The Prime Minister’s sense of public duty has been awesome to watch; her treatment by her colleagues has been terrible to watch. In challenging her leadership now, the Tory Party has lost its collective marbles. It is surely abrogating its right to govern in the face of its disgraceful behaviour over Brexit.
The leadership challenge to the PM is vainglorious and destructive to the country’s future. The public believes the Tories are increasing unfit to govern, and quite right too. Only the prospect of a Corbyn government has saved them in the past. No longer. A Corbyn government may just be what the Tories (but not the country!) deserves.
I hope I am wrong but, sadly, it might be tough for TM to survive. She has made too many mistakes. Her first one was her hubris in 2016. TM’s ‘red-lines’, ensuring no ECJ jurisdiction, no freedom of movement (the main driver for the Brexit victory whatever some sympathetic Brexit commentators might say), no customs union and triggering Article 50 prevented room for manoeuvre. Leaving the EU became increasingly intractable and breaking those red lines has allowed her enemies to pounce. From where she started there could be no Norway option and no easy Northern Ireland border solution. She unwittingly created the stage for a humiliating row back, setting us up for where we are today.
Her next mistake was a firm denial of a General Election, only to hold one. Remind you of this week? Politicians can’t keep saying no and then suddenly say yes…
These last few days were always going to be tricky in delaying the meaningful vote. Floating a delay in advance risked greater defeat, but who on earth advised TM to be so adamant about no delay in the vote even up to Monday morning? Cabinet ministers fanned out to say the vote would happen, only to be left dangling a few hours later, when this decision was reversed.
Her authority is severely damaged, hence today’s leadership vote, but despite her mistakes, shame on those Tory colleagues who have made her job impossible; shame on the appalling, stupid, self-serving Labour front bench and shame about the overall state of British politics. It is no solution to the Brexit mess to change the PM now.
What next? TM is fighting to hold on to her premiership and deserves to win if only to get Brexit through in March. No colleague has earned the right to replace her. But Tory MPs are a treacherous electorate and I fear she may not make it. So a few brave predictions:
- TM wins the leadership vote by a narrow margin. 55/45
- TM goes anyway this week. 45/55
- If TM wins and stays, she will broker a deal which will be passed by Parliament in January. 70/30
- If she goes, she will be replaced by an interim Tory leader who requests to leave the EU at a later date. 100/0
- A newly elected leader will not come from the Brexit extremes so step forward the likes of Sajid Javid or someone similar. 70/30
- Implosion of the Government and a General Election 40/60. This was always the least likely option but the Tories are losing control, the public are appalled and the odds are rising.
- A Norway EU departure option in the event of a new leader. 40/60. Climbing up the charts…
- A People’s Vote. 40/60. Climbing up the charts…
- A no-deal. 20/80. Falling in the charts…
We are in this Brexit chaos entirely due to the Tories’ European psychodrama. I hope TM holds on, but in today’s very act of trying to remove her, the Tories are increasingly forfeiting their right to govern.
Roll on a new centrist political party to improve the future choice available to us.
Inside Right Politics 