It is not operation ‘Save Big Dog’, it is operation ‘Save the Tory Party’. Johnson survived yesterday’s vote but only just and the damage has been done as it was for Thatcher, Major and May before him. He should go and go quickly so the Tory Party can rebuild itself free from the drama, chaos and partisanship of his premiership although it may be too late for the next election.

Johnson’s luck has run out…

What has struck this blog about support for Johnson amongst his fellow MPs was how transactional it always was, even in Johnson’s heyday. Few actually liked or trusted him but if he could see off Labour and get Brexit done, that was enough. The depressing aspect of this view was how much it underestimated the damage Johnson could do whilst being PM and, actually, how inaccurate this analysis was in the first place.

With confidence, almost any Tory leader could have seen off Corbyn second time around, perhaps with a smaller majority, and getting Brexit done by breezily incorporating the Northern Ireland Protocol regardless of previous commitments not to and then attempting to renege on it has been a disaster.

There is also Johnson’s broader legacy. Pushing ‘partygate’ partly to one side, Johnson has never considered the consequences of his actions because it has always been about Johnson, not the Tory Party or, more importantly, the country. Jesse Norman MP, in yesterday’s letter to his constituents, withdrawing his support for Johnson’s leadership, gave his reasons brutally; a ‘culture of casual law-breaking’, ‘putting the Union gravely at risk’, keep changing the subject ‘to create political and cultural dividing lines mainly for your advantage, at a time when the economy is struggling, inflation is soaring, and growth is anaemic at best’. Finally, a Rwanda policy ‘ugly, likely to be counterproductive and of doubtful legality’.

This deeply ‘unTory’ of Prime Ministers has waged wars against the establishment, crossed lines on matters of fundamental morality and sought cultural splits, aided by some distinctly dubious No.10 advisers, that are pointlessly divisive and wholly unacceptable to moderate voters. Combine these with basic incompetence in day to day governing with no guiding philosophy and it has all become a toxic mix.

It is time for the Tory Party to reinvent itself with a new leader and, in doing so, free itself from the obsession with Brexit, that one doubts Johnson ever really believed in. It is time for a more coherent economic policy, it is time to think longer-term and more strategically and raise the basic standards of government.

One reads that any future leadership battle will be a re-run of Brexit. Why is this? If it about this one issue, then the Tory Party should step aside not just Johnson. A new Tory leader should form a government based on core Tory values discussed in earlier blogs, seeking a level of consensus which has led to it being the most successful political party in democratic history. There would be nothing wrong with a Remain voting new leader (remember Major, Cameron, May?) who knowing Brexit was done sought to build bridges with Europe, helping deal with issues such as illegal immigration for example, without picking populist fights for short-term tactical advantage.

There is a war in Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis, a broad-based threat to the Union and some real long-term, deep seated economic concerns. Many in the Tory Party could manage these challenges shrewdly and, crucially, with more integrity than the current incumbent.

Johnson’s authority has been shredded by this far worse than expected vote. It is a lame duck administration at the mercy of its backbenchers and providing an open goal for the opposition benches. It is time for a change of leader and quickly if the Tories are even to begin to recover in time for the next General Election.

The famous epithet for Johnson proved true. The ‘greased piglet’ escaped the immediate fall-out from the Sue Gray report last week and appeared to be relatively home and dry, his premiership bolstered, some would say, with a cynically timed £15 billion hand-out to deal with the impact of soaring energy prices.

Things are just not getting easier for Johnson…

And yet, this week, it doesn’t feel like that. Without raking over the gory details of the Gray report, the sheer scale of rule breaking and ‘frat-boy’ culture in No.10 continues to reverberate and that is before rumours of more parties, yet to be investigated. Added to this is Johnson’s hubris. Very few believe he is genuinely sorry for what happened on his watch and news that Johnson has watered down the ministerial code including its introductory wording, possibly in case he is found guilty of breaking it is hardly reassuring.

