First, the pantomime from Boris. A 4200 word ‘please notice me’ advertisement in The Telegraph shamefully putting personal ambition before the interests of the Government and the Country. Then on Friday came a serious, concrete proposal by the Prime Minister in her speech in Florence ensuring no impact on the EU’s current budget from our departure. This would mean no country having to fill our contribution space in the interim period.

As the phrase goes, ‘it is not the beginning of the end but the end of the beginning’ and finally gets us to the starting line of exiting the EU in a grown up way. A two year transition period (at least) post departure is sensible as the economy slows and uncertainties for businesses mount. It marks the end of the nonsense that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

Those who advocate a clean break from the EU with little or no payment simply don’t get it. No one can forecast the full, long term impact of leaving Europe or indeed the benefits of doing so but the near future is damaged. We are now one of the slowest growing economies in Europe with further pressures to follow. We have a fantastic employment record (all whilst being a member of the EU) but this could reverse. We need an agreement first on money so that we can reach agreements on cross border regulation, in particular to protect our Financial Services industry, on enshrining the rights of European citizens under the European Court of Justice in UK law (a neat compromise) to keep talented European individuals in the UK and on a decent trade deal to protect our overall economy. That is before securing terms for an open border with Northern Ireland and new structures for mutual cooperation on research and security issues.

Some Brexit Cabinet Ministers have been heard to muse in private that we are better off outside the EU and poorer than being inside the EU and accepting its constraints. Try telling that to thousands of employees in the Financial Services sector alone who will lose their administration jobs as back offices are re-located to continental Europe. Leaving the EU is a serious game with the futures of many people reliant on getting the exit terms right. Theresa May’s speech was a step (finally) in the right direction. It is a time for compromise not ideology, a phased departure not a cliff-edge.

Which takes us to the imminent Conservative Party Conference. As we all suspected, this Sunday’s papers underscore what poisonous relationships exist within the current Cabinet. It is too much to expect many members not to be on manoeuvres during their happy stay in Manchester. One hopes they will be suitably punished in any future leadership contest.

 

As we approach the Conservative Party Conference, when anybody attending under 50 can be considered young, it is worth contemplating the complete alienation of this age group of voters from the Conservatives. A recent YouGov poll shows that only voters aged over 50 support the Conservatives over Labour, with younger age groups preferring Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party by a huge margin; 18-24 year olds, 65% versus 19% and 25-49 year olds, 55% versus 27%.

The reasons are almost too numerous to list; Brexit, tuition fees, 10 years of austerity seemingly bearing little fruit, a housing crisis, economic policies overall favouring the old over the young, to name but a few. Other polling suggests real pessimism about standards of living continuing to improve for the next generation, something once taken for granted.

Then there is the image of the Conservative Party…Whilst it is actually populated with some impressive young people (but clearly not enough), and of course good people of all ages, it is perceived to be influenced by a nostalgic longing for the 1950s combined with flashes of cavalier arrogance which grate on many sections of the electorate. To add insult to injury you now have Jacob Rees-Mogg touted as a future leader either based on delusion or a deliberate plan by opponents to sabotage the Conservative Party for a generation. It is not hard to see why the ‘affable, idealistic’ Corbyn (even with his many hard-line activists) is charging ahead.

So what is to be done? First, there should be no pale imitation of Labour’s policies in appealing to younger voters. A government paralysed by Brexit can still be radical. On tuition fees, there should be an immediate cut in the penal rate of interest of up to 6.1%, preferably close to the base rate, combined with a full scale review of the funding of higher education. This is particularly needed after the unedifying rush to charge the maximum £9k tuition fees regardless of the need or quality of teaching. The possibility of two year courses should also be examined as well as charging overseas students more and domestic students less. On Brexit, the language and priorities need to change and new, younger ministers should lead some of the reporting on the progress of negotiations. On housing, pro-actively working with banks to cut the deposit required for purchase, which many younger people say is currently prohibitive to getting on the housing ladder, would bring real benefits. Last but not least, on the economy, reducing the higher rate tax relief on pension contributions and means testing some benefits to older voters (an original manifesto promise…) would help make the case for austerity but with a little more re-distribution. Now this is the stuff of dreams but worth a thought anyway…

The challenges for younger voters should be seen as our challenges too. Only in this way will the Conservative Party broaden its base of support and prevent the awful prospect of Corbyn as Prime Minister.

