Tag: politics

The slow painful walk back from Brexit…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Why are politicians of many mainstream parties not coming clean? I am thinking of Labour, the LibDems and exiled Tories. They shy away from support for joining the single market or full scale EU membership for fear of opening old Brexit wounds.

A bold move on closer EU alignment might just be what this government needs…

Grow a backbone. Recent opinion polls are damning of Brexit. Only 31% of voters now think it was the right decision to leave the EU. 61% of voters say Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. Johnson and the Conservative Party take the most blame followed by a host of former Tory leaders and, of course, the lovely Nigel Farage. This is why it will be a long road back to power for the Conservatives and why this blog believes we are ‘enjoying’ peak support for Reform UK who have flatlined on 27% of the vote share.

Just pop the impact of Brexit into AI. UK GDP is 6-10% lower than it would have been without Brexit, business investment is 12-18% lower, productivity 3-4% lower, jobs are 1.8 million fewer, UK trade has fallen relative to our economy’s size. The list goes on. Brexit has been a disaster. And that is before the changed national security environment where the whole of Europe is threatened by Russia.

The Labour government are tip toeing back into the EU’s ambit. It is called a ‘pragmatic reset’ apparently. Ties are deepening through agreements on trade such as a veterinary agreement, recognition of professional qualifications etc. but it is painfully slow. It has just been announced that the UK is finally set to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from 2027. Whoopee!

Government is painfully slow. It is why Labour is being so punished in the polls. Surely aligning with the EU at least in terms of the single market would be a bold and mostly popular move, particularly as leaving the EU has hardly curbed immigration…

Of course there is one major blockage. The EU currently really doesn’t want the psycho drama of Britain rejoining the EU, particularly with Reform UK riding high in the polls. And I guess, who could blame them?

What a mess. The UK political system has done huge damage to our economic future and national security, from the referendum itself to the way we left the EU. Moderate politicians of all parties should make this clear and move fast to correct the impact. You never know, it might even help them at the polls…

P.S. One more blog this year. I promise it will be festive…😁

Trump appalls at almost every level

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

A wise Sky News commentator said about Trump before his election that his world view was just to carve up the globe between three admirable (in his eyes) strongmen; Xi, Putin and himself. This amoral/immoral approach with little role for democracy appears to be the driving force behind the Trump administration’s new national security strategy published last Friday.

It trashes Europe, warning the continent is ‘subverting democracy’ and faces ‘civilisational erasure’ from high migration. What a load of nonsense and all this coming from a government that is domestically subverting the rule of law, issuing pardons to murderers (January 6th) and drug traffickers. And that is before wide scale state capture as Trump and his cronies enrich themselves at home and abroad, mixing foreign affairs with private business interests.

This sorry national security strategy goes on to attack the EU generally but depicts Russia as no longer a security threat. Selling out Ukraine seems to be a priority, reinforced by a disgraceful interview with Trump yesterday. Meanwhile, China is pushed down America’s list of priorities and consequently, its power grows ever stronger. Lastly, not covered by this document is the mismanagement of India, a future superpower in its own right which is being driven into the arms of Putin via sanctions. And what is the obsession with Venezuela?

The US under Trump and JD Vance can no longer be seen as a friend of democracy or a remotely reliable ally of the UK or Europe. Perhaps the Sky News commentator was too cautious in his assessment of Trump…

It all makes grim reading and grimmer listening. I am a news junky but during my recent trip to the US felt the need to avoid any television, being sick of the sight and sound of Trump.

Sick of the sight and sound of him…

Then back at home, culturally, as the Trump administration seeks to row back from any form of political correctness on the grounds of ‘freedom’, Trump not only threatens universities, museums and media outlets, but has starkly seized control of the Kennedy Center now referring to it as the Trump Kennedy Center. At the weekend, Trump personally hosted the Center’s annual honors gala, politicising the whole event, rewarding his cronies in front of a MAGA friendly crowd. No wonder ticket sales generally at this venerable institution have plummeted.

The damage Trump is now doing to the fabric of this nation is incalculable. Collapsing approval ratings for Trump’s actions are no protection and focus turns increasingly to the mid-term elections next year to curtail his power. Democrats, responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place and currently in disarray, are not guaranteed to win. Incalculable damage may turn into irreversible damage and that is very bad news for all of us.

The lesson from Trump for moderates: Be Muscular!

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

You don’t have to be corrupt. You don’t have to be a narcissist. You don’t have to hire sycophants. You don’t have to govern with a fictional narrative. You don’t need to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War and put a frat boy in charge. But you DO need to be ruthless. Muscular if you like.

