Some of these blogs have been described as relentlessly gloomy so as the sun shines and the bags are packed for the summer holidays, it feels the right time to at least start with a few of the better current aspects of life in the UK.

First, the cricket. At the weekend, in the most thrilling of World Cup finals, England won by pipping New Zealand at the post in what can only be described as the equivalent of a penalty shoot-out. Fantastic. 8 million people sat on the edge of their seats watching the drama unfold on terrestrial television. An unheard-of audience for cricket, particularly when it clashed with the Wimbledon Men’s Final. So the lesson is to move this sport back on to free-view television channels away from pay only channels. Cricket can then capitalise on the momentum of England’s win and regain the hearts of the British public permanently. And that is before the Ashes…

Taking pride in Pride. In all the talk of the xenophobic climate created by Brexit, and a harsher tone in public life generally, it is worth reminding ourselves that the UK is mostly a liberal, progressive country in the very best sense. 1.5 million people turned out for Gay Pride in London earlier this month and it was a brilliant and fun spectacle for people of all sexual orientations. The run-up to the event had hundreds of companies decorating their buildings with rainbow colours. Whilst there were some grumbles about commercial exploitation, it is worth reminding ourselves that there used to be nothing ‘commercial’ about supporting gay rights even 15-20 years ago and that to discriminate on any related grounds is not only illegal but actually not acceptable to the vast majority of the public. To add to this, Alan Turing, the brilliant World War II code-breaker who took his own life when faced with chemical castration to deal with his homosexuality, now adorns Britain’s new £50 note. How far we have come.

But then, sadly, it all seems a little tarnished by the display of British democracy on show over the summer. An electorate of just 160,000 unrepresentative Conservative Party members, who support anything from the death penalty to breaking up the Union for the sake of Brexit, get to choose our next PM. The choice is between two candidates prepared to wreak havoc on the British economy just to win the election. They have spent the savings from 10 years of austerity already through reckless promises given in dull, almost staged Party debates and Johnson, the way ahead front-runner, incredibly, also uses these occasions to threaten to suspend Parliament to get a no-deal through. Wasn’t the Brexit vote about ‘taking back control’ from the EU through re-establishing the primacy of parliamentary democracy?

So time to leave the country for a while and head to good old France. They might not get cricket or put on a Pride celebration like London but, with all their revolutionary fervour, at least they are not tearing themselves apart over leaving the EU. And, in a reversal of the usual pattern of history, the English Channel from the opposite side, offers at least temporary respite from the fun and frolics of English excess that is likely to be Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Happy Summer Holidays!

Extraordinary…

Let’s start with the Tories. Boris Johnson is proving to be one of the most divisive PMs in modern history and that is before he has even taken office. The former Tory PM, John Major, threatens to take the Government, run by his own party, to court if it tries to suspend parliament to deliver Brexit. Johnson won’t rule this out.

Then we have ‘Ambassadorgate’. Britain’s Ambassador to the US is forced to resign in the face of a bullying, out-of-control President. Trump refuses to do business with him after the leaking of ‘diplomatic’ intelligence giving a frank assessment of the incompetence of the Trump Administration. Sir Kim Darroch could have clung on had Johnson chosen to back him in a leadership debate. He didn’t and, as the next UK PM, that made Darroch’s position untenable, hence his departure. In a breath-taking interview, a serving British Foreign Office minister calls Johnson’s actions ‘contemptible’, accusing him of having ‘thrown our ambassador under a bus’. What is it about Johnson and buses?

Equally incredible, the current PM, Theresa May, is threatening to appoint a US ambassador before Johnson takes office, in turn facing attacks from Johnson’s supporters who claim it is a deliberate sabotage of his approach to US/UK relations.

All of this will have no impact on the Tory leadership battle of course. The Tory membership is overwhelmingly white, male and ‘older’; in favour of hanging, Farage and breaking up the Union to achieve Brexit if necessary. Like Trump, any scandal washes off Johnson…for now…and he will become the PM the week after next.

