The lesson from Trump for moderates: Be Muscular!

You don’t have to be corrupt. You don’t have to be a narcissist. You don’t have to hire sycophants. You don’t have to govern with a fictional narrative. You don’t need to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War and put a frat boy in charge. But you DO need to be ruthless. Muscular if you like.

Many moderates hand-wring. They triangulate. They often dine rather than campaign. They fear offending people and often back off. They surrender the political agenda to those that don’t do this; mainly the ideological hard right.

Trump versus most Democrats is a classic example.

Trump is setting a ruthless agenda of shrinking the federal state, rowing back on political correctness, diversity initiatives, regulation generally. Raw negotiating power is everything. You name it and he is trying to do it with a highly effective team behind him. The Democrats? Their leaders prevaricate. Trapped between left and right activists within, they are overwhelmed at the speed of Trump’s initiatives.

You might not like him, but he gets things done…

In policy terms how does this play out? Let’s start with foreign affairs. In the Middle East, whilst Biden largely sat on the fence, Trump twisted the private parts of Netanyahu to bring an end to the war in Gaza – the only (obvious) solution whilst threatening total war on Hamas. The same may happen in Ukraine where Biden supported the Ukrainian war just enough for survival but not enough to strike a real blow at Russia and force a peace deal. Trump is threatening to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as he runs run out of patience and ups the tempo since Putin is not succumbing to his charms. Surprise, surprise, a second Putin/Trump summit is now scheduled. Trump may sell out Ukraine as he (wrongly) doesn’t see this war as involving American interests. What we do know is that he will pursue a deal ruthlessly and I would be nervous if I were Zelenskyy.

President Carter couldn’t rescue Iranian hostages, Clinton had to be forced by Blair to enter the Balkan wars, Obama failed to act when Russia took over Crimea and, despite red lines, failed to take action on Syria’s use of chemical weapons, with grim results. On NATO, endless presidents, to be fair not just Democrat ones, urged allies to spend more on defence and failed. Trump whilst chaotic, moved the dial and NATO members have upped their contribution. One of his many weaknesses is his attention span but at least you understand Trump is not to be messed with.

But it is domestic politics where Trump currently rules supreme whilst divided Democrats ineffectually flap around. Endless rather scary initiatives pour out from Trump’s administration to stop immigration dead, reshape the federal government and gerrymander the legal system. The list is endless. It is awful to watch but you cannot deny Trump’s muscular approach works if getting things done matters.

Democrats need to get real. Head to the centre, pursue voters’ concerns ruthlessly on immigration, law and order, tackle inflation and be tough but supportive of allies and ruthless with enemies.

US voters embraced Nurse Trump for fear of something worse. When will Democrats get it and become muscular in their moderatism?

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has  insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept  if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration.  It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

Trump’s America is no longer an ally of Europe

Trump is awful. A liar and that is not a word to be used lightly. Yesterday, he gave a press conference accusing Ukraine of starting the war with Russia, that the US has given US$500 billion in aid to Ukraine when it is closer to US$100 billion in direct, mainly military aid which benefits many US industries. He also commented that Zelenskyy ‘s approval rating is 4% when it is 57% and parroted Putin’s propaganda online questioning the authenticity of Zelenskyy ‘s rule.

Listen to the brilliant podcast ‘The Rest is History’ on Chamberlain negotiating away the Sudetenland with Hitler without the Czechs present at the infamous Munich conference in 1938. The similarity with Trump/Putin/Ukraine is uncanny as America sits down to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe have been invited to participate.

What does Putin have on Trump except a psychological hold on Trump’s love of strong, violent anti-democratic leaders?

Zelenskyy knows who his friends are and they don’t currently reside in the White House

This blog’s prediction that Trump wouldn’t be as bad as many critics feared is looking somewhat shaky currently.

Trump’s Ukraine comments come on top of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at a security conference, guess where, in Munich…, claiming the biggest threat to Europe came from within (lack of freedom of speech) rather than Putin. Try telling that to the relatives of murdered opponents of Putin in Russia or the suffering people of Ukraine.

Of course, Trump and Vance have a point in demanding that Europe stands up for itself versus Russia rather than the US always bailing it out. It is a policy articulated by many previous US presidents and wrongly ignored. No longer. Trump’s lasting legacy may be to unite Europe militarily, although it may take a while as they row about European boots on the ground to keep a future peace in Ukraine.

