Theresa May 1: Internal Opponents 0

Phew! Returning from the Conservative Party conference and watching Theresa May’s speech at my desk, with my heart in my mouth, it is now over: positive, optimistic, serious and well delivered. Supporters can now relax!

I didn’t agree with some of the content, particularly on Brexit, but there was some good stuff on domestic policy and it has bought the PM a little more time with the Party faithful. My, does she need it.

And what of her opponents? I am relieved to say that Boris Johnson blew it. His speech yesterday was obviously box office in a dull conference but many of the same people applauding him were back today applauding Theresa May. It was witty in part but long on objectives and short on solutions. It was like musical theatre; nice on the ear, entertaining, but with no definable substance. The growing irritation with Johnson from his parliamentary colleagues is what really matters and the recent photograph of him running through a field of wheat in parody of the PM to many was the final straw…

Nobody really wants the PM’s job before next March (except the former Foreign Secretary) and my betting is that she has another year or two. There is a strong consensus that Theresa May is a real trouper and deserves to be supported now but shouldn’t be allowed to lead the Tories into another General Election. That would still give her 4/5 years as PM and a chance to deliver Brexit. There are worse premierships.

Lastly, a few additional insights from Conference:

• Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, which decides the leadership rules for leader, confirmed in conversation, that some MPs claiming to have submitted a no confidence letter to him on Theresa May have actually done no such thing!
• The PM understands that a fudge to get Brexit over the line on March 29th with the real decisions being taken in the transition period is untenable. The uncertainty and damage to the economy would be too great.
• A no-deal has really serious implications for supply chains and ministers say quietly there is no exaggeration in some of the dire predictions if talks break down. It drives the desire for a deal even if it requires further (limited) compromises.
• Should there be a leadership election, in reality Boris is almost certainly a busted flush with his parliamentary colleagues. The next leader will come from centrists in the Cabinet; Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt (although his speech comparing the EU to the Soviet Union was poorly received) and possibly David Davis as a stop gap from outside the cabinet.

There you go. Theresa May survives and ends the conference a little bit stronger. Only a Brexit deal to deliver in a matter of a few weeks!