The LibDems and SNP drag Labour into Johnson’s trap

The focus has been on Tory ideological recklessness and Labour’s hopeless confusion over Brexit.

But in doing so we have overlooked the ambitions of the LibDems and the SNP. They are politicians after all, and their hubris has just got the better of them. Believing their electoral moment has come to maximise parliamentary gains they are acquiescing to Johnson’s demand for a December election. Admittedly there may be some compromise on the date; earlier in the week of the 9th to help capture Remain leaning university students before they head home for Christmas…but it is an early General Election, nevertheless. And Labour, in supporting the move, have now been dragged into the morass.

Remain supporting parties will indeed make gains, possibly significant ones, but the real momentum is with Johnson. He has been convincing in his desire for Brexit by end October and articulate in accusing Parliament of thwarting the ‘Will of the People’. He has an attractive agenda outside Brexit, aimed at winning over frustrated Labour voters who supported Leave. He has the money, a sophisticated social media presence and the charisma to win. Most importantly of all he has Corbyn; hopeless, extreme and confused. Most moderate voters of all persuasions and none simply can’t contemplate a Corbyn led Labour government.

It is a huge gamble by Johnson of course to abandon his Withdrawal Agreement ahead of an election but he has nowhere else to go. He can’t continue to languish in government but not in power; he can’t see his Withdrawal Agreement eviscerated during weeks of parliamentary debate; he can’t pass a vote of No Confidence in himself and lose what little influence he has over parliament (Salvini in Italy learnt this too late); most importantly he can’t risk Corbyn being replaced by a moderate Labour leader.

The odds are steep but it is now or never; ‘do or die’. The Tories could lose seats in Scotland and seats in the South East. Johnson could start 30 seats further behind, betting on Labour collapsing and the Brexit Party becoming a busted flush. A tall order but not by any means impossible.

And there is one final prize if he wins the General Election. He will deliver the hardest of Brexits. In tearing up Theresa May’s agreements to match European rules and regulations in key economic areas, he could well lead the UK to a post transition exit from the EU on WTO terms only. The purity of Johnson’s approach as we become a small, deregulated, free market island floating off the coast of Europe is enough to make the hearts of the hard-right Tory European Research Group (‘ERG’) soar.

So in their ambition to gain a stronger foothold in parliament (and for the SNP, another convincing go at Independence), this is the opportunity the LibDems and the SNP with Labour’s support have today presented to the Tory government.

The upside; a humbled Tory Party who, with no overall majority, regrets the experiment of Johnson as PM, and reverts back to the centre ground as a second Referendum and General Election beckons. The downside; a rampant Johnson led Tory government which crushes the Opposition and embraces a pure approach to Brexit; Trumpite in its embrace of alternative Right characteristics and willing to risk the breakup of the Union as a price worth paying.

Not worth the gamble it seems but it will be taken later today.

Making America small again…

Very little on Brexit this week. Anything could happen after Parliament rejected a straight yes/no motion on Johnson’s deal on Saturday, passed it as a Bill on Tuesday but not the Government’s proposed 3 day timetable. This means the UK almost certainly can’t leave the EU by end October as the ‘do or die’ Johnson promised. These are shrewd tactics by key Remainers. They can’t be blamed for blocking the deal but just want more time to scrutinize it. And what is wrong with that since it is apparently the largest piece of legislation to be presented to Parliament in 50 years?

The Government appeared distraught as scrutiny of the Bill over the coming weeks could lead to all sorts of amendments. Another messy period ahead with a Brexit election sometime before 31 January being the most likely outcome. It won’t be pretty.

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But over to America where politics is equally poisonous. My trip there last week coincided with a rough time for Trump. The impeachment process over allegations of tying military aid to Ukraine with an investigation by the Ukrainian authorities into the activities of Joe Biden’s son is starting to appear genuinely threatening to Trump. Revelations came thick and fast all week. He is a man who looks under pressure. Good!

Since my return, damaging evidence continues to accumulate. The top US diplomat in Ukraine, William B. Taylor Jr., on Tuesday alleged that Trump held up vital security aid for the country until Ukraine’s leader agreed to make a public pronouncement pledging to investigate Trump’s political rivals. This is from an ‘unimpeachable’ source and is perhaps the most dramatic yet.

The Democrats have been clever in pursuing the impeachment process in private but with key parts of testimonies being leaked. It allows for no partisan grandstanding whilst the most damaging revelations become public, enraging Trump who looks impotent. A majority of voters now think Trump should be impeached. Only the Senate will save him.

