It could have been worse for the Tories. They are mostly not safe anywhere but clung on in Uxbridge, where the single issue of extending the Ultra Low Emissions Zone saved them.

But across the three by-elections, the Tories’ share of the vote dropped by 21% in line with polls. It is not a reflection on Sunak, more popular than his Party, but austerity followed by a failing, divisive Brexit, followed by the chaotic amorality of Johnson, followed by the car-crash premiership of Truss. As this blog has written several times, Sunak’s competent premiership has come too late to rescue this discredited, over-long period of Tory rule.

Voters have had enough… Tories are mostly not safe anywhere...

The simple question to ask voters after 13 years is, do you feel the country is in a better place than in 2010? On current evidence, the answer is resoundingly no, even if there are some well-hidden achievements along the way.

But the Westminster bubble grinds on, turning its excoriating gaze onto Labour (the LibDems can be parked for another day). What do they stand for? Will the economy be safe in their hands? How green will they be and at what cost? How will they improve public services when there is no money? How will they deal with trade unions and their left-wing generally? Will they cuddle up to the EU and, if so, make a meaningful pact with it? Ultimately, is Starmer political enough? All legitimate questions, but today, they miss the point.

It is anybody but the Tories and Labour remain on course to win the next General Election, probably with an overall majority. In fact, in some ways, the results are extra bad news for the Tories in that the London result will encourage Starmer’s safety first strategy. It doesn’t really matter whether he gains power through enthusiasm or stay-at-home Tory voters. The die has been cast.

As for the Conservative Party? They will have some real soul-searching to do in Opposition. Will they move to the Right? Probably, if their membership and some unpleasant right-wing factions have anything to do with it. But the country is screaming out for a sensible centre-right alternative, and this is where this Party should lie, like it used to, if it is to oust a future Labour government quickly.

If there is one thing that would drive this deeply anti-Brexit blog into the arms of Brexiteers, it would be the rise of what appears to be soft fascism across Europe.

The outlook does not look good. The far-right are prospering everywhere.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s hard right coalition led by her arch-conservative Brothers of Italy party took power last October and is now in the process of trying to impose its conservative moral values on the population. For example, as reported in the Financial Times yesterday, they do not believe same sex couples should raise children. Last week, the birth certificate of a son born to a lesbian couple was annulled by a Padova city prosecutor with backing from the minister for family and birth rates. The interior ministry has ordered city mayors to stop automatically issuing birth certificates recognising same-sex couples as children’s legal parents, leading to lengthy legal disputes. This is only the start, one suspects, of a further erosion of gay rights.

Europe’s worrying drift to the far-right…

In France, the National Rally under Marine Le Pen has hit 24% in the polls. And this rise will only be further fuelled by the riots taking place there. She leads opinion polls in her response to them and is preparing yet another run, her fourth, at the presidency in 2027. Nobody is betting that next time, she isn’t in with a strong chance of winning.

In Germany, the hard-right, Putin sympathising AfD has hit 18% in the polls, achieving third place and snapping at the heels of the Social Democrats. In Sweden, the hard-right Sweden Democrats are in third place at 18%, and its equivalent in Spain, the Vox Party, are in a similar position. Then, in Hungary, Orban and his Fidesz party, who have governed since 2010, continue to gradually erode press freedoms and the independence of the judiciary, flouting the EU in the process.

There are various factors driving this trend. Immigration, inflation, weak economies, and expensive green policies are all a boost to anti-establishment, populist parties, even if, in the end, they are usually far worse at governing than moderates. The implosion of centre-right parties is also helping drive politics to the extremes.

But for all the frustrations of modern life today, there is no excuse for embracing extremism, particularly with Putin on your doorstep.

Wearingly, and with some success, hard-right, populists have never given up, even when they initially lose at the ballot-box. Whether it is Le Pen in France or even Trump in the US, it is a constant whack-a-mole game to defeat them. Democrats everywhere cannot let their guard down.

