’ NI, and now employers have to make up the difference. It is quite simply a tax on jobs, and this is where this blog parts company with the government. All parties blather on about small businesses being the backbone of the economy, yet both parties have stuffed them in recent years. Labour shouldn’t have boxed themselves in and reversed the Tories’ cut. Both parties are as bad as each other.

However, one hopes the Chancellor sticks to her guns and keeps the budget intact from whinging pressure groups. The pain might as well be felt now.

The real reckoning is whether the government spends its revenues competently, whether economic growth accelerates accordingly, and whether there is room to cut taxes selectively in 4 years’ time against the backdrop of improving public services.

Umm… We had better hope Labour succeeds because there are few alternatives. The Tories will be weak opponents. In the most inconsequential election of the year, they will almost certainly vote Kemi Badenoch as Leader tomorrow and the odds of her surviving  through to the next election are only a little lower than Labour getting the economy right.

Fingers crossed, but Hobson’s choice indeed.

A reader kindly suggested I stop writing about the Tories. They will be irrelevant for years and there must surely be more interesting topics to explore said my friend.

Well, I sort of agree and disagree. They are the main opposition to Labour hegemony and in this sense are an important political force to assess. On the other hand, in leaving Jenrick versus Badenoch as the final two right-wing leadership candidates for members to choose from the Tories have diminished themselves, paving the way for an extended period in opposition.

Who really cares which one wins? They are both awful.

What were MPs thinking about in giving members this Hobson’s choice? No moderate or even centrist Conservative candidates remain, and the winner only has the support of a third of their parliamentary colleagues. Cleverly, the centrist front-runner on Tuesday who was eliminated yesterday by 4 votes, must be kicking himself for his complacency.

But who really cares which one wins the contest? They are both awful although, to be fair, Badenoch is the more authentic candidate. Jenrick has remade himself as the immigration warrior driven on by a ferociously ambitious partner. My only contact with Mrs. Jenrick was watching her patronise an LGBTQ+ audience at a Tory Conference fringe meeting by assuming all the audience needed to hear was Mr. Jenrick’s views on Eurovision. Oh dear indeed.

Then you have Badenoch, the cultural warrior, who clumsily tells it as it is. What a choice.

I hear some MPs talking openly that they will have about 18 months in office before they are ousted. Incredible.

And the real winners? Well, Labour and the LibDems of course, who are rubbing their hands with glee. Either Jenrick or Badenoch will mean not a single vote from the LibDems will peel off back to the Tories and more Tory voters may actually come their way. Labour will go for Jenrick on his dog whistle politics as he seeks to replicate Reform UK and Badenoch for her missteps in communication. The Tories are a gift that keeps giving.

This blog has predicted for some time that the Tories are likely to move to the Right before either blowing up or realising the error of their ways. Their only hope is that, hungry for power, they belatedly embrace the centre-right ground again. It will be a long wait.

Whatever the outcome I grant my friend his wish. This blog in striving for relevance is going to write far less frequently about the Tories now they have found their route to a right-wing cul-de-sac.

Returning from 24 hours at the Tory Annual Conference, I am adjusting to life back on earth. Party conferences are always slightly surreal due to die-hard activists gathering in one security cordoned space, but this one was particularly strange.

It was not too poorly attended, and most people had a spring in their step. The prevailing view was that the Labour government was blowing up and, with the right leader, the Tories would be back in charge within four years. Umm… Wiser heads know better including some Tory inclined journalists I spoke to. In denial that power is almost certainly 10 years’ away, they said reality would set in next year and the mood would be quite different. We shall see.

But back to the leadership issue. All four remaining candidates buzzed around the conference, flanked by groupies, excited they were the centre of so much attention. For three of them, it will be fleeting… They were given Q and A opportunities during the conference and then on the last day the chance to speak for 20 minutes. This part was expected to be make or break.

None of the above are likely to be the next Prime Minister…

It wasn’t really. Like much hyped presidential debates in the US, the speeches would have moved the dial only a little, at least at this stage. Remember the electorate is still 120 thoroughly unscrupulous MPs who would have largely made up their minds by now. The list is whittled down to two and only then does the membership have a say. The speeches were aimed at them.

All four performed well I thought although the content of speeches was mostly well delivered platitudes. But there were clear winners and losers relative to expectations. Robert Jenrick, the favourite, performed most poorly. A dark almost Trumpite speech with an obsession on immigration, it didn’t quite land. He wants the leadership almost too much and will be disappointed. Kemi Badenoch, once the favourite, performed solidly but no more than that relative to expectations. Badenoch’s problem was that she had had a bad conference in the run-up to her speech, getting embroiled in controversies such as levels of maternity pay which should have been avoided. The feeling amongst many is her ability to pick a fight with her own shadow may not be what you want in an opposition leader. Tom Tugendhat gave a good speech and is clearly a contender for a major role in a new shadow cabinet. His challenge is that he is a moderate. Need I say more…. The winner was the likeable James Cleverly who outperformed expectations to give a particularly well-received speech. He will be happy.

The conclusion? Cleverly may have done just enough to squeeze in to the last two and therefore perhaps his speech did matter. This will be at the expense of Tugendhat. So, it will be Cleverly versus Jenrick or Badenoch, probably the former. I could actually see Cleverly’s likeability getting him over the line.

But as a former Cabinet Minister said, none of the above will be the next Prime Minister and, as far as understanding that the bubble has yet to burst…