Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
You just despair. All we wanted from Starmer was solid technocratic competence with a bit of integrity thrown in. We have tried charisma. It doesn’t work.
And crucially, if Starmer’s government was delivering it would have put a lid on the populism of Farage and Reform UK. The mistaken appointment of Mandelson would have been a sideshow.
So here we are with Starmer in crisis. Endless U-turns as Reeves gets the economy wrong, reforms to planning regulations, benefits, social care stalled. The government is going to miss many of its policy targets. The Epstein/Mandelson fiasco, which hardly fills you with confidence in vetting procedures, just adds to the narrative. But then hindsight is a great thing…
There is no alternative. Labour MPs should let Starmer get on with the job…
However, it is the response of fellow Labour MPs which is most depressing. Rayner, Streeting and Burnham on manoeuvres, none of which would improve the fortunes of this government. Spineless backbenchers running away from necessary reforms now plunging the knife into Starmer often as an act of leftwing revenge.
McSweeney, Starmer’s now former Chief of Staff, who advised on Mandelson’s appointment, is the scapegoat but that may not be enough. Labour currently has a death wish and seems unfit to govern as MPs put personal ambition and score settling ahead of stable government.
They should rally round Starmer and stop feeding the excitable agenda of the media. Yes, he has made many mistakes but can learn from them. He is good on overseas stuff. His main fault is that like Rishi Sunak, he is just not political enough. There are worse crimes.
The public wants steady government, not psycho dramas. They reach for Reform UK only in desperation.
If Labour MPs keeping feeding the narrative that Starmer is on his last legs, the Party should not be in office and deserves everything electorally that will come its way. But do the public deserve the ensuing chaos?
Kemi Badenoch just isn’t good enough. She will keep her job as there is currently no one else to take her place with the demise of Jenrick but that is hardly a ringing endorsement.
It is hard to know if she is good at anything…
To be fair, Badenoch’s performance at PM’s Question Time has improved but you could hardly have an easier target than Starmer’s government. As the fallout from the Mandelson/Epstein saga gains momentum, life will only get easier, temporarily, for the Leader of the Opposition.
But ‘temporarily’ is the key word. Badenoch is arrogant and doesn’t listen. She believes keeping the Tories close to the hard right is the way forward, fighting culture wars to fend off Reform UK whilst making what should be a relentless focus on economic competence a sideshow. One feels for the impressive Shadow Chancellor, Mel Stride.
So over to the launch of Prosper UK last week. Led by Sir Andy Street, a former Birmingham Tory Mayor and successful business leader of John Lewis, and Baroness Davidson, the former Scottish Tory leader, the best national leader the Tories never had, it offers a home to moderate Tories with a relentless focus on the economy. It aims to help Badenoch, not replace her.
I was at its launch. There were at least 250 supporters there. Whilst many familiar faces dated from pre-Brexit times, I was struck by new and younger faces. Street and Davidson outlined their appeal to seven million homeless Tory moderates. Economic competence, a focus on aspiration generally and business in particular, closer alignment with Europe, if nothing else to protect our security and defence, all made blindingly common sense.
Badenoch’s response? She dismissed the initiative, believing she is on a roll as the Tories hit a dizzying 20 per cent in the polls. There is no room for moderate centrists in her view while she obsesses about Reform’s agenda.
Former Tories will continue to drift to Reform UK or the underperforming Libdems as Badenoch flunks an easy lesson in how to land a ball in the back of the net.
A Trump free blog this week. No point dignifying his grotesque comments on NATO soldiers by repeating them or indeed reflecting on his half apology. If only the media would drop their minute by minute obsession with him too. Constantly repeating, analysing and damning Trump’s lies, exaggerations and U-turns is playing to his agenda. Just ignore him whenever possible although more difficult if you live in Minneapolis… We are all sick of the sight and sound of him.
So over to the hapless Labour government in the UK instead… It is in a hole but just keeps digging.
Labour politicians should park their personal ambitions until they have achieved something…
Starmer is a pretty useless PM. I thought he would be better than this. An uncharismatic technocrat who would get things done combined with a bit of integrity. Is that too much to ask? To his credit, he has had some success in overseas relations but it makes very little difference to his opinion poll ratings at home. He seems to have no domestic strategy. U-turn after U-turn just confirms the problem. It doesn’t help that he has few heavyweight colleagues. Lammy, Cooper, Reeves are either blowhards, out of their depth or both. The jury is out on Wes Streeting. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and John Healey at Defence seem good but they can hardly carry the government on their own. Collectively, ministers show no bravery in getting things done.
