First, let’s be clear on Venezuela. My brother lived and worked there. I spent a week in Caracas before visiting Angel Falls, dodging firebombs. What should be one of the world’s richest countries through oil is a poverty stricken, corrupt mess. Chavez and Maduro plundered its resources for personal gain. Good riddance to Maduro.

And yet. And yet… the manner reflects the worst attributes of Trump’s regime. It sets a precedent for China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine let alone America/Greenland which would essentially put the US at war with NATO allies. Presidents Xi and Putin must be rubbing their hands with glee.

As mentioned before, the prediction from a Sky News commentator that Trump’s world view is to carve the globe between three strongmen (Trump, Xi and Putin) is becoming uncomfortably true.

Which takes me to my predictions for 2026 via a review of those for 2025… I actually got 5 out of 9 correct, 2 half correct and 2 completely wrong. That makes a net 6 out of 9. Umm… Not too bad but I must apologise for the terrible mistake of saying Trump might well be more benign than expected. This overshadows all the rest. To be fair to me… I quickly corrected this formally in my blog of 19th February (worth another read) but that’s no excuse. My initial focus was to worry about what comes next after Trump rather than be concerned about the clearly malign, well prepared Trump II.

Anyway, sticking to the positives:

• Labour would have a terrible year but some glimmers of progress would be seen at the end of 2025. Progress yet to be seen. Half correct.

•Despite mutterings Starmer would remain PM. Correct.

• The Tories would have a terrible year and flatline at best in the polls. Correct.

• Reform UK would have a strong year, but with clear signs by end of 2025 they have peaked. This is starting to show in opinion polls along with tactical voting to defeat them. Correct.

• The CDU/CSU in Germany would see off the AFD and win power. AFD are a force to be reckoned with but correct.

• China would have a miserable year but would not invade Taiwan in 2025 to distract attention. Actually, Trump has made it a great year for China, and an invasion of Taiwan is still firmly on the agenda. Half correct.

• The war in Gaza would end but on Israel’s terms. Correct.

• Trump would force a tougher settlement on Ukraine than Russia wants. No sign of that so far. Incorrect.

Over to 2026. Such is global uncertainty, to resist foolhardiness and protect my reputation, I have decided to apply odds to my predictions…

1. Starmer will remain PM. Labour is poor at replacing leaders and there is no clear successor. There actually might also be glimmers of hope in the government making progress if it can learn from its endless mistakes. 60/40.
2. Badenoch, the Tory leader, will keep her job. A disaster in May’s local elections is now ‘priced in’, her opponent, Jenrick, is seen as increasingly weird in his desperate desire for the top role and a formal alignment with Reform UK would be the end of the Tories. There are no other clear successors. 60/40.
3. In focusing on the economy, the Tories will pick up a little in the polls at Reform UK’s expense who will be seen to have peaked despite a strong performance in May. 70/30.
4. There will be an uneasy peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Neither will be happy but Russia will have the upper hand and hostilities at a certain level will continue. 70/30.
5. There will be no invasion of Taiwan by China this year but preparations will continue aided by Trump setting precedent with his actions towards Venezuela. 80/20.
6. Trump’s malign and maverick unpredictability will continue. He and his advisors are running down the clock towards the mid-terms where the Democrats (still hopeless) should take the House of Representatives curtailing at least Trump’s domestic agenda. His actions, however, will stop short of seizing Greenland. Even Trump might baulk at essentially going to war with NATO allies but expect a much larger US/Greenland military base and action in Cuba. 80/20.
7. No predictions for Europe. Elections are mostly local and although populists will perform strongly it is too early to tell how predictive that will be nationally. Politics will be dominated by the war in Ukraine and, for the UK, the prospect of closer EU alignment.

So, there we are. Six hedged predictions for 2026. The question is not how accurate my odds are on likely outcomes, but what I may have missed altogether. A challenge for all commentators, small and large…

Happy New Year!