Tag: Trump

Trump appalls at almost every level

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

A wise Sky News commentator said about Trump before his election that his world view was just to carve up the globe between three admirable (in his eyes) strongmen; Xi, Putin and himself. This amoral/immoral approach with little role for democracy appears to be the driving force behind the Trump administration’s new national security strategy published last Friday.

It trashes Europe, warning the continent is ‘subverting democracy’ and faces ‘civilisational erasure’ from high migration. What a load of nonsense and all this coming from a government that is domestically subverting the rule of law, issuing pardons to murderers (January 6th) and drug traffickers. And that is before wide scale state capture as Trump and his cronies enrich themselves at home and abroad, mixing foreign affairs with private business interests.

This sorry national security strategy goes on to attack the EU generally but depicts Russia as no longer a security threat. Selling out Ukraine seems to be a priority, reinforced by a disgraceful interview with Trump yesterday. Meanwhile, China is pushed down America’s list of priorities and consequently, its power grows ever stronger. Lastly, not covered by this document is the mismanagement of India, a future superpower in its own right which is being driven into the arms of Putin via sanctions. And what is the obsession with Venezuela?

The US under Trump and JD Vance can no longer be seen as a friend of democracy or a remotely reliable ally of the UK or Europe. Perhaps the Sky News commentator was too cautious in his assessment of Trump…

It all makes grim reading and grimmer listening. I am a news junky but during my recent trip to the US felt the need to avoid any television, being sick of the sight and sound of Trump.

Sick of the sight and sound of him…

Then back at home, culturally, as the Trump administration seeks to row back from any form of political correctness on the grounds of ‘freedom’, Trump not only threatens universities, museums and media outlets, but has starkly seized control of the Kennedy Center now referring to it as the Trump Kennedy Center. At the weekend, Trump personally hosted the Center’s annual honors gala, politicising the whole event, rewarding his cronies in front of a MAGA friendly crowd. No wonder ticket sales generally at this venerable institution have plummeted.

The damage Trump is now doing to the fabric of this nation is incalculable. Collapsing approval ratings for Trump’s actions are no protection and focus turns increasingly to the mid-term elections next year to curtail his power. Democrats, responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place and currently in disarray, are not guaranteed to win. Incalculable damage may turn into irreversible damage and that is very bad news for all of us.

The lesson from Trump for moderates: Be Muscular!

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

You don’t have to be corrupt. You don’t have to be a narcissist. You don’t have to hire sycophants. You don’t have to govern with a fictional narrative. You don’t need to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War and put a frat boy in charge. But you DO need to be ruthless. Muscular if you like.

Many moderates hand-wring. They triangulate. They often dine rather than campaign. They fear offending people and often back off. They surrender the political agenda to those that don’t do this; mainly the ideological hard right.

Trump versus most Democrats is a classic example.

Trump is setting a ruthless agenda of shrinking the federal state, rowing back on political correctness, diversity initiatives, regulation generally. Raw negotiating power is everything. You name it and he is trying to do it with a highly effective team behind him. The Democrats? Their leaders prevaricate. Trapped between left and right activists within, they are overwhelmed at the speed of Trump’s initiatives.

You might not like him, but he gets things done…

In policy terms how does this play out? Let’s start with foreign affairs. In the Middle East, whilst Biden largely sat on the fence, Trump twisted the private parts of Netanyahu to bring an end to the war in Gaza – the only (obvious) solution whilst threatening total war on Hamas. The same may happen in Ukraine where Biden supported the Ukrainian war just enough for survival but not enough to strike a real blow at Russia and force a peace deal. Trump is threatening to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as he runs run out of patience and ups the tempo since Putin is not succumbing to his charms. Surprise, surprise, a second Putin/Trump summit is now scheduled. Trump may sell out Ukraine as he (wrongly) doesn’t see this war as involving American interests. What we do know is that he will pursue a deal ruthlessly and I would be nervous if I were Zelenskyy.

