Tag: news

Republicans cower to Trump; they will suffer the consequences in the end…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’

Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.

A President out of control…

He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.

Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.

Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.

Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.

Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.

Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.

Populism always self-destructs in the end but it may take a while…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.

Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…

But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.

Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.

Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.

The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.

Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.

All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.

Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.

Germany: the most consequential election of the year

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Germany has been losing its way. A weak, squabbling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and the FDP has been a disaster for the country. Growth for Europe’s largest economy has been stalling, and it is all at sea on Ukraine.

That is in addition to what we know in hindsight was the less than perfect Chancellorship of Angela Merkel. The charge sheet against her is growing. Too much immigration which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, giving up nuclear power, leaving it reliant on Russian gas until recently, and failing to invest in Germany’s infrastructure all happened under her watch. She was in power for too long.

The results on Sunday allow Germany a reset. The CDU/CSU bloc is almost certainly going to form the next government perhaps in a grand coalition with the SPD. Friedrich Merz will be the new Chancellor ushering in a welcome (and rare) moderate centre-right government. He will shake things up.

Merz brings a welcome change to German politics

But before that, let’s just deal with the rise of the far-right extremist AfD, supported by the increasingly loopy Elon Musk. They did very well with 20% of the vote and are not to be underestimated. But they did NOT win and will not form a government any more than Reform in the UK is going to do so in the UK. There is no room for complacency, but there is a ceiling to the support for these types of parties. The best way of countering them is for mainstream parties to deliver in government. Starmer, with his ‘flexible’ ideology, knows this only too well, and so, I suspect, does Merz.

So back to the new German government. It is early days but Merz is rightly giving up on Trump (not America) – indeed he has been undiplomatically rude, wants to strengthen Europe’s defence unlike his vacillating predecessor, Scholz, and will focus on growing the German economy whilst tightening up immigration. Just being decisive is a good start.

Trump may well be heading for a backlash in his treatment of Europe. He is at peak power and there is only one route from here and that is downwards. Transactional politics works both ways… A rejuvenated Germany led by the CDU/CSU, a reinvented, patriotic Labour Party in the UK and more determination from the likes of France, Italy and others, all spending more on defence, may just be the boost that Europe needs and long overdue.

Every cloud has a silver lining so thank you Donald Trump. But the next four years cannot come quickly enough…

Sclerotic Britain: Endless enquiries are no way to govern

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Trump has hit the ground running. You may not like what he is doing, but my, the speed and decisiveness of his actions is impressive. He only has four years, and he knows he needs to deliver fast as the attention span of voters increasingly diminishes. Democrats take note.

Meanwhile, trundling Britain makes slow or almost no progress on anything meaningful partly mired in a glut of public enquiries. Held to examine complex issues in depth their real purpose more often seems to be about kicking difficult decisions into the long grass. In no particular order, here are just a few examples:

Grenfell

Set up after the terrible fire in June 2017, it completed its review only in 2024. The full list of recommendations has not been implemented and some elements may never be. The future of Grenfell Tower (it is to be demolished) has only just been announced. Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Police are investigating possible criminal manslaughter and corporate manslaughter charges but, nearly eight years later, no action has actually been taken.

Enquiries go on and on and nothing seems to get done…

Phone hacking

This public enquiry was set up in July 2011 to examine press standards and, to be fair, reported in November 2012. But in 2018 Leveson (the Chair) accused ministers of breaking promises to phone hacking victims. A second report to consider the extent of improper conduct and governance failings by individual newspaper groups, how these were investigated by the police, and whether police officers received corrupt payments or inducements was never initiated.

Social care

This is perhaps the most important example of government incompetence (in terms of the number of people affected) as social care descends into chaos, blocking the ability of the NHS to function properly. After several false starts by previous governments and proposals sprung on the electorate by Theresa May in the 2017 General Election which directly led to her ‘defeat’, the current Labour government, after three decades, has just announced a third independent Commission into adult social care. It will not report until 2028. Need I say more.

Post Office Horizon IT

This enquiry was set up in September 2020. Public hearings have concluded, but there is now a period of what is known as Mawellisation of the report when anyone who is criticised in the report has a reasonable opportunity to respond. No end date has been set for the enquiry’s final conclusions.

Covid

The Covid enquiry was set up in June 2022. No end date has been set although the final public hearings are set for 2026. As a comparison, the Swedish Covid public enquiry was set up in 2020 with the final report published in 2022.

