Populism always self-destructs in the end but it may take a while…

The very nature of populism contains the seeds of its self-destruction. It is led by individuals who don’t care about their voters and who are usually incompetent at governing. But, most importantly, populism is based on conflicting aims. It is the latter which does for it in the end. The only problem is how much cumulative damage is done when populist regimes are in power. It can be a while before they are found out.

Waiting for populism to have its comeuppance will take patience…

But please indulge me. Let’s start with an amusing little theatrical performance from Reform UK. They have struck a nerve with the electorate in the UK and are (were) ahead in the opinion polls. The only problem is their 5 MPs are falling out spectacularly. Some guy called Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, has just attacked Farage’s leadership only to be stripped of the whip due to allegations of bullying and threatening the Party Chair, Zia Yusuf. He has been offered the chance to form a new far-right party with ex-Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib, who also fell out with Farage. Elon Musk was a fan of Lowe versus Farage, apparently, and that is probably at the heart of this dispute. Meanwhile, and more importantly, Reform UK have been forced into silence due to their support of Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the UK. The US, under his leadership, is no longer even seen as an ally of the West according to the latest opinion polls despite a potential Ukraine peace deal – on what terms?). Oh dear. This all might be short-term turbulence for Reform, but it confirms this blog’s opinion that the party has a natural ceiling of support, which is lower than most observers think.

Anyway, on to the populist with real power, Donald Trump. He, too, is beginning to hit turbulence, although still hugely popular with his core base. Tariffs may really hurt the ordinary American voter soon and that is reflected in the worse period for the US stock market since 2022 with Tesla losing 15% alone. The latter is beginning to feel like a bitcoin investment. US inflation and therefore interest rates may well end up higher and growth lower as a result of Trump’s policies although currently he doesn’t seem to care. We shall see.

Elsewhere domestically, more conflicted aims are appearing. A purge of immigrants will hit higher house building, an election promise of Trump. A move away from climate related policies will challenge the US lead in green technology. The unelected, unaccountable Elon Musk is causing chaos in government departments. When even toilet attendants in national parks are a target to be fired, let alone the threat to the existence of national parks themselves, how will the average voter feel? Walking away from vaccination policies is already contributing to a measles surge in Texas. The list goes on, and, increasingly, Democrat run states will simply absorb the role of federal government themselves.

The law of unintended consequences is also washing across the globe. In threatening Canada not only through tariffs but more broadly, it has partly led to the departure of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau, to be replaced by an even more determined opponent of Trump, Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor. The Liberals are surging in the polls versus the mildly pro-Trump Conservatives who were a shoo-in in an Autumn election. Canada is now distinctly hostile to the US.

Over in Europe, countries are getting their act together on defence to support Ukraine with the wider aim of neutralising a disengaged US, which might even leave NATO. To be fair, peace is back on the US/Ukraine agenda, but it is very early days, and the US has to prove it can bully Russia, too. European powers have to be polite towards the US for now to buy time, but this might not last as the US remains an unreliable partner at best. For the UK, it smooths the path to greater European integration. Thank you, President Trump.

All this makes the US seemingly aligned with strongmen Presidents Xi and Putin, which might be what an out of control Trump administration wants. US opinion polls are, however, particularly hostile towards Russia. Combine this with a worsening economic backdrop and natural democratic allies preparing to walk away from the US, and the long-term impact for Americans could be disastrous.

Trump is surely at peak power, and his populist legacy may not last beyond him outside diehard MAGA supporters. How much damage is done and how quickly it is noticed will be key to his tenure along with Democrats getting their act together. Don’t hold your breath. It may all take a while even if populist self-destruction happens in the end.

In the face of adversity, Starmer comes into his own…

I am not a Labour supporter, but I have always liked Starmer. Why?

First, and wisely, he doesn’t rely on charisma. Politics is not a game, and we are all tired of dishonest, charismatic personalities who are fundamentally incompetent, and that is only in the UK… Starmer is solid, serious, uncharismatic, and ideologically flexible. He held a big job successfully as Director of Public Prosecutions and, despite an uncertain start, now seems to be applying those skills to the role of PM.

