The Gorton and Denton by-election result handing a convincing victory to the Greens with Reform UK coming second will be a joy to many on the far-left and far-right. It creates despair amongst moderates.

A bad night for the political centre ground…

Let’s start with Labour’s defeat. The Party got what it deserved. The soap opera over whether Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, should stand and the potential threat to Starmer’s leadership just exasperates voters. Trying to knife the leader of an underperforming government gives the impression of chaos and division. It hardly reassures that the nation’s future is in safe hands.

But Labour‘s real problem is the same one all mainstream parties have. Over promising and under delivering. Add to that, Labour has the additional issue of a huge parliamentary majority on just 34% of the vote. Promising better public services but no core tax rises, delaying tough decisions through policy reviews or U-turns, equivocating on the Middle East which is a sensitive issue in many Labour areas including this one is not a recipe for victory. Nothing seems to change.

The Greens and Reform UK are the beneficiaries of voter disillusionment, certainly not the Tories who with just 600 votes lost their deposit. Tax the rich, legalise drugs, take a firm stance on Israel all played well for the Greens in this constituency. ‘Green’ issues themselves actually played a small role in their campaign. Zack Polanski, the Green’s leader, for all his charisma, is starting to sound and behave like a traditional politician.

As for Reform. An unpleasant candidate, an unpleasant party, did well but not well enough. Immigration is not a catch all issue it seems. Farage whinges about sectarianism and cheating. Who can be more sectarian than his party? It confirms the view that with tactical voting focusing on anybody but Farage, Reform will not form the next government. The belief it has peaked has just gained further validity.

Voters want instant solutions not triangulation and delay. Too many lives are either not touched or disadvantaged by mainstream political parties and patience is running out. Government is more complicated than the solutions offered by political extremes but when Labour and the Tories have such a tin ear to the needs of the electorate, who can blame voters for reaching out for something different.

Starmer will cling on probably beyond May despite the media’s hysteria. But the odds of him surviving are getting longer. The Tory leader Badenoch will stick to her strategy of aping Reform without sufficient focus on the economy. Why? She doesn’t have the patience for the hard slog of slow but steady progress over 10 years. The LibDems are nowhere.

Populism, it seems, is in safe hands even if by default…

You just despair. All we wanted from Starmer was solid technocratic competence with a bit of integrity thrown in. We have tried charisma. It doesn’t work.

And crucially, if Starmer’s government was delivering it would have put a lid on the populism of Farage and Reform UK. The mistaken appointment of Mandelson would have been a sideshow.

So here we are with Starmer in crisis. Endless U-turns as Reeves gets the economy wrong, reforms to planning regulations, benefits, social care stalled. The government is going to miss many of its policy targets. The Epstein/Mandelson fiasco, which hardly fills you with confidence in vetting procedures, just adds to the narrative. But then hindsight is a great thing…

There is no alternative. Labour MPs should let Starmer get on with the job…

However, it is the response of fellow Labour MPs which is most depressing. Rayner, Streeting and Burnham on manoeuvres, none of which would improve the fortunes of this government. Spineless backbenchers running away from necessary reforms now plunging the knife into Starmer often as an act of leftwing revenge.

McSweeney, Starmer’s now former Chief of Staff, who advised on Mandelson’s appointment, is the scapegoat but that may not be enough. Labour currently has a death wish and seems unfit to govern as MPs put personal ambition and score settling ahead of stable government.

They should rally round Starmer and stop feeding the excitable agenda of the media. Yes, he has made many mistakes but can learn from them. He is good on overseas stuff. His main fault is that like Rishi Sunak, he is just not political enough. There are worse crimes.

The public wants steady government, not psycho dramas. They reach for Reform UK only in desperation.

If Labour MPs keeping feeding the narrative that Starmer is on his last legs, the Party should not be in office and deserves everything electorally that will come its way. But do the public deserve the ensuing chaos?

Kemi Badenoch just isn’t good enough. She will keep her job as there is currently no one else to take her place with the demise of Jenrick but that is hardly a ringing endorsement.

To be fair, Badenoch’s performance at PM’s Question Time has improved but you could hardly have an easier target than Starmer’s government. As the fallout from the Mandelson/Epstein saga gains momentum, life will only get easier, temporarily, for the Leader of the Opposition.

But ‘temporarily’ is the key word. Badenoch is arrogant and doesn’t listen. She believes keeping the Tories close to the hard right is the way forward, fighting culture wars to fend off Reform UK whilst making what should be a relentless focus on economic competence a sideshow. One feels for the impressive Shadow Chancellor, Mel Stride.

So over to the launch of Prosper UK last week. Led by Sir Andy Street, a former Birmingham Tory Mayor and successful business leader of John Lewis, and Baroness Davidson, the former Scottish Tory leader, the best national leader the Tories never had, it offers a home to moderate Tories with a relentless focus on the economy. It aims to help Badenoch, not replace her.

I was at its launch. There were at least 250 supporters there. Whilst many familiar faces dated from pre-Brexit times, I was struck by new and younger faces. Street and Davidson outlined their appeal to seven million homeless Tory moderates. Economic competence, a focus on aspiration generally and business in particular, closer alignment with Europe, if nothing else to protect our security and defence, all made blindingly common sense.

Badenoch’s response? She dismissed the initiative, believing she is on a roll as the Tories hit a dizzying 20 per cent in the polls. There is no room for moderate centrists in her view while she obsesses about Reform’s agenda.

Former Tories will continue to drift to Reform UK or the underperforming Libdems as Badenoch flunks an easy lesson in how to land a ball in the back of the net.