Infected blood

An inquiry into the infected blood scandal when over three thousand patients died unnecessarily from illnesses such as HIV and hepatitis was originally set up in 1985. Outrageously, only in 2022 did the then government announce interim compensation payments. Many of the victims had died. The final report was published in 2024, and full compensation has yet to be paid.

The list of enquiries goes on, and victims regularly and publicly voice their frustration at the slow progress. Findings and recommendations take years to implement, if ever. No wonder voters feel politicians care little about their plight and that no-one is truly held accountable (who was ever jailed for the irresponsible actions which caused the 2007/2008 financial crash and, regardless of Covid, over a decade of austerity?). It fuels the belief that the government doesn’t work in the ordinary person’s best interests.

Government needs to speed up and act fast if it is to avoid being subsumed by populism borne out of pure frustration. The above public enquiry examples are just a small but totemic cause of voter disillusionment.

Can you imagine Trump being held back by any of the above as he pursues his four year agenda apace?

Why Trump is teaching the Establishment a lesson…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Trump has started with few surprises. Shocking Cabinet picks, drill baby drill initiatives, soldiers sent to police the borders and pardons for the Jan 6th rioters, some of which undertook serious acts of violence.  People died.

Yawn… I braced myself for all this the moment he got elected. Perhaps only the fawning tech bro oligarchs got to me. Best to keep calm and carry on.

He mostly fails to surprise – his actions are ‘priced-in’…

And yet, how has it come to this?

Answer: because a complacent, arrogant Democrat and moderate Republican establishment let it happen. It reminds me of the complacency of the Tory Left before Thatcher swept through the Conservative Party.

Uncontrolled immigration, inflation, erosion of industries in the ‘flyover’ states, excessive political correctness culminating in defund the police initiatives (just look at how San Francisco was governed), and intrusive federal bureaucracy. Yet a deaf ear was turned to all of this.

Biden did many good things about which he failed to communicate, but in particular ignored the consequences of inflation and illegal immigration. Harris had no guiding philosophy except not to be Trump. The likes of Obama and Clinton continued to patronise voters backed up by Hollywood celebrity endorsements. Even I was in despair at the end of the campaign.

Core voters need core policies and blunt communications to make them understand politicians get it and will move the dial to make their lives better. Sometimes, if that means playing to some of their prejudices, so be it. Trump got that. The Establishment didn’t.

Trump will do a few consequential things domestically, but not many. He probably has a two year window at best, and checks and balances (yes, they still exist) will slow him down.

Internationally, where he has four years of relatively unfettered power, Trump could be a disaster over China, Russia, NATO, and free trade.

Personally, I have always thought character matters in politics. Ultimately, this is a guide to whether a politician is a good person who really cares about voters’ concerns. Trump, a convicted felon, a fraud, does not, but he might just get some things done the Establishment thought was beneath them.

In Europe as in the US, moderates should learn from Trump and start listening to core voters. Otherwise, Trumps will spring up and win elections everywhere. Not because they are liked by most voters but because out of frustration, they appear a better option for getting things done.

2025 may surprise on the upside…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

My uncharacteristic mild optimism may only be due to too many right-wing commentators reading the last rites for liberal democracy. But there you go. They, rather than me, might be disappointed…

It is time for 2025 predictions but also to review those for 2024. Umm…

  • The Tories will go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation – an easy tick
  • The Tories will move further to the Right after the election – tick
  • Trump will not win the presidency… to be fair this prediction was changed in June after Biden’s disastrous debating performance but still… – a rather large cross
  • The populist Right will make gains in Italy, Germany and France – tick
  • Putin will win in Russia (tongue in cheek!) and Modi in India. Modi lost his populist majority but governs in a coalition – tick
  • The war in Ukraine will grind on but Western resolve will hold up – tick
  • Netanyahu will not survive the year as Israel’s Prime Minister – cross

2025 will be a bumpy year, but perhaps not as bad as expected...

Five out of seven predictions were correct, but I would have sacrificed them all just to be right about Trump. Hey, ho. Perhaps I underestimate the attraction of populists.