After an uncertain start, Starmer seems to be finding his feet and that should be a relief to everyone…

Second, let’s explore that ideological flexibility. Life is too complex and too chaotic to assume a set ideology provides answers in all scenarios. Needs must. Starmer, only elected in 2015, is certainly centre-left but no idealogue. He supported Corbyn out of necessity whilst maintaining support for membership of the EU. He promptly ran for the leadership, promising to continue Corbyn’s policies before ditching them after victory. He suspended Corbyn from the Labour Party on the issue of anti-semitism. In office, he cut the winter fuel allowance, will tackle sickness benefits, and has slashed foreign aid to support an increased defence budget.

He is also ruthless. He fired Sue Gray, his chief of staff, for failing to get the politics right. He dismissed his Transport Secretary for misdemeanours he knew about when appointing her and failed to appoint his long-standing Shadow Cabinet colleague, Emily Thornberry, to any ministerial post for reasons unknown. Apparently, he doesn’t like the tittle tattle of ordinary politics and is not particularly clubbable. Good!

Starmer’s government has taken unpopular economic decisions, some of which are a mistake by sticking to past rash fiscal promises. But they were taken early in his administration. He is moving closer to the EU generally but cautiously and now takes the lead on Ukraine, treading a careful line between his allies and a rogue US presidency which makes the US in all but name a former ally. The latest act by Trump of suspending aid to Ukraine is, quite frankly, incredible and a waste of all the financial support the US previously provided.

He seems to be finding his feet, has four more years, and should make the most of this stability. In such an uncertain world with such little choice in domestic politics, we must hope Starmer, and his government succeed.

Germany: the most consequential election of the year

Germany has been losing its way. A weak, squabbling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and the FDP has been a disaster for the country. Growth for Europe’s largest economy has been stalling, and it is all at sea on Ukraine.

That is in addition to what we know in hindsight was the less than perfect Chancellorship of Angela Merkel. The charge sheet against her is growing. Too much immigration which has fuelled the rise of the AfD, giving up nuclear power, leaving it reliant on Russian gas until recently, and failing to invest in Germany’s infrastructure all happened under her watch. She was in power for too long.

The results on Sunday allow Germany a reset. The CDU/CSU bloc is almost certainly going to form the next government perhaps in a grand coalition with the SPD. Friedrich Merz will be the new Chancellor ushering in a welcome (and rare) moderate centre-right government. He will shake things up.

Merz brings a welcome change to German politics

But before that, let’s just deal with the rise of the far-right extremist AfD, supported by the increasingly loopy Elon Musk. They did very well with 20% of the vote and are not to be underestimated. But they did NOT win and will not form a government any more than Reform in the UK is going to do so in the UK. There is no room for complacency, but there is a ceiling to the support for these types of parties. The best way of countering them is for mainstream parties to deliver in government. Starmer, with his ‘flexible’ ideology, knows this only too well, and so, I suspect, does Merz.

So back to the new German government. It is early days but Merz is rightly giving up on Trump (not America) – indeed he has been undiplomatically rude, wants to strengthen Europe’s defence unlike his vacillating predecessor, Scholz, and will focus on growing the German economy whilst tightening up immigration. Just being decisive is a good start.

Trump may well be heading for a backlash in his treatment of Europe. He is at peak power and there is only one route from here and that is downwards. Transactional politics works both ways… A rejuvenated Germany led by the CDU/CSU, a reinvented, patriotic Labour Party in the UK and more determination from the likes of France, Italy and others, all spending more on defence, may just be the boost that Europe needs and long overdue.

Every cloud has a silver lining so thank you Donald Trump. But the next four years cannot come quickly enough…

Trump’s America is no longer an ally of Europe

Trump is awful. A liar and that is not a word to be used lightly. Yesterday, he gave a press conference accusing Ukraine of starting the war with Russia, that the US has given US$500 billion in aid to Ukraine when it is closer to US$100 billion in direct, mainly military aid which benefits many US industries. He also commented that Zelenskyy ‘s approval rating is 4% when it is 57% and parroted Putin’s propaganda online questioning the authenticity of Zelenskyy ‘s rule.

Listen to the brilliant podcast ‘The Rest is History’ on Chamberlain negotiating away the Sudetenland with Hitler without the Czechs present at the infamous Munich conference in 1938. The similarity with Trump/Putin/Ukraine is uncanny as America sits down to negotiate away Ukraine’s sovereignty with Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe have been invited to participate.

