Those who know Theresa May understand the Tory Party runs through her like words in a stick of rock. Her whole life has been devoted to Tory activism. Her diligence over constituency duties and campaigning is legendary. She is a Tory activist through and through.

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So to be the PM who destroys the Tory Party by splitting it down the middle in search of a Brexit solution in the so-called national interest would be anathema to her. It just won’t happen. She has a strong sense of public service and duty but to her the national interest is indivisible from the preservation of the Party she leads.

Corbyn is a socialist through and through. Socialism runs though him like words in a stick of rock. He hates the Tories with a passion and has campaigned against them (and often his own front-bench) for decades in search of a socialist nirvana. He now has the Labour Party where he wants it, for the quasi revolution he seeks. Helping the Tories on Brexit in the so-called national interest? It just won’t happen.

From Theresa May’s perspective, after the historic defeat of her Withdrawal Agreement, this is why plan B looks like plan A. It is also why Corbyn won’t participate in cross-party talks.

The Commons may take Brexit out of these party leaders’ hands but there is a problem here too. There is probably no cross-party Commons majority for any other solution to leaving the EU such as the ‘Norway’ option or a fully fledged embrace of the customs union. A majority probably exists to block a no-deal but that is it.

A General Election may well result in stalemate. Even if the Tories were lucky enough to win it, they would still be split. Labour’s own backbenchers are adrift of Corbyn’s team and it is unlikely a Labour majority would be large enough to sort this.

A People’s Vote may just deliver the same result or a marginal vote the other way leaving an even more divided nation. There is genuine concern about civil unrest.

The odds are still that Theresa May will deliver a Withdrawal Agreement at the very last minute shorn of the Backstop clause in its current form. Certainly, Brexit supporting Tories are beginning to realise this is their best hope.

Only an extension of Article 50 and a wholesale shake out of the leaders of both parties will lead to more radical solutions. My guess is that this won’t happen unless the country plunges fully into a constitutional crisis.

For all the criticism, there is still only one game in town currently and that is the Withdrawal Agreement. In delivering this, national interest and Party interest are one and the same…at least from Theresa May’s perspective…

Not much was surprising yesterday. The vote against May’s Brexit deal was a little larger than expected but only because none of the well-known number of Tories opposed to it and her leadership chose to abstain.

Corbyn’s opportunistic call for a no confidence vote was also no surprise.

The EU has also been clear that they won’t amend the Withdrawal Agreement in the face of such a defeat for the Government.

In response to all these familiar positions there was little change in the stance of the Labour or Conservative front benches. No wonder the public despair of politicians. No cross-party statesmanship from either May or Corbyn was on display to broker a compromise at a time of national crisis. We are drifting to disaster.

So the way forward?:

• Parliament should take control and May (still incredibly the only viable PM) should take instructions to look at amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement that could command a majority, such as staying within a customs union.
• The Government should probably ask for a delay in leaving the EU or even revoke Article 50 until a cross party solution of how to leave the EU can be found. Perilous for May but she now has little option.
• A new solution should then be put to Parliament and approved. If this can’t be done, a second ‘People’s Vote’ will be needed on the solution along with a decision to stay or leave the EU with no deal.
• If the Government won’t do this or the Opposition can’t compromise, time for a new leader (s). This will almost certainly bring the date of a General Election forward.

What a mess. The damage caused by Brexit is worse than even hardened Remainers predicted. The issue has split the country for a generation and most likely will speed our decline. Today, there are no silver linings to increasingly stormy clouds.

Brexit is such a mess. Anything could happen in the next few days/weeks so at this moment in time speculation about the future is pretty fruitless. Of course that won’t deter me or anybody else from trying… but it does today ahead of the Big Vote tomorrow.

Instead, it is worth focusing on a corner of government in the Ministry of Justice where, over the weekend, the highly able prisons minister, Rory Stewart, has just proposed a radical reform of sentencing. He is considering banning prison sentences of less than 6 months, an initiative long advocated by the Prison Reform Trust.

If the judicial system is a measure of how civilised a society we are then we don’t score well. It is failing across the board.

We have the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe. In the last 30 years, the prison population has risen 70% to over 80,000 and yet there is no link between the size of the prison population and levels of crime according to the National Audit Office.

