President Trump: Let the Show Begin

Rather like waiting for a dental appointment, you want the pain to be over as quickly as possible and so it is with Donald Trump’s inauguration.

It is upon us and The Donald (unless those tapes appear….) is the 45th President of the United States. No bluster, no conspiracy theories, no insults. It’s your show now Donald and everything that happens from here on in, is on your watch.

And what should we expect? Is this a march backwards from 40 years of liberal democratic progress or a mere blip on a continuing path we have complacently taken for granted? Well, three points, one bad (really bad) and two good (one potentially very good).

First, the bad. In this new Administration, Trump is the least of your worries. Vice President, Mike Pence, is far more socially conservative and may signal an erosion of liberties we take for granted on this side of the Atlantic far more actively if he became President. Then there is the cabinet…. who could independently tear up the Iran agreement, embrace Putin (although splits are appearing), walk away from environmental safeguards and tear up global trade treaties. That is before the appointment of an Israeli Ambassador who decries a two state solution. This has major implications for us in the UK and beyond. Umm…

And now on to the good points. First, this is likely to be an Administration which understands business and markets and may, in embracing Putin, be cannier in sorting out Syria and ultimately curtailing Putin’s expansionist ambitions. In the case of Syria, a resolution will aid the pressures of immigration facing Europe’s borders.

The second good point however may be most important of all and certainly most significant for the UK as that the reasons for a Trump victory are correlated with Brexit. It is about those who have politically lost, principally the moderates from the centre left and right, understanding and learning from their mistakes. You can’t win elections not listening to those who have been side-lined by globalisation. You can’t win elections without understanding pride in one’s country and shared values is not something to be sneered at. You can’t win elections without being a muscular moderate. Being as focused and ruthless in winning the argument, just as the further Right has been, is something liberals must learn. No more hand-wringing please.

So what does all this mean for us? If liberal democracy re-calibrates its message to a wider audience and toughens its approach, 2016’s events will be seen as a corrective blip. We don’t need a hard Brexit and we don’t need to fear an isolationist America if our relationship with Europe remains close. And, for all communications professionals, now is the time to start preparing to confront fake news in social media more aggressively. Lastly, you never know, when a Trump presidency is not depressing and worrying, it may even be comical. Hold on for the ride…

You will only miss it when it has gone…

On a tide of populism we have experienced Brexit and now, with a gasp of disbelief, the election victory of Donald Trump. Liberal Democracy R.I.P? Possibly.

But we should not really be surprised. Trump’s popularity was trending upwards far more than his manifest lack of suitability for the presidential role should have allowed (hence my desire to campaign for Hillary Clinton on a recent business trip to the US) and the reasons he succeeded are clear.

It was for the same reasons that Britain voted to leave Europe. As I have written before, globalism has disenfranchised many voters and not only issues such as immigration but the increasing disparity of wealth is fueling discontent. (E.g. FTSE CEO’s pay up 10% in 2015, wages largely stagnant in the US since the 1970’s, 75% of the wealth held by the top 10% … etc).

The signals from democratic elections are a stark warning. We operate in global markets. The capitalist system as a whole, upon which liberal democracy resides, owes it to voters to be more accountable, meeting the needs of society as a whole.

So correcting short termism in markets, from company behaviour and the actions of asset managers, to the needs of asset owners, is a start. It will help ease some of the current tensions between business and society, reversing the tide of populism. Aligning more closely the interests of all major stakeholders; employees, shareholders, suppliers, customers, creditors, communities, the environment is a crucial initial step and the sensible parts of the media are already on the case.

A while ago you would have become a millionaire if you had bet £1.00 on Leicester winning the Premier League, Brexit and a Trump victory. Odds on Marine Le Pen winning the presidential election in France are now 7/4. Liberal Democracy R.I.P? Possibly. For so many reasons you, will miss it if it goes.