Tories in no mood for technocrats…

As we come to the end of an excruciating Tory leadership campaign, two thoughts come to mind; this is no way to choose a Prime Minister and populism is still alive and kicking in the Tory Party despite the painful experience of Johnson.

Truss’s simple populist messages outweigh Sunak’s technocratic competency

Rishi Sunak has fought a brave, some would say foolhardy campaign, burning bridges as he lashes out at Truss’s incoherent and possibly dangerous economic policies. He has told the Tory membership what they don’t want to hear; no major tax cuts until we can afford them, problems with Johnson’s leadership and home truths about what government can actually accomplish in the face of horrendous challenges. He is bright, has all the numbers at his fingertips, and has largely avoided (except for the odd clumsy intervention) an obsession with an anti-woke agenda. He has also decided not to treat the EU or indeed Macron in particular as a possible enemy. This is a recipe for defeat! Sunak is simply too conventional, too practical and too technocratic for Tory members’ appetite. They want more red meat. It has also led him to be inconsistent at times (VAT cut on fuel for example) as he desperately chases implacable Tory members’ votes, and this has been the fundamental weakness of his campaign.

Liz Truss on the other hand has kept her messages relatively consistent, upbeat and simple. Tax cuts, a smaller state, slashing rules and being tough on overseas aggressors, the latter encompassing the EU and Macron, not just Putin and Xi. Oh dear. Just what Tory members want to hear in addition to throwing compliments at Johnson’s premiership. I wonder whether that particular love-in will continue when Johnson plots a potential comeback…

The FT carried an article by Janan Ganesh recently praising dull leaders saying Starmer and Biden, like Harry Truman and Clement Attlee, were underestimated in their appeal to swing voters. I am not so sure. Being a competent bore in the serious occupation of politics is a good thing but in a social media obsessed world which shrinks attention spans to a nanosecond, does such an argument carry weight? Certainly not amongst Party members, as Ganesh rightly highlights, where Republican obsessions with Trump, for example, and now Tories’ rethink about Johnson proves populism is alive and well amongst believers despite all its ultimate failings.

Liz Truss is no Johnson or indeed Thatcher, but her simple populist messages will carry her to victory among members next week (one suspects not by quite the margin most commentators expect) if not convincing her parliamentary colleagues. It will be a turbulent and possibly short-lived premiership. Starmer better hope Ganesh is right in his analysis of the merits of dullness if he is to bring an overstretched Tory reign to an end.