But the Republicans in the Senate are outraged at Trump’s policy over Syria in abandoning the loyal Kurds to the fate of Turkey’s President Erdogan. As Turkey invaded Syria to create a ‘safe zone’ free of Kurds near their southern border, guess who embraced Erdogan. No other than President Putin, who hosted a six hour summit on how they, and other regional players, will divide control over Syria. In a victory for Putin, Russian and Turkish troops will take control of a vast swathe of Kurdish controlled northern Syria, establishing Putin as the dominant power in the region.

Admittedly, it started with errors by Obama’s administration, but Trump is now overseeing the withering of America’s influence over the Middle East at a faster pace than ever. Combined with retreating from commitments to the UN, his well-known hostility to the EU and NATO, and an embrace of dictators such as Kim Jong Un, America’s foreign policies are a disaster. The US has also ceded ground across Africa to China with the latter pumping $90 billion into the region in 2018 alone. Add that to China’s investment into its new Silk Road and America’s growing capitulation is complete.

In some ways the election of Trump is understandable by a nation which has sunk some $6 trillion into pointless Middle East wars whilst median wages back home have stagnated, and inequality of wealth has soared. But Trump is making things much worse. Pulling back from global commitments and abandoning allies, whilst back at home funnelling tax cuts to the rich, is a sure way of ceding world super-power status quicker than ever to China. Other countries will follow over time. My experience in the US was to witness a country profoundly ill at ease with itself as the consequences of Trump’s actions to those outside his immediate core base become increasingly evident.

They say politics in the UK and US are a mirror image of each other. As the UK eventually leaves the EU and the US abandons the world stage, this is true. Divisiveness rules. In the process it is making America small again and the UK even tinier on its own than it was before.

A view from America

First, Brexit seems really boring and unfathomable from here so no updated views on Johnson’s mooted shabby deal until after Saturday…

I am sat in a hotel in New York watching US politics unfold on television. It is more interesting. There is no shyness about partisan broadcasting on this side of the pond. Fox News is avowedly Trumpite whilst CNN is vociferous in its support for the Democrats. In some ways it is awful but, guiltily, I have to admit it is not as stifling as the tedious ‘balance’ of the BBC.

And as the impeachment of Trump proceeds apace, at least through the House of Representatives, you are reminded that politics here is possibly even more crazily polarised than it is in the UK.

So what is happening?

First, Trump. It always has to be… He is looking genuinely rattled by the impeachment process. The evidence mounts of improper behaviour over Ukraine and even loyal Republicans are getting nervous. Trump’s ability to sell America’s interests down the river for personal advancement is resonating outside all but his core base. The Democrats don’t look quite as purely partisan in starting impeachment proceedings as they might have been. Trump also exploded in a meeting with senior Democrats yesterday including insulting Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker, to her face. They walked out and there is a sense Trump is losing the plot.

Then there is Syria. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Trump. His shocking misjudgment at selling out the Kurds by pulling out the few US troops left from northern Syria, with no apparent professional State Department advice, has shocked many Republican Senators such as the normally loyal Lindsey Graham. He needs people like these to save him from full impeachment. And, remember, the political professionals in the Republican Party really loathe Trump but have been forced to put up with him because of his grassroots popularity. They had nowhere else to go. They might now, particularly as polls are starting to turn against Trump in the uncommitted category.

However you then get the Democrats. Sadly, they are in some ways similar to Corbyn’s Labour Party in believing the solution to a move to the Right is to move to the Left. There was a debate on Tuesday amongst the leading contenders and here are a few thoughts.

Elizabeth Warren, the new left-wing frontrunner, looks somewhat vulnerable. Bernie Sanders, post heart attack, looks robust and convincing but only from a socialist perspective…Joe Biden, I feel, has lost it. When can you say in a rightly anti-ageist world that somebody is too old? I will leave it to others to decide. Who really impressed was Mayor Pete Buttigieg. A real talent but possibly not quite ready now. Very bright, moderate, calm and assured. There were other notable contributions, some bad, some good, but Trump still dominated. One feels he has to self implode to allow these mostly relative wallflowers to bloom.

So back to where we are. Groundhog Day. I wonder if Brexit will be the same…?

