Tag: General Election

Tories damned by latest YouGov poll…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It has not been a good start to the political season for the Tories. The concrete debacle in schools plays directly into Labour’s narrative and voter concerns more generally that the country just isn’t working under this government. The problem for the Tories is that after 14 years in power, however unfair on some issues, there is nowhere left for them to hide.

But this morning’s YouGov poll outlined in The Times is the most startling confirmation yet of the Tories’ decline. This blog is being written whilst travelling, so no images, I am afraid, but what could capture these results…?

Over half the public will not contemplate voting Conservative at the next election. The Conservative Party is seen as just too right wing on all major issues, specifically public service spending. Only on transgender rights and illegal migration is there some alignment, but these are not priorities for the electorate.

Sunak is the most competent PM since a pre-Brexit Cameron, but he seems not to be resonating with the electorate. Only 26% think he is doing a good job, and he has a terrible approval rating of minus 41% capped only by the Tories’ approval rating of minus 48%. Starmer is in smaller negative territory but is less popular than his party. Ironically, that is not a bad place to be.

Labour is starting to feel like a government in waiting and with a few positive policy announcements, could clean up at the next election. 2024 is certainly starting to feel like 1997, even if there is not the same enthusiasm as there was for Blair.

As for the Conservative Party, it needs to move towards the centre. If the siren voices of its right-wing prevail, it is game over for a generation.

The Bernie Sanders effect comes to the UK

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The reverberations of the crash of 2007/8 continue to be underestimated and the public is sick of austerity. Expectations for the Labour Party were so low that it has also been easy for them to outperform and Corbyn is quite the natural campaigner. Despite his largely inept front bench he has looked and sounded fine and he is now our own Bernie Sanders, stirring young voters in particular with a mixture of indignation and largesse. The response from the Conservative Party has been wooden and flat footed at best and that is being polite.

Why have the Conservatives been so hopeless? First, manifestos certainly matter when they are re-written mid-campaign….and it was also enormously complacent to assume that Theresa May on her own was enough to secure a substantial victory. Few leaders can withstand the scrutiny of an election campaign unscathed so to make the election about one person was high risk. Several members of the front bench have been scandalously under-used and that takes me back to that manifesto. It is under-pinned with sound principles and has been appallingly defended but why weren’t key cabinet ministers given a final say over the most controversial parts? The need for secrecy is obvious but unelected special advisers are not sufficient substitute for elected politicians who understand the ebb and flow of an increasingly fickle electorate. David Cameron had George Osborne. Theresa May has to enjoy her job more, trust her colleagues more and find an equivalent. She will not survive another five years being so isolated which is a shame when she comes from a reasonable place in terms of intentions.

This election has been dull in content and periodically interrupted by the tragic terrorist events in Manchester and London. We will all be glad when it is over. My feeling is that the Conservatives will win, probably even comfortably, but not as convincingly as they could have done. The UK’s version of Bernie Sanders has got away with far too much. Let’s hope the lessons of the election campaign already emerging are taken on board so that an amended style of Government allows Theresa May to enhance her effectiveness, particularly in the face of Brexit.

Snap UK election could mean a smoother Brexit

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, today called a General Election for 8 June. She will have to negotiate around the Fixed Term Parliaments Act which prohibits early General Elections without a two thirds majority.

However, as Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party Opposition Leader, has already welcomed the election, this shouldn’t be a problem.

So what are the implications of this Election? Obviously, short term uncertainty and a media agenda which will be further dominated by political concerns. Longer term, however, this is likely to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand and ironically that of the soft Brexiteers which is good for the Financial Services sector generally.

If, as the current opinion polls suggest (Conservative lead of 9-23%, weak Labour leadership etc), the Conservatives win the election, Theresa May will have a stronger hand in confronting the Hard Brexiteers in her own party, negotiating terms much more amenable to a smoother exit.

The pro-European Liberal Democrats are also likely to gain seats and the weak Labour Leader will subsequently be replaced most likely by a stronger and more pro-European candidate offering stronger opposition. The Scottish National Party north of the Border may do well but so might the Conservatives too from a rock bottom base. The UK Independence Party are hugely diminished. So, all in all, on balance, good news for Remain/soft Brexit supporters.

Coming hot on the heels of the general election in the Netherlands and the first round of the French election due this coming weekend, clearly today’s decision simply adds another level of complexity to the European project.

From a communications perspective, it will be interesting to see the manifesto promises and debates from each party over the coming weeks, and whether this may present any challenges – or indeed opportunities – for investment firms.

Longer term analysis of what this all means for Britain and its future can only be seriously considered once the election has taken place but even in these turbulent times, this – at least for now – seems one of the more predictable elections in terms of the likely result.