Europe certainly benefits from the largely moderating influence of the UK. It would have been invaluable if we had remained a member of the EU. We have much work to do to help keep our neighbours on a centrist path, even if nowadays from the sidelines.

Yesterday was good for the Tories. Last week’s departure of Boris Johnson from Parliament was followed by a resounding acceptance of the Privilege’s Committee’s recommendations. He didn’t even get to keep his parliamentary pass. 118 Tory MPs voted in favour of the report. It should have been more but at least it gives Rishi Sunak a breathing space to define his premiership, free from the antics of at least one of his predecessors.

Today’s news was less good, however. The UK’s inflation rate remained at 8.7% with core inflation actually rising from 6.8% to 7.1%. The equivalent figures are 6 per cent in France, 6.3 per cent in Germany, 7.1 per cent across the whole of the EU and 2.7 per cent in the US, using the most comparable measure, according to the Financial Times.

Stubbornly high inflation is causing an electoral headache for the government.

Interest rates will rise on Thursday by at least 25bps to 4.75% and the squeals of mortgage pain will be heard across the country.

The problem for Sunak is that his five pledges which, statistically at least, mostly seemed possible to achieve just a few months ago do not appear so any longer. The squeeze on the UK economy will have to carry on for longer than expected and he may miss his 5% end-year inflation target. NHS waiting lists have risen recently. Debt will rise as rates rise. Ironies of ironies, the only priority he has had some success on is ‘small boats’ with crossings down 20% so far this year.

Labour has yet to fully convince on the economy, but it is reining in spending promises and Rachel Reeves, the Shadow Chancellor, is increasingly coming across as highly competent. Combined with the shenanigans over Johnson and grim inflation news, that growing sense the Tories have been in power too long, and it is time for a change, has been reinforced.

Sunak’s logical route out of this mess was progress on his key priorities, but today that seems harder to achieve. Add in positive news for Labour out of Scotland, and the swingometer between a 1992 versus 1997 general election result is now more heavily leaning towards the latter.

We all know it is probably too late. The increasingly impressive Rishi Sunak has taken over a tired, divided Party and tried to give it some shape. Competent economic management, stronger international relations, a better deal with the EU over Northern Ireland are all laudable. But after 14 years many of the initiatives are simply about undoing the errors of previous Tory administrations. Against this backdrop, the desire for change, albeit with relatively tepid support for Starmer and his Labour Party, is too great.

A chance to demonstrate a break with the past…

One other factor drives down support for the Tories; a palpable sense of corruption. Dodgy peerages, dodgy donations, dodgy appointments, some unsavoury people hanging around the Party’s fringe. There is a sense of entitlement where one rule applies to ‘little people’ and another for those in power. This perhaps drives a belief that the Tories’ time is up more than anything. It is certainly not solely economics or the state of public services because few voters currently think Labour would be much better.

So it is really important that Sunak demonstrates new integrity in his government and a break with the past and that is why the last few days have been so helpful.

Johnson has gone and, make no mistake, will not return either this side or the other of a general election. Seen off by the Privileges Committee (note, a majority of Tory Party MPs overseeing its deliberations) and his resignation honours list, he has gone blustering into the night. He represents a shameful episode in the country’s governance and the Tory Party’s judgement of appointing him in the first place. Undoubtedly talented, he never had the moral compass to be successful as PM.

Sunak’s row with him has gone public and that allows Sunak to demonstrate a fresh start. It allows him to restore the principles of good government and that will provide the opportunity for the electorate to take a second look if the Tory Party can show discipline under his leadership.

After the past week, Sunak only has to sort out high inflation, negligible economic growth, rising debt, rising NHS waiting lists and a flotilla of small boats, and he is in with a chance…

The most dramatic new policy from a Labour government will not be an annual £28 billion invested in the green economy. Neither will it be greater workers’ rights.

