The result was almost a foregone conclusion before the first votes were counted. Reality triumphed over hope.

Polls have been showing for weeks that Harris’s lead was narrowing generally and amongst ethnic minority voters in particular. Evidence, against the grain, that Republicans were voting early in large numbers was also a body blow to Democrats. Only Trump’s dark rhetoric in the closing days gave grounds for optimism for those who felt positivity would win it for the Vice-President.

Trump’s victory was a triumph of reality over hope…

Then, in the early hours of this morning, exit polls at both a state and national level showed immigration and the economy were the leading issues of concern. 70 per cent of those polled believed the US was heading in the wrong direction. Very bad for incumbents.

Further evidence for geeks of voting trends came later in the evening from a breakdown of ballots cast in the increasingly right-wing state of Florida. Trends were all ominously heading in the wrong direction in previously hugely safe Democrat counties.

It was going to be a long night for the Democrats.

To add insult to injury, Republicans are likely to hold both the Senate and the House of Representatives.  Even the unpopular Ted Cruz in Texas held his seat easily. Trump unchecked is now a scary possibility.

Perhaps America was not ready for a black female president from California, but with abortion also being a key issue, this doesn’t feel quite right.

Harris had nothing to say on immigration, failing to spell out the details of a belated measure to curb immigration blocked in Congress to protect Trump. She had little to say on the economy either, failing to recognise, however unfairly, the need to distance herself from Biden. She was simply too woolly in the face of belligerent voters, not an accusation you could level at Trump. As Janan Ganesh said in the FT, voters knew exactly what they were voting for with Trump, not with Harris.

The US now feels like a very right-wing country, following a trend in Western democracies generally. Trump could do untold damage to the fabric of democracy there and drive illiberal reforms aided by partisan judicial appointments.  Tyrants globally could be rewarded by the new Administration with Ukraine literally sold to Russia. Then there is the unaccountable influence of some billionaires generally on US public life…

The UK is now an outlier of centrist politics. Moderate and therefore increasingly lonely. Our influence on the world stage may be small, but we should still be very grateful indeed for what we have.

The political news from the US is thoroughly depressing. An increasingly erratic Donald Trump, profane and peddling untruths, has closed the gap with Kamala Harris. She is now only 2% ahead in the popular vote and, more importantly, behind in 5 of the 7 swing states. Admittedly the polls can’t be relied upon when the vote is so close, particularly at state level where it is really 50/50 across all 7 states.

Trump closes in on Harris…

How can this be? Two excellent journalists from the Financial Times, Janan Ganesh and Edward Luce, seem to have the answer. Trump stands for something which reassures even relatively moderate voters. Nobody can say they don’t know what they are voting for when casting their ballot. Voters may not like Trump’s personality, but he has a clear edge on the economy and immigration and he is seen to be able to put a protective arm round a country which feels somewhat beleaguered. This is despite the fact economic activity is actually booming and inflation falling, courtesy of many of Biden’s policies. As for issues like Putin/Ukraine. They don’t get a look in.

Harris on the other hand is vague. Undoubtedly an improvement in voters’ eyes on Biden, she is too ill defined on a range of policy issues, has no convincing answer to the impact of past high inflation (who could?) and is seen as weak on immigration. Her stance on abortion where she rightly has a strong lead may not save her. Overall, a bit of this and a bit of that policy-wise is not enough at the margin for such a polarised electorate. No amount of effort from Barak Obama and celebrity endorsements (please stop, they only antagonise the electorate, conforming to Republican accusations of elitist Democrat stereotypes) seems enough.

So, what would a Trump presidency involve. Here are a few educated guesses…

• Capitulation to Putin on Ukraine threatening the whole of Eastern Europe
• The possible fatal undermining of NATO
• Encouragement for China to invade Taiwan
• Trump escaping court on a range of criminal cases
• The US deficit soaring by US$7.5 trillion as tax cuts for the rich fail to ‘trickle down’
• A final end to the benefits of globalisation as US trade tariffs are imposed, stoking inflation in the process
• Environmental safeguards torn up, speeding up the impact of global warming
• Billionaires increasing their undue influence on politics
• Another swing to the Right for an increasingly polarised, unaccountable Supreme Court
• No prospect for gun controls, even a loosening of what few already exist
• Restrictions on abortion creeping in at a federal level
• The real prospect of a phony civil war between states although, to be fair, this might happen under the Democrats

The US is such a blessed country with so much talent but feels on a steep decline. The electorate is gloomy and, in this mood, the character of their president and the intentional or unintentional consequences of another four years of Trump do not seem to matter. When buyer’s regret sets in, it will be too late for the US and the rest of us.

Fingers crossed that, against the odds, Harris totters over the line…