What does Putin have on Trump except a psychological hold on Trump’s love of strong, violent anti-democratic leaders?

Zelenskyy knows who his friends are and they don’t currently reside in the White House

This blog’s prediction that Trump wouldn’t be as bad as many critics feared is looking somewhat shaky currently.

Trump’s Ukraine comments come on top of Vice President JD Vance’s speech at a security conference, guess where, in Munich…, claiming the biggest threat to Europe came from within (lack of freedom of speech) rather than Putin. Try telling that to the relatives of murdered opponents of Putin in Russia or the suffering people of Ukraine.

Of course, Trump and Vance have a point in demanding that Europe stands up for itself versus Russia rather than the US always bailing it out. It is a policy articulated by many previous US presidents and wrongly ignored. No longer. Trump’s lasting legacy may be to unite Europe militarily, although it may take a while as they row about European boots on the ground to keep a future peace in Ukraine.

The US is now an amoral, possibly an immoral country politically. Everything is transactional. There is no sense the current Administration believes democratic values trump authoritarian rule. In fact, it is the reverse. Europe (ex the far-right) better learn to live without an ally across the Atlantic for the time being.

America voted for America First, not Putin, Xi, or any other quasi dictator first. Perhaps American voters do not care, but they will eventually find out the two aims are incompatible. Let’s hope it is not too late by then.

Sclerotic Britain: Endless enquiries are no way to govern

Trump has hit the ground running. You may not like what he is doing, but my, the speed and decisiveness of his actions is impressive. He only has four years, and he knows he needs to deliver fast as the attention span of voters increasingly diminishes. Democrats take note.

Meanwhile, trundling Britain makes slow or almost no progress on anything meaningful partly mired in a glut of public enquiries. Held to examine complex issues in depth their real purpose more often seems to be about kicking difficult decisions into the long grass. In no particular order, here are just a few examples:

Grenfell

Set up after the terrible fire in June 2017, it completed its review only in 2024. The full list of recommendations has not been implemented and some elements may never be. The future of Grenfell Tower (it is to be demolished) has only just been announced. Meanwhile, the Metropolitan Police are investigating possible criminal manslaughter and corporate manslaughter charges but, nearly eight years later, no action has actually been taken.

Enquiries go on and on and nothing seems to get done

Phone hacking

This public enquiry was set up in July 2011 to examine press standards and, to be fair, reported in November 2012. But in 2018 Leveson (the Chair) accused ministers of breaking promises to phone hacking victims. A second report to consider the extent of improper conduct and governance failings by individual newspaper groups, how these were investigated by the police, and whether police officers received corrupt payments or inducements was never initiated.

Social care

This is perhaps the most important example of government incompetence (in terms of the number of people affected) as social care descends into chaos, blocking the ability of the NHS to function properly. After several false starts by previous governments and proposals sprung on the electorate by Theresa May in the 2017 General Election which directly led to her ‘defeat’, the current Labour government, after three decades, has just announced a third independent Commission into adult social care. It will not report until 2028. Need I say more.

Post Office Horizon IT

This enquiry was set up in September 2020. Public hearings have concluded, but there is now a period of what is known as Mawellisation of the report when anyone who is criticised in the report has a reasonable opportunity to respond. No end date has been set for the enquiry’s final conclusions.

Covid

The Covid enquiry was set up in June 2022. No end date has been set although the final public hearings are set for 2026. As a comparison, the Swedish Covid public enquiry was set up in 2020 with the final report published in 2022.

Infected blood

An inquiry into the infected blood scandal when over three thousand patients died unnecessarily from illnesses such as HIV and hepatitis was originally set up in 1985. Outrageously, only in 2022 did the then government announce interim compensation payments. Many of the victims had died. The final report was published in 2024, and full compensation has yet to be paid.

The list of enquiries goes on, and victims regularly and publicly voice their frustration at the slow progress. Findings and recommendations take years to implement, if ever. No wonder voters feel politicians care little about their plight and that no-one is truly held accountable (who was ever jailed for the irresponsible actions which caused the 2007/2008 financial crash and, regardless of Covid, over a decade of austerity?). It fuels the belief that the government doesn’t work in the ordinary person’s best interests.