And whatever his detractors say, Johnson is no buffoon. He is a dissembler, an embracer of the far-right when it suits him, and ruthless. With no political principles and a chaotic private life (no moral judgement here but where will he find the time to stay on top of the detail…?), he will go to any lengths to gain and hold power, possibly destroying many unwritten constitutional principles in the process. He will embrace Trump along the way and will move the Tories, at least in appearance, to the Alt. right. In fact many Tory MPs think he will blow up in office quite quickly; but are banking on him getting them through Brexit first. Oh dear…

Now to the Labour Party. Destroyed by a BBC documentary yesterday on anti-Semitism, it is over for Corbyn who is allegedly not in good health anyway. Split on Brexit, essentially Marxist in all but name, riven by factions and with most able Labour MPs refusing to serve on the front bench, they are offering no opposition to the chaotic Tories.

The future? The best is that Johnson negotiates an amended Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Unlikely. The most favoured option is that in the face of an intransigent EU and with no parliamentary majority, Johnson calls a snap General Election on a manifesto of a hard, no-deal Brexit. The hope is that this achieves victory by absorbing Brexit Party support. The alternative is a Labour, LibDem, nationalist parties coalition limping on to a second General Election, suspending Article 50 in the process and splitting the country. Yuk!

There seems no optimistic way forward and the focus might as well be on enjoying the summer holidays, preferably at a safe distance from the imploding political system back at home.

Away from the grim tedium of British politics and its cadre of self-serving politicians, two reports this week merit some observations on the health of the planet.

THE BBC ran a clip on the Amazon rain forest highlighting the pace of its destruction. Under the stewardship of the populist, President Bolsonaro, who believes the rights of farmers ‘trump’ environmental concerns, destruction of the Brazilian rain forest incredibly is speeding up. One football-pitch sized piece of rain forest is being destroyed every 60 seconds with all the threats to indigenous populations and wildlife that brings. That is before we consider that the Brazilian rain forest currently absorbs 20% of the world’s carbon dioxide.

At the same time, a piece of analysis from the shrewd Gideon Rachman in this week’s FT about ‘the perilous politics of climate change’ appeared. In Australia, amid unprecedented high temperatures and drought, a conservative coalition intent on embracing fossil fuels won a surprise election victory. As Rachman suggests, when you take the US into consideration too, there are ‘important and potentially discouraging lessons for climate campaigners’. Politicians advocating radical actions to tackle climate change are at risk of electoral defeat if it is perceived to hit living standards.

Climate change and protection of the planet are key concerns of a good part of the electorate. It is now high up in the list of concerns of the investment community as it embraces Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) policies. It is apparently ranked as the top issue by US Democrats. The Green Party surges across Europe. Then David Attenborough makes a guest appearance at Glastonbury to wild cheers, not heard since the appearance of Jeremy Corbyn…umm…

More needs to be done to allow climate change and environmental concerns to overcome populism and define election results, however. It cannot be an issue simply of the wealthy and better educated. Or left to Extinction Rebellion blocking roads in London.

Which takes us to a second article in the FT. Yesterday, one by an equally shrewd Martin Wolf, outlined the causal link between liberalism and stronger economic performance. Societies that embrace economic and political rights guarded by independent legal systems are wealthier. Those that do not are not. Take Russia for example.

So combining liberalism with the case for tackling climate change both at a micro and macro level in language that wins over those who embrace populism might just work. That means not just lofty scientific reports by inter-governmental organisations (the ‘elites’) but explaining country by country, district by district, what it means for them. The cost of environmental disaster versus a vibrant green technology industry creating jobs and wealth for everybody. You have coherent debate backed by facts in a liberal setting applicable to all voters.

Actually, the UK is getting quite good at this as it seeks to become carbon neutral by 2050. Even on the Right of the political spectrum, May and Gove, sometimes offset sadly by the lovely populist, Johnson, are good advocates of the benefits of liberalism and environmental considerations.

