Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
Managing Trump relatively successfully, a US/UK trade deal, a UK/India trade deal, a new compact with the EU. Despite the devil being in the detail, Starmer should get a pat on the back.
Being PM is a thankless task…
He won’t, of course. None of the above will get the UK back to a pre-Brexit nirvana. They barely get us to the starting line, and few voters will see any immediate impact.
The narrative has been set. All mainstream politicians are useless at best, dissembling voters to hide their inadequacies. Starmer is no exception.
Reform, according to many voters, tells it as it is. Excessive political correctness, an interfering state, too much immigration that Labour lovies secretly like. Then, the government cosies up to Europe, selling the fisheries industry down the river, so to speak.
Just a reminder on the latter, the fisheries industry contributes 0.03% to the UK economy. 70% of agricultural output is sold to Europe. This has been made immeasurably easier because of this week’s deal.
But in a world of populism, there is little rational debate. Scare tactics, yah-boo exchanges, and downright lies dominate debate, not facts.
For Starmer, what can he do? Very little. It will be a hard slog to the next election. He will need to prove NHS waiting lists are falling, immigration is falling, and the economy is growing with tangible benefits, including an increase in housing supply.
It would help if he had a clearer philosophical narrative. This blog likes his non-ideological pragmatism, but it makes it harder to explain the ultimate destination he is trying to reach.
However, he has one major advantage. The increasingly haplessness of today’s Tory Party. Starmer will be able to differentiate himself much more clearly from Reform at the next election than in the days when it used to be a competitive race with the Tories.
Until then, it will be an uphill, thankless battle. Who would go into politics?
The UK election results this morning are putting a smile on Nigel Farage’s face. A by-election win for Reform in Runcorn (by 6 votes), winning the mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire and a slew of council seats to come.
This portrait of Nigel Farage in the National Portrait Gallery says it all… for now…
Labour is on the back foot, but they held on to the mayoralties in North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster. They should not panic over the success of Reform any more than the main parties might have done when the LibDems surged in by-elections. It has been a grim first year for the Government. A misjudged first budget, economic headwinds everywhere leaving little money to improve public services, all exacerbated by Trump’s tariffs have provided a terrible backdrop to these elections.
However, whilst this blog predicts further success for Reform, they are close to peaking, loathed by a large majority of the electorate. Labour, despite the uninspiring but broadly competent leadership of Keir Starmer, is close to bottoming.
We are, as the Greens put it, in a period when most votes are being more evenly split between five parties. This will lead to erratic and dramatic election results, but Labour is still in the strongest position by far to win the next general election. Excitable journalists should remember there is still four years to go.
The party who should panic is the Tory Party. It has totally lost its way, stands for nothing and speaks to nobody. Its audience has drifted and is drifting off to the LibDems to the Left and Reform to the Right.
There is a clear conclusion from these results. Kemi Badenoch is not up to the job. Fearful of the Right, she shamefully pursues culture wars when there are much more important issues to address and define her party. Why are Tories Tories? It is the economy stupid. Small government, taxes extracted from the public with real justification or not at all. It is the Party of aspiration not prejudice.
Running after Reform’s agenda has been and will continue to be a disaster, take note, Robert Jenrick. The Conservative Party probably needs James Cleverly as leader to buy itself some time, but to do what? To get back to first principles, not letting others to define it. It is that simple but do the Tories have the understanding or the appetite to do this? There is no evidence so far, and until the Tories wake up and release themselves from their obsession with Reform, they have no future.
Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’
Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.
A President out of control…
He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.
Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.
Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.
Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.
Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.
Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.
Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.
Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.
Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values
A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.
This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.
The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.
Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.
Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.
The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.
Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.
The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.
Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.
Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.
Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values
A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.
This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.
The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.
Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.
Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.
The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.
Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.
The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.
In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.
What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.
Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government
In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.
Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.
But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.
Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.
Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.
There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.
My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.
Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.
The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.
Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…
But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.
Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.
Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.
The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.
Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.
All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.
Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.
I am not a Labour supporter, but I have always liked Starmer. Why?
First, and wisely, he doesn’t rely on charisma. Politics is not a game, and we are all tired of dishonest, charismatic personalities who are fundamentally incompetent, and that is only in the UK… Starmer is solid, serious, uncharismatic, and ideologically flexible. He held a big job successfully as Director of Public Prosecutions and, despite an uncertain start, now seems to be applying those skills to the role of PM.
After an uncertain start, Starmer seems to be finding his feet and that should be a relief to everyone…
Second, let’s explore that ideological flexibility. Life is too complex and too chaotic to assume a set ideology provides answers in all scenarios. Needs must. Starmer, only elected in 2015, is certainly centre-left but no idealogue. He supported Corbyn out of necessity whilst maintaining support for membership of the EU. He promptly ran for the leadership, promising to continue Corbyn’s policies before ditching them after victory. He suspended Corbyn from the Labour Party on the issue of anti-semitism. In office, he cut the winter fuel allowance, will tackle sickness benefits, and has slashed foreign aid to support an increased defence budget.