According to the Prison Reform Trust, prisons are in a mess. Rates of self-harm are at the highest level ever recorded and assaults on staff have tripled in the last 5 years. 46% of prisons are rated ‘of concern’ or ‘of serious concern’ by HM Prisons and Probation Service, also the highest on record. 81 out of 120 prisons in England and Wales are overcrowded yet the number of frontline operational prison staff was cut by 26% from 2010 to 2017. The government is only just starting to reverse this disastrous decline.

For those on either side of the sentencing debate, cutting short term sentences makes sense. Two thirds of prisoners given custodial sentences of less than 12 months reoffend and community sentences are proven to reduce reoffending more effectively, particularly for those who have a large number of previous offences or people with mental health problems. Yet their use has halved in only a decade. Crazy.

If this reform was implemented, it would reduce the current prison population by 3,500. More than half of the 86,000 offenders sentenced to immediate custody in England and Wales in 2017 were handed sentences of less than 6 months. The cumulative impact of such reform would be enormous.

If this initiative is implemented, it could transform our approach to managing the justice system with real benefits to society, saving money at the same time. Well done Rory Stewart for starting the debate. There is some good being done, albeit hidden, in a generally dire government transfixed by Brexit.

This time last year, eight predictions were made; five were correct, two were wrong and there was one score draw. Not bad versus the ‘paid commentariat’ so I venture out boldly to guide readers through 2019…umm…

Recapping predictions for 2018 provides a good insight into what might happen this year:

There was no General Election and Theresa May held on; the Liberal Democrats went nowhere; Angela Merkel announced her departure; Trump did better than expected in the midterms and, Mueller notwithstanding, looks set for an eight year term; the global economy remained strong. Only the Tories deteriorating electorally and Macron shining were wrong. Iran was the score draw.

So how does that leave us for 2019? Almost anything could happen, but here we go…

• Brexit. The self-harm will continue. The PM will get some version of her deal through the Commons (not first time round) as there is no consensus on any other solution. She will fight against an extension of the 29th March Brexit date as it imperils her premiership; but be prepared for a nail-biting finish. There will be no second referendum.
• Theresa May.  She will stay on as PM due to her resilience and the fact there is no immediate alternative. Last year’s leadership vote bought her 12 months. She will refresh her Cabinet and there will be no General Election. The Tories realise they need a stronger leader to reboot our relationship with the EU during the transition period so prepare for an earlier change than she wants in 2020.
• The Opposition. Labour will go nowhere under Corbyn who will stay on as leader. He and his front bench lack any credibility and have mostly played Brexit very badly. The public see this which is why incredibly the Tories continue to stay up in the polls, regardless of their behaviour.
• A new party? The Liberal Democrats are dead in the water. It is now or never for a new centrist party which will be launched in 2019. Despite a glittering start, it will not succeed in such a bi-polar political environment. We will end up with the politicians we deserve!
• Europe. In Germany, Merkel will go earlier than expected, possibly this year but certainly not in 2021 as she hopes. In a similar vein to May, there will be a time sooner rather than later when her party will have had more than enough. In France, Macron will never be popular but will recover his poise and stick broadly to his course. Despite his clumsy arrogance, my does Europe need him.
• North America. The Mueller enquiry will damage Trump but not fatally. He will not be impeached and stays on course for eight years…unless the Democrats pull their act together and nominate a credible opponent (Beto O’Rourke?)
• Economics. China will wobble economically but will manage to stay on course. Its hegemony will continue to grow buoyed by a fairly stable global economy (not necessarily in stock market terms) and Trump continuing to withdraw the US from the world stage.

There you go. Not exciting, not much fun, but plenty for commentators to get their teeth into. For those dismayed by UK politics in particular, or who are simply not interested, it may be time to take up a new hobby or, even better, move abroad…say…continental Europe?

Happy New Year!