So, imagine a world where coherent policies on the environment determine most election results. Where liberalism dominates populism on this topic through open, fact-based debate because it is couched in terms everyone can understand and benefit from. A world where David Attenborough is listened to by everybody. Now there is a goal to aim for and, to use an unfortunate analogy in this context, ‘kills two birds with one stone’…

Lunching with a senior journalist this week, he professed optimism about British politics. As I recovered from my choking spasm and incredulously asked why, he spoke warmly about the destruction of the two-party political system and coalition politics becoming a permanent feature in the UK. He may well be right. All very German, Italian, Dutch…etc.

This unplanned consequence of Brexit is, with a little concentration, easy to understand. The Tories and Labour are moving to the extremes, the latter under Corbyn, the former under the soon to be anointed Johnson. These two great parties used to contain a spectrum of views. Big tent politics if you like. But no longer. Both are looking at deselecting MPs who don’t fully embrace socialism/Marxism or Brexit. It is scandalous, a tragedy, but it will usher in a new form of politics which may justify that journalist’s optimism; coalition politics embracing moderates from all sides. After all, many argue the 2010-2015 Tory/Lib Dem coalition worked. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal and pro-Europe.

The move of Corbyn’s Labour Party to the far left has been well documented but what about the Tory Party? The Tory membership has apparently grown from c120,000 to c160,000 with new members who joined up to 3 months ago being allowed to vote in the current leadership contest. Since Theresa May’s departure has been well trailed for at least the past 12 months, it was always easy, particularly with help from the lovely rich activist, Arron Banks, for former UKIP members to infiltrate the Tories and tilt it further in a purist Brexit direction.

Johnson will become the Tories’ leader and Prime Minister, barring any further serious mishaps, on a hard Brexit agenda – and he is setting the 31st October date to leave the EU in stone, deal or no deal. He has said that he cannot countenance any opposition to this stance from within his Cabinet, so no room for moderates then. There is also an active campaign in place to deselect those dozen or so highly pro-Remain Tory MPs, again with the help of Arron Banks. The Tories are increasingly becoming a populist, right-wing Brexit party in all but name.

Even when it comes to broader issues such as tax, cuts have been mooted for the rich, as austerity and the broader health of the economy are sacrificed on the altar of leadership ambition. To be fair to Johnson, at least he is a social liberal, but Brexit is the defining issue of the day and it will stain the Tory Party for a generation.

So, how will all this play out? The Liberal Democrats are soaring, and the Greens are prospering too. The nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales are also getting a boost. Labour may change leader (Tom Watson?) or split. A snap General Election in the face of EU ‘intransigence’ at failing to re-open the Withdrawal Agreement may allow the Tories to absorb a good proportion of the current Brexit Party’s support but a parliamentary majority? Hardly likely in the ensuing chaos.

Strikes me that we may be in for a long period of coalition politics. Neither the Labour or Conservative parties will attract enough support from their increasingly narrow electoral bases to command a parliamentary majority on their own, possibly for a generation. It is exactly what they deserve.

‘Bumboys’, ‘piccaninnies’, ‘watermelon smiles’, ‘letter boxes’…We have had them all from the Tories’ runaway favourite for leader, Boris Johnson. A man who has been sacked twice for lying to his Editor and Party Leader. Other allegations swirl around him too. It won’t matter. The Tories are desperate and bored. He will overwhelm Hunt and be crowned PM in July. The only saving grace is that many of us will be out of the country on holiday then.

So it is time to look forward and see what a Johnson administration will be like. He will almost certainly assemble many of his London Mayoral team around him to manage the detail. Even his strongest supporters admit this is not his forte.

But in parliament:

• First the Cabinet. He will include several of the contenders. Almost certainly Hancock, Hunt and Javid. Gove and Leadsom’s futures are more uncertain. Rumours have it of Raab for Attorney General but not Truss for Chancellor. The quixotic but highly talented Rory Steward has ruled himself out of working with Johnson. One hopes his time will come although I doubt it. Grayling and probably Gauke will be gone too. It will be interesting to see what happens to Rudd and Rees-Mogg. Johnson will be keen to establish his One Nation credentials (ex-Brexit) which favours the former and hardly the latter!
• Lower ranks. After that there will be talented backers from the ‘next generation’ moving up the ministerial ranks such as James Cleverly, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rishi Sunak, Kit Malthouse to name but a few. Look at his earliest backers and then cross-check with the website ConservativeHome. As good a guide as any.