27 Tory MPs have now called publicly for Johnson’s resignation with this list growing over the weekend but, more importantly, there are many others who express deep discomfort about his behaviour privately. This blog is aware of a number of MPs who don’t appear anywhere near the media’s radar wanting Johnson to go, appalled by the Gray report’s findings. As they return to their constituencies this week for a Jubilee break, they are unlikely to be reassured by what they hear from activists and voters more generally. A snap opinion poll showed 59% of the electorate want Johnson to go including 27% of Tory voters. Three quarters of voters think Johnson knowingly lied to parliament. Johnson and his supporters’ defence has also hardly helped matters in emphasising the importance of ‘morale boosting’ leaving drinks as a justification for parties. Alicia Kearns, Tory MP for Rutland and Melton, summed up a common private refrain commenting about ‘the shameful lengths some will pursue to preserve this premiership’.

Then there is the general positioning of the Tory Party. There is an increasing chorus, even from sympathetic commentators, that no-one knows what it stands for under Johnson’s leadership. Certainly not competence; certainly not lower taxes and preservation of the institutions of state; certainly not abiding by international agreements and attempting to strengthen the economy by building a positive post-Brexit relationship with Europe. And even the most die-hard of Tories are uneasy about populist measures such as deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda, a state with a distinctly dubious human rights record. This blog was recently told a deal with France was certainly in the offing to help solve the immigration crisis until deteriorating relationships with the EU and France in particular, fuelled by rows over the Northern Ireland Protocol, put an end to discussions. How frustrating that politics in the UK has reached this point.

Although it has to be said that a General Election defeat is by no means a certainty, the future does not look rosy for the Tories under Johnson. An increasing proportion of voters seem to have made up their mind about the Prime Minister and not in a favourable way. Any benefit from the recent largesse to mitigate the cost-of-living crisis is likely to be short-lived and has confused core Tories who were told just weeks ago that it was ‘unTory’ to levy a windfall tax on energy companies.

Then there are two uncomfortable by-elections to navigate and an enquiry by the Commons Privileges Committee into Johnson’s statements to parliament on parties in Downing Street.

The heat on No. 10 may intensify over the Summer and not in a good way. For Johnson, the damage has probably been done. For the Tory Party as a whole, the next few months may prove that the fall-out from its leader’s character and actions has swept it up too.

Sometimes you think the Tories have it all; a Prime Minister with more than nine lives, an electorate distracted by the tragic Ukraine war, a divided opposition and a mediocre leader of the Labour Party. It is almost too much to bear for anyone unsympathetic to their cause.

All this came together in the local elections. Despite losing a bucket full of council seats, a poor showing from Labour in the North, success for the LibDems in the South being warily written off as the usual Tory protest vote, ‘beergate’ for Starmer taking attention off ‘partygate’ for Johnson, all led to a sigh of relief from the Tories and Johnson keeping his job.

And yet…. this Government is set on making things worse for itself.

A tough summer ahead for the Government…

The cost-of-living crisis is a real disaster for many economically challenged voters. Inflation to hit 10% with unavoidable energy prices skyrocketing is causing much pain. A combination of Brexit, Covid generally but particularly in China, and war in Ukraine, is causing mayhem. But the government seems strangely becalmed. Delaying further financial relief for the hard pressed, probably until the Autumn, only now dusting off a potential windfall tax on the obscenely profitable major energy companies but blocking it in parliament on Tuesday, will lead to weeks of bad headlines. Current inaction will hit the Tories’ support particularly in the North and promised minor tax cuts won’t as they say, ‘cut it’. There is plenty of material for a divided opposition and a pedestrian Starmer to work with and one senses a real chance that the Red Wall will rise again.

Then, let’s move to the South. The Tories are also set on making the Tory protest vote for LibDems last until the next General Election. The fallout from Brexit continues and an aggressive approach to unwinding the Northern Ireland Protocol this Government negotiated certainly treads on the sensitivities of moderate Tory voters. A populist stance generally from Johnson et al as they seek out culture wars to fight is also a major source of irritation. The LibDems are second to the Tories in 91 seats and up to 30 of them mainly in the South look highly winnable. If the LibDems win the Tiverton & Honiton by-election in June, admittedly, even for this run of Tory scandals, in odd circumstances, then all bets are off.