Whatever Keir Starmer says in advance of the general election, it will be the gradual, stealthy embrace of the EU as though we never left. The political commentator Ian Dunt said re-joining the EU is a believable ten year project. I agree. But little will be said about this direction of travel in the early years of a first Labour administration.

A stealthy embrace of the EU will take place under Labour…

There is no point in holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future. We are denying it to the Scots and certainly don’t want to waste energy and political capital by winding up the angry sub-40% who still think Brexit was a good idea. Neither does joining the single market work today if it means undermining the one salient feature of Brexit, however pointless in practice, that we have control of our borders.

No. Driven by Russia’s aggression, we will align our military forces more closely with the EU as it, in turn, starts to create a single defence capability. We will participate fully in the Horizon research project, fully align financial services regulation, negotiate visa-free access to Europe (visas are due for UK citizens from 2024), and even negotiate pet passports. There will be no bonfire of EU laws as promised and already partly reneged on by the Conservatives.

None of this will be an obstacle to positive post Brexit initiatives of greater efforts in training our home-grown workforce, and as part of this, it is common sense that migrant workers can’t be employed for 20% less than the usual rate for the job. This is already Labour Party policy.

A good Labour government can have its cake and eat it. Domestic reforms to improve national productivity whilst aligning ourselves more closely with the EU again. And if this is successful, the possibility of re-joining the EU on a ten year view.

Quietly, slowly, patiently, the greatest self-inflicted damage to the UK’s political and economic standing will be reversed.

Michel Barnier interviewed on ITV this week said the UK can return to the EU anytime. The Conservative Party, metaphorically turning in its grave, will be a bystander in this process when it eventually happens.

The mood music just isn’t getting any better for the Tories. As Sunak tries to look to the future under his improved leadership, he is dragged back into the past by the Covid enquiry.

Under the formidable chair, Baroness Hallet, the enquiry has asked for all Boris Johnson’s fully unredacted WhatsApp messages and diary entries. The government is resisting and may go to the courts to prevent having to hand them over. They have until 4 pm today.

Standards need to rise in how government is conducted

Johnson’s disastrous reign still overshadows the Tories. One also suspects there is some really embarrassing material in his texts, perhaps involving a bunch of today’s ministers, including even the PM himself. Oh dear. If ministers, incredibly, end up legally challenging the government’s own Covid enquiry, it will be another nail in its coffin.

It takes me back to Peter Hennessy’s fine writings on constitutional government. He documented admiringly how Thatcher ran her administration by the book, even the Falklands war, through committees with civil servants present and minutes taken.

The rot started with Blair and his ‘sofa government’ and has continued in particular via Cameron and Johnson. Decisions are taken in secret by a small cabal of ministers and advisers with no accountability. One understands there are more social media channels today and Covid set severe limits on gatherings, but this is no excuse for government by text.

The lack of a written constitution means that the erosion of proper procedures in policy making has continued unchecked and undocumented.

Time to put an end to it and get back to fully, ‘by the book’, publicly accountable government. Perhaps Starmer, as a former Director of Public Prosecutions, can make a start.

In the meantime, the heavy anchor of Johnson and his florid informal musings (never put in writing what you don’t want to see in public!) will continue to drag Sunak’s government under water.

Only today’s Tory Party could consider Rishi Sunak ‘left-wing’. Apparently, soft on immigration, high taxes, and culture wars, this Thatcherite, pro-Brexit PM is seen as betraying the Tory cause by many right-wing grass-roots members and some former and current cabinet ministers.

Ludicrous.

The Tory Party has historically been so successful because it was always ideologically flexible. It supported established institutions and positioned itself as mildly socially conservative but not always (Cameron/gay marriage). In aiming for a smaller state and lower taxes, it was consistent in putting lowering deficits first, knowing nothing should get in the way of a well-run, slightly redistributive economy when finances allowed. Conservatives were always about ‘the economy stupid’.