Despite all this, Starmer should be given more time. He must surely learn from some of his more obvious mistakes and now is not the time to change leader as the UK faces crises on all fronts. And let’s be clear. Andy Burnham is no solution. Vastly overrated, a self-indulgent lightweight, now blocked from standing in a by-election, he should finish his mayoral term and save us all the drama. The media are busy whipping up as much hysteria as possible about Burnham to cause Starmer trouble but shouldn’t be allowed to succeed. As for Wes Streeting. The best thing he could do is put his ego in a box and get on with turning around the NHS. That would be a legacy anybody would be proud of and far more important than being a mere PM.
Internal manoeuvrings in the Labour Party make voters despair. The government needs to focus on turning the country round, a job it has hardly started, not become a playground for self-indulgent personal ambition. No wonder people toy with Reform who, of course, would be no better.
Which takes me to the rare bright spot in British politics. The demise of Robert Jenrick. A vile little opportunist who his former colleagues and quite a few voters saw straight through. Reform are welcome to him, as they become a graveyard for mad, bad and dangerous second rate Tories. It allows Kemi Badenoch to focus on where she should have started, the economy stupid.
It may make the Tories more attractive again. They are climbing very slowly in the opinion polls. And if nothing else, that should focus the minds of Labour politicians on where they are needed, the national interest…
Just a week after calling Trump a rogue President, he goes rogue on Greenland, Europe and NATO.
Hands off, Trump!
It can’t be emphasised strongly enough. The US has no rights to Greenland and if Trump seizes it by force it would be the end of NATO. Europe would essentially be at war with the US. Incredible. Putin and Xi must be loving it and, consequently, the future of Ukraine and Taiwan now looks grim.
It is probably all negotiation tactics, but Trump cannot be allowed to treat allies like this. The US had 10,000 troops in Greenland which today is down to c150. It is partly America’s fault that currently Greenland is under defended. They could simply go back to having a larger military base.
Except… it is really Europe’s fault we are in this situation. Why leave it just to America to have a base there? There were apparently no NATO troops ex the US in Greenland. Last week in the face of Trump’s aggression, Britain has sent just one officer, France has sent 15 troops, Germany 13 and Norway two. 50 in all from Europe. Pathetic.
The only worthwhile legacy from Trump will be Europe getting its act together militarily.
In the meantime, I have just listened to Starmer’s statement on the crisis. Mealy mouthed triangulation. You can see why he fails to grasp the public’s imagination. His approach is no longer working. The US has just reneged on a tech agreement with the UK, negotiated in good faith, which we thought was in the bag. It is clear there is no longer any point in bending the knee to the US. Trump’s administration has provided much evidence that it just encourages greater contempt for ‘wishy, washy socialist’ Europe.
Europe needs to stand up to Trump once and for all. Any one party in the UK who doesn’t will not get my vote!
We await news on Iran. US involvement in the Middle East has gone so well in the past… but in terms of what we do know, Trump’s presidency had hit a new low at the start of 2026. Let’s look at four actions that truly appal:
A rogue President in action…
The invasion of Venezuela. No moral purpose to removing the illegitimate, thoroughly corrupt Maduro. Simply a blatant oil grab setting a precedent for dictators and wannabe dictators to invade at will. Only belatedly has Trump even acknowledged his ‘competitor’ for the Nobel peace prize, María Corina Machado, by far a more legitimate successor to Maduro than the his corrupt underlings who Trump is happy to support if they let American oil companies drill. What could possibly go wrong…
The shooting of an innocent, yes innocent woman driving away or at least having no intention of hitting an ICE agent, in Minnesota. Three shots were fired at her, two directly into the car through an open side window. If shots had to be fired, why weren’t they fired at the tyres? It might have something to do with the fact increasingly out of control ICE agents with the task of rounding up illegal immigrants now only have six weeks training, cut in the first place from a very short three months. She had just dropped her six year old child at school FFS. The blatant re-writing of the history of the event by Trump and JD Vance was pure extremism. Ok to kill a left-wing lesbian apparently… Interestingly, the FBI won’t allow local officials to investigate the incident.
Threats to Greenland and therefore the NATO Alliance. Trump is happy to take the country ‘the hard way’ as part of his Arctic strategy if Greenland/Denmark don’t capitulate. I don’t actually think he will invade but is doing his usual job of sowing chaos to move the agenda in his own favour. What a way to treat an ally whilst at the same time putting the whole western alliance at risk of disintegration.
