Predictions for 2018: stumbling along…

2018 will not be a vintage year politically. In particular, here in the UK, it will be a depressing slog through Brexit with badly needed political initiatives in other areas such as social care making little progress. The reshuffle won’t change much in the shorter term (more on that another time) and Theresa May’s imminent pronouncements on a series of domestic policies are awaited with less than feverish excitement…

Elsewhere, intractable problems accompanied by erratic political leaders, will hardly inspire confidence although it is a golden time for satirists. Two positives, however, stand out: reasonable global economic growth subject to a geo-political crisis and Macron.

So in more detail, what can we expect? Emboldened by the predictive failures of the ‘experienced commentariat’ here are a few ‘insiderightpolitical’ predictions for this year:

• There will be no General Election in the UK. Theresa May’s sheer perseverance and fears of a Labour victory will keep Tory MPs onside.  In fact Theresa May herself will go on well into 2019 and perhaps beyond, buoyed by a lack of alternatives and the determination to resurrect her reputation from the calamitous 2017 election.
• However, the Tories electoral position will gradually deteriorate unless there is a radical over-haul of its organisation and policy offering. A lamentable political membership base with unpopularity building in areas such as the NHS will be corrosive and take time to fix. Local election results will be poor and London a disaster. Only the extremism of Corbyn and his allies combined with their sheer incompetence on Brexit alone currently stand between the Tories and the political Armageddon many people think they deserve.
• The Liberal Democrats will go nowhere. With such definitive issues to tackle this is no time for wishy-washy hand wringing even if ultimate solutions have to come from the centre ground of politics at some stage.
• Elsewhere, despite the chaos reigning in the White House, the midterm elections whilst poor will be better than expected for the McDonald’s munching Trump. The Democrats, badly led, and offering no clear alternative, will not make the progress hoped for. There is still a real chance of an 8 year Trump presidency. Scary…
• Merkel will go. Her authority is starting to drain away as coalition talks fail to make progress. She has simply made too many major mistakes (Brexit, asylum seekers) and her competent but bland consensus style of politics will not save her.
• Macron will shine. Despite missteps through hubris, he is gradually making progress. Confident in what he wants to achieve, he will be an increasingly influential leader in Europe and beyond – a model for the next generation of politicians in western democracies.
• The global economy will continue to prosper, increasingly divorced from the actions of clowning political leaders. Business matters more and only a war in Korea or a significant Middle East crisis will change this outlook.
• Lastly, watch Iran. By far the most interesting country in terms of potential if demonstrations lead to any real, positive change.

So there you go.  If much of it feels same old, same old…then take comfort from the fact these predictions may well be wrong. For the last time in 2018: Happy New Year…