Government needs to speed up and act fast if it is to avoid being subsumed by populism borne out of pure frustration. The above public enquiry examples are just a small but totemic cause of voter disillusionment.

Can you imagine Trump being held back by any of the above as he pursues his four year agenda apace?

Tories lose their way…

Hopeless. For Kemi Badenoch, the clock is ticking. An indifferent performer so far, lacking charisma, she is compounding error after error. No policies yet, except for one; chasing Reform as they top an opinion poll in The Times. Seemingly in response, she has just announced ruling out permanent residence for migrants on benefits. The Tories will always be Reform-lite whatever their dog-whistle policies and yet it is a cul-de-sac they seem happy to run into.

A new Tory leader, already under pressure…

Centrist, moderate Tories should be really angry about the direction of their Party. Cameron called a Brexit vote to see off the threat from the Right. That failed. Johnson’s Brexit deal was a triumph of style over damaging substance. Let’s ignore Truss and Sunak (too depressing) and focus on Badenoch. She is, so far, simply failing to reset the Party, still obsessed by culture politics and immigration with the deeply unpleasant, newly minted anti-immigrant Robert Jenrick (her leadership opponent), snapping at her heels.

A former Cabinet Minister, a friend of mine, said the Tory Party had to move to the Right to defeat populist right-wing forces. Well, that went well, didn’t it? Reform is now topping the polls; the Tory Party is almost wholly an anti-immigration Brexit party now but that still isn’t enough. Languishing at 21% in the polls (third place), its positioning has been a disaster. One aspect of recent opinion polls has also been overlooked. The Tory Party has made zero progress in winning back LibDem voters, crucial for any electoral success.

I was watching a re-run of the Brian Walden interview with Steve Coogan (Walden) and Harriet Walter (Thatcher). Brilliant, and politics is all the poorer for audiences failing to engage with a long-form, incisive political interview. But what struck me, for all the anti-EU rhetoric in losing her Chancellor, Lawson, was Thatcher’s commitment to a single market. It remained undiminished, understanding that concept was in the best interests of Britain. She rarely got sidelined. Economic prosperity was everything. She must be turning in her grave now.

The Tories need to ignore Reform and re-build a credible party based on economic competence and aspiration. They need to argue for their own reset on Europe, particularly with the likelihood of a sympathetic centre-right government being elected in Germany. With Trump in situ, making some concessions for joining a customs union would add to the Tories’ credibility (outside their shrinking, increasingly right-wing membership base), but if not that, further involvement in European defence and cooperation is a no-brainer.

Except, the Tory Party has shown little brains for some time. It is why it is where it is with no prospect of changing anytime soon. It worries only about its Right flank. If I were Labour, Reform or LibDem, I would be in a very happy place right now, at least relatively.

Why Trump is teaching the Establishment a lesson…

Trump has started with few surprises. Shocking cabinet picks, drill baby drill initiatives, soldiers sent to police the borders and pardons for the Jan 6th rioters, some of which undertook serious acts of violence. People died.

Yawn… I braced myself for all this the moment he got elected. Perhaps only the fawning tech bro oligarchs got to me. Best to keep calm and carry on.

He mostly fails to surprise – his actions are ‘priced-in’…

And yet, how has it come to this?

Answer: because a complacent, arrogant Democrat and moderate Republican establishment let it happen. It reminds me of the complacency of the Tory Left before Thatcher swept through the Conservative Party.

Uncontrolled immigration, inflation, erosion of industries in the ‘flyover’ states, excessive political correctness culminating in defund the police initiatives (just look at how San Francisco was governed), and intrusive federal bureaucracy. Yet a deaf ear was turned to all of this.

Biden did many good things about which he failed to communicate, but in particular ignored the consequences of inflation and illegal immigration. Harris had no guiding philosophy except not to be Trump. The likes of Obama and Clinton continued to patronise voters backed up by Hollywood celebrity endorsements. Even I was in despair at the end of the campaign.

Core voters need core policies and blunt communications to make them understand politicians get it and will move the dial to make their lives better. Sometimes, if that means playing to some of their prejudices, so be it. Trump got that. The Establishment didn’t.

Trump will do a few consequential things domestically, but not many. He probably has a two year window at best, and checks and balances (yes, they still exist) will slow him down.

