The Tories have a good story to tell. Sensible stewardship of the economy has allowed further expenditure on the NHS which was crying out for a longer-term funding settlement. All predicated, of course, on finding further efficiencies to ensure every penny counts.
Great news then.
Well, no. The announcement was launched on a Sunday with the explanation that we were benefitting from a Brexit dividend. What was Theresa May thinking? Why dignify the Boris Johnson’s of this world with the claim of a weekly £350m windfall for the NHS post leaving the EU?
It is a manifest untruth. Let’s run through the finances:
- All official forecasts confirm Brexit worsens rather than improves public finances
- In particular, the Office for Budget Responsibility (the OBR – the government’s official forecaster) expects Brexit induced slower economic growth will cost £15 billion in lost tax revenues in 2020/21 alone
- Due to the EU divorce settlement, the UK will be paying contributions for years with only an extra £5.8 billion available to spend elsewhere by 2022/23
- Even the sum of £5.8 billion is an exaggeration as withdrawing from the EU will require us to replace EU spending – £3 billion on agriculture for example
The Government quickly became a laughing stock and the debate has moved to which taxes will have to rise to fund the announcement. What a mess. The only hope – a valid one – is that the public cease to care where the money comes from as long as it is spent. The immediate polls, however, confirm they saw the untruth a mile away.
Why did this happen? The argument goes that Theresa May was flattering the Brexiteers in advance of an imminent series of humiliating compromises to be made on the terms of leaving the EU. Plausible – it would explain the rushed announcement – but has politics really come to this? Can a Tory Government spending an average 3.4% more on our beloved NHS over 5 years at the same time look like a fool?
The fact that several pro-Brexit commentators are still supporting the Brexit dividend argument simply confirms the toxic, misleading nature of today’s politics. This week, we still have Dominic Grieve’s amendment to be debated in the Commons giving the full House a ‘meaningful vote’ on any EU exit deal. Bring it on…
Inside Right Politics 