That is if they survive, of course… Incredibly, the election continues to get worse for the Tories. The latest opinion polls, on average, have them winning just a hundred or so seats maximum with Labour’s majority being 250 plus. Reform UK may scrape a few seats, but only the LibDems seem to be the ones having some FUN. I won’t hear it against Ed Davey. His stunts are getting him publicity, and his role caring for his son has really resonated. They may surprise on the upside, adding to the Tories’ woes in the South/Southwest.
If they don’t self-destruct, the Tories become interesting again… on a 10 year view…
This blog feels the Tories will do a little better on the night as former Tory voters peer into the abyss and pull back from Reform. They will at least remain the second largest party, but it is pretty clear Labour is on course for a huge majority. The interest on election night will be less about the outcome and more about the scale of the Tories’ defeat and results in individual seats.
The Tories will be out of power for a generation and deservedly so. Attention will initially be on the new government and some actual policies, but Labour will have an opaque mandate, and over time the focus will switch to a decent Opposition holding the government to account.
So, back to the Tories. Despite relative moderates being well represented in parliament on most election outcomes, courtesy of its inglorious members, the Tory Party will almost certainly move to the Right. Moderate MPs, who are usually hopeless in leadership elections, will not be organised enough to block this and will get tripped up by the membership if they were. But therein lies electoral oblivion. A move back to centre ground beckons second time around on a long-term view. The question is who can be bothered to wait?
In the meantime, there is Farage/Reform. They will not merge with the Tories, and if they did, the Party would irrevocably split. Incidentally, if Boris Johnson tries his hand at leadership again, it would be the same result. No more Tory Party. Whilst new centre ground parties have a terrible record of succeeding, the total defenestration of the Tories would present unique territory for them to thrive.
So, on the basis that the electorate will want a competitive political landscape, attention will eventually turn back to the Tories or, if they self-annihilate, their successors. Whatever path is taken, the Opposition will probably have a good 10 years to even draw level.
Inside Right Politics 