Well, not now. Brexit, a failed attempt at immigration controls damaging growth in the process, a brief period of kamikaze tax cuts adding to a soaring deficit, pushing up already rising interest rates, have together been economically ruinous.  Add a good dose of confected culture wars and attacks on the judiciary and sovereignty of Parliament and Tory right-wing recklessness is complete. Thatcher would never have stood for it, cue Sunak.

Sunak has come in to restore economic competence and competence more generally, getting some of that famed ideological flexibility back into the Tory system.

It will last only until the next General Election.

The post-election positioning is beginning now. The formation of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, which held its first conference recently demanding more say for members (code for bring back Johnson), will probably be influential post an election. And more member involvement nearly always signals a further drift to the right. Then, we have had manifestos from leading Tories outlined at a right-wing, National Conservatism conference last week, not least by the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. She is clearly positioning herself as the next leader, blatantly criticising cabinet colleagues on immigration. She has no sense of loyalty or public service, and we await her second ‘on a matter of principle’ resignation if her speeding fine doesn’t get her first…

Last, but not least, there is some evidence according to Anthony Seldon’s book on Johnson, (a highly readable insight into the chaos of Johnson’s premiership) that selection to join the parliamentary candidates’ list has favoured pro-Brexit, culture war warriors. That would drive the next diminished MP in-take further to the right if this was the case.

The Party’s Right is therefore flexing its muscles and one nation Tories remain on the side-lines. As ever, they are too soft, too unfocused. They simply hand-wring and hope for the best.

All the indications are that after a heavy election defeat, Sunak will step down, and the Tories will march rightwards. If this happens, the next 10 years spell disaster for the Conservative Party but also excitement for those willing to fill an increasingly vacated centre-right ground in British politics.

The analysis has been done, and there are no silver linings in very dark clouds for the Conservative Party, except perhaps for the Coronation dominating headlines. A loss of over 1000 council seats, surpassing even the gloomiest of expectations, was bad enough, but it was the distribution of votes that should really set alarm bells ringing.

No silver linings for the Conservative Party…

There is now a firm anti-Tory alliance in place, ruthlessly ejecting Tories wherever they reside. The Liberal Democrats in the South, Labour in the North, with the break between the Brexit voting public and the Conservative Party clearly evident. Add a deeply unhelpful sprinkling of Green Party successes, and the rout was complete. For those saying there is a route back from this for the Tories, they should remember these results exclude London and Scotland where Labour is resurgent.

So, why, under the highly competent Sunak, have the Conservatives not steadied their ship electorally? Quite simply, it is down to two factors. The Tories’ often lamentable record in office and increasing noise from their right-wing.

Excessive austerity contributing to a Brexit that has failed to deliver is part of the backdrop. Add the leadership disarray courtesy of Johnson and Truss, then record taxes, failing public services, and the seeming abandonment of tangible levelling up initiatives, and the sorry picture is complete. The refrain that we now live in a country where nothing works is lethal for the Tories’ prospects.

And yet, their response? Many in the Conservative Party think a lurch to the Right is required. A new organisation, the Conservative Democratic Organisation, led by the ludicrous, failed ex UKIP and Tory MEP, David Campbell Bannerman, calls for more Party democracy, the ousting of Sunak and the re-coronation of Johnson. An international conference in London involving right-wing politicians, including Suella Braverman, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Lord David Frost, spells further trouble. As if, in the face of failing public services, a call today for a low tax economy (a laudable aim perhaps in the long-term) will win over red-wall voters? And then, in a bid to fan cultural war flames, you have the likes of Tory Vice-Chair, Lee Anderson, whose anti-woke utterings are guaranteed to drive moderate Tory voters into the arms of the LibDems.

As the wise, moderate, ex-Tory MP David Gauke has commentated, a hard right, low-tax, socially conservative party makes sense in a system of proportional representation, probably guaranteed a fairly consistent 25-30% share of votes. But not in a first past-the-post system.