Finally, there is Johnson. Just because he has escaped from ‘partygate’ doesn’t mean he is any longer an asset. He simply cannot govern competently, displays massive hubris in private and is an accident waiting to happen. A weak Cabinet, divided backbenches and side-lined talent such as Jeremy Hunt contribute to a sense of arrogance but also drift in a Party which has been too long in government.

Who knows? The Tories still look a reasonable bet to win the next General Election. Misreading voters, both North and South, however, means the odds gradually keep getting longer.

There have been several requests from readers about how they can access this blog directly. Please go to http://www.insiderightpolitics.com and sign up. It only takes a few seconds to ensure content is delivered to you in an instant! You can also follow me on Twitter: @insiderightblog.

What to do, what to do? Tolerated in the North and fairly loathed in the South, today’s local election results are confusing for the Tories.

Johnson has torn up the anchor of ‘yesterday’s’ Tories

It is not hard to see why. Nationally, and it is national issues which mostly motivate local election voters, the Tories used to stand for a sort of morality in government, moderation in most things, conservativism with a small ‘c’ as they sought to protect the institutions of state and perhaps, most importantly for many of their core supporters, lower taxes. Of course, all these principles were applied with enough ideological flexibility to win elections.

Not anymore. A government trying to illegally prorogue parliament and regularly challenging the judiciary, a misleading Prime Minister constantly accused of being loose with the truth, bringing amorality to its heart, a party ideologically fixated by Brexit and, finally, applying record tax hikes, is not the party of old. It is a strange picture. Beyond this mix of activity being (in part) a winning combination in 2019, what do the anchorless Tories now stand for?

The answer is not a great deal outside Johnson’s ‘shopping trolley’ populism but, of course, the new Tories in the North don’t care about the Party’s past or, to be honest, its future. Many of the current Tory policies tactically appeal or at least fill the vacuum of a mediocre Labour Party which is perceived not to have delivered historically and does not convince about how it will deliver in the future. Northern/Midlands votes are on loan to today’s government. Brexit has been delivered; all politicians are amorally the same so who can bother about such things as ‘Partygate’. Just get on with the job of ‘meaningfully levelling up’ whatever that means in practice and prove you can alleviate the pressures of a soaring cost of living. The loan of votes to the Tories could be permanent if there is no alternative.

But in the South, many voters were committed to the principles of a pre-Johnson Tory Party and are pretty revolted by what they now see. Often anti-Brexit, pro lower taxes, supporters of the status quo and a certain level of probity in government they thoroughly dislike Johnson’s populist regime. Lucky for Johnson et al that Starmer doesn’t quite convince the South like Blair did in ’97, so the LibDems are key beneficiaries of such disillusionment. Congratulations to them. They have had a strong election but in the medium term the ‘post Nick Clegg’ LibDems must hold the centre-ground to build on this success and one doesn’t sense they really understand this. Today, they still seem only a temporary repository for disillusioned Tory votes but that is a subject for another blog.

And Starmer needs to up his game. He needs to stand more clearly for something. Anything. Piling up votes in the cities, notably London, modest gains elsewhere with a bounce back in Scotland is not enough. A brilliant analysis of what he needs to do has been outlined in Robert Shrimsley’s FT column this week. Required reading for any ambitious Labour supporters.

So, there you have it. Not all the local election results are in as this blog is being written but it seems a partly discredited Johnson has upended traditional support in the South for greater loyalty in the North. Net, net, overall, he has done badly but not badly enough to go. His premiership has torn up the anchor of the ‘old Tory Party’ and leaves its long-term future uncertain, not that he cares. It is a problem for his successor.

Johnson is the beneficiary of only modest gains by Starmer’s Labour Party in the North. Starmer is the beneficiary of disillusioned Tories often in the cities. The LibDems are beneficiaries of Johnson’s more widely disliked populism in the South.