So why some optimism for 2025? Well, mainly because populist support has been ‘priced in’, and too many people are dancing too heavily on the grave of moderates. Here we go:

  1. Trump will not be the all-conquering extremist many predict and may surprise on the upside. Janan Ganesh from the Financial Times at my Company’s investment seminar last November predicted Trump would be uncontrollable simply because he doesn’t face re-election. I am not so sure. Despite a largely competent start in picking his rather extreme Cabinet, he probably only has two years to make a difference before Congressional elections give back the House to the Democrats (an early 2026 prediction). As argued before, many of his policies are contradictory, his Cabinet is likely to be ineffectually chaotic, he has softened on Ukraine (though right to challenge Europe on defence expenditure), he might just want to be a little more popular in his final years or may simply lose interest in governing radically or governing at all.
  2. Labour will have a torrid time (its communications skills are still hopeless), but it has four years, and glimmers of progress towards its targets will appear by the end of 2025. The UK will appear a beacon of stability internationally, and this will ultimately benefit the government.
  3. Starmer will lead Labour throughout 2025 and into the next General Election despite mutterings.
  4. Reform UK will have a strong year but are close to peaking. Don’t underestimate the hostility of a large proportion of the electorate towards Farage and the likes of his backers such as Trump/Musk. Although Farage and Musk now appear to have fallen out. What a shame.
  5. The Tories will have a terrible year and will flatline in the polls. Badenoch has not found her feet yet and seems to have forgotten the Tories’ way back to power is to regain their reputation for economic competence. Too early, I know, but she is unlikely to lead her Party into the next General Election. Such turmoil in the main opposition party will benefit Reform but also Labour.
  6. It is too early to predict events in France although things do not look promising but there will be better news in Germany. The unstable largely left-wing coalition will be heavily defeated in February, ushering in a centre-right CDU/CSU coalition government despite the rise of the extreme AfD.
  7. A miserable year for China. Slowing growth, a possible trade war with the US and Xi’s dominance starting to grate across the country means there will be no move on Taiwan despite bellicose noises. China simply cannot afford the economic consequences, particularly when they are also losing ground to their unfriendly neighbour, India.
  8. Not least Russia/Ukraine. See first prediction above. Trump will eventually force a tougher peace solution on Putin over Ukraine than Putin wants. Putin is winning the war but at great human and economic cost. A Trump led ‘solution’ will probably involve greater support for Ukraine from Europe, guarantees on borders, but not fully on Ukraine’s terms and no NATO membership. It is 50/50, whether the war ends this year. Even this blog knows when not to put your neck out…
  9. Lastly, the Middle East. The war in Gaza will end this year but on Israel’s terms.

That’s it folks. A roller coaster of a year but optimism is based on the fact that progress towards the death of liberal democracy will stall…

Happy New Year!

Fundamental contradictions at the heart of Trump’s policies

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I was going to use the term ‘cognitive dissonance’ but it hardly resonates in a title to a blog… and it refers to when a person holds two contradictory ideas at the same time. It is not strictly relevant in that Trump doesn’t have a philosophical drive and won’t have thought anything through. The phrase, however, does imply that failing to resolve such contradictions can lead to irrational decision-making. Umm… Perhaps it is the right term after all.

Flickers of optimism as the next four years are likely to be about grift not protofascism…

Trump is threatening sweeping tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico, reversing the trade agreement with the latter two countries signed during Trump’s first presidency. As we know, he also wants to expel undocumented immigrants too. Here are some contradictions:

  • There is a housing shortage in the US. Trump has promised to build, build, build. But an irritating fact for him is that one in four construction workers are undocumented immigrants. Expelling them will undermine one key policy objective whilst meeting a parallel promise.
  • Most independent economists believe tariffs will add 3-4% to domestic inflation. Trump has promised to reduce the cost of living and something will have to give.

The contradictions will multiply so the question, you might ask, is will Trump’s picks for Cabinet have a restraining influence? I doubt it. All have been nominated by showing total loyalty to Trump, in some cases reversing past views as required. There are few even relative moderates (perhaps Marc Rubio and Michael Waltz in foreign affairs) and Trump is unlikely to listen to his ‘colleagues’ consistently or even at all. Trump hates Washington, is totally reliant on his own self-belief, and has flooded Congress with scandal-ridden nominees to challenge the system. The alleged sex trafficker, Michael Gaetz as Attorney General, was a dare too far and Pete Hegseth at Defense may be another one but, regardless, it will be a partially anarchistic Cabinet showing total fealty to their President.

