Brexit: a view from Dublin

Such is my professional life, I attended a Pensions conference in Dublin this week as the guest of the editor of a leading pensions investment magazine. Needless to say, Brexit loomed large in nearly all discussions.

Here are a few thoughts from key guest speakers, delegates (and a few taxi drivers!) on the UK and Brexit. I am not saying they are wholly representative but they were the sentiments that I heard most frequently expressed in conversations:

• The mess we have got ourselves into is embarrassing and damaging to the UK’s reputation. It is (and will continue to do so) speeding up our declining influence in the world.
• Are we mad, stupid or both?
• That in voting for Brexit, we have entirely over-reacted. We should have just ignored many of Europe’s strictures rather than leave. Many other countries do this.
• That we will be missed in the EU as a voice of common sense, particularly by the Irish.
• That there is no way there can be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Its symbolism would be disastrous. Some in the UK, like the ludicrous Boris Johnson, underestimate this. The Troubles are still too fresh in people’s minds.
• Many people in the UK and Ireland are ambivalent about the political direction of Northern Ireland anyway.
• Leaving European security structures such as those that allow for a European Arrest Warrant would significantly damage our safety.
• The value of an Irish passport is soaring…

As the week unfolded and the chaos got worse in parliament, there was growing sympathy for our predicament. And you know how dangerous that is…

The fact is that the hard Brexiteers, in unwitting collusion with the Opposition, have overplayed their hand this week. Theresa May stumbled and should have published the legal advice on her deal; but she will not go quietly into the night now after all the pain and suffering. The meaningful vote might well be delayed if it looks like she is facing a rout.

There is no point in further speculation. Literally anything might happen in the next few days. But what is clear is that the odds of a People’s Vote have got shorter and the odds of a no-deal longer as parliament gets back in the driving seat. That is the only good news in a week of political calamities. To get us through all this, as they say in Dublin, we will need the luck of the Irish…