On this basis, Johnson needs Starmer and Starmer needs Johnson. Perhaps LibDem leader, Ed Davey, needs them both. What a choice!

Phew! Macron has won re-election and the sigh of relief from liberal democrats generally and the EU in particular is palpable. It was a sound victory but incomplete. The revamped Marine Le Pen came too close for comfort against an incumbent centrist known for his arrogance.

A welcome victory is not enough…

The lesson? No room for complacency. Liberal democracy constantly underestimates the tsunami effect of global crises where the ripple effects grow into a destructive force which has untold consequences such as potential or actual victories for the populist far-right.

Here are three examples:

The crash of 2008 was, with the benefit of hindsight, managed disastrously for the future of democracy. Grotesque capitalism runs rampant, unchecked, courted indeed by the likes of Blair’s government. It leads to a meltdown of the financial system as we know it. Huge government bailouts follow (understandable at the time, the current system being all we have) with no business leaders held to criminal account for their greed and recklessness. Then quantitative easing which fuelled asset price inflation making the rich richer and the poor poorer. The picture is complete for the rise of right-wing populism as the less well-off pay the price of severe cuts in public expenditure to try and balance the books.

The impact of 2008 led to Brexit, Trump, Johnson et al and the rise of Le Pen who, let’s not forget, got at least 40% of the vote yesterday. The resentment of the less well off who are told what’s good for them by an established elite and then things fail to improve or deteriorate is manifest.

So, to Brexit. The detrimental ripple effects, sadly washing over the very people who voted for it, are now increasingly visible. Disrupted trade, an economy growing more slowly contributing partially to the cost-of-living crisis, is painful to see. It is not a coincidence that a weakened EU was applauded by all the wrong leaders. Which takes us to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine…

In a way, this third crisis was of the West’s own making. Obsessed with itself, underestimating the evilness of Putin, failing to adjust energy and security policies even after his actions in Syria and the invasion of Crimea, a quick chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan were all building blocks for the latest threat to Western democracy. Today, despite the brave resistance of the Ukrainians and a better initial response from the West than anticipated, the threat of Putin has never been greater. A victory in the East followed by a renewed onslaught on the rest of the country, perhaps followed by Moldova, is scary. The slow burn fall-out is huge. Success for thuggery, a new cold war, mass emigration, a questioning of the benefits of democracy, support of which is already in decline all provide an opportunity for the West to display its divisive self-interest.

So, yesterday, Macron won but this provides a short-lived respite. After all, who spotted or will spot the crisis of liberal capitalism in the solutions to the 2008 crash, the long-term consequences of Brexit for all of Europe and what may be the West’s patchy response to the long-term fallout of a Russian victory in Ukraine if it occurs?

The West and liberal democracy in general have to restate the principles for their existence and do this constantly. There has to be an understanding of the longer-term reverberations from Western inspired crises on society as a whole and act accordingly otherwise there will be more Trumps, Orbans, Marine Le Pens and, in a more diluted form, Johnsons. Some of them, as we know, get elected and that is never a good thing.

A better title for this blog would be ‘Spot the difference: ‘law makers, law breakers’ but sadly it is already being used and used everywhere.

The position of Johnson and, sadly perhaps, potentially the impressive Chancellor, is untenable. You cannot impose laws on the rest of us and be found breaking them yourselves. How can the integrity of parliament making any laws now remain intact after this if at least Johnson remains in office? There would be no moral authority to pass them and have us obey.

They were the future once…

The next few days and weeks are very dangerous for the Tories. If their leaders can be fined for breaking lockdown laws with the PM presiding over Downing Street staff sharing at least 50 fines across 12 parties, what will voters deduce? And that is before potentially further fines and the likely gruesome full report from Sue Gray into these parties is published.

Many will say Johnson is unfit for office, but they will also conclude so are the Tories as a whole if they can’t act to remove him quickly. Tainted by association will be the obvious narrative. The Opposition must be licking their lips and Starmer may actually want Johnson to stay in office in private whatever he calls for publicly. Johnson provides a ripe target. Surely, the Tories realise this?

