We all know it is probably too late. The increasingly impressive Rishi Sunak has taken over a tired, divided Party and tried to give it some shape. Competent economic management, stronger international relations, a better deal with the EU over Northern Ireland are all laudable. But after 14 years many of the initiatives are simply about undoing the errors of previous Tory administrations. Against this backdrop, the desire for change, albeit with relatively tepid support for Starmer and his Labour Party, is too great.

A chance to demonstrate a break with the past…

One other factor drives down support for the Tories; a palpable sense of corruption. Dodgy peerages, dodgy donations, dodgy appointments, some unsavoury people hanging around the Party’s fringe. There is a sense of entitlement where one rule applies to ‘little people’ and another for those in power. This perhaps drives a belief that the Tories’ time is up more than anything. It is certainly not solely economics or the state of public services because few voters currently think Labour would be much better.

So it is really important that Sunak demonstrates new integrity in his government and a break with the past and that is why the last few days have been so helpful.

Johnson has gone and, make no mistake, will not return either this side or the other of a general election. Seen off by the Privileges Committee (note, a majority of Tory Party MPs overseeing its deliberations) and his resignation honours list, he has gone blustering into the night. He represents a shameful episode in the country’s governance and the Tory Party’s judgement of appointing him in the first place. Undoubtedly talented, he never had the moral compass to be successful as PM.

Sunak’s row with him has gone public and that allows Sunak to demonstrate a fresh start. It allows him to restore the principles of good government and that will provide the opportunity for the electorate to take a second look if the Tory Party can show discipline under his leadership.

After the past week, Sunak only has to sort out high inflation, negligible economic growth, rising debt, rising NHS waiting lists and a flotilla of small boats, and he is in with a chance…

The most dramatic new policy from a Labour government will not be an annual £28 billion invested in the green economy. Neither will it be greater workers’ rights.

Whatever Keir Starmer says in advance of the general election, it will be the gradual, stealthy embrace of the EU as though we never left. The political commentator Ian Dunt said re-joining the EU is a believable ten year project. I agree. But little will be said about this direction of travel in the early years of a first Labour administration.

A stealthy embrace of the EU will take place under Labour…

There is no point in holding a second referendum in the foreseeable future. We are denying it to the Scots and certainly don’t want to waste energy and political capital by winding up the angry sub-40% who still think Brexit was a good idea. Neither does joining the single market work today if it means undermining the one salient feature of Brexit, however pointless in practice, that we have control of our borders.

No. Driven by Russia’s aggression, we will align our military forces more closely with the EU as it, in turn, starts to create a single defence capability. We will participate fully in the Horizon research project, fully align financial services regulation, negotiate visa-free access to Europe (visas are due for UK citizens from 2024), and even negotiate pet passports. There will be no bonfire of EU laws as promised and already partly reneged on by the Conservatives.

None of this will be an obstacle to positive post Brexit initiatives of greater efforts in training our home-grown workforce, and as part of this, it is common sense that migrant workers can’t be employed for 20% less than the usual rate for the job. This is already Labour Party policy.

A good Labour government can have its cake and eat it. Domestic reforms to improve national productivity whilst aligning ourselves more closely with the EU again. And if this is successful, the possibility of re-joining the EU on a ten year view.

Quietly, slowly, patiently, the greatest self-inflicted damage to the UK’s political and economic standing will be reversed.

Michel Barnier interviewed on ITV this week said the UK can return to the EU anytime. The Conservative Party, metaphorically turning in its grave, will be a bystander in this process when it eventually happens.

The mood music just isn’t getting any better for the Tories. As Sunak tries to look to the future under his improved leadership, he is dragged back into the past by the Covid enquiry.

Under the formidable chair, Baroness Hallet, the enquiry has asked for all Boris Johnson’s fully unredacted WhatsApp messages and diary entries. The government is resisting and may go to the courts to prevent having to hand them over. They have until 4 pm today.

