Tories down but not out….

You can never write the Tories off. Despite growing pessimism surrounding their prospects at the next general election, in the past week or so there have been flickers of recovery. Perhaps it is not 1997 after all or at least it is too early to tell.

Sunak hits the ground running in Manchester…

The reasons for this slight recovery in the Tories’ prospects are three-fold:

• Renewed energy from Sunak. There might not seem a coherent philosophy around mooted announcements (from diluting green measures to mostly banning smoking…) but Sunak is certainly active and his ‘defend the car measures’ have struck a nerve. How angry Starmer must be that London’s ULEZ scheme denied Labour victory in Uxbridge! It has given the Tories new heart as they create cultural divides and plays to the narrative that Labour would be a statist, heavy-handed, interfering government. The Conservative Party Conference has been more upbeat than expected so far despite interventions from the likes of Liz Truss, and economic news is gradually getting better for the government. The one misstep has been the rumoured dropping of HS2 to Manchester whilst the Conservatives were assembling in… Manchester but the damage has been less than expected so far.
• Changes of policy from Labour. Dropping a clear pledge of investing £28bn in a green economy, refusing to reverse Conservative measures announced to date on watering down green initiatives and refusing to increase taxes generally whilst wanting to spend more makes them seem shifty and insecure. Add to this, the additional diluting of their attack on private schools and pledges on workers’ rights and you start to wonder what Labour stands for. The charge that in office they will ‘revert to type’ is strong when a vacuum appears. Starmer will have to up his game at his conference with clear policy announcements and an offer of hope and optimism combined with competence.
• LibDems miss an open goal again… It was just as well their conference was poorly covered. Refusing to commit to rejoining the EU when everyone knows that’s their belief, refusing to discuss any informal pact with Labour even though we know that is the case and then, in countering that, falling out with Labour in the mid-Beds by-election which in the process could give the Tories an unexpected victory, all points to the usual amateur-hour of LibDem politics.

Opinion polls have the Labour Party’s lead narrowing slightly. It may be too late for the Tories, and there are many obstacles ahead, but their ruthless focus on maintaining power is second to none. It had better go well for the Opposition next week as it gathers in Liverpool…