And what nonsense it is to excuse Johnson because of the war with Ukraine. Domestic morality cannot be turned on and off for international events. Our response to supporting Ukraine is a government one not the personal fiefdom of the Prime Minister. Any successor would undoubtedly maintain our current stance. Probity in a healthy democracy contrasts sharply with Putin’s brutal, corrupt regime.

So, the scene is set for the Tories to redeem themselves by changing their leader or the scene is set for much more certain defeat, but indications suggest they will not. Whilst Johnson may well be ousted if May’s local elections prove disastrous, it may be too late by then. The damage will have been done.

Think about the narrative. The first serving Prime Minister to break the law amidst heart-breaking lockdown restrictions. A Chancellor appearing to dodge taxes. One law for us, no laws for them. A cost-of-living crisis as the backdrop. A tired Party in office for too long, stripped of its moral authority. It all feels, for those that can remember, very 1992-1997 except the Major versus Johnson comparison would not be fair on Major.

The current best leader of the Tories they never had, the former Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, put it succinctly:

‘Met confirms what we already knew: the PM introduced liberty-curtailing rules for public health reasons. This caused huge hardship for those separated from ill or dying loved ones. He then broke the rules he imposed on the country and lost the moral authority to lead. He should go.’

It is that simple and good Tories know this. Johnson’s time is up, and they should remove him now before it is too late for them all.

In the face of Putin’s onslaught on Ukraine you would have thought populism would be killed off once and for all, at least in Europe. This man had the sympathy of anti-Europeans everywhere, the far-right and where in existence the far-left in Europe generally, let alone populists more globally. Populists’ previous support for Putin and tepid condemnation of his actions now would surely be the final nail in their coffin.

But no. At the start of April, a government in Hungary sympathetic to Putin pre the invasion wins an overwhelming re-election victory. The Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, busily undermining the judiciary and independent media, who called the EU and President Zelenskyy ‘his opponents’ is triumphant.

Then we have the first-round of French Presidential elections, where the far-right Marine Le Pen is within 4% of President Macron and will face him in the second-round runoff on 24th April. She could win.

A little bit of a background to this election. President Macron, infuriatingly arrogant, chose to focus on Ukraine rather than bother campaigning in earnest on domestic issues believing he was home and dry. He forgot the elephant in the room, the cost-of-living crisis, and is rightly taking a kicking. He should still win but might not. The French electorate are angry, and Europe has a history of electing far-right leaders by accident…

For all Macron’s mistakes, how has a ‘previous racist’ who wanted to withdraw from the Euro and EU got this far? Her Party took a generous Russian loan, and she was an admirer of Putin, with Putin appearing in early election literature. To paraphrase a well know saying, you can put lipstick on an animal, but it is still the same animal…

The answer of course is complacent out of touch politicians failing to address the concerns of core voters. When voters feel, however unfairly, that you hear more debate about culture wars, for example, than solutions to the severe economic pain they are experiencing you despair…

Which takes us to the UK. The modestly populist Tory government is in trouble for exactly the same reasons centrist moderates are. It seems to have forgotten the core concerns of voters. With the PM still embroiled in ‘partygate’ and his now formerly admired Chancellor and his wife engulfed in allegations of tax dodging, it appears it is one law on Covid and tax for governing elites whilst the less well-off struggle financially. The massive hike in energy prices is crippling for many. Help so far has come in the form of loans or a relaxation of the impact of the National Insurance increase which only benefits those in work. Against this backdrop, wine in offices during lockdown as laws forced us to self-isolate and non-dom status for fabulously rich partners as taxes for everyone else rise demonstrates an increasingly political tin ear to say the least. Incredibly, bland, second-rate Labour may still lose the next election but, my, the Tories are making it difficult for themselves. They should be thankful there is no credible far-right alternative to vote for.

So, there you are. The forces of populism are alive and well and still the driving force in many democratic countries. And you have resurgent inflation too. A depressing double whammy you might say.