 

So Theresa May wants to fight the next election as leader. She would say that wouldn’t she; but her desire to get the job done and atone for past mistakes should not be underestimated. She is hardly challenged at Cabinet level (sorry Boris) and it would allow time for a new leader to emerge from the next generation. But the real threat to her position comes not from grumbling colleagues but Labour’s new stance on Europe.

The Government to date has been blessed with its Opposition, despite the disastrous General Election result. A slow footed, divided Labour Party has allowed the Conservative Party to avoid most of the pitfalls of its own internal divisions. A poor Labour front bench, led by a leader who can’t make up his mind on the key issue of the day, leaving Europe, has also allowed a hard Brexit approach to remain relatively unchallenged. The real opposition often seems to be led by Michel Barnier, who again out-manoeuvred David Davis this week from a public relations perspective.

Not for much longer. The change of stance of the Labour Party, driven by one of its few able shadow ministers, Keir Starmer, to supporting a much softer Brexit has enormous consequences. In flatly opposing the Conservatives’ desire to leave the single market/customs union during a transition period, beyond it and possibly never if freedom of movement rules are loosened, Labour have now created more space for potentially major parliamentary defeats. Many Labour seats voted to leave the EU so there may be some negative consequences for them but on the whole this has been a long overdue master stroke.

The Conservatives also seem to be softening their own position. A ‘status quo’ transition, paying exit bills, a limited role for the European Court of Justice are just a few compromises appearing. As long as the hard Brexiteers get their exit and the EU has a transition period where we abide by their rules (but have no say!) perhaps all will be harmony. But if not, there will be real trouble. If the Government loses its majority through a combination of Labour’s new stance and pro-European Conservatives simply having had enough then it will be game over. Theresa May would have to go and with a new leader pressurised to call an election who knows what the consequences will be. There will be many close battles ahead and 2019 looks a long way off let alone 2022.

Craig Oliver’s book (Director of Communications under Cameron) on the 2016 European referendum campaign compared well with the usual summer read of favourite thrillers. Fast paced and crisis riven, it summed up the day to day powerlessness of Cameron as Prime Minister as we hurtled towards exiting the EU. A constant papering over the cracks of a fractured Conservative Party, an intransigent Europe and manoeuvring around duplicitous, often contemptuous colleagues in the face of growing populism and a hostile 24-hour media seemed to reduce Cameron’s role to that of a passenger, albeit one who was responsible for starting the journey in the first place.

Now turn to Theresa May. Hostage to her cabinet and an agenda entirely driven by exiting Europe, her future as Prime Minister, for however long that is, is almost entirely outside her control.

This weakness is not about Europe or indeed the Conservative Party however. With a highly intrusive, (often rightly so but not always…) sceptical 24-hour media circus, global forces which constrain the power of even the most influential domestic politicians and an increasingly belligerent electorate who have lost respect for the political class, the powerlessness of politicians is everywhere. Take Donald Trump for example. Only six months into his job when he should at least be wielding some influence over domestic policy, he shouts angrily from the side-lines and has achieved almost nothing. Travel bans are neutered, Obama-care remains in place and even stepping away from the Paris climate agreement has become meaningless, as individual states and cities pledge to continue its implementation.

Except…In democracies the right moral tone about how societies should be run is everything. For all their faults, overseeing this is the legitimate role of politicians. It is why powerful businessmen should never be a substitute for the political class, as it is the very vulnerability of politicians that binds them to the electorate. Choosing the right words to respond to acts of terrorism, responding to tragedies and calming people in the face of crises is the real soft power in a democratic system. It keeps people together, leads them away from anger and prejudice and ultimately makes for a more humane society.

So with this in mind, in the light of recent events, shame on Donald Trump. His ugly response to the clashes in Charlottesville, his constantly aggressive, demeaning tone with opponents brings out the worst in some elements of American society. Even yesterday’s announcement of more US forces for Afghanistan was about ‘killing terrorists’ not nation building. In this sense, he has betrayed the power invested in the Presidency. Thankfully there are other political voices both at home and abroad to contradict him. But is this enough when such leading politicians are subtly far more influential than we realise?

 

 

The title comes from a cabinet minister admonishing his own cabinet colleagues. It is a neat summary. The Conservatives in government are infuriatingly becoming an embarrassment.

Let’s just recount the last two years. Cameron won a surprising election victory and then with a cavalier approach which was such a hallmark of his premiership, embarked on a Brexit referendum, posing a simple question about a highly complex issue.