And then this week attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve by steering US prosecutors to investigate its Chairman, Jay Powell, over the renovation of its headquarters, because he won’t cut interest rates when Trump wants him to. You really hope markets punish the US if Trump gets his way and makes the Fed a pawn to his whims.
To add to a growing list, there is the constant undermining of independent judicial processes, the bullying of institutions such as the takeover of the ‘Trump’- Kennedy arts center, the enrichment of the Trump family, the blatant lies when any of Trump’s cabinet open their mouths, the insults to European allies, the cosying up to Putin and downgrading of China, allowing it to catch up with the US all that more quickly.
Trump has a net approval rating of -17%, similar to his first term. This is very weak driven mainly by unhappiness over the cost of living, but incredibly 39% of voters still approve of Trump’s presidency. It is surely time for a dose of morality to be injected into US political debate. When you are the world’s only superpower voters cannot just focus on domestic affairs. The problem is the whole US political system is deeply flawed which sometimes makes stark comparisons of Trump versus others harder to make. But it is time for a reset.
Trump is a rogue president and can only be shamed, not by impotent, increasingly unhappy Republican members of Congress, but by dynamic leadership from the Democrats and the emergence of a clear presidential contender. Umm… good luck on that one.
First, let’s be clear on Venezuela. My brother lived and worked there. I spent a week in Caracas before visiting Angel Falls, dodging firebombs. What should be one of the world’s richest countries through oil is a poverty stricken, corrupt mess. Chavez and Maduro plundered its resources for personal gain. Good riddance to Maduro.
And yet. And yet… the manner reflects the worst attributes of Trump’s regime. It sets a precedent for China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine let alone America/Greenland which would essentially put the US at war with NATO allies. Presidents Xi and Putin must be rubbing their hands with glee.
Brave or foolhardy. Predictions for this year are hard to make…
As mentioned before, the prediction from a Sky News commentator that Trump’s world view is to carve the globe between three strongmen (Trump, Xi and Putin) is becoming uncomfortably true.
Which takes me to my predictions for 2026 via a review of those for 2025… I actually got 5 out of 9 correct, 2 half correct and 2 completely wrong. That makes a net 6 out of 9. Umm… Not too bad but I must apologise for the terrible mistake of saying Trump might well be more benign than expected. This overshadows all the rest. To be fair to me… I quickly corrected this formally in my blog of 19th February (worth another read) but that’s no excuse. My initial focus was to worry about what comes next after Trump rather than be concerned about the clearly malign, well prepared Trump II.
Anyway, sticking to the positives:
• Labour would have a terrible year but some glimmers of progress would be seen at the end of 2025. Progress yet to be seen. Half correct.
•Despite mutterings Starmer would remain PM. Correct.
• The Tories would have a terrible year and flatline at best in the polls. Correct.
• Reform UK would have a strong year, but with clear signs by end of 2025 they have peaked. This is starting to show in opinion polls along with tactical voting to defeat them. Correct.
• The CDU/CSU in Germany would see off the AFD and win power. AFD are a force to be reckoned with but correct.
• China would have a miserable year but would not invade Taiwan in 2025 to distract attention. Actually, Trump has made it a great year for China, and an invasion of Taiwan is still firmly on the agenda. Half correct.
• The war in Gaza would end but on Israel’s terms. Correct.
• Trump would force a tougher settlement on Ukraine than Russia wants. No sign of that so far.Incorrect.
Over to 2026. Such is global uncertainty, to resist foolhardiness and protect my reputation, I have decided to apply odds to my predictions…
Starmer will remain PM. Labour is poor at replacing leaders and there is no clear successor. There actually might also be glimmers of hope in the government making progress if it can learn from its endless mistakes. 60/40.
Badenoch, the Tory leader, will keep her job. A disaster in May’s local elections is now ‘priced in’, her opponent, Jenrick, is seen as increasingly weird in his desperate desire for the top role and a formal alignment with Reform UK would be the end of the Tories. There are no other clear successors. 60/40.
In focusing on the economy, the Tories will pick up a little in the polls at Reform UK’s expense who will be seen to have peaked despite a strong performance in May. 70/30.
There will be an uneasy peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Neither will be happy but Russia will have the upper hand and hostilities at a certain level will continue. 70/30.
There will be no invasion of Taiwan by China this year but preparations will continue aided by Trump setting precedent with his actions towards Venezuela. 80/20.
Trump’s malign and maverick unpredictability will continue. He and his advisors are running down the clock towards the mid-terms where the Democrats (still hopeless) should take the House of Representatives curtailing at least Trump’s domestic agenda. His actions, however, will stop short of seizing Greenland. Even Trump might baulk at essentially going to war with NATO allies but expect a much larger US/Greenland military base and action in Cuba. 80/20.