It is fair to assess the NHS on pre-pandemic statistics. The NHS employs approximately 1.2 million people in England alone. In 2019/20, the Department of Health and Social Care spent £148.9 billion, 10.2% of GDP. Ex direct-pandemic spending, this budget will rise to £173.8 billion in 2022/23. It is a wonderful service staffed with many great people. They rose to the challenge of the pandemic brilliantly. Its very existence defines the UK. We should be proud of it.

So, eulogies over, it is, like any other huge organisation, prone to errors and failure. Within the £148.9 billion there will be waste. Within the 1.2 million staff there will be lazy, self-interested, or incompetent staff. This is a fact of life not unfair criticism, and we should all be free to question the level of service we receive. After all, it is we who pay for it.

And we should be wary of activist medical staff and the organisations who represent them, who, in providing care when we are most vulnerable, avoid scrutiny as to their motives when campaigning. We should also be wary of the NHS being a political football too. This is in many ways inevitable, bearing in mind its importance to voters, but we should question the motives of politicians who laud the NHS without question, or pump money, or who wish to pump money, into it without the necessary accountability.

The catastrophic maternity care failures at the Shrewsbury and Telford NHS Trust are a reminder of not putting the NHS on an unquestioned pedestal. The findings are being well covered in the media but one of the stark findings was patients not being listened to, combined with a culture of bullying internally and mistakes not being investigated. Unforgiveable.

And there have been other scandals too; the Alder Hey organs scandal, the Bristol heart scandal and the Stafford Hospital scandal to name but a few. The latter was particularly worrying in that a Healthcare Commission enquiry found there was no cause for concern in the high levels of mortality at the hospital, only for a subsequent public enquiry to find there were multiple instances of neglect, incompetence and abuse of patients.

A failure to question the NHS also prohibits debate about its future. Should all healthcare be free at the point of delivery, are there ways some members of the public could be incentivised to use its services more efficiently? Why do some hospital trusts have a reputation for efficiency, even cutting waiting lists during the pandemic, whilst others do not? Not directly in the remit of the NHS but why do the services from General Practitioners vary so widely? Why is private healthcare being seen as a necessary option by growing numbers of the public? Many would argue that knowing what we know now, you would not start with an NHS as it is currently constructed. There are plenty of other efficient, effective, fair models of public healthcare in Western countries, as well as models that work less well.

You cannot repeat enough how great the NHS is in terms of its overall service delivery. But is it not perfect and we should not be intimidated into always lauding it. Ensuring it is not automatically placed on a pedestal is good for the NHS but, most importantly, vital for the patients who use it.

Patience was always thin with this charlatan of a Prime Minister. Loose with the truth, failing to understand the checks and balances of an unwritten constitution, reaching the highest of offices without knowing what to do when he got there, he has always been a high-risk office holder.

He has overstepped the mark again, one hopes for a final time, with his offensive comments at the Tories’ Spring Conference this weekend. He is quoted verbatim below:

‘I know that it’s the instinct of the people of this country, like the people of Ukraine, to choose freedom every time…When the British people voted for Brexit in such large numbers…it’s because they wanted to be free to do things differently and for this country to be able to run itself.‘

How crass this man is. Johnson seems unable to undertake his responsibilities, part of which are to heal the wounds of a divided nation and rebuild a new, constructive relationship with the EU, without careless ignorance. How could he equate the appalling war in Ukraine with Brexit? And ironies of ironies, how could he forget Ukraine is trying to join the EU, fighting for the freedom to choose to do so?

Watching the impressive Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, squirm on Sunday morning television when Johnson’s comments were put to him said it all. He was clear Ukraine and Brexit were not ‘analogous’ and the Prime Minister must have been misunderstood. He was not.

The fact that several senior Tories don’t have a problem with Johnson’s comments highlights one of Nigel Farage’s greatest achievements – turning the Conservative Party into the Brexit Party.