President Carter couldn’t rescue Iranian hostages, Clinton had to be forced by Blair to enter the Balkan wars, Obama failed to act when Russia took over Crimea and, despite red lines, failed to take action on Syria’s use of chemical weapons, with grim results. On NATO, endless presidents, to be fair not just Democrat ones, urged allies to spend more on defence and failed. Trump whilst chaotic, moved the dial and NATO members have upped their contribution. One of his many weaknesses is his attention span but at least you understand Trump is not to be messed with.

But it is domestic politics where Trump currently rules supreme whilst divided Democrats ineffectually flap around. Endless rather scary initiatives pour out from Trump’s administration to stop immigration dead, reshape the federal government and gerrymander the legal system. The list is endless. It is awful to watch but you cannot deny Trump’s muscular approach works if getting things done matters.

Democrats need to get real. Head to the centre, pursue voters’ concerns ruthlessly on immigration, law and order, tackle inflation and be tough but supportive of allies and ruthless with enemies.

US voters embraced Nurse Trump for fear of something worse. When will Democrats get it and become muscular in their moderatism?

Oh dear: Moderates seem to be failing everywhere…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

How bad can it get? The centre-right has collapsed or is collapsing in the USA, UK, France, Italy to name just a few countries. To be fair, centre-right, centre-left moderates are hanging on in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Germany, Australia, and Canada, but the populist threat is rising across the board. Picking a row with Donald Trump seems to be the short-term route to salvation.

As for the UK, bloody hell! This blog welcomed Starmer’s pragmatism, but if that is a substitute for absolutely no core beliefs, we have a problem.

Starmer, like Sunak, seems to be deaf politically and cuts an unsympathetic figure. I have repeated this before, but he needs to be brutally honest on taxes, cut through on housing, the NHS, and small boats. Actually, just get things done. Otherwise, this government is toast and currently it is our last hope. After Rayner’s departure, I think he might have the cabinet he wanted even if by accident. Let’s see. Umm… as I write this Starmer has just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Did nobody check these links, particularly when we had a good Ambassador already in situ who had built close ties with Trump’s administration? It smacks of general incompetence laced with hypocrisy guaranteed to infuriate voters.

One law for moderates, another law for voters…

Despite day to day errors, the unpopularity of moderates generally has come about because of their fundamental incompetence in relating, managing expectations and delivering for voters. You can combine this with a fair amount of dishonesty, as mainstream politicians treat politics purely as a career rarely built on a set of consistent beliefs which chime with the electorate. Often self-serving and easily judged as hypocritical (see above), why shouldn’t voters go for populists? They feel there is nothing left to lose (until they have lost big time as they would be worse off on every front), as little seems to change, living standards have plateaued or gone backwards, and nobody is levelling with them. Respect for state institutions and indeed democracy itself is disappearing. Just look at how it is playing out in America. The self-serving, grotesquely incompetent Trump destroys government but incredibly moderates having nothing to offer except to self-flagellate over whether they should stay moderate or not.

We need clever, politically astute (not the same thing), brutally honest, perhaps even charismatic politicians (a change of view here) with gravitas to cut through and deflate the populist balloon before it is too late.

Where are they?

P.S. An uncomfortable UK state visit for Trump. If Mandelson has to resign because of his ties to Epstein, what does it say about the US President’s past and the company he kept…

Voters barely deserve democracy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Here we go again. Another contradictory poll this week in The Times shows voters not wanting any tax rises, but demanding improved public services, oh, and the resignation of Rachel Reeves.

Infuriating. Cake and eat it comes to mind…

Then the public also wants to reduce immigration whilst nine million people of working age can’t/won’t work for various reasons, many, of course, quite legitimate. We have shortages of workers across a host of sectors from hospitality to care homes. Who today fills the gap, works hard and pays taxes? Oh, that will be immigrants then.

