Tag: labour

‘Logical’ Conservatism is the way to defeat populism

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…

It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.

The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:

  • The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
  • Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
  • The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
  • The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
  • That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
  • The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…

Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.

Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism

Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.

Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.

If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.

Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…

What is the point of a Labour government?

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

In one word: competence. There has been such a shortage of it from UK governments in recent years that justifying this attribute would be enough.

What we don’t need is ideology. It led nowhere for Labour under Corbyn in Opposition and led the country over the cliff under Johnson/Cummings and Truss. Add in a lack of ideological compromise over EU membership, leading to Brexit, and the disaster of such an approach is clear.

Competence over ideology should be the point of this Labour government

In recent times, perhaps only Margaret Thatcher made ideology work. But she was competent, the country was badly off course, and her free market ideology often cloaked a good deal of compromise.

Over the pond, Trump, with his tariffs, DOGE, and embrace of strongmen/billionaires, represents a sort of anti-democratic philosophy that may also take his Administration over a cliff. One hopes so, although the consequence of Europe having to finally stand up for its own defence provides some compensation.

But back to the Labour government. It seems to be gradually finding its feet, and not just in international relations. Only Labour can reform the NHS and benefits system free from the charge of hard-hearted malice. Tackling unsustainable disability benefits and stripping the not fit for purpose NHS of some of its bureaucracy by abolishing NHS England is a good start to proving its ideological flexibility.

Prior to that, cutting the international aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure again strikes a blow for practicality over principle. Labour from the centre-left got away with it lightly. Even the Tories could not disagree.

Governing is messy. Unpredictable events drive the best laid plans off course. Competing priorities means good government has to compromise. Competence is everything, and that alone will dictate voters’ impressions of whether Starmer and co. deserve a second term.

There is so much more to do. Further NHS reform, changes to the planning system, initiatives to make the civil service and local government more efficient are all badly needed and now. This government needs to go further and faster but not with the burden of ideological certainty.

My betting today is that Labour will win the next election with an increased share of the vote but a sharply reduced majority. This is a similar prediction to that made by Jacob Rees-Mogg at a Spectator magazine meeting I attended! We shall see, but in the face of such hopeless Tory Opposition, they should do.

Today, it feels like a successful Labour government is the only barrier to highly damaging polarised politics washing up on our shores.

Another good week for Labour…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

There is so much to write about… The ANC has lost its majority in South Africa and Trump has been criminally convicted on all 34 accounts in the hush-money case. More on the latter topic next week when I am based in New York for a few days. I can’t wait!

Now to the General Election in the UK. It has been another good week for Labour which has extended its lead in several opinion polls. Despite indications that the public likes some of the Tories’ new policy ideas such as National Service, they are making no impact on the party’s fortunes. Why is this?

The electorate has simply made up its mind. It is time for a change, and it would have to be a truly momentous incident for this settled view to be revised. Sunak is campaigning like an underdog opposition leader bouncing around with new ideas to try and attract attention. Starmer, meanwhile, is saying very little and campaigning more like a prime minister. Very wise and the contrast in styles has not escaped the notice of voters to Starmer’s benefit.

Looking and sounding tough on the hard left whilst reinstating Diane Abbott…

Of course there will be bumps in the road for Labour but one of them is not the row over whether Diane Abbott should be a formal Labour candidate or not. Actually, it has just been announced she can stand as an official Labour candidate in her constituency. A not very insightful column from Stephen Bush of the FT suggests all this brutal factionalism is showing Labour’s not very nice, machine politics side. Nonsense.

Labour has always been criticised for being too nice, not ruthless enough. Hence the Tories’ never-ending election success. The deselection of Corbyn and the row over the suspension and reinstatement of Diane Abbott just shines a light on how tough Starmer has been in clearing out the hard left. It reinforces the narrative that Labour has changed under Starmer, and nothing will get in the way of it attaining power. In other wording, despite whinging from the sidelines by a few journalists and Labour activists, Starmer emerges stronger from all this.

So far, the election campaign has been thoroughly boring. Only the TV debates and the last few anxious days in the run-up to election day will liven things up. In the meantime, round 2 to Labour.