Johnson to fight Churchillian election

To paraphrase…I don’t know Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson is no Winston Churchill…

Image via Mirror (AFP/Getty Images)

Johnson fundamentally doesn’t want an EU deal. He wants a heroic departure. Why else would he leave it so late to concoct a proposed amended withdrawal deal which ensures border controls even if they are not ‘at or near’ the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland? Why would he threaten to flout the law by refusing to contemplate remaining in the EU post 31st October as parliament dictates? Why did he try for a lengthy prorogation of parliament? Why does he choose language such as ‘surrender’ and, yesterday, in his Party Conference speech, tangentially make reference to his tangles with the Supreme Court with the words ‘age of creative litigation’?

Regardless of whether Johnson strikes a Brexit deal with the EU and enough colleagues in Westminster, the next election will still be about ‘the People versus Parliament’ with all the dangerous precedents that sets. Referenda throughout history have been used by the majority (however narrow) to subjugate the minority and it is no different now. You trash representative democracy, pay lip service to our Supreme Court and mislead the Queen. You remain unrepentant because you are a warrior; a warrior against European domination and the fashionable elites. That is the Churchillian pose of this Prime Minister. If he is allowed to get away with it, the long-term consequences are shocking. Not least if this most un-Tory of leaders is followed by a Marxist Prime Minister, who uses such precedents to even greater effect.

Johnson has nowhere else to go. His strategy, crafted by Cummings, is set in stone. It is do or die.

So, will he get away with it? Quite possibly. Labour, under the hopeless Corbyn, provides Johnson with a huge window of opportunity. The Tories, after all, despite the Brexit Party, are 11% ahead in the opinion polls. An array of populist Tory spending pledges (what happened to Tory economic prudence?) may reinforce their lead as they seek to steal Labour seats in the North. The LibDems will do well but may not match expectations with their hard Remain stance in the Brexit South West undermining prospects there.

Then we would have a truly Churchillian victory. Gulp!

However, the Tories will lose seats in Scotland after Ruth Davidson’s departure and their DUP allies may lose ground in Northern Ireland, even handing victory to Sinn Fein. They will lose several heavily Remain seats in the South East and London. And the evidence in previous elections is that Tory spending pledges and Brexit are not quite enough to peel votes from Labour in its strongholds. Finally, Farage is not going anywhere and certainly if we have not left the EU by 31st October, the Brexit Party will be rejuvenated whatever Johnson’s bluster.

On balance, only that fundamentally unwanted EU deal, or God forbid, a pact with the Brexit Party, guarantees an election victory for Johnson otherwise a hung parliament and a second referendum beckons.

Not quite so Churchillian after all.

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Extreme versus Extreme; looking good for the Liberal Democrats

Two extreme leaders. No, I am not talking about Johnson sitting next to Trump* at the UN, treating the abeyance of law as an inconvenience, but Johnson versus Corbyn. More about Corbyn’s Labour Party later.

First, the extraordinary situation of the Government’s proroguing of Parliament being declared illegal, unanimously, by our entirely objective Supreme Court. It is without precedent. Brexit was about ‘taking back control of our own laws’. Well that has happened with a vengeance. Hurrah.

Lady Hale delivering Supreme Court verdict. Image via Independent

Johnson, led by his out of control adviser, Dominic Cummings, has disgraced his office. His actions have been entirely un-Conservative. Whilst this ruling does not resolve Brexit, a scorched earth policy of driving Brexit through by 31st October is unravelling. Too many mistakes, too quickly. He should resign and be replaced by a moderate, caretaker Conservative leader who seeks cross party consensus on a way out of the Brexit impasse, offering the electorate a series of options to be voted on by order of preference. That new leader should, in the process, also start to rebuild the Conservative Party on the centre-right ground.

Stage left, so to speak, we then have the disastrous Labour Party’s conference which has already been largely forgotten. That is a shame. It began with an attempt to abolish the role of Deputy Leader because the holder, Tom Watson, disagreed with the Leader. Then a series of far left policies; a stubbornly chaotic approach to Brexit, reckless spending, confiscation of company shareholdings, the abolition of private education, wasteful free prescriptions for all, a four day working week. One could go on. The whole conduct of the conference was, well, very Animal Farm.

The two major parties, always a coalition of views, have lost their way. They have moved to the extreme Right and Left, and if they are to survive in their current form need to reform, starting with a review of their membership to remove the influence of infiltrators.

Today, the moderate LibDems look good; largely moderate, reforming and with a crystal clear policy on Brexit. They may not triumph whenever there is a general election, but they deserve to do very well. They are streets ahead in terms of balance and focus.