Add to this Reform UK topping opinion polls despite barely concealed, rabble rising racism being part of its raison d’etre. I love mixing a French colloquialism when it comes to Farage… The public thinks Reform is a one man band yet still it is ahead of Labour by eight percent regardless of any tested policies. Just unpleasant insinuations appear to be enough.

As the Financial Times says, ‘democracy can fail anywhere’…

Of course, much of the blame lies with mainstream politicians promising the earth but not the means to pay for it. This Labour government has tied itself in knots by refusing to raise core taxes against impossible earlier promises not to. Its solution is to leak a range of confidence busting peripheral taxes, thinking they can dishonestly trouser up to £40 billion in revenue without most people noticing. Good luck on that one.

Government is messy, complicated, balancing a range of competing interests. Institutions are moving too slowly to enact change and yet change is needed, not promises, quangos and endless reviews and enquiries. The public is in no mood for delay as the sense of drift that nothing gets done continues to gain ground, fuelled by polarised debates on social media.

A solution. The government gets competent, reviews its core tax policy, however painful, and introduces policies to cure sclerotic growth apace whilst Labour backbenchers wake up and support targeted cuts to benefits expenditure. The ‘small boats’ crisis also needs sorting. It might seem a distraction, but the public have had enough, and it is currently their top priority. Labour simply won’t get re-elected if they don’t.

In return? Voters need to accept those trade-offs on tax, cuts in public expenditure and immigration more generally. They also need to find within themselves more respect for the considerable challenges politicians face otherwise we simply get the politicians we deserve. Public life should be a two way street.

As the country slides unnecessarily into gloom, Churchill’s maxim that “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” has never seemed more apt…

Trump’s balance sheet: the good, the bad and the very ugly…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

So, lucky us. We get Donald Trump twice this year. First, playing golf in Turnberry with Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer rushing up to Scotland to pay homage and then the State visit in September. Umm…

Trump has dominated the headlines since day one of his presidency, hitting the ground running with a highly competent far-right team behind him, introducing some ground-breaking and irreversible domestic and international policies. You might not like him, but as with Farage, he is a transformative politician.

Trump swings into Scotland…

So, how does the balance sheet of Trump’s actions look as we head off for the summer holidays? Well, first the good, as it is the shortest part.

Trump was right to goad and threaten Europe into paying more for its own defence. Previous US presidents have urged this but have then done nothing to force Europe’s hand. There has always been a strong isolationist streak in America, and Trump has played this beautifully to get a 3.5 per cent of GDP defence spending commitment from European countries (ex-Spain). Second, immigration. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border has now fallen by 90 per cent on a month on month basis. Whatever you think of the merits of migration or the way Trump has treated this issue, the scale of illegal border crossings was storing up huge tensions in the US, even amongst many Democrat voters as southern states sent immigrants north to be housed. Obama was actually the toughest US president to curb numbers before Trump. Biden was hopeless. In thrall to his left-wing, he totally failed (as did Harris) to understand the strength of feeling on this issue across a majority of voters. Take note, Starmer.

OK, that’s enough ‘praise’. Now the bad. Tariffs do not work. They will potentially cause huge market inefficiencies and drive up prices. The consequences have yet to be felt. The rates are illogical across countries, although the overall impact might not be as great as earlier predictions indicated. Second, the recent tax bill. It strips Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party who pushed it through, ballooning the deficit in the process. What happened to fiscal conservatism? One senses the next global economic crisis might be driven by a fear of America defaulting on its debt, evidence demonstrated by the current weakness of the US Dollar.

