Hopeless. For Kemi Badenoch, the clock is ticking. An indifferent performer so far, lacking charisma, she is compounding error after error. No policies yet, except for one; chasing Reform as they top an opinion poll in The Times. Seemingly in response, she has just announced ruling out permanent residence for migrants on benefits. The Tories will always be Reform-lite whatever their dog-whistle policies and yet it is a cul-de-sac they seem happy to run into.

A new Tory leader, already under pressure…

Centrist, moderate Tories should be really angry about the direction of their Party. Cameron called a Brexit vote to see off the threat from the Right. That failed. Johnson’s Brexit deal was a triumph of style over damaging substance. Let’s ignore Truss and Sunak (too depressing) and focus on Badenoch. She is, so far, simply failing to reset the Party, still obsessed by culture politics and immigration with the deeply unpleasant, newly minted anti-immigrant Robert Jenrick (her leadership opponent), snapping at her heels.

A former Cabinet Minister, a friend of mine, said the Tory Party had to move to the Right to defeat populist right-wing forces. Well, that went well, didn’t it? Reform is now topping the polls; the Tory Party is almost wholly an anti-immigration Brexit party now but that still isn’t enough. Languishing at 21% in the polls (third place), its positioning has been a disaster. One aspect of recent opinion polls has also been overlooked. The Tory Party has made zero progress in winning back LibDem voters, crucial for any electoral success.

I was watching a re-run of the Brian Walden interview with Steve Coogan (Walden) and Harriet Walter (Thatcher). Brilliant, and politics is all the poorer for audiences failing to engage with a long-form, incisive political interview. But what struck me, for all the anti-EU rhetoric in losing her Chancellor, Lawson, was Thatcher’s commitment to a single market. It remained undiminished, understanding that concept was in the best interests of Britain. She rarely got sidelined. Economic prosperity was everything. She must be turning in her grave now.

The Tories need to ignore Reform and re-build a credible party based on economic competence and aspiration. They need to argue for their own reset on Europe, particularly with the likelihood of a sympathetic centre-right government being elected in Germany. With Trump in situ, making some concessions for joining a customs union would add to the Tories’ credibility (outside their shrinking, increasingly right-wing membership base), but if not that, further involvement in European defence and cooperation is a no-brainer.

Except, the Tory Party has shown little brains for some time. It is why it is where it is with no prospect of changing anytime soon. It worries only about its Right flank. If I were Labour, Reform or LibDem, I would be in a very happy place right now, at least relatively.