On policy:

• Brexit. The common view is that the EU will make minor concessions on the backstop. Just enough for Johnson to claim victory in the context of an extended transition period. If not, we are heading for a No Deal exit from the EU. It is ultimately difficult to see Parliament blocking this even with the help of the Speaker and would renegade Remain Tories bring down their own government in a no-confidence vote? We shall see.
• Economics. Forget those tax cuts for the better off, downgraded to an aspiration already. Infrastructure spending and a review of HS2 are on the cards but the latter will be kept on in some form. A bright committed thinker on social care (Hunt?) will make this a priority and there will be more money for schools.
• Foreign policy. A glamorous trip to the US beckons. Trump and the alt.right generally will embrace Johnson. Will Johnson be conventional, wary of a backlash back home? One doubts he cares and his ego and careless language may get the better of him. His Foreign Secretary will have his/her work cut out for them.

On the Opposition:

• Labour. Prime Ministers can be lucky and Johnson couldn’t be luckier. Despite no overall majority, he has Corbyn and a clumsily hostile SNP to deal with. When will Labour get their act together? Not this side of a General Election. They are hopelessly split and hopelessly led. One person to watch is Tom Watson, long predicted to be the next leader of the Labour Party by smart Guardian journalists, but wishful thinking I suspect.
• Liberal Democrats. Can you name their leadership contenders? I doubt it! Looking dreary at the moment but early days. If they get a sound economic policy in place then, in addition to their stance on Brexit, they may garner many moderate Tory voters. If polling suggests they could win 30/40/50 seats very difficult to see the Tories winning an overall majority in a future General Election, even if they do see off the Brexit Party, and an informal Lib/Lab alliance beckons. Hardly inspiring.

Almost nothing can touch Johnson at this stage. He is our Teflon Trump. But the role of PM is huge and cannot be filled by expert advisers alone. Many Tory MPs backing him know full well a Johnson administration may blow up within 12 months but just want him to deliver Brexit and Farage’s head on a plate first. A quick post Brexit General Election beckons and certainly one before 2022 if the Tories soar in the polls. Unlikely.

Can politics be entertaining and depressing at the same time? We are about to find out…

So now we have it…The Top Ten…the cream of Britain’s political class…the solution to all the country’s ills. Really? This is the widest choice of candidates Tories have ever been presented with for the leadership (the previous record was five candidates), but it is also the shallowest.

The main problem, however, is the ‘selectorate’. 313 Tory MPs, terrified of a Corbyn victory in the face of the Brexit Party, are panicking and will vote for any ‘prophet’ who will save them from Farage, regardless of the longer-term consequences. Then there is the Tory membership; allegedly 160,000. Mostly older, right-wing and almost uniformly anti-EU voters, they have often in the past and will, now, vote on the basis of Europe, not talent or wider electoral appeal. Think Hague and Ian Duncan-Smith. They will probably deliver to the wider public a new Brexit Party in all but name, anchoring the perception of a move to the populist right for a generation.

And, with the exception of Rory Stewart, if we explore these candidates in more depth, you find that, ex Brexit, their core appeal is also to squander the hard-won gains from austerity. We are still running a deficit, there are real problems with social care and the delivery of local authority services generally, in infrastructure spending, particularly in the North. But billions are pledged elsewhere with the most ludicrous proposal coming from the front runner, Boris Johnson. Tax cuts for those earning over £50,000 (ex Scotland of course), spending the Brexit dividend before he has any idea how to access it.