In a period of chaos, we should pause for a moment and praise our Supreme Court; smart, rational and objective when our politicians are anything but. Lady Hale, the president, was majestic. Her spider brooch worn during her judgement has apparently being turned into a T-shirt. Over 2000 have already been sold in aid of cancer research. You should buy one whilst stocks last as a souvenir of the defence of democracy in momentous times…

*Donald Trump looked very rattled yesterday. Perhaps he is unwell but his exceptionally orange, tired appearance at the UN sat next to Johnson made uncomfortable watching. Two men under immense pressure, with at least one facing impeachment…

Notes from the Liberal Democrat conference…

In sunny Bournemouth earlier this week for the LibDem annual conference, testing the health of centre ground politics in the UK. You will be pleased to know it is alive and kicking but, my, is it exhausting! The LibDems hold the only truly democratic conference of the major parties. There are motions and amendments on all sorts of issues. All debated in minute detail by people who, with their rucksacks and casual dress, often look like renegades from Glastonbury.

Jo Swinson via Sky News

But the delegates are earnest and mostly nice, campaigning fanatics who are incredibly valuable to the British political process, and not to be dismissed. They are making their mark and are resilient to past near wipe outs.

Then there are the newbies at the conference. The number of LibDem MPs has swollen to 18 with defections from both the Tory and Labour parties and there are some real stars among the new intake. Chuka Umunna is immensely impressive and spoke with real charisma. You can see why the new LibDem leader, Jo Swinson, is so pleased to have him, sprinkling stardust everywhere and taking the pressure off her always to perform. He could be leader one day.

For the Tories, Sarah Wollaston also spoke well, and both seem at home in their new party.

And now to Brexit…To date, this is the sole reason for the rejuvenation of the LibDems and quite right too with their firmly pro-EU stance. Their new policy of simply cancelling Brexit if they win a General Election is also smart politics regardless of some doubts that it trashes the last referendum result. The policy is crystal clear and creates a sharp definition to Labour’s woolly stance. Those voting LibDem for the first time at the next election will do so for one reason and one reason only; to stop Brexit. You might as well be ruthless about it.

For the LibDems to make ground-breaking progress, however, they need to have simple, attractive policies beyond Brexit and those should not just be about ‘re purposing capitalism’ and constitutional reform as advocated by the rather self-satisfied political economist, Will Hutton, at fringe meetings. They need tougher, quick win economic policies. They also need to fully recover from the trauma of being in a perfectly good coalition with the Tories under Cameron if they are going to provide a true safe haven for those on the centre-right ground.

Politics in the UK is broken. You only have to witness the Government before our Supreme Court justifying the suspension of parliament to know this. Against this backdrop, the success of the LibDems is refreshing and needed and Jo Swinson has made a solid start. But for many of those who have loyally supported other parties, in my case the Tories, beyond being a home for tactical voting on Brexit, I am not sure. The jury is still out…

Johnson has only one certain way out: an EU deal…

What a couple of weeks! When Johnson became PM, political life was always going to become more colourful but, looking like a set from a Tarantino film, it may be too much even for him…

The strategy of Cummings (Johnson’s senior adviser and the real driver of events) and Johnson was always to enact a scorched earth policy to ensure EU departure by 31st October. With total contempt for the Tory Party and Parliament, Cummings’ aim was to move the Tories and the political agenda to a hard Brexit versus Remain, accuse Parliament of betraying the people and crush the Brexit Party on the way to a famous General Election victory. Grassroots Tories mostly like this even though it was too much for 21 Tory MPs, expelled from the Party for voting against their own government. Other moderates are feeling distinctly queasy.

So how has this strategy fared? On the upside for the hard Brexiteers, Johnson’s brutal approach at least smacks of some leadership and he polls far more strongly than Corbyn. Overall opinion poll ratings have held up and there is a glimmer of hope that a General Election victory may just be possible. The good news, however, stops there.

The danger with a deliberately provocative approach is that it is high risk and makes governing more vulnerable to unexpected ‘events’ and, my, has there been an avalanche of these.

Let’s just run through a few. Ruth Davidson, the moderate, hugely popular Scottish Tory leader, resigns putting probably 10 Scottish Tory seats at risk. Then, incredibly, Johnson’s own brother resigns citing a conflict between the national interest and family. Less of an impact, but still damaging, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, resigns out of the blue outraged at the expulsion of 21 colleagues. Proroguing Parliament for an extended period ‘whips up’ determined opposition to Johnson’s team and boosts extensive cross-party cooperation. Rees Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, and Cummings’ consistent goading of moderate Tory MPs has also made the Tory moderates’ rebellion worse.