Then the very ugly. There could be an entire book on this. Regardless of policy, it is the morality of leaders and their probity, which provides the bedrock to democracy. Trump simply lies, lies, lies. Perhaps an unsurprising trait in a convicted felon. Americans either don’t notice or don’t care about the State capture blatantly on view, whether it is Trump’s crypto-currency deals, the acceptance of a jet from Qatar or the fact that he, his family and ‘friends’ constantly trade on the broader influence of the presidency to enrich themselves. Next is the undermining of state institutions, the bullying of universities and arts generally in a drive to eradicate ‘political correctness’, the attempt to compromise an independent judicial process. The list goes on, but the ugly is also a fair description of fawning Western leaders who have swallowed their pride to accommodate Trump.

Finally, the lowest of the lows was how President Zelenskyy was treated in the White House in February. This was an iconic moment. Surrounded by individuals who had never fought, been under any military threat, and, in some cases, had dodged the Vietnam draft, it was a shameful episode. JD Vance’s behaviour was on this occasion, even worse than Trump’s. How dare they speak to a fellow president like that, representing a country under existential threat. This spectacle alone should be enough to justify a damning analysis of Trump’s presidency. The one silver lining is that Trump hasn’t had the opportunity to hand Ukraine to Putin and now understands the Russian leader isn’t quite the pal he thought he was.

The future? Who knows, as the Democrats sink to record levels of unpopularity and irrelevance. Will the presidency and federal institutions recover from four years of Trump? Will anyone realise the damage done by ineffectual checks and balances on centralised power? One doubts it. In a few years, which can’t come too soon, Trump’s emperor-like reign will end. But the hangover will be enormous.

The US: an increasingly foreign country for Europeans…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I went to Chicago, Boston, and New York last week on business. It included a mock listing for my company, JPES Partners, on Nasdaq courtesy of our partners, eVestment. Thank you. It was fun.

When in the US, focus on the positives such as Nasdaq’s brilliant self-promotion…

I stayed on to see close friends at the weekend. That was fun, too. But they are worried.

The politics of this country is dark, very dark. Like Brexit in the UK, Trump is toxic. Half of the electorate loathe him and are simply embarrassed or alarmed. The other half feel he is a slightly unpleasant necessity. A small minority of course love him but, even amongst the latter, few would want him round for dinner…

Trump’s presidency is sinister, and his presence makes the country increasingly foreign to Europeans. I was warned to take any anti-Trump material off my phone before entering the country as border security could ask to see it and send me home if it offended. What??? Federal institutions are under attack, including the judiciary. Cultural and educational institutions seen as liberal are also under attack or are usurped. Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre and the attempted crushing of Harvard by withdrawing federal grants are just two painful examples.

Trump threatens NATO, bombs Iran, swears at Israel and lies on the international stage. It is too early to address the impact of his chaotic foreign policy, but it is splitting his isolationist supporters. They will bend the knee in the end. They have nowhere else to go. Just listen to the pathetic and vile Steve Bannon grovelling to Trump on the Middle East.

Domestically, Trump also happens to be forcing through a tax bill stripping Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party.

Yet, the Democrats in response are hopeless. Either stunned into inaction or busy in-fighting. A new generation of activists believe a lurch to the Left is the solution to Trump with Democrats in New York electing a privileged self-described socialist to be their candidate for mayor. Take note, you muppets. Corbyn’s experience in the UK should be a guide. It may feel good, but you will never win elections nationally from this position. Voters are mostly centrist, and your failure to offer a decent alternative to Trump re voters’ core concerns handed him victory in the first place.

Trump was underestimated, and the US Constitution overestimated. Checks and balances feel illusionary. Against this background, I know many Europeans who have withdrawn from holidaying in the US until Trump has gone. Public life has become too wild. My response? I walked past Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, forgetting to look. You just have to focus on the belief that Trump will never define this country, whatever current damage this man does. Just ignore him and keep on walking…

Nice to be home, though.

US teeters on the economic brink…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The Trump presidency is a roller coaster affair, even worse than most pundits feared. You can’t argue it isn’t box office, though, perhaps deliberately so. The long expected blow-up between Trump and Musk is pure theatre.

A relationship made for theatre…

However, there is one constant. The state of the US economy and its grotesque burden of debt. On this issue, Elon Musk is correct.