Internationally, where he has four years of relatively unfettered power, Trump could be a disaster over China, Russia, NATO, and free trade.

Personally, I have always thought character matters in politics. Ultimately, this is a guide to whether a politician is a good person who really cares about voters’ concerns. Trump, a convicted felon, a fraud, does not, but he might just get some things done the Establishment thought was beneath them.

In Europe as in the US, moderates should learn from Trump and start listening to core voters. Otherwise, Trumps will spring up and win elections everywhere. Not because they are liked by most voters but because out of frustration, they appear a better option for getting things done.

Why Trump is teaching the Establishment a lesson…

Trump has started with few surprises. Shocking Cabinet picks, drill baby drill initiatives, soldiers sent to police the borders and pardons for the Jan 6th rioters, some of which undertook serious acts of violence.  People died.

Yawn… I braced myself for all this the moment he got elected. Perhaps only the fawning tech bro oligarchs got to me. Best to keep calm and carry on.

He mostly fails to surprise – his actions are ‘priced-in’…

And yet, how has it come to this?

Answer: because a complacent, arrogant Democrat and moderate Republican establishment let it happen. It reminds me of the complacency of the Tory Left before Thatcher swept through the Conservative Party.

Uncontrolled immigration, inflation, erosion of industries in the ‘flyover’ states, excessive political correctness culminating in defund the police initiatives (just look at how San Francisco was governed), and intrusive federal bureaucracy. Yet a deaf ear was turned to all of this.

Biden did many good things about which he failed to communicate, but in particular ignored the consequences of inflation and illegal immigration. Harris had no guiding philosophy except not to be Trump. The likes of Obama and Clinton continued to patronise voters backed up by Hollywood celebrity endorsements. Even I was in despair at the end of the campaign.

Core voters need core policies and blunt communications to make them understand politicians get it and will move the dial to make their lives better. Sometimes, if that means playing to some of their prejudices, so be it. Trump got that. The Establishment didn’t.

Trump will do a few consequential things domestically, but not many. He probably has a two year window at best, and checks and balances (yes, they still exist) will slow him down.

Internationally, where he has four years of relatively unfettered power, Trump could be a disaster over China, Russia, NATO, and free trade.

Personally, I have always thought character matters in politics. Ultimately, this is a guide to whether a politician is a good person who really cares about voters’ concerns. Trump, a convicted felon, a fraud, does not, but he might just get some things done the Establishment thought was beneath them.

In Europe as in the US, moderates should learn from Trump and start listening to core voters. Otherwise, Trumps will spring up and win elections everywhere. Not because they are liked by most voters but because out of frustration, they appear a better option for getting things done.

2025 may surprise on the upside…

My uncharacteristic mild optimism may only be due to too many right-wing commentators reading the last rites for liberal democracy. But there you go. They, rather than me, might be disappointed…

It is time for 2025 predictions but also to review those for 2024. Umm…

  • The Tories will go down to a heavy defeat, possibly even annihilation – an easy tick
  • The Tories will move further to the Right after the election – tick
  • Trump will not win the presidency… to be fair this prediction was changed in June after Biden’s disastrous debating performance but still… – a rather large cross
  • The populist Right will make gains in Italy, Germany and France – tick
  • Putin will win in Russia (tongue in cheek!) and Modi in India. Modi lost his populist majority but governs in a coalition – tick
  • The war in Ukraine will grind on but Western resolve will hold up – tick
  • Netanyahu will not survive the year as Israel’s Prime Minister – cross

2025 will be a bumpy year, but perhaps not as bad as expected...

Five out of seven predictions were correct, but I would have sacrificed them all just to be right about Trump. Hey, ho. Perhaps I underestimate the attraction of populists.

