None of the Tory leadership candidates will be the next Prime Minister

Why are they standing? Leadership of the Opposition is a thankless task particularly 10 years’ out… Hope is everything that the Tories’ fortunes may be restored faster, counting on a Labour blow-up, but the main reason is a belief that the country will accept the need for a viable Opposition at some stage in the future, whenever that is. One party governance in a democracy never works. Just check in with Labour (1997-2010) and the Tories (2010-2024).

Priti Patel: a well-deserved elimination from the Tory leadership race…

But the Tories’ current leadership candidates are a motley crew with one or two exceptions, probably not a surprise when the six candidates are drawn from a talent pool of just 121 MPs. In the first round of elections announced this afternoon, Priti Patel has been eliminated and good riddance. A very poor Home Secretary appointed by Johnson who put Party before office and danced with Nigel Farage on the fringes of the Conservative Party conference as he was destroying it. Need we say more…

Of the rest, Kemi Badenoch, the bookies’ favourite, has achieved little in her ministerial career except gaining a reputation as a cultural warrior and ruffling the feathers of her parliamentary colleagues. Robert Jenrick has dodgy property business links to his name and has turned right-wing on immigration after sulking he didn’t get into a Sunak cabinet. That looks like a positive favour granted to him now. James Cleverly is not known for being, well, clever, but is a decent person if very much a stop-gap leader. That leaves Mel Stride, decent, smart, but wrong image and little following. Not a hope in hell. The most interesting character is the never knowingly undersold moderate, Tom Tugendhat. He would be by far the best option except for blotting his copy book by potentially committing himself to leaving the ECHR. When will the Left learn that there should be no compromise with the Right of the Conservative Party if there is any decent path back to power?

The main problem is the Tory membership decides who of the last two candidates should be the leader. It is like giving the vote to pupils to select their headteacher. Inappropriate. The hugely diminished Tory membership is not remotely representative of Tory voters and, if many have not cleared off to Reform, would like to. Think of their judgement. Duncan Smith over Clarke, Johnson over Hunt, Truss over Sunak. Only Cameron over Davis was remotely a bright spot, perhaps not with the benefit of hindsight. Who knows.

Whoever wins the Tory leadership, announced in November (what a tedious slog!), will have little influence on politics generally. But they could have influence over the Tory Party by giving the final choice of leader back to MPs.