Several of today’s cabinet subsequently drove the debate to the lowest common denominator. All this to bind the wounds of the Conservative Party over Europe. It was, of course, a disastrous gamble, leaving the Conservative Party more divided than ever, whilst casting a dark shadow over the political and economic future of the UK. If that wasn’t enough, the same Conservative Party held (perhaps with the benefit of hindsight) an entirely unnecessary election which weakened the government at the very moment it needed strength, and in doing so succeeded in making Corbyn’s Labour Party electable. Quite some feat.

Then comes the aftermath. As if the Conservative Party had not toyed sufficiently with the future of the country, we now have the unseemly positioning of cabinet ministers undermining the Prime Minister, insulting and contradicting each other in public and leaking cabinet meeting discussions at will. It is a disgrace. It is as if politics is simply a game, taking no account of the consequences of pursuing individual ambition at any price. What must floating voters at the very least be thinking…

None of those in cabinet who currently see themselves as a successor to Theresa May deserve the job. It would be easy to name names but we all know who they are. So go away for the summer, rest, recuperate, repent and then give the Prime Minister space and time to negotiate what must be a Brexit with a lengthy transition period. As for her successor, he or she must surely come from the next generation of MPs who can create a centre right narrative away from the curse of Europe. In doing so, they will put distance between themselves and the perceived reckless stewardship of many currently in government.

Happy summer holidays…

 

 

If the Conservative Party stands for anything it is sound finance so it is puzzling when Cabinet Ministers, seemingly hustled by Corbyn’s agenda, recently wanted to dilute a commitment to securing the country’s financial future. The debate over relaxing public sector pay is a legitimate one but from the Government’s perspective it is an issue for the Prime Minister/Chancellor and not set in the context of panic or a possible cynical display of’ leadership ambition.

We should make an effort to ban the word austerity or at least put it in the context of what it really means. The UK is still borrowing over £50 billion a year to make ends meet. Debt interest is over £40 billion per annum which is 3% of GDP that can’t be invested in public services. To relax a grip on public finances would damage the very people that more expenditure is meant to help. Cameron’s rare intervention to make this point is welcome. Nobody likes austerity. It is unfortunately essential.

It is legitimate to assess the impact of cuts versus higher taxes but in reality we currently need both. What we also need is cross party co-operation. The country faces unprecedented peacetime challenges. In addition to Brexit and the consequent Repeal bill, the rapidly accelerating pressures on social care provision and a struggling NHS require more consensual solutions. Then there is making capitalism work more fairly for all stakeholders starting with workers’ rights. We have had the Dilnot Report, party manifesto proposals and now the Taylor Review to name but a few initiatives covering these areas. None have attracted any consensus even in a post election world.

It is easy to see Theresa’s May’s initiative this week to reach out to other parties for solutions as a sign of weakness, particularly given her pre-election aggressive stance. But politicians need to grow up and understand that some issues are bigger than their own ambitions and ideologies. Only if they recognise this will the reputation of the political class show even the slightest hint of recovery.

 

 

Leaving the woes of the UK behind this week, a focus on the US provides the startling fact that after winning four congressional ‘by-elections’ and some indications of strong national opinion polling, Trump remains tenaciously popular regardless of his chaotic presidency and sometimes appalling tweets. Actually, this is of little surprise since the circumstances that led to his election were never going to dissipate quickly. The political force of nature that is Trump requires an opposing force, one that provides a clear alternative from the centre ground.

The Democrats are in a mess. They still can’t come to terms with their presidential loss. Bernie Sanders remains popular and there seems no substitute. Reading mailings from Democrats Abroad, there is a continuing sense of injustice at events but no new leaders or policies. An FT commentator rightly said the Democrats have rich backers wanting to keep the status quo but issues such as disparity of wealth and lack of opportunity in an era of stagnant living standards require real economic change, not simply protecting the vested interests of the public sector and trade unions on the one hand and those of wealthy backers on the other. Suffocating political correctness is no substitute either, partly responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place.

What is required are brave politicians staking a claim to the centre/centre right ground whilst shaking off vested interests from both sides if it can be done.  It would of course have to involve an appeal to the rust belt states and those sections of society losing out from globalisation more comprehensively than in the past. It needs a new generation of presidential candidates without baggage speaking bluntly to voters and unlike Obama rolling up their sleeves to ‘mix it’ with Congress.

