Labour and the media should calm down and let Starmer get on with the job…

You just despair. All we wanted from Starmer was solid technocratic competence with a bit of integrity thrown in. We have tried charisma. It doesn’t work.

And crucially, if Starmer’s government was delivering it would have put a lid on the populism of Farage and Reform UK. The mistaken appointment of Mandelson would have been a sideshow.

So here we are with Starmer in crisis. Endless U-turns as Reeves gets the economy wrong, reforms to planning regulations, benefits, social care stalled. The government is going to miss many of its policy targets. The Epstein/Mandelson fiasco, which hardly fills you with confidence in vetting procedures, just adds to the narrative. But then hindsight is a great thing…

There is no alternative. Labour MPs should let Starmer get on with the job…

However, it is the response of fellow Labour MPs which is most depressing. Rayner, Streeting and Burnham on manoeuvres, none of which would improve the fortunes of this government. Spineless backbenchers running away from necessary reforms now plunging the knife into Starmer often as an act of leftwing revenge.

McSweeney, Starmer’s now former Chief of Staff, who advised on Mandelson’s appointment, is the scapegoat but that may not be enough. Labour currently has a death wish and seems unfit to govern as MPs put personal ambition and score settling ahead of stable government.

They should rally round Starmer and stop feeding the excitable agenda of the media. Yes, he has made many mistakes but can learn from them. He is good on overseas stuff. His main fault is that like Rishi Sunak, he is just not political enough. There are worse crimes.

The public wants steady government, not psycho dramas. They reach for Reform UK only in desperation.

If Labour MPs keeping feeding the narrative that Starmer is on his last legs, the Party should not be in office and deserves everything electorally that will come its way. But do the public deserve the ensuing chaos?

Tory leader misses an open goal…

Kemi Badenoch just isn’t good enough. She will keep her job as there is currently no one else to take her place with the demise of Jenrick but that is hardly a ringing endorsement.


It is hard to know if she is good at anything…

To be fair, Badenoch’s performance at PM’s Question Time has improved but you could hardly have an easier target than Starmer’s government. As the fallout from the Mandelson/Epstein saga gains momentum, life will only get easier, temporarily, for the Leader of the Opposition.

But ‘temporarily’ is the key word. Badenoch is arrogant and doesn’t listen. She believes keeping the Tories close to the hard right is the way forward, fighting culture wars to fend off Reform UK whilst making what should be a relentless focus on economic competence a sideshow. One feels for the impressive Shadow Chancellor, Mel Stride.

So over to the launch of Prosper UK last week. Led by Sir Andy Street, a former Birmingham Tory Mayor and successful business leader of John Lewis, and Baroness Davidson, the former Scottish Tory leader, the best national leader the Tories never had, it offers a home to moderate Tories with a relentless focus on the economy. It aims to help Badenoch, not replace her.

I was at its launch. There were at least 250 supporters there. Whilst many familiar faces dated from pre-Brexit times, I was struck by new and younger faces. Street and Davidson outlined their appeal to seven million homeless Tory moderates. Economic competence, a focus on aspiration generally and business in particular, closer alignment with Europe, if nothing else to protect our security and defence, all made blindingly common sense.

Badenoch’s response? She dismissed the initiative, believing she is on a roll as the Tories hit a dizzying 20 per cent in the polls. There is no room for moderate centrists in her view while she obsesses about Reform’s agenda.

Former Tories will continue to drift to Reform UK or the underperforming Libdems as Badenoch flunks an easy lesson in how to land a ball in the back of the net.

Personal ambition over national interest… no wonder voters despair of politicians…

A Trump free blog this week. No point dignifying his grotesque comments on NATO soldiers by repeating them or indeed reflecting on his half apology. If only the media would drop their minute by minute obsession with him too. Constantly repeating, analysing and damning Trump’s lies, exaggerations and U-turns is playing to his agenda. Just ignore him whenever possible although more difficult if you live in Minneapolis… We are all sick of the sight and sound of him.

So over to the hapless Labour government in the UK instead… It is in a hole but just keeps digging.

Labour politicians should park their personal ambitions until they have achieved something…

Starmer is a pretty useless PM. I thought he would be better than this. An uncharismatic technocrat who would get things done combined with a bit of integrity. Is that too much to ask? To his credit, he has had some success in overseas relations but it makes very little difference to his opinion poll ratings at home. He seems to have no domestic strategy. U-turn after U-turn just confirms the problem. It doesn’t help that he has few heavyweight colleagues. Lammy, Cooper, Reeves are either blowhards, out of their depth or both. The jury is out on Wes Streeting. The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, and John Healey at Defence seem good but they can hardly carry the government on their own. Collectively, ministers show no bravery in getting things done.

