A Labour Opposition that fails to oppose

This most unTory of governments has done it again. In proposing a solution to financing social care reforms and cutting record post-Covid NHS waiting lists, tax rises of c£12 billion per annum over the next three years will increase the total tax take to 35.5% of GDP, almost the highest post-war level and certainly the highest since 1950. Fiscal conservatives must be proverbially turning in their graves.

What Johnson’s Conservative Party really stands for remains unanswered, and its populist stance is certainly confusing to traditional Tories; but this is a subject for another blog.

Labour flails as the Tories prove the power of incumbency…

What is clear about these social care reforms is that they confirm the power of incumbency. The Government can boast it is finally providing a comprehensive solution to an intractable problem, which has either been avoided by past administrations or attracted proposed solutions which have caused huge electoral unpopularity. This is a powerful message and who could oppose initiatives which now seemingly provide an in-depth answer to our deepest fears: health, and care in old age? Breaking manifesto pledges on tax is hardly going to resonate with the public. Nobody believes politicians’ promises anyway and it is a legitimate argument to say that exceptional Covid times require an exceptional response.

These reforms are unlikely to unravel, and a mooted Tory backbench revolt has not materialised. Indeed, it is fair to say there is something to recommend them. The tax increases, whilst regressive, are well spread. The inclusion of the value of housing will only kick in as part of the asset equation if you actually move into a care home. Combined with the capping of the majority of care costs at £86,000 will ensure many (Tory) voters living in modest homes for which they have saved most of their lives will not have to sacrifice the planned inheritance for their children. It was this that did for Theresa May’s proposed reforms. Of course, wealthy individuals sat on expensive properties are largely untouched and it is surprising more is not being made of this.

Which takes me to the Labour Party. Where is it? What are its plans? It has had two years to formulate a clear response on social care but the only thing one has heard so far is carping from the side-lines followed by initiatives, as yet undefined, to be presented before the General Election. It will be too late for Labour by then. The Tories will have implemented their reforms and, in doing so, will have been seen to have done something. That is enough.

There is a legitimate debate to be had about an alternative solution to revenue raising from wealth, inheritance and/or extra property taxes. In addressing asset inflation, it would be far more progressive and help narrow disparities of wealth, but one doubts Labour will ever be brave enough to moot these. For the Official Opposition, this is a lost opportunity. One of many which will consign it to electoral oblivion.

The Tories have taken the initiative by wearing Labour’s tax raising clothes. Labour in response is flat footed and ill-prepared. By the time the consequences of this largely incompetent government across a range of policies become clear, Johnson will have won yet another General Election and be on a lucrative public speaking tour, safe in the knowledge that his future social care costs will be picked up by the State.

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