Many moderates hand-wring. They triangulate. They often dine rather than campaign. They fear offending people and often back off. They surrender the political agenda to those that don’t do this; mainly the ideological hard right.

Trump versus most Democrats is a classic example.

Trump is setting a ruthless agenda of shrinking the federal state, rowing back on political correctness, diversity initiatives, regulation generally. Raw negotiating power is everything. You name it and he is trying to do it with a highly effective team behind him. The Democrats? Their leaders prevaricate. Trapped between left and right activists within, they are overwhelmed at the speed of Trump’s initiatives.

You might not like him, but he gets things done…

In policy terms how does this play out? Let’s start with foreign affairs. In the Middle East, whilst Biden largely sat on the fence, Trump twisted the private parts of Netanyahu to bring an end to the war in Gaza – the only (obvious) solution whilst threatening total war on Hamas. The same may happen in Ukraine where Biden supported the Ukrainian war just enough for survival but not enough to strike a real blow at Russia and force a peace deal. Trump is threatening to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as he runs run out of patience and ups the tempo since Putin is not succumbing to his charms. Surprise, surprise, a second Putin/Trump summit is now scheduled. Trump may sell out Ukraine as he (wrongly) doesn’t see this war as involving American interests. What we do know is that he will pursue a deal ruthlessly and I would be nervous if I were Zelenskyy.

President Carter couldn’t rescue Iranian hostages, Clinton had to be forced by Blair to enter the Balkan wars, Obama failed to act when Russia took over Crimea and, despite red lines, failed to take action on Syria’s use of chemical weapons, with grim results. On NATO, endless presidents, to be fair not just Democrat ones, urged allies to spend more on defence and failed. Trump whilst chaotic, moved the dial and NATO members have upped their contribution. One of his many weaknesses is his attention span but at least you understand Trump is not to be messed with.

But it is domestic politics where Trump currently rules supreme whilst divided Democrats ineffectually flap around. Endless rather scary initiatives pour out from Trump’s administration to stop immigration dead, reshape the federal government and gerrymander the legal system. The list is endless. It is awful to watch but you cannot deny Trump’s muscular approach works if getting things done matters.

Democrats need to get real. Head to the centre, pursue voters’ concerns ruthlessly on immigration, law and order, tackle inflation and be tough but supportive of allies and ruthless with enemies.

US voters embraced Nurse Trump for fear of something worse. When will Democrats get it and become muscular in their moderatism?

Starmer is back, and Labour is the only option… for now…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Reasonable, reasonable, reasonable. That is the only way to describe Labour’s conference. My, the government has had a grim start and needs to deliver, but it is the only game in town.

Two speeches stood out for me. Wes Streeting, a gifted orator, seems to be making waves in the NHS. In a good way. His embrace of technology, cutting bureaucracy, and forcing GP surgeries to be more flexible is convincing. The NHS has had a ton of money thrown at it, so Streeting better deliver, but it feels a reasonable start.

Then, Starmer’s speech. He had a spring in his step, possibly because his stalker, Andy Burnham, blew up at the conference. An interview telling voters he would not be dictated to by bond markets just emphasised his trouble making naivety. He is a lightweight, and it showed.

Starmer had a good week… finally…

Starmer was finally passionate about the country he leads, ripped into Farage, and Reform with legitimate force and comprehensively outlined what his government was seeking to achieve. He was moderate but passionate. Above all, reasonable, a rare trait in democratic politics currently.

The reason I have never voted Labour is its management of the economy. The state always gets bigger when a Labour government is in power, public expenditure runs out of control, and aspiration never seems to be a priority. But even this government knows we can not continue in this direction. It needs business, it needs to free up the economy, it needs to get people off benefits and back into work. Delivery is key, the next budget crucial and backbenchers surely now realise they have to fall into line when tough decisions are required.

Farage and Reform are vile. You can understand the frustrations that has put this merry band ahead in the polls, but they would tear the country apart. The LibDems remain irrelevant, and the Tories are only just beginning to understand their route back to power is the economy, stupid.

If your politics are mainstream, Starmer’s government is the only game in town for now. Labour reassured this week.

Panic over Starmer’s judgement; calm down and carry on…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It’s the media at its worst, and it’s Starmer at his worst.

All the right-wing media and quite a selection of other media too are circling the government with a little help from Starmer’s enemies in the wider Labour Party. Stop it. If not Starmer, then it will be Farage, not Badenoch (the Tories are currently dead in the water until they find a new long-term leader with real ability), Davey, or anybody else. If that’s not what you want, Starmer is pretty much the current best hope of preventing populism from succeeding in this country. For those who think Farage won’t be a problem, be very careful what you wish for. A Reform government in any shape or form would be a disaster and a betrayal of all the moderate values this country is known for and has worked so hard to defend. That is what we should be proud of, not the damn flag and the 110,000 out and proud Tommy Robinson racists who despoiled the streets of London at the weekend.