And that takes us to Boris Johnson in more detail…What does it say about a candidate who is kept out of the limelight for fear of making a gaffe and ruining his chances of leadership? A man who is loose with the truth, flirts with the alt.right and has little attention to detail. Of course, he is socially liberal (he would have to be…) which doesn’t chime with many of his supporters, so he is staying quiet on this too. And he is charismatic. A rare quality in today’s Tories. But that is not enough. Being Prime Minister is serious, grinding business as many occupants not really up to it have found out and we certainly don’t need a Donald Trump Mark II. The best put down came from Max Hastings who, as editor, employed Johnson at The Telegraph. To paraphrase him, he thinks Johnson sees himself as a Winston Churchill figure when in reality he is more Steve Coogan.

On Brexit generally, the best question to wannabee leaders came from the Tory MP, Sam Gyimah, who didn’t make it to the final 10. He will vote for the person who has a plan B when the EU doesn’t re-open negotiations and there is no No-Deal majority in Parliament. We haven’t had a definitive answer from most candidates yet, least of all Johnson.

On his performance to date, the next leader should be Rory Stewart but the final battle will probably be between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson with the latter the hot favourite. Unlike many of the candidates in their past, we will be forced to watch this unedifying contest without the benefits of chemical stimuli…

As the free world commemorates the 75th anniversary of D-Day, one of the most memorable speeches came from the Queen at the US State Banquet on Monday night. Standing next to President Trump, it was as close as any leader got to even gently chastising him about his priorities. The Tory leadership wannabees in particular had their heads too much up his firmament to try and influence his opinions. It is worth quoting the relevant paragraph from Her Majesty in full:

“As we face the new challenges of the Twenty First Century, the anniversary of D-Day reminds us of all that our countries have achieved together. After the shared sacrifices of the Second World War, Britain and the United States worked with other allies to build an assembly of international institutions, to ensure that the horrors of conflict would never be repeated. While the world has changed, we are forever mindful of the original purpose of these structures: nations working together to safeguard a hard won peace.”

So, which are these international institutions? The UN, NATO and the EU, all loathed by Trump and his administration in favour of dictators who ignore international norms such as Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un. You can add to ‘institutions’ those international agreements relating to climate change and Iran too.

Of course, it is sensible to ask countries to pay their fair share on defence, to challenge corruption in the UN and challenge restrictive trade practices within the EU, but not pull the rug from under them. The alternative is a world of competing individual nation states, each focused solely on putting their own interests first. That route leads to hostilities and war. This is the philosophy of the Alt. Right, of Trump and, as we understand it, partly the philosophy of the likely next leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.

Nearly all the major issues facing the global community are cross-border ones, whether it is economic, climate or defence related. As the technological revolution gains speed, so globalisation speeds up too. It is not going to go away and Trump’s many erratic America First impulses are no solution.

Size also matters. Here in the UK, for example, do we really think, on our own, we can influence trade when we are a little over 3% of global exports? Do we really think we can influence the global economy when we are 2.4% of global GDP? Do we really think we can influence defence related matters when we have less than 100,000 soldiers and four nuclear submarines reliant on US technology? These international institutions matter, not least the EU.

There is one aspect, however, where size doesn’t matter, where the UK is unique. It is the presence of the Royal Family. I am not a particular royalist but watching them massage the ego of Trump whilst reminding him of the legitimacy of international institutions was quite special. It put our current crop of cringing politicians in government to shame.

The Tory Party: 185 years in existence and in democratic terms, the most successful political force in history.  It has had its moments. The Corn Laws (1846) for example, which led to some 30 years in the wilderness, but this was a matter of economic common sense in the interests of all of Britain’s people. The Tories came back with a vengeance.

It achieved this unprecedented electoral success by being a pragmatic, centre-right party, which knew that a ruthless focus on power through delivering economic progress was the only objective that mattered.

Not now. It started with Thatcher; for many years a brilliant prime minister who, love her or loathe her, made the political weather and changed the direction of the country. She was actually quite pragmatic until the last few years and in her heyday would have never got us into this intractable mess with the EU. But she left office bitter, broken partly on the back of Europe although personal style mattered too. And on Party issues, she was never as benign as she professed. She began to turn the Tory Party into an ideological grouping and the seeds of its destruction were sown. Since 1992 it has only won one election with an overall majority. This new ideological approach was electoral suicide and the evidence is, well, evident.