The budget deficit was an incredible 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Forecasters expect this to rise above 7% in every year of Trump’s presidency. The US debt pile currently exceeds 120% of GDP. This is unsustainable.

When Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, has to reassure markets that ‘the US is never going to default’, you know there is real trouble brewing.

Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill will remove the debt ceiling. Its impact is expected to add US2.4 trillion of additional debt over the next decade. The evidence is clear. Tax cuts mainly for the better off, never pay for themselves.

Add to this tariffs cutting growth, fears over Trump’s presidency undermining the rule of law and unpredictable foreign policy initiatives in the face of geopolitical instability, and you have a recipe for economic disaster.

Longer-term US interest rates are rising, exacerbating the debt problem whilst the US dollar weakens.

Trump’s economic approval ratings are dire, but these are not yet in territory to undermine his populist presidency. He continues to play out his hugely risky economic experiment. Republican fiscal conservatives must be turning in their graves, for that is where most of them are.

Bill Clinton was the last president to balance the budget. Rather than set up his own party, perhaps Elon Musk should change sides and vote Democrat…

Meanwhile, on this side of the pond it is a key week for the Labour government as it announces details of its spending review. More on this later but if it is not ‘big, beautiful and bold’, you would have to ask what is the point of Starmer/Reeves et al.

Republicans cower to Trump; they will suffer the consequences in the end…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’

Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.

A President out of control…

He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.

Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.

Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.

Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.

Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.

Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration. It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.

No morality: the world has become a marketplace

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

Civilised democracies’ opponents sadly now include America in addition to Russia and China. There is no longer such a thing as the West and Western values.

Everything can be bought under Trump. Threats and bribes will decide the outcome of any negotiation. There is no morality, no commitment to democratic values. Autocratic strength is paramount, and the new competitive bromance is between Trump, Putin, and Xi.

Simply an appalling President, tearing up Western values

A Sky News commentator years ago warned that Trump and his acolytes wanted the world divided between these powers without any guiding principles except the acquisition of power and money. Autocrats rule, the weak are crushed, and red meat and lies are thrown at voters to keep them acquiescent, that is, if voters exist at all. It seems this is the case.

This blog has already torn up one 2025 prediction that Trump would be better than expected. He is worse. Far, far worse. Surrounded by immoral (no longer amoral), ideological operators a clear political, anti-democratic agenda is unfolding.

The vile Vice President Vance was a disgrace in front of Zelenskyy and has  insulted European democracies and the actions of their soldiers in previous wars. The Defence Secretary, Hegseth, clearly a moron, participated in leaked secret plans for a military strike in the Middle East on an unprotected online platform. An anti-European group chat of senior Trump Administration officials, oh, and the Editor-in-Chief of The Atlantic magazine by accident. Any resignations? No, just obfuscation and a wholly unfounded attack on the journalist to try and discredit him to hide the scandal.

Then we have Musk. In charge of DOGE (a new department to improve government efficiency – actually not a bad concept  if done properly), he is totally out of control. Randomly firing government employees, he bizarrely finds time to support far-right extremists across Europe.

Finally, we have a US President, yes, a US President, praising Russia and its leader Putin, threatening Canada and Greenland, insulting Europe, and planning to carve up Ukraine like Hitler and Chamberlain did with the Czechoslovakia Sudetenland or Stalin and Hitler did with Poland. This is not an exaggeration.  It is that serious.

The upside? Europe and other countries with clear democratic principles are uniting to manage their future without the US and possibly NATO. Long overdue.

Americans are either supportive of Trump or seemingly oblivious. The Democrats are impotent, hopelessly directionless, and wholly responsible for Trump’s victory.

The consequences of Trump’s actions are hard to contemplate. But one thing is for sure. The world is becoming an amoral marketplace with everything for sale. Democracy is scorned, and American voters should be ashamed of what is being done in their name.