Despite all this, Starmer should be given more time. He must surely learn from some of his more obvious mistakes and now is not the time to change leader as the UK faces crises on all fronts. And let’s be clear. Andy Burnham is no solution. Vastly overrated, a self-indulgent lightweight, now blocked from standing in a by-election, he should finish his mayoral term and save us all the drama. The media are busy whipping up as much hysteria as possible about Burnham to cause Starmer trouble but shouldn’t be allowed to succeed. As for Wes Streeting. The best thing he could do is put his ego in a box and get on with turning around the NHS. That would be a legacy anybody would be proud of and far more important than being a mere PM.

Internal manoeuvrings in the Labour Party make voters despair. The government needs to focus on turning the country round, a job it has hardly started, not become a playground for self-indulgent personal ambition. No wonder people toy with Reform who, of course, would be no better.

Which takes me to the rare bright spot in British politics. The demise of Robert Jenrick. A vile little opportunist who his former colleagues and quite a few voters saw straight through. Reform are welcome to him, as they become a graveyard for mad, bad and dangerous second rate Tories. It allows Kemi Badenoch to focus on where she should have started, the economy stupid.

It may make the Tories more attractive again. They are climbing very slowly in the opinion polls. And if nothing else, that should focus the minds of Labour politicians on where they are needed, the national interest…

The slow painful walk back from Brexit…

Why are politicians of many mainstream parties not coming clean? I am thinking of Labour, the LibDems and exiled Tories. They shy away from support for joining the single market or full scale EU membership for fear of opening old Brexit wounds.

A bold move on closer EU alignment might just be what this government needs…

Grow a backbone. Recent opinion polls are damning of Brexit. Only 31% of voters now think it was the right decision to leave the EU. 61% of voters say Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. Johnson and the Conservative Party take the most blame followed by a host of former Tory leaders and, of course, the lovely Nigel Farage. This is why it will be a long road back to power for the Conservatives and why this blog believes we are ‘enjoying’ peak support for Reform UK who have flatlined on 27% of the vote share.

Just pop the impact of Brexit into AI. UK GDP is 6-10% lower than it would have been without Brexit, business investment is 12-18% lower, productivity 3-4% lower, jobs are 1.8 million fewer, UK trade has fallen relative to our economy’s size. The list goes on. Brexit has been a disaster. And that is before the changed national security environment where the whole of Europe is threatened by Russia.

The Labour government are tip toeing back into the EU’s ambit. It is called a ‘pragmatic reset’ apparently. Ties are deepening through agreements on trade such as a veterinary agreement, recognition of professional qualifications etc. but it is painfully slow. It has just been announced that the UK is finally set to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from 2027. Whoopee!

Government is painfully slow. It is why Labour is being so punished in the polls. Surely aligning with the EU at least in terms of the single market would be a bold and mostly popular move, particularly as leaving the EU has hardly curbed immigration…

Of course there is one major blockage. The EU currently really doesn’t want the psycho drama of Britain rejoining the EU, particularly with Reform UK riding high in the polls. And I guess, who could blame them?

What a mess. The UK political system has done huge damage to our economic future and national security, from the referendum itself to the way we left the EU. Moderate politicians of all parties should make this clear and move fast to correct the impact. You never know, it might even help them at the polls…

P.S. One more blog this year. I promise it will be festive…😁

Starmer is back, and Labour is the only option… for now…

Reasonable, reasonable, reasonable. That is the only way to describe Labour’s conference. My, the government has had a grim start and needs to deliver, but it is the only game in town.

Two speeches stood out for me. Wes Streeting, a gifted orator, seems to be making waves in the NHS. In a good way. His embrace of technology, cutting bureaucracy, and forcing GP surgeries to be more flexible is convincing. The NHS has had a ton of money thrown at it, so Streeting better deliver, but it feels a reasonable start.

Then, Starmer’s speech. He had a spring in his step, possibly because his stalker, Andy Burnham, blew up at the conference. An interview telling voters he would not be dictated to by bond markets just emphasised his trouble making naivety. He is a lightweight, and it showed.

Starmer had a good week… finally…

Starmer was finally passionate about the country he leads, ripped into Farage, and Reform with legitimate force and comprehensively outlined what his government was seeking to achieve. He was moderate but passionate. Above all, reasonable, a rare trait in democratic politics currently.