And today, the Tories have still not learnt and are imploding. They are a rabble. A disgrace even, with able, moderate voices being extinguished by ideology from an increasingly unrepresentative, (of the electorate), shrinking membership generally, and the ERG wing in particular. It is the latter who have brought down May. Her many mistakes were dominated by ever believing that pandering to them would work. It needed more nimble, charismatic leadership to win. She needed to face up to her European extremists, in the process building alliances out of persuasion rather than necessity. Hey ho, we are where we are.

The EU elections were a well signalled disaster for the Tories. Farage, so much more able than most of his opponents, built a slick one issue campaign (take note remainers). He siphoned votes across the spectrum but particularly from the Tories and he did well. Hats off to him.

The Tories response? A further move to the right. Incredible. Probably at this stage Johnson or Raab, assuming they don’t blow up, will win the leadership, certainly if one of them reaches the final round of membership voting. They will pursue a no deal Brexit to head off Farage.

It will be the end of the Tory Party if either of them win. No liberal posturing on other policies will save it. This party was not built, and never succeeded, on the foundations of one issue. Its famed pragmatism would have led it to turn away from any act of national economic self-harm. And, in the past, even with its hostility to the EU, the Tory Party would never have voted for Johnson. He is a dangerous dissembler who carelessly flirts with the Alt. Right and its many dubious travellers, promoting divisive, jingoistic nationalism. The wider electorate know this.

On its current course, moderates will leave and by default the Tories will become a populist right-wing party, which will not win another election outright again. The centre-right/ centre/ centre-left (courtesy of Corbyn) ground is wide open and ripe for taking by a new generation of more talented politicians. If it wasn’t for the initial pain, you could almost feel optimistic!

At a client meeting the other day, a Chief Executive pointed me to a book by Joan Williams: ‘White Working Class; Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’. It is a must for understanding the often complex reasons for the rise of populism in America and more widely. If you read it, get it, and are in a position to help implement solutions, you are on your way to defeating the populist surge we are joylessly experiencing.

Brexit…

But first, Brexit. I know…I know…I wasn’t going to mention it but Theresa May’s speech about a ‘big, bold gesture’ yesterday needs acknowledging. It was dead in the water before she sat down…All positions on Brexit have now become more entrenched – just watch the EU elections. Tories will not agree to a vote on a second referendum, Labour see no advantage in rescuing Theresa May. Her premiership is dead in the water. She will be replaced as PM probably by a hard Brexiteer. Europe will tell them to bog off as they seek a re-negotiated exit. There will likely be an inconclusive General Election and only a second People’s Vote will lay the issue to rest. Much more pain to come.

Back to the book…

Anyway, more positively, back to Joan Williams’ book. She debunks myths about Trump supporters based on strong evidence. They are not poor. Only 12% of his voters had annual incomes below $30k. The white working class who supported him have reasonable incomes and are hard working, blue collar participants who feel patronised by wealthy professionals and want it to stop. Their moral traits of drive and rigorous self discipline are admired more widely across the working class. Trump did better with some minorities than ever expected.

The ‘professional elite’ also like hard work of course but have time for being ‘disruptive’. They avoid the ‘traditional’ of character, morality and family values which are perceived as a key expression of class disadvantage. It sounds like culture wars. Oh dear.

Interestingly, according to Williams, the white working class admire the rich and don’t mind their tax cuts. Brash, wealthy celebrities epitomise the fantasy of being wildly rich whilst avoiding the ‘two-facedness’ of professionals. Think Trump. Many might not like his character but they don’t see him as hypocritical. Umm…

At the other end of the scale Trump supporters dislike those subsidies paid to the feckless very poor who have chaotic lives. Disproportionately black it can lead to racism but this needs to be carefully calibrated with hidden racism elsewhere and the attitudes of more successful ethnic minorities. Impatience spills into affirmative action towards women, some ethnic minorities and the LGBTQ community generally. It is not that the white working class are simply fired up with prejudice. They just feel ignored or insulted by disproportionate attention being focused elsewhere as their economic fortunes ‘tank’. And that, of course, leads us to globalisation, the death of traditional industries at the heart of Trump’s supporters and the popularity of trade wars.

