Sunak’s problem: the Conservative Party

The analysis has been done, and there are no silver linings in very dark clouds for the Conservative Party, except perhaps for the Coronation dominating headlines. A loss of over 1000 council seats, surpassing even the gloomiest of expectations, was bad enough, but it was the distribution of votes that should really set alarm bells ringing.

No silver linings for the Conservative Party…

There is now a firm anti-Tory alliance in place, ruthlessly ejecting Tories wherever they reside. The Liberal Democrats in the South, Labour in the North, with the break between the Brexit voting public and the Conservative Party clearly evident. Add a deeply unhelpful sprinkling of Green Party successes, and the rout was complete. For those saying there is a route back from this for the Tories, they should remember these results exclude London and Scotland where Labour is resurgent.

So, why, under the highly competent Sunak, have the Conservatives not steadied their ship electorally? Quite simply, it is down to two factors. The Tories’ often lamentable record in office and increasing noise from their right-wing.

Excessive austerity contributing to a Brexit that has failed to deliver is part of the backdrop. Add the leadership disarray courtesy of Johnson and Truss, then record taxes, failing public services, and the seeming abandonment of tangible levelling up initiatives, and the sorry picture is complete. The refrain that we now live in a country where nothing works is lethal for the Tories’ prospects.

And yet, their response? Many in the Conservative Party think a lurch to the Right is required. A new organisation, the Conservative Democratic Organisation, led by the ludicrous, failed ex UKIP and Tory MEP, David Campbell Bannerman, calls for more Party democracy, the ousting of Sunak and the re-coronation of Johnson. An international conference in London involving right-wing politicians, including Suella Braverman, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Lord David Frost, spells further trouble. As if, in the face of failing public services, a call today for a low tax economy (a laudable aim perhaps in the long-term) will win over red-wall voters? And then, in a bid to fan cultural war flames, you have the likes of Tory Vice-Chair, Lee Anderson, whose anti-woke utterings are guaranteed to drive moderate Tory voters into the arms of the LibDems.

As the wise, moderate, ex-Tory MP David Gauke has commentated, a hard right, low-tax, socially conservative party makes sense in a system of proportional representation, probably guaranteed a fairly consistent 25-30% share of votes. But not in a first past-the-post system.

The Tories seem lost and forces are building to remove them at any cost. In Opposition, the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place and the runes do not look good. Meanwhile, Sunak has to keep the show on the road. All Tories, right, left and centre, who once remembered the importance of loyalty, should give him their backing if, for nothing else, to minimise the scale of defeat in 2024.