Time for a change is the only political theme this morning…

It could have been worse for the Tories. They are mostly not safe anywhere but clung on in Uxbridge, where the single issue of extending the Ultra Low Emissions Zone saved them.

But across the three by-elections, the Tories’ share of the vote dropped by 21% in line with polls. It is not a reflection on Sunak, more popular than his Party, but austerity followed by a failing, divisive Brexit, followed by the chaotic amorality of Johnson, followed by the car-crash premiership of Truss. As this blog has written several times, Sunak’s competent premiership has come too late to rescue this discredited, over-long period of Tory rule.

Voters have had enough… Tories are mostly not safe anywhere...

The simple question to ask voters after 13 years is, do you feel the country is in a better place than in 2010? On current evidence, the answer is resoundingly no, even if there are some well-hidden achievements along the way.

But the Westminster bubble grinds on, turning its excoriating gaze onto Labour (the LibDems can be parked for another day). What do they stand for? Will the economy be safe in their hands? How green will they be and at what cost? How will they improve public services when there is no money? How will they deal with trade unions and their left-wing generally? Will they cuddle up to the EU and, if so, make a meaningful pact with it? Ultimately, is Starmer political enough? All legitimate questions, but today, they miss the point.

It is anybody but the Tories and Labour remain on course to win the next General Election, probably with an overall majority. In fact, in some ways, the results are extra bad news for the Tories in that the London result will encourage Starmer’s safety first strategy. It doesn’t really matter whether he gains power through enthusiasm or stay-at-home Tory voters. The die has been cast.

As for the Conservative Party? They will have some real soul-searching to do in Opposition. Will they move to the Right? Probably, if their membership and some unpleasant right-wing factions have anything to do with it. But the country is screaming out for a sensible centre-right alternative, and this is where this Party should lie, like it used to, if it is to oust a future Labour government quickly.