Standards need to rise in how government is conducted

Johnson’s disastrous reign still overshadows the Tories. One also suspects there is some really embarrassing material in his texts, perhaps involving a bunch of today’s ministers, including even the PM himself. Oh dear. If ministers, incredibly, end up legally challenging the government’s own Covid enquiry, it will be another nail in its coffin.

It takes me back to Peter Hennessy’s fine writings on constitutional government. He documented admiringly how Thatcher ran her administration by the book, even the Falklands war, through committees with civil servants present and minutes taken.

The rot started with Blair and his ‘sofa government’ and has continued in particular via Cameron and Johnson. Decisions are taken in secret by a small cabal of ministers and advisers with no accountability. One understands there are more social media channels today and Covid set severe limits on gatherings, but this is no excuse for government by text.

The lack of a written constitution means that the erosion of proper procedures in policy making has continued unchecked and undocumented.

Time to put an end to it and get back to fully, ‘by the book’, publicly accountable government. Perhaps Starmer, as a former Director of Public Prosecutions, can make a start.

In the meantime, the heavy anchor of Johnson and his florid informal musings (never put in writing what you don’t want to see in public!) will continue to drag Sunak’s government under water.

Only today’s Tory Party could consider Rishi Sunak ‘left-wing’. Apparently, soft on immigration, high taxes, and culture wars, this Thatcherite, pro-Brexit PM is seen as betraying the Tory cause by many right-wing grass-roots members and some former and current cabinet ministers.

Ludicrous.

The Tory Party has historically been so successful because it was always ideologically flexible. It supported established institutions and positioned itself as mildly socially conservative but not always (Cameron/gay marriage). In aiming for a smaller state and lower taxes, it was consistent in putting lowering deficits first, knowing nothing should get in the way of a well-run, slightly redistributive economy when finances allowed. Conservatives were always about ‘the economy stupid’.

Well, not now. Brexit, a failed attempt at immigration controls damaging growth in the process, a brief period of kamikaze tax cuts adding to a soaring deficit, pushing up already rising interest rates, have together been economically ruinous.  Add a good dose of confected culture wars and attacks on the judiciary and sovereignty of Parliament and Tory right-wing recklessness is complete. Thatcher would never have stood for it, cue Sunak.

Sunak has come in to restore economic competence and competence more generally, getting some of that famed ideological flexibility back into the Tory system.

It will last only until the next General Election.

The post-election positioning is beginning now. The formation of the Conservative Democratic Organisation, which held its first conference recently demanding more say for members (code for bring back Johnson), will probably be influential post an election. And more member involvement nearly always signals a further drift to the right. Then, we have had manifestos from leading Tories outlined at a right-wing, National Conservatism conference last week, not least by the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman. She is clearly positioning herself as the next leader, blatantly criticising cabinet colleagues on immigration. She has no sense of loyalty or public service, and we await her second ‘on a matter of principle’ resignation if her speeding fine doesn’t get her first…

Last, but not least, there is some evidence according to Anthony Seldon’s book on Johnson, (a highly readable insight into the chaos of Johnson’s premiership) that selection to join the parliamentary candidates’ list has favoured pro-Brexit, culture war warriors. That would drive the next diminished MP in-take further to the right if this was the case.

The Party’s Right is therefore flexing its muscles and one nation Tories remain on the side-lines. As ever, they are too soft, too unfocused. They simply hand-wring and hope for the best.

All the indications are that after a heavy election defeat, Sunak will step down, and the Tories will march rightwards. If this happens, the next 10 years spell disaster for the Conservative Party but also excitement for those willing to fill an increasingly vacated centre-right ground in British politics.

The analysis has been done, and there are no silver linings in very dark clouds for the Conservative Party, except perhaps for the Coronation dominating headlines. A loss of over 1000 council seats, surpassing even the gloomiest of expectations, was bad enough, but it was the distribution of votes that should really set alarm bells ringing.