Whether you like them or not, the attitudes of Trump’s supporters need to be understood and dealt with. A Trump supporter described it as ‘We’re voting with our middle finger’. Perfectly put but we don’t want it to continue!

So the solutions lie in re-training for those displaced by globalisation and that does not mean college degrees either but practical mid-level skills training seemingly looked down upon by the governing class. It means careful explaining of where government intervention works. It means compromise on the vital liberal issues of LGBTQ rights, race, religion and gender so they don’t crowd out tackling the economic decline and consequent downward mobility of the white working class. It is not an either, or, but has felt like it. Democrats can’t win alone on an alliance of the professional, mainly white class and minorities, particularly with the Electoral College constituted as it is. But the white working class should not have been disproportionately ignored anyway. Empathy, more evenly spread, is required.

Many won’t like this book and its classifications but it is well researched and written by a social liberal not a conservative. It deserves consideration.

Turning to the UK, some of the analogies don’t work such as America’s focus on religion and intense dislike of ‘big government’. But many do. UK regions outside the South East have felt ignored and patronised. The professions ‘look down’ on those who voted Brexit but standards of living have fallen relatively for many and they don’t feel globalisation or a remote, often arrogant EU, has benefited them. Immigration has increased the sense of threat. Training has too often focused on college degrees and not on those mid-level skills. Then there is housing…The list is long but understanding the cultural conflicts is key to changing attitudes and providing longer term policy solutions.

Just like in America, compromises can be made in all the priorities policy makers face, starting with a genuine understanding of the concerns of those outside the ‘professions’ generally and the South East in particular. We are all reasonable people and whilst Brexit might happen, if we do this, the populists can be repelled.

There you go. A more optimistic end to a blog at last!

The trauma of Brexit will go on endlessly; the major parties are split, the country is split. There is no way out and anyone who tells you otherwise is being untruthful.

These are the reasons:

1. There is no majority in the Commons for any Brexit solution; not a no-deal, Withdrawal Agreement, remain, Norway option, customs union, second vote or anything else.
2. It is unlikely the talks between Labour and the Conservatives will amount to anything. Most Tories will not accept even a temporary customs union, a deal on workers’ rights which ties the hand of future governments, let alone a second vote. Labour are wary of a second vote and are opposed to anything that doesn’t involve customs alignment and ultimately access to a single market. Labour also have no reason to bail Theresa May out.
3. There will be no imminent General Election. Electoral suicide for the Tories and DUP and may not even be attractive to Labour.
4. A new Tory leader, certainly inevitable this year (Theresa May I am afraid is finished), will not change any of the above calculations although their lack of legitimacy may bring an election closer. A Brexiteer will sow more division, a Remainer (that will be a Remainer who has changed their mind and campaigns for a relatively clean Brexit…) is unlikely to win but, if so, will also split the Tories. Neither option will create a majority solution in the Commons.
5. The revival of the Liberal Democrats in the local elections is promising but still largely tactical. Change UK or TIGs (who now cares?) have blown it.
6. In the European elections, despite polls suggesting a small Remain majority, Farage will triumph mostly at the expense of the Tories with the Remain parties ruining their chances since they can’t even form a Remain alliance for one pointless election.

We have a zombie government, a discredited political class and a divided public discourse which is corroding society. The country will be poorer for leaving the EU. We are already suffering a skills drain as EU citizens abandon the UK or are less attracted to come here.

Business is suffering in the black hole of not knowing when, if, or how we will leave the EU. Take the property sector, for example. Who would undertake major property deals in this vacuum?

Ignore growth figures and employment statistics. It is about the opportunity cost of what could have been had we not had this disruption.

Generational damage to this country by reckless politicians and our destructive decision to leave the EU is manifest everywhere. We need a new government, a General Election and a second vote. Actually no. We need a new political class of modern, outward facing leaders who are free from current obsessions and put the country before personal advancement.

You can see why many have had enough. That is probably 10 years away…