So, how will it all play out? Too early to tell, of course, but the hope is chaos reigns and little gets done and/or Trump simply loses interest two years in and goes (possibly mentally) AWOL. Green initiatives to manage climate change, for example, particularly in the face of an oil glut will outlive Trump. As a colleague commented, the next four years will be about grift not protofascism as Trump and his friends line their pockets.

You can probably give up on moderate Republicans so the real secret to a happier longer-term future is the Democrats. They will have to get their act together, stand for something meaningful in the eyes of potential core voters and develop potential presidential candidates with charisma and gravitas in the process. Today, that seems a long shot.

There are flickers of optimism, but Trump will have the upper hand for some time. Oh dear indeed…

Moderate Americans resigned to a Hard Right future…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

As I head back to London from NYC, my week over here has confirmed Trump is running rampant. This time he is also well organised. With a clean sweep of Congress politics is moving to the extremes confirmed by Trump’s Cabinet post picks which are quite frankly extraordinary. Here are just a few of them:

Kristi Noem – Homeland Security Secretary. Famed for boasting about shooting her dog in a recent auto-biography, she is as hard right as you could get and will have sweeping powers to deport.

Pete Hegseth – Defense Secretary barring an alleged sexual harassment case. A former Fox News host and army veteran, he believes women should have no combat role.

Matt Gaetz – Attorney General. This appointment has shocked even Trump supporters. He is facing allegations of sex crimes, is in favour of defunding the FBI and would literally destroy legal structures in the US. Uniformly loathed, many people didn’t even know he had any legal qualifications.

Elon Musk/Vivek Ramaswamy – joint heads of a newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The latter, former Republican nominee contender is just ridiculous, and Musk with billions in government contracts can’t move without tripping over a potential conflict of interest.

The list goes on. A fracking champion in charge of energy, an anti-vaxxer in charge of health, and a Putin sympathiser in charge of the intelligence agencies…

Politics is going to get very ugly here but America voted for it…

Trump’s intentions are clear. There will be no safe guards in place to rein him in. The only modest bright spot is John Thune winning the leadership of the Senate. An establishment Republican, he might bring some sanity to proceedings, but bearing in mind Trump will lead by terrorising any opposition, one doubts it.

The agenda is set, and America voted for it. Mass deportations, the slate of all Trump’s legal woes wiped clean, massive tax cuts with the rich getting richer, environmental regulations torn up, and vendettas pursued against any perceived enemy of Trump. Overseas, Ukraine sold out, Taiwan under greater threat, Israel allowed to run rampant and tariffs ending global free trade, in the process driving up inflation. Oh, and the Trump family and its allies preening themselves with their noses firmly in the public trough. Politics is going to get very ugly here.

As for the Democrats, their defeat is entirely their fault. Too much noise about identity politics, failing to grip illegal immigration, extremists within their ranks undermining law and order by stripping the police of powers and/or funds such as in San Francisco. Despite Biden’s decency and some policy successes, in the campaign they had nothing to say to those who should have been their core voting base. Add to that Biden stepping down too late to allow a competitive race for the Democratic nominee, and their defeat was sealed. Patronising interventions from former Democrat presidents and ridiculous endorsements from celebrities as a substitute for policy hardly helped either.

Grounds for optimism? For all the Republicans’ success, this country is pretty much split 50/50 in vote share. Hard right MAGA extremists are only polling at 6%. The rest of Trump supporters are mostly just frustrated with government and, often, rightly so. Such is the scale of the Democrats’ defeat, they must surely reform themselves. The last president to shrink the size of government was actually Clinton, who took 400,000 off the government payroll so they can change their spots. Trump only has 4 years left and may blow up well before then. Musk is already rubbing people up the wrong way, and some nominations are even shocking core Republican supporters.

Lastly, as I gladly return to London, for all of Labour’s faults, with the rise of the populist Right across democracies, the UK looks a bastion of stability and must surely embrace closer European integration… so, not all bad then…

Trump’s clarity of message won him the presidency

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The result was almost a foregone conclusion before the first votes were counted. Reality triumphed over hope.

Polls have been showing for weeks that Harris’s lead was narrowing generally and amongst ethnic minority voters in particular. Evidence, against the grain, that Republicans were voting early in large numbers was also a body blow to Democrats. Only Trump’s dark rhetoric in the closing days gave grounds for optimism for those who felt positivity would win it for the Vice-President.