That takes us back to Europe. In a very different political system Macron provides some lessons. He has built a new platform in the centre, commanding the French political stage in an era of political disillusionment through a tough and tender message; legitimate, long overdue economic reform combined with protecting the poorest, social liberalism, support for those established institutions which are working, an emerging canny foreign policy and rooting out political corruption (four ministerial resignations so far!). Combined with Merkel, there is a possibility of a rejuvenated continental Europe and EU, one which will be harder for the UK to negotiate with until there is a recalibration of British politics.

In the meantime, in the UK and US, the common theme of populism both left and right drives the agenda; an unintentionally ironic special relationship founded on support for Trump, Corbyn, Sanders and Brexit.

 

 

This has been an awful few weeks with terror attacks and the tragic, seemingly preventable Grenfell Tower fire. Such horrors, of course, demand a political response and it is a challenge for politicians to strike the right balance when the scale and frequency of events is almost overwhelming.

Despite media criticism, mostly they have got it right but there is much to do and the past few weeks in several ways are speeding up a desire for a new narrative in politics. Gone is the reluctant acceptance of austerity, as the belief becomes more widespread that sacrifices over the past decade have been unfairly shared.

Consequently, there is growing support for the Labour Party’s priorities. Corbyn rides high after the election result, whilst unsurprisingly Theresa May is a diminished figure with many predicting her demise, some say imminently. The Queen’s Speech simply confirms her vulnerability. So this week’s comment is an attempt to put some perspective into aspects of political discourse.

First, Labour’s economic priorities. Scandalously under analysed during the election, they need to be challenged as they will ultimately impoverish the very people they seek to support. The Conservative Party must win back the economic argument for backing business, keeping taxes as low as possible and helping people with their aspirations. None of this involves a lack of focus on protecting the vulnerable. The Conservatives simply need a fresh approach, making the case for the above, combined with thoughtful arguments for long-term investment in public services in return for legitimate reform.

And, for all the disastrous missteps Theresa May has made, there is no credible successor yet visible and until there is, she should stay in place. Those commentators who demand her head now are mistaken. Her faults have been endlessly explored but she often starts from good intentions and she should be allowed time to develop a new narrative on Europe, adopting a more consensual, even at times cross-party approach to the terms of Brexit. She should also be allowed to pursue her genuine desire to make some aspects of capitalism work better for all stakeholders which at least, if poorly presented in the past, touches on the more legitimate aspects of Corbyn’s agenda.

We certainly do not need another election when the Conservative Party as a whole could be rightly blamed for the current mess we are in. Those hoping to lead the Conservative Party should use their time wisely to work on a new narrative; re-balancing the impact of austerity, investing in the fabric of the country and embracing a new partnership with Europe. It says a good deal when Ken Clarke, aged 76 and Father of the House, still often remains the most credible voice of moderate, pro-European, but often radical Conservatism, a model for future leadership candidates to contemplate…

Another week in politics, another political earthquake. Last night’s result was a disaster for the Conservatives and almost entirely self-inflicted. A terrible campaign with no arguments made for why we deserve to be re-elected. It simply confirms the damage of Brexit. Conservatives created the referendum in the first place causing chaos and then responded tactically with demands for a hard departure from the EU. No wonder the ‘strong and stable’ mantra wasn’t enough and we are ironically left with a weak government and even more economic uncertainty. Despite the best of intentions in sorting out the mess her Party bequeathed her, for Theresa May it might be a fatal blow as the backlash of running a thin, personalised campaign overwhelms her.

As for Labour, a begrudging well done Corbyn for it is he alone who carried the campaign supported by a highly nimble campaigning team (I am not talking about his front bench…). But a 40% share of the vote for pure socialism is alarming and confirmation that there is little understanding of the country’s indebtedness. Austerity may well be dead for now until the next economic crisis. As for young voters, they can’t complain their votes are wasted. Tuition fees helped bring down the Lib Dems, ended Nick Clegg’s parliamentary career and now with a 70% plus turnout almost brought Labour victory. Quite an impact.

So what lies ahead. Well there are two silver linings. The SNP’s case for a second referendum was soundly defeated and must now be on the back burner. R.I.P. Alex Salmond. Second, a softer Brexit is now also far more likely, let alone the possibility of another vote on the terms of departure, which is the first good news on Europe in a long time.

As for the Conservative Party…. it is simply too disliked. The rebranding started half heartedly (and cynically) by Cameron but never finished must begin again but differently. It is time for moderate, centre-left Conservatives to re-assert themselves and bring out the softer side of a Party made up of many good people. There are interesting times ahead…..