He is also ruthless. He fired Sue Gray, his chief of staff, for failing to get the politics right. He dismissed his Transport Secretary for misdemeanours he knew about when appointing her and failed to appoint his long-standing Shadow Cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, to any ministerial post for reasons unknown. Apparently, he doesn’t like the tittle tattle of ordinary politics and is not particularly clubbable. Good!
Starmer’s government has taken unpopular economic decisions, some of which are a mistake by sticking to past rash fiscal promises. But they were taken early in his administration. He is moving closer to the EU generally but cautiously and now takes the lead on Ukraine, treading a careful line between his allies and a rogue US presidency which makes the US in all but name a former ally. The latest act by Trump of suspending aid to Ukraine is, quite frankly, incredible and a waste of all the financial support the US previously provided.
He seems to be finding his feet, has four more years, and should make the most of this stability. In such an uncertain world with such little choice in domestic politics, we must hope Starmer, and his government succeed.
Germany has been losing its way. A weak, squabbling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and the FDP has been a disaster for the country. Growth for Europe’s largest economy has been stalling, and it is all at sea on Ukraine.
That is in addition to what we know in hindsight was the less than perfect Chancellorship of Angela Merkel. The charge sheet against her is growing. Too much immigration which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, giving up nuclear power, leaving it reliant on Russian gas until recently, and failing to invest in Germany’s infrastructure all happened under her watch. She was in power for too long.
The results on Sunday allow Germany a reset. The CDU/CSU bloc is almost certainly going to form the next government perhaps in a grand coalition with the SPD. Friedrich Merz will be the new Chancellor ushering in a welcome (and rare) moderate centre-right government. He will shake things up.
Merz brings a welcome change to German politics
But before that, let’s just deal with the rise of the far-right extremist AfD, supported by the increasingly loopy Elon Musk. They did very well with 20% of the vote and are not to be underestimated. But they did NOT win and will not form a government any more than Reform in the UK is going to do so in the UK. There is no room for complacency, but there is a ceiling to the support for these types of parties. The best way of countering them is for mainstream parties to deliver in government. Starmer, with his ‘flexible’ ideology, knows this only too well, and so, I suspect, does Merz.
So back to the new German government. It is early days but Merz is rightly giving up on Trump (not America) – indeed he has been undiplomatically rude, wants to strengthen Europe’s defence unlike his vacillating predecessor, Scholz, and will focus on growing the German economy whilst tightening up immigration. Just being decisive is a good start.
Trump may well be heading for a backlash in his treatment of Europe. He is at peak power and there is only one route from here and that is downwards. Transactional politics works both ways… A rejuvenated Germany led by the CDU/CSU, a reinvented, patriotic Labour Party in the UK and more determination from the likes of France, Italy and others, all spending more on defence, may just be the boost that Europe needs and long overdue.
Every cloud has a silver lining so thank you Donald Trump. But the next four years cannot come quickly enough…
Trump is awful. A liar and that is not a word to be used lightly. Yesterday, he gave a press conference accusing Ukraine of starting the war with Russia, that the US has given US$500 billion in aid to Ukraine when it is closer to US$100 billion in direct, mainly military aid which benefits many US industries. He also commented that Zelenskyy ‘s approval rating is 4% when it is 57% and parroted Putin’s propaganda online questioning the authenticity of Zelenskyy ‘s rule.
Listen to the brilliant podcast ‘The Rest is History’ on Chamberlain negotiating away the Sudetenland with Hitler without the Czechs present at the infamous Munich conference in 1938. The similarity with Trump/Putin/Ukraine is uncanny as America sits down to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe have been invited to participate.
What does Putin have on Trump except a psychological hold on Trump’s love of strong, violent anti-democratic leaders?
Zelenskyy knows who his friends are and they don’t currently reside in the White House…
This blog’s prediction that Trump wouldn’t be as bad as many critics feared is looking somewhat shaky currently.
Trump’s Ukraine comments come on top of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at a security conference, guess where, in Munich…, claiming the biggest threat to Europe came from within (lack of freedom of speech) rather than Putin. Try telling that to the relatives of murdered opponents of Putin in Russia or the suffering people of Ukraine.
Of course, Trump and Vance have a point in demanding that Europe stands up for itself versus Russia rather than the US always bailing it out. It is a policy articulated by many previous US presidents and wrongly ignored. No longer. Trump’s lasting legacy may be to unite Europe militarily, although it may take a while as they row about European boots on the ground to keep a future peace in Ukraine.
The US is now an amoral, possibly an immoral country politically. Everything is transactional. There is no sense the current Administration believes democratic values trump authoritarian rule. In fact, it is the reverse. Europe (ex the far-right) better learn to live without an ally across the Atlantic for the time being.
America voted for America First, not Putin, Xi, or any other quasi dictator first. Perhaps American voters do not care, but they will eventually find out the two aims are incompatible. Let’s hope it is not too late by then.
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