The US is now an amoral, possibly an immoral country politically. Everything is transactional. There is no sense the current Administration believes democratic values trump authoritarian rule. In fact, it is the reverse. Europe (ex the far-right) better learn to live without an ally across the Atlantic for the time being.

America voted for America First, not Putin, Xi, or any other quasi dictator first. Perhaps American voters do not care, but they will eventually find out the two aims are incompatible. Let’s hope it is not too late by then.

2025 may surprise on the upside…

My uncharacteristic mild optimism may only be due to too many right-wing commentators reading the last rites for liberal democracy. But there you go. They, rather than me, might be disappointed…

It is time for 2025 predictions but also to review those for 2024. Umm…

  • The Tories will go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation – an easy tick
  • The Tories will move further to the Right after the election – tick
  • Trump will not win the presidency… to be fair this prediction was changed in June after Biden’s disastrous debating performance but still… – a rather large cross
  • The populist Right will make gains in Italy, Germany and France – tick
  • Putin will win in Russia (tongue in cheek!) and Modi in India. Modi lost his populist majority but governs in a coalition – tick
  • The war in Ukraine will grind on but Western resolve will hold up – tick
  • Netanyahu will not survive the year as Israel’s Prime Minister – cross

2025 will be a bumpy year, but perhaps not as bad as expected...

Five out of seven predictions were correct, but I would have sacrificed them all just to be right about Trump. Hey, ho. Perhaps I underestimate the attraction of populists.

So why some optimism for 2025? Well, mainly because populist support has been ‘priced in’, and too many people are dancing too heavily on the grave of moderates. Here we go:

  1. Trump will not be the all-conquering extremist many predict and may surprise on the upside. Janan Ganesh from the Financial Times at my Company’s investment seminar last November predicted Trump would be uncontrollable simply because he doesn’t face re-election. I am not so sure. Despite a largely competent start in picking his rather extreme Cabinet, he probably only has two years to make a difference before Congressional elections give back the House to the Democrats (an early 2026 prediction). As argued before, many of his policies are contradictory, his Cabinet is likely to be ineffectually chaotic, he has softened on Ukraine (though right to challenge Europe on defence expenditure), he might just want to be a little more popular in his final years or may simply lose interest in governing radically or governing at all.
  2. Labour will have a torrid time (its communications skills are still hopeless), but it has four years, and glimmers of progress towards its targets will appear by the end of 2025. The UK will appear a beacon of stability internationally, and this will ultimately benefit the government.
  3. Starmer will lead Labour throughout 2025 and into the next General Election despite mutterings.
  4. Reform UK will have a strong year but are close to peaking. Don’t underestimate the hostility of a large proportion of the electorate towards Farage and the likes of his backers such as Trump/Musk. Although Farage and Musk now appear to have fallen out. What a shame.
  5. The Tories will have a terrible year and will flatline in the polls. Badenoch has not found her feet yet and seems to have forgotten the Tories’ way back to power is to regain their reputation for economic competence. Too early, I know, but she is unlikely to lead her Party into the next General Election. Such turmoil in the main opposition party will benefit Reform but also Labour.
  6. It is too early to predict events in France although things do not look promising but there will be better news in Germany. The unstable largely left-wing coalition will be heavily defeated in February, ushering in a centre-right CDU/CSU coalition government despite the rise of the extreme AfD.
  7. A miserable year for China. Slowing growth, a possible trade war with the US and Xi’s dominance starting to grate across the country means there will be no move on Taiwan despite bellicose noises. China simply cannot afford the economic consequences, particularly when they are also losing ground to their unfriendly neighbour, India.
  8. Not least Russia/Ukraine. See first prediction above. Trump will eventually force a tougher peace solution on Putin over Ukraine than Putin wants. Putin is winning the war but at great human and economic cost. A Trump led ‘solution’ will probably involve greater support for Ukraine from Europe, guarantees on borders, but not fully on Ukraine’s terms and no NATO membership. It is 50/50, whether the war ends this year. Even this blog knows when not to put your neck out…
  9. Lastly, the Middle East. The war in Gaza will end this year but on Israel’s terms.

That’s it folks. A roller coaster of a year but optimism is based on the fact that progress towards the death of liberal democracy will stall…

Happy New Year!