The consequences? There will now be no General Election in October; Johnson is humiliatingly instructed to seek a deal with the EU or extend membership until end January and is now also forced to publish private communications on the real reasons for proroguing parliament.

Lastly, Speaker Bercow has the last laugh by resigning in this parliament, almost certainly guaranteeing the next Speaker will be a Remainer.

I doubt much of this appeared in Cummings’ play book…The problem with a highly aggressive strategy in a political system of unwritten checks and balances is that it can run out of control, stoking overwhelming hostility and surprising barriers to progress. It is a thrilling ride but not good politics if the end goal is more difficult to achieve. That is what has happened.

In reality, despite all the brave words from Johnson’s camp, it is now hard for the Tories to win a no-deal General Election. Their own internal polling confirms this. The loss of seats to the SNP in Scotland and to the Liberal Democrats in the South, exacerbated by events, means significant Labour seats in the North would have to fall to Johnson. The danger is that Brexit supporting Labour voters won’t just vote on Brexit. Economics matters, hence the recent announcements of a Tory spending splurge, but it is unlikely to be enough.

A possible humiliating and dangerous deal with Farage is an option but Johnson has set himself against this. Farage is loathed more than anyone by Cummings (does he like anybody?) and his whole strategy is designed to take him out.

Oh dear. That leaves a deal with the EU as the only viable option for a Tory victory in a likely November General Election. Watch this space for concessions on the Irish backstop…

Johnson: undone by his own lies…

Most people don’t believe him. Whether it be some of the finest minds in the Conservative Party until they were booted out yesterday, the Opposition or a majority of the electorate.

And with good reason. Johnson prevaricated on which side of the Brexit debate to support in the Referendum. Many people suspect he went for Leave because it was the best route to become Prime Minister. Then there were those untruths about NHS spending on the side of that bus…

Wind on and Johnson is Prime Minister with more dissembling on a daily basis. He doesn’t want a General Election (yes, he does); he wants a EU deal (no, he doesn’t); proroguing parliament is about preparing for the Queen’s Speech (no, it isn’t) etc, etc.

It has, until yesterday, been a carefully staged run up to a No Deal General Election, orchestrated by Dominic Cummings. Cummings, for those not in the know, was the architect of Brexit; often described as a sociopath and anarchist who may not even be a member of the Conservative Party.

But the wheels have just come off the bus, so to speak. Johnson has been rumbled by too many people and his shocking action of withdrawing the whip from leading Conservatives, several of whom were in the Government only a few weeks ago, was the last straw.

So what happens next? Parliament will probably vote later today to prevent a No Deal Brexit. Johnson will try and call a highly divisive General Election on the basis of People versus Parliament for mid-October with the aim of leaving with No Deal. The Opposition would be very wise to try and delay an election until after 31st October, aiming to stay within the EU until a General Election later in the Autumn.

Of course Johnson’s gamble may work whether a General Election is called sooner or later. He could see off Labour and the Brexit Party on the back of an electorate heartily sick of the whole Brexit impasse. But his actions are reckless and divisive.

Johnson is destroying the Conservative Party and possibly the country and our unwritten constitution in the process. He should be held to account for every one of the dissembling statements he has made and the Tories need to look into the abyss and head to the centre ground with fresh leadership. There lies the long term solution to the country’s troubles.

The problem is that we need to get through the next few weeks/months and it could all be very messy indeed.

Unprecedented times but Johnson has the initiative…for now

How could he? The whole Brexit premise was founded on ‘take back control’ and restoration of parliamentary sovereignty and what does Johnson do? He and his supplicant ministers agree to suspend parliament for fear of being forced into an about turn on a no deal Brexit. Parliamentary democracy crushed temporarily in one fell swoop. Shocking in its brutality.

Responses confirm this and we now have a country at war with itself politically. In addition to the predictable howls of anger from the opposition parties, the Speaker, John Bercow, and Lord Heseltine, the former Tory Deputy PM, call it a ‘constitutional outrage’; John Major, the former Tory PM, seeks advice on the legality of this action to prorogue parliament; Philip Hammond, the Chancellor in Theresa May’s government, calls it ‘profoundly undemocratic’ and Dominic Grieve, the former Tory Attorney General, is ‘working like wildfire’ to block the government’s move.

