Johnson cruises to victory on a sea of indifference

Most people would agree that this is the most important General Election in a generation. At stake is the UK’s place in the world, our future specifically within Europe, and possibly the break-up of the union.

And yet to quote Nick Watt, Political Editor of Newsnight, who is speaking at my company’s investment seminar next week: ‘…this is the dullest election ever. I am just waiting for something to happen that will make it take off’.

Why is this the case? It is because the esteem in which politicians are held has plummeted to new lows. Last night there was the first of the one to one debates between Johnson and Corbyn. This was not the moment the election took off. The standard of debate was terrible with the audience openly laughing at some of their responses. Two things struck me; Johnson’s popularity has all but vanished. He is seen as a serial liar, not to be trusted personally or politically. Corbyn, likewise, but he was never rated outside his core base in the first place.

However, the debate was a victory for Johnson. As the front runner, all he needed to do was not to screw up and as the debate was a non-score draw (nil-nil…), that was sufficient.

It was also disappointing that other parties were not included in this debate. Opinion polls suggest support for the two major parties has fallen below 70% and yet in national party terms, where were the Liberal Democrats, polling c15%? They are the only party with a definitive Remain stance on the EU and have most to lose by being starved of the oxygen of publicity.

So, let’s just summarise where we are in this election. We have had £800 billion of extra expenditure promised across the three major national parties and we haven’t even seen their manifestos yet! The Tories are losing their reputation for financial rectitude with a splurge of spending promises on the NHS, law and order and education to buy off Labour voters in Leave areas.

But it is Labour whose promises are truly eye watering. £400 billion promised on everything from re-nationalisation to more money on the NHS, free broadband and ultimately a 4 day working week. They are essentially reversing the base of mixed economy capitalism as defined by Margaret Thatcher onwards and therein lies their problem. They are seen as too extreme, too unaffordable, too incompetent. Add to that their ill-defined stance on Brexit and Brexit fatigue, and the Tories are on a home run.

The Tories, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in their currently held seats, are on c40%, Labour c29% and LibDems c15% according to the latest opinion polls. It is early days, but it is difficult to see these figures moving significantly unless there is a break-through moment and the Tories, in particular, have learnt from their catastrophic mistakes in 2017. This election, on a seat by seat basis, will be hugely unpredictable and exciting on the night but it is difficult to see the Tories not winning comfortably in the face of Corbyn’s Labour.

Yet it is worth reminding ourselves that a Tory victory will be no mandate for their brand of right-wing English nationalism and a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020. It is simply the least bad choice. More Brexit battles have yet to come and things will be just as bad as a hung parliament and further referendums. Can we all really bear to be indifferent??