I am told wannabe prospective Tory parliamentary candidates cannot now progress if they display any historic Remain instincts publicly. You cannot get a job in Number 10, unless you are a Brexiteer. Good, able Tories such as Dominic Grieve, David Gauke and Rory Stewart are no longer members of a Party led by Johnson. He and his Tory followers seem to forget every recent Tory Prime Minister before Johnson voted Remain.

And turning back to Johnson’s broader political career, it is littered with irresponsibility. The recently released Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe almost certainly owes part of her extended stay in an Iranian jail to Johnson’s earlier careless gaffes when Foreign Secretary. This current Prime Minister is the subject of a police investigation into breaking lockdown rules. He accepted contributions to a £200,000 renovation of his Downing Street flat, claiming he didn’t know of their source. He has brushed up closely to Russians with links to Putin and oligarchs generally in his desire to shovel money into the Tory Party’s coffers. He has repeatedly been caught misleading audiences on issues too numerous to mention.

The Tory Party has been one of the most successful political parties in history, to be fair also recently under Johnson. It has been so due to a core conservative, small ‘c’ philosophy which has been applied pragmatically to current events. Pragmatism has been lost on the issue of Europe and perhaps gone too far in accepting the lack of integrity of its current leader.

If Johnson’s overstepping of the mark with his Brexit/Ukraine comments was an attempt to distract from a looming cost of living crisis, it has failed. It only focuses attention on his personal failings. Public life, indeed the Conservative Party, would surely benefit if he was shown the door by either his parliamentary colleagues, voters, or both.

The news of casualties in Ukraine just gets worse. The madness of Putin gets madder. As this disaster unfolds it is almost impossible to find any grounds for optimism but there are ripple effects which will have longstanding consequences.

First, and of most immediate significance is the economic response of the West to this war. Expecting a wave of self-interested half measures, Putin has been entirely wrongfooted by the West rediscovering its sense of purpose. Serious coordinated sanctions which will decimate Russia’s economy have been implemented. The West has found its moral compass, even at the expense of potential problems such sanctions will cause at home. The test will be when the consequences for the public in Europe and North America mount, but one senses patience in the face of our very way of life being threatened by Putin’s actions.

Second, and running on from this, recalibrated defence and energy policies. Germany pledging to step up to the plate on defence spending, the UK, US and most significantly, the EU, pledging to wean themselves off Russian energy supplies, will remove Russia’s stranglehold over the West for a generation.

Third, the defenestration of the populist Right. How does Trump’s praise of Putin look now? Can you imagine if he was still President? How do apologists of Putin look in Europe? Begone Salvini in Italy, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemour in France, to name but a few. One almost certain outcome is a victory for Macron in April’s French presidential election. The war has also driven Poland back into the heart of Europe and even Orban in Hungary is making the right noises.

Fourth, China. The last blog suggested war in Ukraine could be a catalyst/opportunity for China to join the heart of the international community. It caused vigorous debate! It was only a suggestion, not an expectation. But, regardless, the West’s economic response must be unsettling for Xi and should make him think twice about his shameless tactical embrace of Russia and any moves on Taiwan.

Fifth, the benefits of a free press. This war has been fought in public and endless Western news outlets have distinguished themselves hugely with their reports, busting apart sometimes ludicrous propaganda from Russia and its allies. In the end, this will have a key impact on ending this war and acts as a reminder to the previously complacent West never to take such news services for granted. It also means the sources of information in social media are now firmly in the public eye with much more scrutiny likely to uncover false information.

Sixth, and closer to home, this war shines a light on corrupt money infecting London, the property market generally and the financing of political parties (really the Conservative Party). Even Conservative commentators are warming to the idea of greater state funding of our political system to create a more level, fairer playing field and remove the temptations of donations from potentially corrupt businessmen and/or unfair access to the honours list…That would be a very good thing.

What Ukrainians are going through is unimaginable and much more can still be done to ease their suffering. Of course, only Putin can end this war but his unintended legacy, for he will not survive his psychopathic act, has been to strengthen the West by ending its complacency and giving it purpose. Very sadly, it has come too late for Ukraine today, but possibly not for future actions by other dictators and their allies.