The lunatics are in charge of the Tory asylum and, if there was no doubt, the fantastic leader of the Scottish Tories, Ruth Davidson, is quitting. She rejuvenated the Party north of the border with a punchy, down to earth, moderate version of Toryism. She has been rewarded by being sidelined. Davidson will probably cite personal as well as political reasons for departing but we suspect the real reason. She cannot stomach the direction of her Party.

And yet Johnson may win his battle. His determination to achieve the goal of leaving the EU at any cost by 31st October is a wonder to behold. He has deliberately ensured he has no other option. It is ‘do or die’ and the power of incumbency is finally being exercised effectively. But it is a Corbynite Labour Party in particular, and a fractious, mediocre opposition in general, who are his greatest allies. Together, they are not a credible alternative government with no reassuring consensus on how to manage the current Brexit impasse.

The country just wants Brexit done and, in frustration, may temporarily shut its eyes to the longer-term consequences of a disastrous EU departure and the trashing of our unwritten constitution. With an additional sweetener of a spending splurge on police, the NHS and education, Johnson may just rush first over the finishing line in the almost certain imminent General Election. He has seized the initiative.

And yet… Johnson’s strategy is incredibly high risk and unexpected events could easily derail his plans. The departure of Ruth Davidson is the first of these and has started to change the odds on a General Election victory. It is a bitter blow. Can the Tories really win an election with resurgent Liberal Democrats taking southern seats and the post Davidson Party now to be humiliated in Scotland? We could be talking about a loss of 70 seats.

The longer-term price of Johnson’s actions is huge, not least, as I have written before, the destruction of the Conservative Party as we know it. But these issues are for another day. Let’s hope Johnson’s fortunes deteriorate and he receives a bloody nose for his cavalier actions in the coming weeks. The country will not regret it.

Two ways to block a Johnson Brexit

Back from holiday to find Johnson running rampant. A joy! He has the initiative and is making the most of it. This Tory revolutionary, fuelled by Dominic Cummings, is sprinting to the Brexit finish line knowing that departure on 31st October is what predominantly defines him. But he has been active in other areas too: more police on the beat; more money for NHS building works; more jails; more stop and search; more populism generally.

This signals an imminent General Election. Johnson can’t govern without leaving the EU, and he can’t allow Parliament and the best endeavours of the former Tory Chancellor to stop him. He also can’t govern with a majority of one and he can’t govern without his own mandate. He is openly goading the EU, the Opposition and journalists to dare him to call an election. They are falling into his trap nicely. He sees a window of opportunity now to see off the Brexit Party and to see off Labour, led by Corbyn, all before the disaster of a no-deal Brexit bites. On current showing he may well win and the Tory Party as we know it, along with the fortunes of the country, will be destroyed in the process. Hey ho. Who cares as long as Johnson and his vanity project continues.

But…but…there are two ways to block this British version of Trump:

Dump Corbyn

Labour are disastrously led. Their finest MPs languish on the backbenches, refusing to serve under him. The Party equivocates over Brexit, is mired in anti-Semitism allegations, and can’t even align its stance on a second Scottish independence referendum with the leader of the Scottish Labour Party. 45,000 members have departed in the past year. Corbyn is extreme, tired and useless. Johnson is running rings round him. But imagine if he departs to be replaced by Keir Starmer, say. All the above would be reversed. The Tories would panic as Labour fortunes are revived and all bets would be off on a snap Tory General Election victory.

The Liberal Democrats can’t just be about Brexit

The Lib Dem focus on Remain has been admirable and has helped restore their fortunes. But it is not enough. Even Johnson realises he can’t rely simply on the Brexit debate to propel him to election victory. The Lib Dems need coherent economic policies that are business and voter friendly and they need them fast. They need clearly articulated stances on the NHS, social care, law and order. They need a centrist philosophy that preserves the best of the former Tory/Lib Dem alliance; which stops them being portrayed as allies of the Left and the loony tunes, for example, coming out of the Green Party.

Of course the above is unlikely to happen. Labour has a long history of sticking with losing leaders and Corbyn has entrenched his uniquely awful, second rate Marxism, in the Party hierarchy (ex his MPs). The Lib Dems probably don’t have the time to flesh out new policies under a new leader in the face of a snap election or, if they do, may not have the appetite to fill the centre ground satisfactorily.

I hope I am proven wrong but today, with a very, very heavy heart, it seems Johnson may prevail.