I’m currently on a business trip to the United States expecting to write about US politics. But, relatively speaking, little is happening here compared to the chaos unfolding in the UK. Biden’s stock is slowly rising, albeit from a very low base, and Trump is increasingly discredited. All but his most loyal fanatics are tiring of the Trump drama. Politics is no less polarised and the lead players may well change but, except for hurricanes of the weather sort, the news agenda is fairly quiet.

Meanwhile, from here, the UK looks like a horror show and in meetings with US asset managers, there is real puzzlement with the actions of the Truss government. It seems in freefall as the consequences of reckless tax cuts come home to roost through violent market reactions.

They discuss whether politics over the pond are those of an Emerging Market which is where the UK is going to end up if we carry on like this. In an investment category with the likes of South America, Eastern Europe et al…

Mainstream views from investment professionals are that our economic woes are entirely self-inflicted, starting with Brexit and now multiplying through the actions of an increasingly ideological, some might say out of control Tory administration. Regardless of this blog’s well documented views on unTory behaviour, I am simply relating what I am hearing.

Here in the US, they don’t know Starmer but they do know Johnson and now Truss. Oh dear…they are not impressed.

And when you hear Truss might be replaced by Johnson or the recently defeated, but seemingly very wise Rishi Sunak, the sense of chaos grows. We should be ashamed at the current state of UK politics which is getting too much attention even by this famously inward-looking ally.

The best comment I have recently read on Twitter came from a parent who said whilst it was impressive Queen Elizabeth had overseen 15 PMs, his six year old daughter had seen four. Incredibly, that may rise to five before his daughter makes seven…

Meanwhile, my US trip is now increasingly and achingly expensive…

You have to give it to the new PM. She has flown out of the traps with a massive intervention in energy markets and huge tax cuts.

Moving fast…

The ideological divide has never been clearer. Tories cut taxes to drive growth, aiming to shrink the State. Labour raise taxes selectively to sort the cost of living crisis with no desire to shrink anything. The ‘shopping trolley’ days of the Johnson regime are over.

The challenge for Truss is twofold. First, the Tories have been in power for 12 years and there must be a limit to how often they can reinvent themselves. Second, it is a massive £105 billion gamble with the public finances.

And the verdict from objective markets? Interest rate and inflation expectations have been revised upwards, stocks have fallen, and Sterling is at a 40 year low, heading to parity against the US dollar.

Johnson was unTory in all sorts of ways as this blog has written about many times, but this mini (more like max!) budget is, if anything, more unTory. Debt will soar and the cost of servicing it in the face of rising interest rates will soar faster. Sound finances were always at the heart of Tory administrations but not now with these unfunded tax cuts. Rishi Sunak must be turning in his political grave…

The hope is that the stimulus will rejuvenate the economy in time for the next election and any negative consequences from these new policies can be parked until after then. Truss will have to be incredibly fortunate for this to happen at the very least in terms of timing.

Labour’s response to Kwasi Kwarteng’s statement by the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, impressed and she looks and sounds like a future leader. Of course, the ideological divide may work in the Tories’ favour but if Labour can’t win next time round, surely we are heading towards a One Party State. Now that’s a thought…

I have a confession…. One of my roles as a Tory parliamentary assessor back in the days of Cameron was to help ensure more women candidates were selected. I came across an email exchange in 2008 with one Liz Truss, providing coaching advice to help her selection chances. She was picked to fight a safe Tory seat in Norfolk shortly afterwards. The rest is history as they say. Only time will tell whether I should have kept this to myself…

So, as expected, Liz Truss is the new PM but by a smaller majority than many forecast. And what a mountain she now has to climb as she faces energy, inflation and NHS crises.

Expectations are so low there is little downside…

It will be tough. She starts with only 57% support from Tory members (47% if you include those who didn’t vote), 32% of MPs (15% at the start of the contest) and a 12% approval rating from general voters according to some polls.

Truss’s self-belief is apparently legendary according to colleagues. It will need to be.

And that self-belief has already showed itself with a bold start. A partisan Cabinet of allies and a move to the Right with tax cuts combined with huge amounts of new borrowing and continuing culture wars. One Cabinet minister particularly makes you shudder. Suella Braverman as Home Secretary. Really? Likely to be highly aggressive on immigration, the EU and careless with judicial independence. She will have liberals and the Left foaming at the mouth. Perhaps that is the point.

So the Opposition has all to play for. With the scale of crises engulfing the country, Truss hasn’t got long to prove herself and many of all persuasions think she will fail. One misstep and it is game over.

But therein lies the trap. Big policy announcements, some borrowed ideas from opponents, might just surprise massively low voter expectations on the upside. Constant, urgent activity from a government simply doing things might impress.

On balance, Truss will probably fail because her Government lacks the necessary communication skills from the top, is too right-wing and partisan, managing to upset voters in the North and South for different reasons in the process.

But if I were Starmer or even Ed Davey of the LibDems I would articulate a clear alternative quickly and keep my guard up.