The Tories seem lost and forces are building to remove them at any cost. In Opposition, the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place and the runes do not look good. Meanwhile, Sunak has to keep the show on the road. All Tories, right, left and centre, who once remembered the importance of loyalty, should give him their backing if, for nothing else, to minimise the scale of defeat in 2024.

At one level, it is incredibly frustrating. How does the world’s only superpower with a population of 330 million present a choice of Biden versus Trump for a second time? They will have a combined age of 158 at the next presidential election.

Of course, events may intervene to change the players. Biden will be 81 and has a less than robust medical history. He looks and sounds frail although this may be deceptive. His stutter accounts for a good amount of his verbal wobbles. As for Trump, he has many potential legal battles ahead, all more serious than the Stormy Daniels one. My bet is that he also has more health issues than publicly acknowledged.

Still, as Biden declares his 2024 candidacy, and Trump currently leads the Republican nominee pack (but don’t count out DeSantis…), it looks like a re-run battle for the soul of America.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President…

What is at stake?

• Ukraine. Biden will support their war with Russia to the end. Trump, Putin’s friend, will not. Neither will Trump defend NATO’s role
• Democracy. Republicans have introduced over 150 restrictive election bills at State level and another 27 election interference bills increasing partisan involvement in electoral outcomes. A Trump victory would boost attempts to limit mail-in voting, strengthen voter ID laws at the expense of minorities, shorten early voting and eliminate same-day voter registration. One only has to look at the Fox News versus Dominion lawsuit, which led to Fox paying $800 million in damages for knowingly misleading viewers on the integrity of the last presidential vote, to understand the fragility of democracy in the US
• Broader civil rights. Biden has introduced laws to protect same-sex marriage in the face of an increasingly right-wing, politicised Supreme Court. He has introduced laws to protect access to reproductive health care and also issued an Executive Order to protect access to abortion care after the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade. All these initiatives are highly vulnerable to a Trump victory
• Climate. Biden introduced the largest ever federal climate plan leading to a huge growth in green technology innovation. Over 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases will consequently be removed from the atmosphere by 2030 setting the globe well on its way to reaching emissions targets. This would almost certainly be reversed under Trump

The list goes on. Nobody would say Biden is remotely perfect and one could argue his solutions to many problems too often involve expanding the State at federal level. But, my, the alternative would be a disaster.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President. Never Trump or any of his extremist cohorts.

Sat recuperating from a recent leg injury, dreading a quiet news day on a Friday despite much daytime snoozing, and up pops the Deputy PM’s resignation.

Oh dear. Sunak has made a reasonable fist of being PM so far, even closing the polling gap with Labour. And now this.

The problem for Sunak, of course, is that he has to take responsibility for all the Tories’ 13 years in power, and he can’t escape his party’s past, particularly when it incoporates five often chaotic leaders.

Sunak has the makings of being a highly competent PM long-term, but got the job too late. Rebuilding international relations, a new NI protocol with the EU, and mostly sensible economic policies are all pluses. But set against these are clumsily managed public sector strikes with deep rooted causes, an obsession with ‘small boats’ driven by the Right, an NHS/social care crisis, depleted local government services, and the behaviour of several of his colleagues generally.

Despite a commitment to higher standards in public life, it is this last issue that is causing crucial damage right now. Raab is his third cabinet departure, and Sunak is starting to look careless. At the very least, the trade-offs Sunak made to become PM seem more and more costly, and he still has the grim Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, at his side.

The baggage is heavy. Can we honestly say we feel better after over a decade of Tory rule? No, and that is what will do for the government in the end.

This blog is increasingly critical of Labour. Few believe a Labour government will be much better, not knowing what they stand for. What are their guiding principles? What are their core policies? Some of their potential ministers are already starting to grate.

But with today’s events, it again matters less and less. Sunak can’t outrun a tsunami. It is time for a change, and voters know it.