No silver linings for the Conservative Party…

There is now a firm anti-Tory alliance in place, ruthlessly ejecting Tories wherever they reside. The Liberal Democrats in the South, Labour in the North, with the break between the Brexit voting public and the Conservative Party clearly evident. Add a deeply unhelpful sprinkling of Green Party successes, and the rout was complete. For those saying there is a route back from this for the Tories, they should remember these results exclude London and Scotland where Labour is resurgent.

So, why, under the highly competent Sunak, have the Conservatives not steadied their ship electorally? Quite simply, it is down to two factors. The Tories’ often lamentable record in office and increasing noise from their right-wing.

Excessive austerity contributing to a Brexit that has failed to deliver is part of the backdrop. Add the leadership disarray courtesy of Johnson and Truss, then record taxes, failing public services, and the seeming abandonment of tangible levelling up initiatives, and the sorry picture is complete. The refrain that we now live in a country where nothing works is lethal for the Tories’ prospects.

And yet, their response? Many in the Conservative Party think a lurch to the Right is required. A new organisation, the Conservative Democratic Organisation, led by the ludicrous, failed ex UKIP and Tory MEP, David Campbell Bannerman, calls for more Party democracy, the ousting of Sunak and the re-coronation of Johnson. An international conference in London involving right-wing politicians, including Suella Braverman, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Lord David Frost, spells further trouble. As if, in the face of failing public services, a call today for a low tax economy (a laudable aim perhaps in the long-term) will win over red-wall voters? And then, in a bid to fan cultural war flames, you have the likes of Tory Vice-Chair, Lee Anderson, whose anti-woke utterings are guaranteed to drive moderate Tory voters into the arms of the LibDems.

As the wise, moderate, ex-Tory MP David Gauke has commentated, a hard right, low-tax, socially conservative party makes sense in a system of proportional representation, probably guaranteed a fairly consistent 25-30% share of votes. But not in a first past-the-post system.

The Tories seem lost and forces are building to remove them at any cost. In Opposition, the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place and the runes do not look good. Meanwhile, Sunak has to keep the show on the road. All Tories, right, left and centre, who once remembered the importance of loyalty, should give him their backing if, for nothing else, to minimise the scale of defeat in 2024.

At one level, it is incredibly frustrating. How does the world’s only superpower with a population of 330 million present a choice of Biden versus Trump for a second time? They will have a combined age of 158 at the next presidential election.

Of course, events may intervene to change the players. Biden will be 81 and has a less than robust medical history. He looks and sounds frail although this may be deceptive. His stutter accounts for a good amount of his verbal wobbles. As for Trump, he has many potential legal battles ahead, all more serious than the Stormy Daniels one. My bet is that he also has more health issues than publicly acknowledged.

Still, as Biden declares his 2024 candidacy, and Trump currently leads the Republican nominee pack (but don’t count out DeSantis…), it looks like a re-run battle for the soul of America.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President…

What is at stake?

• Ukraine. Biden will support their war with Russia to the end. Trump, Putin’s friend, will not. Neither will Trump defend NATO’s role
• Democracy. Republicans have introduced over 150 restrictive election bills at State level and another 27 election interference bills increasing partisan involvement in electoral outcomes. A Trump victory would boost attempts to limit mail-in voting, strengthen voter ID laws at the expense of minorities, shorten early voting and eliminate same-day voter registration. One only has to look at the Fox News versus Dominion lawsuit, which led to Fox paying $800 million in damages for knowingly misleading viewers on the integrity of the last presidential vote, to understand the fragility of democracy in the US
• Broader civil rights. Biden has introduced laws to protect same-sex marriage in the face of an increasingly right-wing, politicised Supreme Court. He has introduced laws to protect access to reproductive health care and also issued an Executive Order to protect access to abortion care after the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade. All these initiatives are highly vulnerable to a Trump victory
• Climate. Biden introduced the largest ever federal climate plan leading to a huge growth in green technology innovation. Over 1 billion tons of greenhouse gases will consequently be removed from the atmosphere by 2030 setting the globe well on its way to reaching emissions targets. This would almost certainly be reversed under Trump

The list goes on. Nobody would say Biden is remotely perfect and one could argue his solutions to many problems too often involve expanding the State at federal level. But, my, the alternative would be a disaster.

