America on the edge…

The political news from the US is thoroughly depressing. An increasingly erratic Donald Trump, profane and peddling untruths, has closed the gap with Kamala Harris. She is now only 2% ahead in the popular vote and, more importantly, behind in 5 of the 7 swing states. Admittedly the polls can’t be relied upon when the vote is so close, particularly at state level where it is really 50/50 across all 7 states.

Trump closes in on Harris…

How can this be? Two excellent journalists from the Financial Times, Janan Ganesh and Edward Luce, seem to have the answer. Trump stands for something which reassures even relatively moderate voters. Nobody can say they don’t know what they are voting for when casting their ballot. Voters may not like Trump’s personality, but he has a clear edge on the economy and immigration and he is seen to be able to put a protective arm round a country which feels somewhat beleaguered. This is despite the fact economic activity is actually booming and inflation falling, courtesy of many of Biden’s policies. As for issues like Putin/Ukraine. They don’t get a look in.

Harris on the other hand is vague. Undoubtedly an improvement in voters’ eyes on Biden, she is too ill defined on a range of policy issues, has no convincing answer to the impact of past high inflation (who could?) and is seen as weak on immigration. Her stance on abortion where she rightly has a strong lead may not save her. Overall, a bit of this and a bit of that policy-wise is not enough at the margin for such a polarised electorate. No amount of effort from Barak Obama and celebrity endorsements (please stop, they only antagonise the electorate, conforming to Republican accusations of elitist Democrat stereotypes) seems enough.

So, what would a Trump presidency involve. Here are a few educated guesses…

• Capitulation to Putin on Ukraine threatening the whole of Eastern Europe
• The possible fatal undermining of NATO
• Encouragement for China to invade Taiwan
• Trump escaping court on a range of criminal cases
• The US deficit soaring by US$7.5 trillion as tax cuts for the rich fail to ‘trickle down’
• A final end to the benefits of globalisation as US trade tariffs are imposed, stoking inflation in the process
• Environmental safeguards torn up, speeding up the impact of global warming
• Billionaires increasing their undue influence on politics
• Another swing to the Right for an increasingly polarised, unaccountable Supreme Court
• No prospect for gun controls, even a loosening of what few already exist
• Restrictions on abortion creeping in at a federal level
• The real prospect of a phony civil war between states although, to be fair, this might happen under the Democrats

The US is such a blessed country with so much talent but feels on a steep decline. The electorate is gloomy and, in this mood, the character of their president and the intentional or unintentional consequences of another four years of Trump do not seem to matter. When buyer’s regret sets in, it will be too late for the US and the rest of us.

Fingers crossed that, against the odds, Harris totters over the line…