Trump’s victory was a triumph of reality over hope…

Then, in the early hours of this morning, exit polls at both a state and national level showed immigration and the economy were the leading issues of concern. 70 per cent of those polled believed the US was heading in the wrong direction. Very bad for incumbents.

Further evidence for geeks of voting trends came later in the evening from a breakdown of ballots cast in the increasingly right-wing state of Florida. Trends were all ominously heading in the wrong direction in previously hugely safe Democrat counties.

It was going to be a long night for the Democrats.

To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  Even the unpopular Ted Cruz in Texas held his seat easily. Trump unchecked is now a scary possibility.

Perhaps America was not ready for a black female president from California, but with abortion also being a key issue, this doesn’t feel quite right.

Harris had nothing to say on immigration, failing to spell out the details of a belated measure to curb immigration blocked in Congress to protect Trump. She had little to say on the economy either, failing to recognise, however unfairly, the need to distance herself from Biden. She was simply too woolly in the face of belligerent voters, not an accusation you could level at Trump. As Janan Ganesh said in the FT, voters knew exactly what they were voting for with Trump, not with Harris.

The US now feels like a very right-wing country, following a trend in Western democracies generally. Trump could do untold damage to the fabric of democracy there and drive illiberal reforms aided by partisan judicial appointments.  Tyrants globally could be rewarded by the new Administration with Ukraine literally sold to Russia. Then there is the unaccountable influence of some billionaires generally on US public life…

The UK is now an outlier of centrist politics. Moderate and therefore increasingly lonely. Our influence on the world stage may be small, but we should still be very grateful indeed for what we have.

America on the edge…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

The political news from the US is thoroughly depressing. An increasingly erratic Donald Trump, profane and peddling untruths, has closed the gap with Kamala Harris. She is now only 2% ahead in the popular vote and, more importantly, behind in 5 of the 7 swing states. Admittedly the polls can’t be relied upon when the vote is so close, particularly at state level where it is really 50/50 across all 7 states.

Trump closes in on Harris…

How can this be? Two excellent journalists from the Financial Times, Janan Ganesh and Edward Luce, seem to have the answer. Trump stands for something which reassures even relatively moderate voters. Nobody can say they don’t know what they are voting for when casting their ballot. Voters may not like Trump’s personality, but he has a clear edge on the economy and immigration and he is seen to be able to put a protective arm round a country which feels somewhat beleaguered. This is despite the fact economic activity is actually booming and inflation falling, courtesy of many of Biden’s policies. As for issues like Putin/Ukraine. They don’t get a look in.

Harris on the other hand is vague. Undoubtedly an improvement in voters’ eyes on Biden, she is too ill defined on a range of policy issues, has no convincing answer to the impact of past high inflation (who could?) and is seen as weak on immigration. Her stance on abortion where she rightly has a strong lead may not save her. Overall, a bit of this and a bit of that policy-wise is not enough at the margin for such a polarised electorate. No amount of effort from Barak Obama and celebrity endorsements (please stop, they only antagonise the electorate, conforming to Republican accusations of elitist Democrat stereotypes) seems enough.

So, what would a Trump presidency involve. Here are a few educated guesses…

  • Capitulation to Putin on Ukraine threatening the whole of Eastern Europe
  • The possible fatal undermining of NATO
  • Encouragement for China to invade Taiwan
  • Trump escaping court on a range of criminal cases
  • The US deficit soaring by US$7.5 trillion as tax cuts for the rich fail to ‘trickle down’
  • A final end to the benefits of globalisation as US trade tariffs are imposed, stoking inflation in the process
  • Environmental safeguards torn up, speeding up the impact of global warming
  • Billionaires increasing their undue influence on politics
  • Another swing to the Right for an increasingly polarised, unaccountable Supreme Court
  • No prospect for gun controls, even a loosening of what few already exist
  • Restrictions on abortion creeping in at a federal level
  • The real prospect of a phony civil war between states although, to be fair, this might happen under the Democrats

The US is such a blessed country with so much talent but feels on a steep decline. The electorate is gloomy and, in this mood, the character of their president and the intentional or unintentional consequences of another four years of Trump do not seem to matter. When buyer’s regret sets in, it will be too late for the US and the rest of us.

Fingers crossed that, against the odds, Harris totters over the line…