A poacher in Missouri found guilty of killing hundreds of deer has been sentenced to watching the Disney film Bambi repeatedly whilst in prison. This got me thinking…So what should the feckless politicians in the UK watch as we hurtle towards Brexit? Here are a few ideas:

Theresa May: The Great Escape

A mass escape from a high security prison run by the Germans is just the film TM needs to watch as her options of leaving the EU shrink to zero. Sadly, it doesn’t have a happy ending for many…

Jeremy Corbyn: X-Men: Days of Future Past

The X-Men send beasts into the past in a desperate attempt to change history and bring back socialism to prevent an event that dooms humans. OK, political licence… that bit about socialism is my addition…

Vince Cable: Gravity

A science fiction thriller about a crew stranded in space after an alliance with the Tories leads to a mid-orbit destruction of their vessel. Desperate to return to Earth and influence the EU debate, the Liberal Democrats search in vain for a route back to relevance…

Jacob Rees-Mogg: V for Vendetta

Depicting a dystopian and post-apocalyptic near-future history of the UK, the film features an anarchist revolutionary who begins an elaborate and theatrical revolutionist campaign to destroy his captors (the EU Commission), bring down the fascist state (the EU) and convince the people to abandon democracy in favour of the anarchy of free markets…

Boris Johnson: Love Actually

A recently elected Prime Minister embarks on an affair with a new junior member of the household staff. Seeking her out to talk to her, he tracks her down to a multi-school Christmas play (a long story…). As the two try to keep from being seen and watch the show from backstage, they finally kiss. All their hiding was for nothing because as the curtain rises, they are seen kissing by everyone. The Prime Minister eventually does the decent thing…and re-joins the EU…

Nigel Farage: Alien: Covenant

A joint American/British production, it features a journey from the EU to a remote planet where members of a space ship, Covenant, discover what they think to be an uncharted free-market paradise only to find a mysterious world which soon turns dark and dangerous. Hostile alien life-forms called lawyers force the crew into a deadly fight for survival…

So there you are. Some entertaining films for politicians to relax in front of as they contemplate an EU departure in 2019. They had better enjoy their break. Things are only going to get more turbulent next year.

Happy Christmas!

 

TM won solidly but no more than that. She will soldier on, probably deliver a Brexit deal of sorts and then depart, barring unforeseen circumstances…Will the media stop saying she is wounded and let her get on with the job? Almost certainly not. And yet she is no more wounded than the Tory Party as a whole.

What yesterday’s vote showed is that the Tory Party is split from top to bottom; from those who support a centre-right, moderate approach to the EU and indeed broader issues versus those Brexit extremists who often drift into social conservatism.

Here are a few Blue on Blue quotes from yesterday:

The vote will “…flush out the extremists”, Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer.

“It’s a terrible result for the Prime Minister…she ought to go and see the Queen urgently and resign…”, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Leader of the European Research Group.

“It wasn’t enough so one wing of the party can drive a stake through the European Research Group, and it’s not enough for the other wing to drive a stake through her heart”. Anonymous minister.

A terrible day for the Tory Party; a terrible day for the country as a whole. The Government’s internal strife ensures a satisfactory conclusion to the Brexit drama is almost as far away as ever. The UK’s standing globally is diminishing by the day and economically it will be poorer regardless of almost any EU solution.

The country deserves better; politics deserves better. It is increasingly difficult to see how the two halves of the Tory Party can ever be reconciled. And with the Labour frontbench manifestly unfit to govern, the odds of a new centrist party being created ahead of the next General Election just got a good deal stronger. A silver lining to some very dark clouds.

 

The Prime Minister’s sense of public duty has been awesome to watch; her treatment by her colleagues has been terrible to watch. In challenging her leadership now, the Tory Party has lost its collective marbles. It is surely abrogating its right to govern in the face of its disgraceful behaviour over Brexit.

The leadership challenge to the PM is vainglorious and destructive to the country’s future. The public believes the Tories are increasing unfit to govern, and quite right too.  Only the prospect of a Corbyn government has saved them in the past. No longer. A Corbyn government may just be what the Tories (but not the country!) deserves.

I hope I am wrong but, sadly, it might be tough for TM to survive. She has made too many mistakes. Her first one was her hubris in 2016. TM’s ‘red-lines’, ensuring no ECJ jurisdiction, no freedom of movement (the main driver for the Brexit victory whatever some sympathetic Brexit commentators might say), no customs union and triggering Article 50 prevented room for manoeuvre. Leaving the EU became increasingly intractable and breaking those red lines has allowed her enemies to pounce. From where she started there could be no Norway option and no easy Northern Ireland border solution. She unwittingly created the stage for a humiliating row back, setting us up for where we are today.