If it has to be Biden as the Democrat’s nominee, it has to be Biden for President. Never Trump or any of his extremist cohorts.

Sat recuperating from a recent leg injury, dreading a quiet news day on a Friday despite much daytime snoozing, and up pops the Deputy PM’s resignation.

Oh dear. Sunak has made a reasonable fist of being PM so far, even closing the polling gap with Labour. And now this.

The problem for Sunak, of course, is that he has to take responsibility for all the Tories’ 13 years in power, and he can’t escape his party’s past, particularly when it incoporates five often chaotic leaders.

Sunak has the makings of being a highly competent PM long-term, but got the job too late. Rebuilding international relations, a new NI protocol with the EU, and mostly sensible economic policies are all pluses. But set against these are clumsily managed public sector strikes with deep rooted causes, an obsession with ‘small boats’ driven by the Right, an NHS/social care crisis, depleted local government services, and the behaviour of several of his colleagues generally.

Despite a commitment to higher standards in public life, it is this last issue that is causing crucial damage right now. Raab is his third cabinet departure, and Sunak is starting to look careless. At the very least, the trade-offs Sunak made to become PM seem more and more costly, and he still has the grim Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, at his side.

The baggage is heavy. Can we honestly say we feel better after over a decade of Tory rule? No, and that is what will do for the government in the end.

This blog is increasingly critical of Labour. Few believe a Labour government will be much better, not knowing what they stand for. What are their guiding principles? What are their core policies? Some of their potential ministers are already starting to grate.

But with today’s events, it again matters less and less. Sunak can’t outrun a tsunami. It is time for a change, and voters know it.

Day 8, and I am still in Lancaster Hospital, having had my tendons sown back on to my left knee. A simple story of my lovely (less lovely now!), boistrous black labrador pulling me over on a steep slope.

I always felt avoiding the NHS at a bank holiday and in advance of a doctors’ strike was a sensible thing to do. It seems you don’t always have a choice…

So, what are my observations of the NHS at first-hand?

First, the staff here are lovely. Three cheers for Ward 37! They really care, and whilst I am sure some NHS staff do just the basics, not here.

Second, morale seems low with a disappointing level of confidence in the management of the Trust or NHS generally. Poor communication, endless management initiatives, and a lack of joined up practices or budgets undermine their capabilities to do the best job.

A small example of poor organisation. I got admitted Good Friday night, waiting only 3 hours for a bed. Nil by mouth for an operation that never happened, despite available surgeons, as no specialist radiographers on call over the Easter break. A second nil by mouth and still no relevant radiographers until Tuesday. Then, a third, and I was finally operated on on Thursday.

During the process, I asked whether there were radiographers elsewhere on call but out of the question. Budgets and records are ring-fenced by Trust, so there was no flexibility there. I asked to go home and come back to avoid bed blocking, but if I did I would leave the ‘system’ and be admitted as an out-patient in 2-3 weeks time despite the severity of the injury. The matron and surgeon strongly advised me to stay put.

To make things more difficult, when I am discharged tomorrow and slowly make my way to London, I have to take my records in paper form with me to UCL’s A and E department to get the required crucial follow up treatment. There are no transferable online records here.

My general ward is full of the elderly, many with dementia. It is sad to see, and the pressures on this basis are only going to rise. Lack of care at home or in homes is a clear factor. It is piling on the pressure. Many lament the demise of halfway house cottage hospitals, which were so beneficial for helping the elderly recuperate, and I simply do not understand why social care, not small boats, is the government’s top priority.