So why some optimism for 2025? Well, mainly because populist support has been ‘priced in’, and too many people are dancing too heavily on the grave of moderates. Here we go:

  1. Trump will not be the all-conquering extremist many predict and may surprise on the upside. Janan Ganesh from the Financial Times at my Company’s investment seminar last November predicted Trump would be uncontrollable simply because he doesn’t face re-election. I am not so sure. Despite a largely competent start in picking his rather extreme Cabinet, he probably only has two years to make a difference before Congressional elections give back the House to the Democrats (an early 2026 prediction). As argued before, many of his policies are contradictory, his Cabinet is likely to be ineffectually chaotic, he has softened on Ukraine (though right to challenge Europe on defence expenditure), he might just want to be a little more popular in his final years or may simply lose interest in governing radically or governing at all.
  2. Labour will have a torrid time (its communications skills are still hopeless), but it has four years, and glimmers of progress towards its targets will appear by the end of 2025. The UK will appear a beacon of stability internationally, and this will ultimately benefit the government.
  3. Starmer will lead Labour throughout 2025 and into the next General Election despite mutterings.
  4. Reform UK will have a strong year but are close to peaking. Don’t underestimate the hostility of a large proportion of the electorate towards Farage and the likes of his backers such as Trump/Musk. Although Farage and Musk now appear to have fallen out. What a shame.
  5. The Tories will have a terrible year and will flatline in the polls. Badenoch has not found her feet yet and seems to have forgotten the Tories’ way back to power is to regain their reputation for economic competence. Too early, I know, but she is unlikely to lead her Party into the next General Election. Such turmoil in the main opposition party will benefit Reform but also Labour.
  6. It is too early to predict events in France although things do not look promising but there will be better news in Germany. The unstable largely left-wing coalition will be heavily defeated in February, ushering in a centre-right CDU/CSU coalition government despite the rise of the extreme AfD.
  7. A miserable year for China. Slowing growth, a possible trade war with the US and Xi’s dominance starting to grate across the country means there will be no move on Taiwan despite bellicose noises. China simply cannot afford the economic consequences, particularly when they are also losing ground to their unfriendly neighbour, India.
  8. Not least Russia/Ukraine. See first prediction above. Trump will eventually force a tougher peace solution on Putin over Ukraine than Putin wants. Putin is winning the war but at great human and economic cost. A Trump led ‘solution’ will probably involve greater support for Ukraine from Europe, guarantees on borders, but not fully on Ukraine’s terms and no NATO membership. It is 50/50, whether the war ends this year. Even this blog knows when not to put your neck out…
  9. Lastly, the Middle East. The war in Gaza will end this year but on Israel’s terms.

That’s it folks. A roller coaster of a year but optimism is based on the fact that progress towards the death of liberal democracy will stall…

Happy New Year!

Reasons to be optimistic…

It has been a strange year. Labour’s less than convincing victory in share of vote terms is causing the government all sorts of problems as it unsteadily takes unpopular decisions upfront. Politically, populism remains on the rise with Reform rising in the polls in the UK, Trump winning in the US and the Far-Right marching ever closer to power in France.

Speaking to friends, most of whom I would call moderates, they voice frustration at excessive political correctness, ‘wokeism’ if you like, bureaucracy, mounting regulation, government incompetence generally and government economic illiteracy in particular. It feels like Brexit all over again when surprising people came out of the woodwork to vote Leave. It seems further populist gains will be made in the year ahead.

However, what are the grounds to believe next year will be better than this one?

Trump will not be the all-conquering president he and a large slice of the rest of America believe. Trump and Musk (what is it about this strange billionaire getting off on extreme libertarian politics) have already lost a key vote in Congress removing the debt ceiling, with dozens of Republicans rebelling. Good. It’s called fiscal discipline.

Four years will quickly pass, and Trump may be rendered impotent in the last two… Meanwhile, he is softening his stance on Ukraine, and it is no bad thing that he is forcing Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence.

Second, the Labour government has to deliver and will probably just do enough to be reelected. We are a moderate country that will cap Reform. It is the lost Tories you should worry about…

Third, whilst France might head into the abyss, Germany is on course to elect a sensible centre-right government in February, and that is probably more important.

Fourth, and most crucially, there are growing calls for a reshuffle of Christmas trees in London. The Norwegian twig in Trafalgar Square covered in weak white lights is now deemed unacceptable. About time.

A painful contrast: Trafalgar Square v Rockefeller Centre

We don’t need a bullying Trump administration to tell us it is time for a Rockefeller Christmas tree or even a transfer of a few pretty Covent Garden trees to our principal Square.

Momentum is growing, and this will happen. That alone will cheer us up at the end of 2025, whatever happens in the meantime…

Merry Christmas!