Her next mistake was a firm denial of a General Election, only to hold one. Remind you of this week? Politicians can’t keep saying no and then suddenly say yes…

These last few days were always going to be tricky in delaying the meaningful vote. Floating a delay in advance risked greater defeat, but who on earth advised TM to be so adamant about no delay in the vote even up to Monday morning? Cabinet ministers fanned out to say the vote would happen, only to be left dangling a few hours later, when this decision was reversed.

Her authority is severely damaged, hence today’s leadership vote, but despite her mistakes, shame on those Tory colleagues who have made her job impossible; shame on the appalling, stupid, self-serving Labour front bench and shame about the overall state of British politics. It is no solution to the Brexit mess to change the PM now.

What next? TM is fighting to hold on to her premiership and deserves to win if only to get Brexit through in March. No colleague has earned the right to replace her. But Tory MPs are a treacherous electorate and I fear she may not make it. So a few brave predictions:

• TM wins the leadership vote by a narrow margin. 55/45
• TM goes anyway this week. 45/55
• If TM wins and stays, she will broker a deal which will be passed by Parliament in January. 70/30
• If she goes, she will be replaced by an interim Tory leader who requests to leave the EU at a later date. 100/0
• A newly elected leader will not come from the Brexit extremes so step forward the likes of Sajid Javid or someone similar. 70/30
• Implosion of the Government and a General Election 40/60. This was always the least likely option but the Tories are losing control, the public are appalled and the odds are rising.
• A Norway EU departure option in the event of a new leader. 40/60. Climbing up the charts…
• A People’s Vote. 40/60. Climbing up the charts…
• A no-deal. 20/80. Falling in the charts…

We are in this Brexit chaos entirely due to the Tories’ European psychodrama. I hope TM holds on, but in today’s very act of trying to remove her, the Tories are increasingly forfeiting their right to govern.

Roll on a new centrist political party to improve the future choice available to us.

 

Such is my professional life, I attended a Pensions conference in Dublin this week as the guest of the editor of a leading pensions investment magazine. Needless to say, Brexit loomed large in nearly all discussions.

Here are a few thoughts from key guest speakers, delegates (and a few taxi drivers!) on the UK and Brexit. I am not saying they are wholly representative but they were the sentiments that I heard most frequently expressed in conversations:

• The mess we have got ourselves into is embarrassing and damaging to the UK’s reputation. It is (and will continue to do so) speeding up our declining influence in the world.
• Are we mad, stupid or both?
• That in voting for Brexit, we have entirely over-reacted. We should have just ignored many of Europe’s strictures rather than leave. Many other countries do this.
• That we will be missed in the EU as a voice of common sense, particularly by the Irish.
• That there is no way there can be a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Its symbolism would be disastrous. Some in the UK, like the ludicrous Boris Johnson, underestimate this. The Troubles are still too fresh in people’s minds.
• Many people in the UK and Ireland are ambivalent about the political direction of Northern Ireland anyway.
• Leaving European security structures such as those that allow for a European Arrest Warrant would significantly damage our safety.
• The value of an Irish passport is soaring…

As the week unfolded and the chaos got worse in parliament, there was growing sympathy for our predicament. And you know how dangerous that is…

The fact is that the hard Brexiteers, in unwitting collusion with the Opposition, have overplayed their hand this week. Theresa May stumbled and should have published the legal advice on her deal; but she will not go quietly into the night now after all the pain and suffering. The meaningful vote might well be delayed if it looks like she is facing a rout.

There is no point in further speculation. Literally anything might happen in the next few days. But what is clear is that the odds of a People’s Vote have got shorter and the odds of a no-deal longer as parliament gets back in the driving seat. That is the only good news in a week of political calamities. To get us through all this, as they say in Dublin, we will need the luck of the Irish…

It was my Company’s annual seminar yesterday and I was really pleased to have Matthew Parris as our guest speaker. The content of his talk, however, couldn’t have been bleaker.