All against the backdrop of A and Es filling up partly due to lack of GP access.

I have seen at least some of the best (people) but often the worst (structural) of the NHS on view. Money, of course, is a factor, but so is a bloated NHS managerial class, siloed organisation and politicians who seem unable to challenge and prioritise a crucial yet failing public service.

As America’s 45th president appeared in a New York court for allegedly making illegal hush money payments to a porn star and others, breaking campaign finance laws in the process, it is worth remembering that in a functioning democracy, nobody is above the law, even Donald Trump.

Time for Trump to be held to account…

At a lunch party in the US last week, I suggested America feels like the 4th century AD Roman Empire… in decline. Nobody disagreed, even a couple of Republicans. Of course, it will remain the world’s premier superpower for decades, possibly centuries due to its military capabilities, but the increasingly polarised political discourse is fracturing society and undermining the ability of the US to govern itself.

The Democrats are not without blame, with splits between moderates and the hard left, but responsibility for this decline relies firmly with Trump and the supine GOP. Shame on them.

Trump is a known liar, without morals who lauds autocrats around the world, including Putin. How the GOP allowed him to take over their party, with his conspiracy theories, extreme language, contempt for the law, and refusal to accept his election defeat, is one for the history books.

But the consequences are stark. Increasingly extreme political debate is becoming a democratic threat.

Evidence of this is everywhere in opinion polls. A third of Americans do not believe Biden won his presidential election legitimately. One in five think political violence is justified on occasion. A third of voters would prefer autocratic rule over a weak, democratically elected leader. Two-thirds think US democracy is in crisis. Democracy is overwhelmingly the preferred form of governing but the headwinds opposing it are strong.

So, the solution? The GOP and MAGA crowd need to unite with the Democrats to remind the public it was democracy that made America great in the first place. Campaign finance laws need to be revised to cap election spending. State laws that undermine election officials and dissuade minority voters from participating in elections need to be withdrawn. Term limits need to apply to an increasingly politicised Supreme Court.

Umm… a very tall order. The crisis in American democracy is not going away anytime soon…

Happy Easter!

All of us agree, I am sure, that illegal immigration should be sharply curbed. The cruel trafficking of often vulnerable people to the UK’s shores via small boats and lorries is heart-breaking. It is a scourge of modern life and an issue for all of Europe.

Immigration may not be the vote winner Tories think it is…

However, even if one doubts the legitimacy of some asylum seekers, it is another issue to use a tone of language and introduce policies that, even tangentially, encourage racism. Our lovely Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, is certainly guilty of that. Using phrases over recent months such as ‘an invasion on our southern coast’ and ‘waves of illegal immigrants breaching our border’ supported by a ludicrous figure of 100 million is inflammatory to say the least.

The picture of Braverman laughing in Rwanda is also chilling. Exporting illegal immigrants to a country with a dubious human rights record is an ugly policy, and no government minister should be pleased with it, even if they think such measures are a necessity. Should the courts allow such flights, the policy hardly seems to make much of a difference either, with a current capacity of 200.

Housing illegal immigrants in barracks and on boats is another example of dog whistle politics, attempting to appease Red Wall voters and the hard right generally, two groups that, in reality, have little in common. Add to that, nimbies who live near barracks talking of their fears of potentially dangerous people being housed nearby and it all feels deeply uncomfortable for a humane country. Government rhetoric is partly the reason for it.

Under Sunak, we are now finally pursuing a policy of cooperation with the EU which, of course, particularly in relation to France, is the only solution to sorting illegal immigration in the longer-term. Theresa May knew this years ago.

In the meantime, if the Tories keep pursuing a ‘nasty party’ approach to the issue of ‘small boats’, it may well rebound on them. Labour’s opinion poll lead is still very wide, and they must be clear favourites at the next election. Even voters who dislike immigration generally might find it within themselves to swerve away from the Tories’ approach and focus on other issues. If, for nothing else, to protect their conscience.