Give him a break, he has Donald Trump in the UK to contend with…

Starmer has got things wrong and has seemed hopelessly flat-footed, but he is hardly responsible for Rayner’s tax affairs. He certainly got Mandelson’s appointment wrong, but it is not impossible to see why you might want Britain’s best trade negotiator in Washington and that bit of the equation probably paid off.

As far as who might replace Starmer, the much mooted Andy Burnham is a blow hard who’s alleged successes as mayor of Manchester were brought down to earth in the Sunday Times at the weekend. Why on earth would a so-called ‘soft left’ politician solve our current problems? I met a Labour peer relatively recently who was my opponent in Manchester Withington when I stood for parliament many years ago. He damned Burnham with very faint praise, saying he was only as good as the people around him. Umm…

Let alone the Trump visit this week, the budget in November must be relatively error free, and Starmer also needs to acquire some emotional intelligence in dealing with his colleagues. That would go a long way to easing some current resentments. But make no mistake about it. Labour colleagues and even many in opposition parties should wish him well because the current alternative according to opinion polls is not a refreshed Labour government under a new leader but something very unpleasant indeed. It would make divisions over Brexit seem like Halcyon days…

Oh dear: Moderates seem to be failing everywhere…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

How bad can it get? The centre-right has collapsed or is collapsing in the USA, UK, France, Italy to name just a few countries. To be fair, centre-right, centre-left moderates are hanging on in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Germany, Australia, and Canada, but the populist threat is rising across the board. Picking a row with Donald Trump seems to be the short-term route to salvation.

As for the UK, bloody hell! This blog welcomed Starmer’s pragmatism, but if that is a substitute for absolutely no core beliefs, we have a problem.

Starmer, like Sunak, seems to be deaf politically and cuts an unsympathetic figure. I have repeated this before, but he needs to be brutally honest on taxes, cut through on housing, the NHS, and small boats. Actually, just get things done. Otherwise, this government is toast and currently it is our last hope. After Rayner’s departure, I think he might have the cabinet he wanted even if by accident. Let’s see. Umm… as I write this Starmer has just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Did nobody check these links, particularly when we had a good Ambassador already in situ who had built close ties with Trump’s administration? It smacks of general incompetence laced with hypocrisy guaranteed to infuriate voters.

One law for moderates, another law for voters…

Despite day to day errors, the unpopularity of moderates generally has come about because of their fundamental incompetence in relating, managing expectations and delivering for voters. You can combine this with a fair amount of dishonesty, as mainstream politicians treat politics purely as a career rarely built on a set of consistent beliefs which chime with the electorate. Often self-serving and easily judged as hypocritical (see above), why shouldn’t voters go for populists? They feel there is nothing left to lose (until they have lost big time as they would be worse off on every front), as little seems to change, living standards have plateaued or gone backwards, and nobody is levelling with them. Respect for state institutions and indeed democracy itself is disappearing. Just look at how it is playing out in America. The self-serving, grotesquely incompetent Trump destroys government but incredibly moderates having nothing to offer except to self-flagellate over whether they should stay moderate or not.

We need clever, politically astute (not the same thing), brutally honest, perhaps even charismatic politicians (a change of view here) with gravitas to cut through and deflate the populist balloon before it is too late.

Where are they?

P.S. An uncomfortable UK state visit for Trump. If Mandelson has to resign because of his ties to Epstein, what does it say about the US President’s past and the company he kept…

Voters barely deserve democracy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Here we go again. Another contradictory poll this week in The Times shows voters not wanting any tax rises, but demanding improved public services, oh, and the resignation of Rachel Reeves.

Infuriating. Cake and eat it comes to mind…

Then the public also wants to reduce immigration whilst nine million people of working age can’t/won’t work for various reasons, many, of course, quite legitimate. We have shortages of workers across a host of sectors from hospitality to care homes. Who today fills the gap, works hard and pays taxes? Oh, that will be immigrants then.

Add to this Reform UK topping opinion polls despite barely concealed, rabble rising racism being part of its raison d’etre. I love mixing a French colloquialism when it comes to Farage… The public thinks Reform is a one man band yet still it is ahead of Labour by eight percent regardless of any tested policies. Just unpleasant insinuations appear to be enough.

As the Financial Times says, ‘democracy can fail anywhere’…

Of course, much of the blame lies with mainstream politicians promising the earth but not the means to pay for it. This Labour government has tied itself in knots by refusing to raise core taxes against impossible earlier promises not to. Its solution is to leak a range of confidence busting peripheral taxes, thinking they can dishonestly trouser up to £40 billion in revenue without most people noticing. Good luck on that one.