The Government is in huge chaos over Brexit; we are heading for a constitutional crisis; politicians or indeed journalists have no idea what will happen next; the Conservative Party is split down the middle; the Brexit ‘Taliban” wing (my words) of the Party is more than happy to shove the country over a cliff edge; the Opposition are useless. The list goes on…

What is certainly the case is that Brexit will make this country poorer and more irrelevant on the world stage. It is an unprecedented act of national self-harm.

So on this cheery note, here are the odds on possible outcomes. See it as a humble guide to what might happen next:

1. The likelihood of TM’s deal going through the House of Commons in its current form? Despite seemingly insurmountable opposition, enough MPs might just reach the conclusion there is no alternative hence the relatively high percentage score. 30%
2. If the Meaningful Vote fails, the likelihood of TM resigning? She has hung on so far and seems able to take unbelievable amounts of punishment in the name of public duty. 10%
3. A second vote on a slightly amended TM deal? 50%
4. Back to the drawing board with a humiliating request to the EU to delay our departure? This would almost certainly end TM’s premiership but is probably one of the more likely outcomes. 40%
5. New start. Approval of the Withdrawal Agreement only, followed by a negotiated Norway option – partly based on outcome 4) above? Unlikely. The Europeans would probably object, it doesn’t solve the immigration issue and TM would almost certainly have to resign if this was pursued.  But it also has powerful supporters. 30%
6. Implosion of the Conservative Party in its current form? Unlikely. Even they recognise the dangers of Turkeys voting for Christmas. 10%
7. General Election? Least likely option. It would tear the Conservative Party apart. Corbyn as PM. See Turkeys comment above. 5%
8. A People’s Vote? Unlikely as no consensus on the question. TM would almost certainly have to resign or navigate a stunning U-turn. The EU departure date would have to be put back particularly if the Tories seek a new leader. It will only happen if the country faces a constitutional crisis. 30%
9. A new centre party? In the near term 10%. In the medium term 50%

There you go. No certainty in any direction. Nobody really knows what is going to happen but after the economic forecasts of yesterday we will all suffer financially and a constitutional crisis beckons. An environment full of opportunity but only if you are a journalist…

The Brexit deal is a mess. Riddled with inconsistencies and with much heavy lifting to do in the transition period, it simply perpetuates uncertainty for another 18 months. The betting is that the transition period will be extended and this is what really scares hard Brexiteers. They fear we may never leave or not without a “Peoples’ Vote” which becomes more legitimate if it is several years hence. Hooray…they should be scared!

May’s deal leaves the UK as a EU rule taker without representation. It is unique to the UK but not in a good way. We had a unique deal in the first place with an EU budget rebate, being outside the Schengen Agreement and also the working time directive. None of this was discussed in the referendum let alone Northern Ireland, backstop agreements and an accurate, honest assessment of the divorce bill.

The politicians in this country have ironically been in full control of damaging the UK’s future. Congratulations to them. They have succeeded.

Yet it could have been worse… Admittedly a Norway style agreement might have worked better but this was long off the table. That left us with a no-deal scenario and everyone I have spoken to in government says they are sitting on information that would scare the public to death. The complacency of the Tories’ hard right, in the face of facts they well know, is genuinely shocking.

So well done Theresa May for getting some sort of deal. Her tenacity and sense of public duty in crossing a temporary finish line is magnificent to behold. The punishment she has taken from colleagues, particularly from those wishing to remove her at a crucial stage of negotiations, is quite frankly a disgrace; the experience of watching the dramas unfold has been akin to a scary fairground ride or horror movie; the Opposition, not fit to hold that title, has opposed with ignorance, stupidity and self-serving drivel. The Prime Minister deserves a medal, her Party does not.

As for the future? My guess is that TM gets the deal passed, incredible as that seems at the moment, and hangs on to the Tory leadership for longer than people expect. Do Labour then lose patience with Corbyn? Not this side of the election.

As for the Tory Party as a whole? It has lost its reputation for loyalty, competence and common sense. It should fear a new centrist party as much as anyone. And for the mess they have put this country in, sad to say, it deserves everything it gets.