For the first time (yes, it has taken this long…), I am concerned about the direction or, rather, lack of direction of this government. I have always thought Starmer’s ideological pragmatism was to be admired, but the danger is that if bad mistakes blow you off course, there is no path to return to.

A terrible week for Starmer’s government…

This happened big time this week. Amendments to the benefits system which the government tried to drive through parliament to show fiscal rectitude were horribly rushed. Why introduce them now when a comprehensive review of the whole system was in train, reporting in 2026? Rightly, a lack of logic and no attempt to win backbenchers over, meant defeat loomed despite a 165 seat majority. Starmer et al realised this far too late and the amendments to win his colleagues over first diluted savings and then eradicated them. No cost savings now, and the government’s authority and credibility shredded in the process. Nobody doubts the current benefits system is unsustainable, even most Labour backbenchers, but this was not the way to go about fixing it with short-term changes simply to save an immediate £5 billion.

However, for a moment, spare a thought for Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor. She looked terrible in parliament yesterday, barely containing her tears. The cause was explained as a personal matter, but nobody should go through this in public. In PMQs, the charmless Kemi Badenoch alighted on her and Starmer ignored her. It damaged both of them. Starmer made up for it in later interviews, yet it took Mel Stride, Tory Shadow Chancellor, from the Opposition to exhibit genuine sympathy for Reeves’ plight on Sky News this morning. Good on him. Sometimes the toll of public life is too great.

Anyway, back to the issue in hand. Starmer needs to get back to domestic politics full-time. It is understandable that Ukraine, the EU, Putin, Trump, NATO are all hugely time consuming, but you cannot contribute constructively to international crises if you are defenestrated at home.

Starmer needs to lay out a comprehensive map of where his government is heading and, consequently, what the UK should look like in 2029. There needs to be carefully calibrated milestones that the public can identify with to measure achievements. Visible progress is everything if Labour is to head off the populists.

Starmer also better move fast to build relations with his fellow MPs and get off the hook of obsessive fiscal discipline for now which is creating more harm than good through excessive short-termism. He needs to improve his economic understanding to avoid ‘what the markets are thinking’ panic every few weeks whilst at the same time defending Reeves to the hilt. They are joined at the hip whether he likes it or not. If she goes, he is next.

An NHS overhaul, new house builds, planning reform, reviews of the benefits system and social care (the latter taking too long, however), and infrastructure investment are all strong building blocks for recovery in the government’s fortunes. But, Starmer has to get his communications act together and give the vision thing or he could be toast.

And the alternatives are too awful to contemplate…

The UK election results this morning are putting a smile on Nigel Farage’s face. A by-election win for Reform in Runcorn (by 6 votes), winning the mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire and a slew of council seats to come.

This portrait of Nigel Farage in the National Portrait Gallery says it all… for now…

Labour is on the back foot, but they held on to the mayoralties in North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster. They should not panic over the success of Reform any more than the main parties might have done when the LibDems surged in by-elections. It has been a grim first year for the Government. A misjudged first budget, economic headwinds everywhere leaving little money to improve public services, all exacerbated by Trump’s tariffs have provided a terrible backdrop to these elections.

However, whilst this blog predicts further success for Reform, they are close to peaking, loathed by a large majority of the electorate. Labour, despite the uninspiring but broadly competent leadership of Keir Starmer, is close to bottoming.

We are, as the Greens put it, in a period when most votes are being more evenly split between five parties. This will lead to erratic and dramatic election results, but Labour is still in the strongest position by far to win the next general election. Excitable journalists should remember there is still four years to go.

The party who should panic is the Tory Party. It has totally lost its way, stands for nothing and speaks to nobody. Its audience has drifted and is drifting off to the LibDems to the Left and Reform to the Right.

There is a clear conclusion from these results.  Kemi Badenoch is not up to the job. Fearful of the Right, she shamefully pursues culture wars when there are much more important issues to address and define her party.  Why are Tories Tories? It is the economy stupid. Small government, taxes extracted from the public with real justification or not at all. It is the Party of aspiration not prejudice.

Running after Reform’s agenda has been and will continue to be a disaster, take note, Robert Jenrick. The Conservative Party probably needs James Cleverly as leader to buy itself some time, but to do what? To get back to first principles, not letting others to define it. It is that simple but do the Tories have the understanding or the appetite to do this? There is no evidence so far, and until the Tories wake up and release themselves from their obsession with Reform, they have no future.