Sigh… it is time for another set of predictions for the year ahead. It may be age but it feels trickier than ever to work out what is likely to happen. The outcome of some events such as the Ukraine war may influence almost everything.
But, first, this blog’s predictions for 2022. Their accuracy will allow you to decide whether to read further.
Well, whilst not a vintage year, five out of seven were correct although one, along with almost all commentators, was spectacularly wrong. Let’s get that out of the way first.
‘Russia will not invade Ukraine’. Umm… This was made on the understanding there was no long-term upside to taking this initiative and it would ultimately uncover the weakness of Putin. The latter point may be correct but not much compensation for the suffering Ukrainians.
Second, in the US, the Democrats would get a pasting in the mid-terms. I am happy to get this wrong particularly as Republicans in the House of Representatives are currently showing their increasing extremism. They have only just elected a Speaker from their own ranks after 15 ballots who is totally in hock to MAGA fanatics.
Time to move to the correct predictions. In the UK, Johnson would survive 2022 only on the proviso no further revelations came out of ‘Partygate’ or another scandal appeared. Well as the blog was completed further scandals from ‘Partygate’ did appear and then another fib from No. 10 caught up with Johnson and he was gone.
Fourth, Johnson’s calculated gamble on relaxing Covid restrictions would succeed. Despite Johnson’s ultimate demise, this was correct. Politics is so unfair!
Internationally, fifth, sixth and seventh were also correct. Macron would win the French Presidential election; Bolsonaro would lose his in Brazil. In the US, despite Biden’s frailties, the future would not lie with Trump but rather a more calculating political, far-right Republican. Cue Ron deSantis, Governor of Florida…
So now to 2023. Here we go…
In UK politics, there will be no election this year (an easy prediction!) but no recovery in the Tories’ fortunes either. The damage of three PMs in 2022, a recession, tax rises, a failing NHS and public sector strikes after 13 years of Tory rule will stick in voters’ minds. Whilst competent, Sunak’s style as yet does not quite resonate but deep down most Tories know the return of Johnson is no solution either, and it will not happen. On the other hand, Starmer will need to stand for something more concrete as the economy will undoubtedly start to recover in the second half of the year.
In the US, subject to health considerations (a big if), Biden will run again. Otherwise look to Buttigeig, Vice-President Harris or one of the Democrat’s successful Senators/Governors such as Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota or Gavin Newsom from California. On the Republican side, if he runs, deSantis will trump Trump.
The Ukraine war will last throughout the year. There can be no escape for Putin, trapped by nationalists on his Right and the West’s surprisingly robust, united opposition. What further drives the West is the fear of China’s threat to Taiwan. After their Covid debacle China won’t invade imminently but the threat is increasing.
There are no significant elections globally except in Turkey where one would expect the wily President Erdogan to win yet again. Although it won’t be easy this time round with all the major cities held by the Opposition.
Lastly, for optimists, in the UK, we have the pomp and ceremony of a Coronation in May and are hosting Eurovision in the same month. This blog comfortably predicts they will be happy events despite the stormy backdrop to both of them and might just help us get through a challenging year.
A happy and successful 2023 to you all.
Inside Right Politics 