No predictions for Europe.Elections are mostly local and although populists will perform strongly it is too early to tell how predictive that will be nationally. Politics will be dominated by the war in Ukraine and, for the UK, the prospect of closer EU alignment.
So, there we are. Six hedged predictions for 2026. The question is not how accurate my odds are on likely outcomes, but what I may have missed altogether. A challenge for all commentators, small and large…
Why are politicians of many mainstream parties not coming clean? I am thinking of Labour, the LibDems and exiled Tories. They shy away from support for joining the single market or full scale EU membership for fear of opening old Brexit wounds.
A bold move on closer EU alignment might just be what this government needs…
Grow a backbone. Recent opinion polls are damning of Brexit. Only 31% of voters now think it was the right decision to leave the EU. 61% of voters say Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. Johnson and the Conservative Party take the most blame followed by a host of former Tory leaders and, of course, the lovely Nigel Farage. This is why it will be a long road back to power for the Conservatives and why this blog believes we are ‘enjoying’ peak support for Reform UK who have flatlined on 27% of the vote share.
Just pop the impact of Brexit into AI. UK GDP is 6-10% lower than it would have been without Brexit, business investment is 12-18% lower, productivity 3-4% lower, jobs are 1.8 million fewer, UK trade has fallen relative to our economy’s size. The list goes on. Brexit has been a disaster. And that is before the changed national security environment where the whole of Europe is threatened by Russia.
The Labour government are tip toeing back into the EU’s ambit. It is called a ‘pragmatic reset’ apparently. Ties are deepening through agreements on trade such as a veterinary agreement, recognition of professional qualifications etc. but it is painfully slow. It has just been announced that the UK is finally set to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from 2027. Whoopee!
Government is painfully slow. It is why Labour is being so punished in the polls. Surely aligning with the EU at least in terms of the single market would be a bold and mostly popular move, particularly as leaving the EU has hardly curbed immigration…
Of course there is one major blockage. The EU currently really doesn’t want the psycho drama of Britain rejoining the EU, particularly with Reform UK riding high in the polls. And I guess, who could blame them?
What a mess. The UK political system has done huge damage to our economic future and national security, from the referendum itself to the way we left the EU. Moderate politicians of all parties should make this clear and move fast to correct the impact. You never know, it might even help them at the polls…
P.S. One more blog this year. I promise it will be festive…😁
A wise Sky News commentator said about Trump before his election that his world view was just to carve up the globe between three admirable (in his eyes) strongmen; Xi, Putin and himself. This amoral/immoral approach with little role for democracy appears to be the driving force behind the Trump administration’s new national security strategy published last Friday.
It trashes Europe, warning the continent is ‘subverting democracy’ and faces ‘civilisational erasure’ from high migration. What a load of nonsense and all this coming from a government that is domestically subverting the rule of law, issuing pardons to murderers (January 6th) and drug traffickers. And that is before wide scale state capture as Trump and his cronies enrich themselves at home and abroad, mixing foreign affairs with private business interests.
This sorry national security strategy goes on to attack the EU generally but depicts Russia as no longer a security threat. Selling out Ukraine seems to be a priority, reinforced by a disgraceful interview with Trump yesterday. Meanwhile, China is pushed down America’s list of priorities and consequently, its power grows ever stronger. Lastly, not covered by this document is the mismanagement of India, a future superpower in its own right which is being driven into the arms of Putin via sanctions. And what is the obsession with Venezuela?
The US under Trump and JD Vance can no longer be seen as a friend of democracy or a remotely reliable ally of the UK or Europe. Perhaps the Sky News commentator was too cautious in his assessment of Trump…
It all makes grim reading and grimmer listening. I am a news junky but during my recent trip to the US felt the need to avoid any television, being sick of the sight and sound of Trump.
Sick of the sight and sound of him…
Then back at home, culturally, as the Trump administration seeks to row back from any form of political correctness on the grounds of ‘freedom’, Trump not only threatens universities, museums and media outlets, but has starkly seized control of the Kennedy Center now referring to it as the Trump Kennedy Center. At the weekend, Trump personally hosted the Center’s annual honors gala, politicising the whole event, rewarding his cronies in front of a MAGA friendly crowd. No wonder ticket sales generally at this venerable institution have plummeted.