The reason I have never voted Labour is its management of the economy. The state always gets bigger when a Labour government is in power, public expenditure runs out of control, and aspiration never seems to be a priority. But even this government knows we can not continue in this direction. It needs business, it needs to free up the economy, it needs to get people off benefits and back into work. Delivery is key, the next budget crucial and backbenchers surely now realise they have to fall into line when tough decisions are required.

Farage and Reform are vile. You can understand the frustrations that has put this merry band ahead in the polls, but they would tear the country apart. The LibDems remain irrelevant, and the Tories are only just beginning to understand their route back to power is the economy, stupid.

If your politics are mainstream, Starmer’s government is the only game in town for now. Labour reassured this week.

Panic over Starmer’s judgement; calm down and carry on…

It’s the media at its worst, and it’s Starmer at his worst.

All the right-wing media and quite a selection of other media too are circling the government with a little help from Starmer’s enemies in the wider Labour Party. Stop it. If not Starmer, then it will be Farage, not Badenoch (the Tories are currently dead in the water until they find a new long-term leader with real ability), Davey, or anybody else. If that’s not what you want, Starmer is pretty much the current best hope of preventing populism from succeeding in this country. For those who think Farage won’t be a problem, be very careful what you wish for. A Reform government in any shape or form would be a disaster and a betrayal of all the moderate values this country is known for and has worked so hard to defend. That is what we should be proud of, not the damn flag and the 110,000 out and proud Tommy Robinson racists who despoiled the streets of London at the weekend.

Give him a break, he has Donald Trump in the UK to contend with…

Starmer has got things wrong and has seemed hopelessly flat-footed, but he is hardly responsible for Rayner’s tax affairs. He certainly got Mandelson’s appointment wrong, but it is not impossible to see why you might want Britain’s best trade negotiator in Washington and that bit of the equation probably paid off.

As far as who might replace Starmer, the much mooted Andy Burnham is a blow hard who’s alleged successes as mayor of Manchester were brought down to earth in the Sunday Times at the weekend. Why on earth would a so-called ‘soft left’ politician solve our current problems? I met a Labour peer relatively recently who was my opponent in Manchester Withington when I stood for parliament many years ago. He damned Burnham with very faint praise, saying he was only as good as the people around him. Umm…

Let alone the Trump visit this week, the budget in November must be relatively error free, and Starmer also needs to acquire some emotional intelligence in dealing with his colleagues. That would go a long way to easing some current resentments. But make no mistake about it. Labour colleagues and even many in opposition parties should wish him well because the current alternative according to opinion polls is not a refreshed Labour government under a new leader but something very unpleasant indeed. It would make divisions over Brexit seem like Halcyon days…

It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

‘Logical’ Conservatism is the way to defeat populism

As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…

It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.

The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:

  • The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
  • Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
  • The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
  • The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
  • That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
  • The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…

Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.

Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism

Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.

Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.

If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.

Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…

Starmer is improving all the time but will get little credit

Managing Trump relatively successfully, a US/UK trade deal, a UK/India trade deal, a new compact with the EU. Despite the devil being in the detail, Starmer should get a pat on the back.

Being PM is a thankless task…

He won’t, of course. None of the above will get the UK back to a pre-Brexit nirvana. They barely get us to the starting line, and few voters will see any immediate impact.

The narrative has been set. All mainstream politicians are useless at best, dissembling voters to hide their inadequacies. Starmer is no exception.

Reform, according to many voters, tells it as it is. Excessive political correctness, an interfering state, too much immigration that Labour lovies secretly like. Then, the government cosies up to Europe, selling the fisheries industry down the river, so to speak.

Just a reminder on the latter, the fisheries industry contributes 0.03% to the UK economy. 70% of agricultural output is sold to Europe. This has been made immeasurably easier because of this week’s deal.

But in a world of populism, there is little rational debate. Scare tactics, yah-boo exchanges, and downright lies dominate debate, not facts.

For Starmer, what can he do? Very little. It will be a hard slog to the next election. He will need to prove NHS waiting lists are falling, immigration is falling, and the economy is growing with tangible benefits, including an increase in housing supply.

It would help if he had a clearer philosophical narrative. This blog likes his non-ideological pragmatism, but it makes it harder to explain the ultimate destination he is trying to reach.

However, he has one major advantage. The increasingly haplessness of today’s Tory Party. Starmer will be able to differentiate himself much more clearly from Reform at the next election than in the days when it used to be a competitive race with the Tories.

Until then, it will be an uphill, thankless battle. Who would go into politics?

What is the point of a Labour government?

In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.

What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.

Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government

In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.

Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.

But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.

Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.

Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.

There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.

My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.

Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.