They never learn. They never learn. The Party membership is to the right of ordinary Conservative voters and their final, decisive role in choosing the next leader (they vote between the last two leading candidates after MPs have chosen the shortlist) is likely to take the Tories into a cul-de-sac of their own making.
Who are the runners and riders in what (quite rightly) will probably be a lengthy leadership campaign but with no certainty of redemption at the end of it?
A poll of members today confirmed the current favourite is Kemi Badenoch. Why? She has no legislative achievements to her name, is unnecessarily aggressive, particularly with the media, and seems to have made her name by pursuing culture wars. Whilst her views may be sincerely held, that is hardly where the Tories are going to regain voters.
Nobody above is likely to be the next Prime Minister…
Then there is Suella Braverman. To the right even of the most die-hard Tory members although still attracting the votes of 16% of them, she has disgraced herself with an article just before the election damning the Tory election campaign and then this week with her homophobic rant. She is truly awful. Extreme, disloyal and with no sense of public service. The sooner she joins Reform, the better.
Right-wing Priti Patel, another former Home Secretary, is mooted to be standing but is not up to the job. Caught dancing with Farage last year, although now claiming he has no future in the Tory Party, she should perhaps dance off to Reform too.
Finally, on the Right, the smarmy, reinvented immigration hard-liner, Robert Jenrick, who left Sunak’s government in a sulk at not getting a full cabinet post, is simply not credible.
The moderate candidates so far are James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Victoria Atkins. All three are decent people but Cleverly will simply be a short-term, stop-gap leader and it doesn’t feel Atkins is quite ready for it. Tom Tugendhat is the best bet but is unlikely to clear the hurdle set by the Tory membership. Sadly, the estimable Jeremy Hunt has understandably ruled himself out of the contest.
A few points to note. The Tories lost most of their key southern seats to the LibDems. How the hell are they going to regain them by moving to the right? What’s left of the Tory parliamentary party is fairly centrist. Perhaps the membership will surprise us with a more moderate choice if enough have cleared off to Reform by the time of the vote. If the Tories embrace Farage/Reform in any way, it will be the permanent end of the Tory Party. If I were the LibDems, I would already be making plans now to entice moderate Tory MPs to join them if this unlikely occurrence happens. More on that in a future blog.
What is almost certain is the next Tory leader will not be the next Prime Minister. In fact the next leader, whilst fulfilling the important role of trying to hold the government to account, will largely be an irrelevance. Just ask William Hague.
Inside Right Politics 