The damage Trump is now doing to the fabric of this nation is incalculable. Collapsing approval ratings for Trump’s actions are no protection and focus turns increasingly to the mid-term elections next year to curtail his power. Democrats, responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place and currently in disarray, are not guaranteed to win. Incalculable damage may turn into irreversible damage and that is very bad news for all of us.
You don’t have to be corrupt. You don’t have to be a narcissist. You don’t have to hire sycophants. You don’t have to govern with a fictional narrative. You don’t need to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War and put a frat boy in charge. But you DO need to be ruthless. Muscular if you like.
Many moderates hand-wring. They triangulate. They often dine rather than campaign. They fear offending people and often back off. They surrender the political agenda to those that don’t do this; mainly the ideological hard right.
Trump versus most Democrats is a classic example.
Trump is setting a ruthless agenda of shrinking the federal state, rowing back on political correctness, diversity initiatives, regulation generally. Raw negotiating power is everything. You name it and he is trying to do it with a highly effective team behind him. The Democrats? Their leaders prevaricate. Trapped between left and right activists within, they are overwhelmed at the speed of Trump’s initiatives.
You might not like him, but he gets things done…
In policy terms how does this play out? Let’s start with foreign affairs. In the Middle East, whilst Biden largely sat on the fence, Trump twisted the private parts of Netanyahu to bring an end to the war in Gaza – the only (obvious) solution whilst threatening total war on Hamas. The same may happen in Ukraine where Biden supported the Ukrainian war just enough for survival but not enough to strike a real blow at Russia and force a peace deal. Trump is threatening to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as he runs run out of patience and ups the tempo since Putin is not succumbing to his charms. Surprise, surprise, a second Putin/Trump summit is now scheduled. Trump may sell out Ukraine as he (wrongly) doesn’t see this war as involving American interests. What we do know is that he will pursue a deal ruthlessly and I would be nervous if I were Zelenskyy.
President Carter couldn’t rescue Iranian hostages, Clinton had to be forced by Blair to enter the Balkan wars, Obama failed to act when Russia took over Crimea and, despite red lines, failed to take action on Syria’s use of chemical weapons, with grim results. On NATO, endless presidents, to be fair not just Democrat ones, urged allies to spend more on defence and failed. Trump whilst chaotic, moved the dial and NATO members have upped their contribution. One of his many weaknesses is his attention span but at least you understand Trump is not to be messed with.
But it is domestic politics where Trump currently rules supreme whilst divided Democrats ineffectually flap around. Endless rather scary initiatives pour out from Trump’s administration to stop immigration dead, reshape the federal government and gerrymander the legal system. The list is endless. It is awful to watch but you cannot deny Trump’s muscular approach works if getting things done matters.
Democrats need to get real. Head to the centre, pursue voters’ concerns ruthlessly on immigration, law and order, tackle inflation and be tough but supportive of allies and ruthless with enemies.
US voters embraced Nurse Trump for fear of something worse. When will Democrats get it and become muscular in their moderatism?
Reasonable, reasonable, reasonable. That is the only way to describe Labour’s conference. My, the government has had a grim start and needs to deliver, but it is the only game in town.
Two speeches stood out for me. Wes Streeting, a gifted orator, seems to be making waves in the NHS. In a good way. His embrace of technology, cutting bureaucracy, and forcing GP surgeries to be more flexible is convincing. The NHS has had a ton of money thrown at it, so Streeting better deliver, but it feels a reasonable start.
Then, Starmer’s speech. He had a spring in his step, possibly because his stalker, Andy Burnham, blew up at the conference. An interview telling voters he would not be dictated to by bond markets just emphasised his trouble making naivety. He is a lightweight, and it showed.
Starmer had a good week… finally…
Starmer was finally passionate about the country he leads, ripped into Farage, and Reform with legitimate force and comprehensively outlined what his government was seeking to achieve. He was moderate but passionate. Above all, reasonable, a rare trait in democratic politics currently.
The reason I have never voted Labour is its management of the economy. The state always gets bigger when a Labour government is in power, public expenditure runs out of control, and aspiration never seems to be a priority. But even this government knows we can not continue in this direction. It needs business, it needs to free up the economy, it needs to get people off benefits and back into work. Delivery is key, the next budget crucial and backbenchers surely now realise they have to fall into line when tough decisions are required.
Farage and Reform are vile. You can understand the frustrations that has put this merry band ahead in the polls, but they would tear the country apart. The LibDems remain irrelevant, and the Tories are only just beginning to understand their route back to power is the economy, stupid.
If your politics are mainstream, Starmer’s government is the only game in town for now. Labour reassured this week.
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