Government is messy, complicated, balancing a range of competing interests. Institutions are moving too slowly to enact change and yet change is needed, not promises, quangos and endless reviews and enquiries. The public is in no mood for delay as the sense of drift that nothing gets done continues to gain ground, fuelled by polarised debates on social media.

A solution. The government gets competent, reviews its core tax policy, however painful, and introduces policies to cure sclerotic growth apace whilst Labour backbenchers wake up and support targeted cuts to benefits expenditure. The ‘small boats’ crisis also needs sorting. It might seem a distraction, but the public have had enough, and it is currently their top priority. Labour simply won’t get re-elected if they don’t.

In return? Voters need to accept those trade-offs on tax, cuts in public expenditure and immigration more generally. They also need to find within themselves more respect for the considerable challenges politicians face otherwise we simply get the politicians we deserve. Public life should be a two way street.

As the country slides unnecessarily into gloom, Churchill’s maxim that “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” has never seemed more apt…

It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.

Trump’s balance sheet: the good, the bad and the very ugly…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

So, lucky us. We get Donald Trump twice this year. First, playing golf in Turnberry with Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer rushing up to Scotland to pay homage and then the State visit in September. Umm…

Trump has dominated the headlines since day one of his presidency, hitting the ground running with a highly competent far-right team behind him, introducing some ground-breaking and irreversible domestic and international policies. You might not like him, but as with Farage, he is a transformative politician.

Trump swings into Scotland…

So, how does the balance sheet of Trump’s actions look as we head off for the summer holidays? Well, first the good, as it is the shortest part.

Trump was right to goad and threaten Europe into paying more for its own defence. Previous US presidents have urged this but have then done nothing to force Europe’s hand. There has always been a strong isolationist streak in America, and Trump has played this beautifully to get a 3.5 per cent of GDP defence spending commitment from European countries (ex-Spain). Second, immigration. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border has now fallen by 90 per cent on a month on month basis. Whatever you think of the merits of migration or the way Trump has treated this issue, the scale of illegal border crossings was storing up huge tensions in the US, even amongst many Democrat voters as southern states sent immigrants north to be housed. Obama was actually the toughest US president to curb numbers before Trump. Biden was hopeless. In thrall to his left-wing, he totally failed (as did Harris) to understand the strength of feeling on this issue across a majority of voters. Take note, Starmer.

OK, that’s enough ‘praise’. Now the bad. Tariffs do not work. They will potentially cause huge market inefficiencies and drive up prices. The consequences have yet to be felt. The rates are illogical across countries, although the overall impact might not be as great as earlier predictions indicated. Second, the recent tax bill. It strips Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party who pushed it through, ballooning the deficit in the process. What happened to fiscal conservatism? One senses the next global economic crisis might be driven by a fear of America defaulting on its debt, evidence demonstrated by the current weakness of the US Dollar.

Then the very ugly. There could be an entire book on this. Regardless of policy, it is the morality of leaders and their probity, which provides the bedrock to democracy. Trump simply lies, lies, lies. Perhaps an unsurprising trait in a convicted felon. Americans either don’t notice or don’t care about the State capture blatantly on view, whether it is Trump’s crypto-currency deals, the acceptance of a jet from Qatar or the fact that he, his family and ‘friends’ constantly trade on the broader influence of the presidency to enrich themselves. Next is the undermining of state institutions, the bullying of universities and arts generally in a drive to eradicate ‘political correctness’, the attempt to compromise an independent judicial process. The list goes on, but the ugly is also a fair description of fawning Western leaders who have swallowed their pride to accommodate Trump.

Finally, the lowest of the lows was how President Zelenskyy was treated in the White House in February. This was an iconic moment. Surrounded by individuals who had never fought, been under any military threat, and, in some cases, had dodged the Vietnam draft, it was a shameful episode. JD Vance’s behaviour was on this occasion, even worse than Trump’s. How dare they speak to a fellow president like that, representing a country under existential threat. This spectacle alone should be enough to justify a damning analysis of Trump’s presidency. The one silver lining is that Trump hasn’t had the opportunity to hand Ukraine to Putin and now understands the Russian leader isn’t quite the pal he thought he was.

The future? Who knows, as the Democrats sink to record levels of unpopularity and irrelevance. Will the presidency and federal institutions recover from four years of Trump? Will anyone realise the damage done by ineffectual checks and balances on centralised power? One doubts it. In a few years, which can’t come too soon, Trump’s emperor-like reign will end. But the hangover will be enormous.