2018 will not be a vintage year politically. In particular, here in the UK, it will be a depressing slog through Brexit with badly needed political initiatives in other areas such as social care making little progress. The reshuffle won’t change much in the shorter term (more on that another time) and Theresa May’s imminent pronouncements on a series of domestic policies are awaited with less than feverish excitement…

Elsewhere, intractable problems accompanied by erratic political leaders, will hardly inspire confidence although it is a golden time for satirists. Two positives, however, stand out: reasonable global economic growth subject to a geo-political crisis and Macron.

So in more detail, what can we expect? Emboldened by the predictive failures of the ‘experienced commentariat’ here are a few ‘insiderightpolitical’ predictions for this year:

• There will be no General Election in the UK. Theresa May’s sheer perseverance and fears of a Labour victory will keep Tory MPs onside.  In fact Theresa May herself will go on well into 2019 and perhaps beyond, buoyed by a lack of alternatives and the determination to resurrect her reputation from the calamitous 2017 election.
• However, the Tories electoral position will gradually deteriorate unless there is a radical over-haul of its organisation and policy offering. A lamentable political membership base with unpopularity building in areas such as the NHS will be corrosive and take time to fix. Local election results will be poor and London a disaster. Only the extremism of Corbyn and his allies combined with their sheer incompetence on Brexit alone currently stand between the Tories and the political Armageddon many people think they deserve.
• The Liberal Democrats will go nowhere. With such definitive issues to tackle this is no time for wishy-washy hand wringing even if ultimate solutions have to come from the centre ground of politics at some stage.
• Elsewhere, despite the chaos reigning in the White House, the midterm elections whilst poor will be better than expected for the McDonald’s munching Trump. The Democrats, badly led, and offering no clear alternative, will not make the progress hoped for. There is still a real chance of an 8 year Trump presidency. Scary…
• Merkel will go. Her authority is starting to drain away as coalition talks fail to make progress. She has simply made too many major mistakes (Brexit, asylum seekers) and her competent but bland consensus style of politics will not save her.
• Macron will shine. Despite missteps through hubris, he is gradually making progress. Confident in what he wants to achieve, he will be an increasingly influential leader in Europe and beyond – a model for the next generation of politicians in western democracies.
• The global economy will continue to prosper, increasingly divorced from the actions of clowning political leaders. Business matters more and only a war in Korea or a significant Middle East crisis will change this outlook.
• Lastly, watch Iran. By far the most interesting country in terms of potential if demonstrations lead to any real, positive change.

So there you go.  If much of it feels same old, same old…then take comfort from the fact these predictions may well be wrong. For the last time in 2018: Happy New Year…

Since 1947 the City of Oslo has sent us a Christmas tree in gratitude for our support in the Second World War. We really appreciate the gesture….but…the tree tends to be tall and thin, decorated in energy efficient white lights. It sits in Trafalgar Square, worthy but dull. It is time for a change!

We need more glamour in London. Returning from outsized New York, eyes still dazzled by the Rockefeller Centre Christmas Tree (capitals essential!), it is time for more colour, brighter lights and, yes, if you insist, a bit more Camp at Christmas. Things are getting better but it would be great to see huge decorations adorning London’s walls, a Trafalgar Square tree which is bushy, humorous in the sheer audacity of its decorations with lights everywhere. Who cares, let’s go over the top!

And whilst we are at it, why can’t we have a Garden Bridge in London too, paid for by private funds. It would be a ‘statement’ (and we need a few of those in a post-Brexit world…), competing with the undoubted success of the High Line in New York. Oh, and glass pyramids a la the Louvre, and an amazing new concert hall showcasing radical architectural ideas.

Austerity Britain is making us all weary. London is a dynamic, exciting city. Let’s take a few risks, ditch the moaning Minnies and make it a bit more fabulous too. Manchester, Birmingham etc. you can follow or take the lead. If Britain is to be a Little Island, we should be as lit up as possible.

Merry Christmas!

 

There are a lot of gloomy people out there. Brexit and Trump have ‘triumphed’, the far right and far left in western democratic societies have all gathered more support than feels comfortable (Corbyn, Sanders, Le Pen, the AfD to name but a few) and ‘elites’, whatever this title means, are despised. Nationalism is on the increase and King Canute-like, key economies are trying to turn their back on globalism. The world feels a much less safe place nowadays.

Why are we at this point? For decades in western democracies politicians have over-promised and under-delivered, telling the electorate what they want to hear and racking up deficits in their attempt to deliver. At the same time, post the 2008 crash, the rich seem to have got richer with cuts disproportionately impacting the less well-off. The long term benefits of globalisation for many have been out-weighed by shorter term pain.

What is the solution? Well, first, things are only going to get worse before they get better. The anger with the establishment is not going to abate soon. Trump is still absurdly popular amongst his core base (don’t be reassured by the Democrat win in Alabama); Brexit is happening (regardless of MPs now having the final say on terms) and deficits mean there will be no helping the relatively less well off soon. Corbyn looks alarmingly electable in the UK whilst extremists in continental Europe continue to prosper. And that is before all these populists with their manifest incompetence fail to deliver for their supporters.

And financial markets seem oblivious to any sort of geopolitical risk. A journalist from The Economist speaking recently on rising tensions, reached the conclusion that growing disillusionment with the current order is simply not reflected in the level of markets or price of real assets. If threats cause the bull market in bonds and equities to end sharply, there will be even less money around to oil the wheels of consensual capitalist democracies, further fuelling extremism.

Now back to the solution…What is required is a new political class of higher calibre politicians who tells it to the electorate as it is. Firm on budgets and over-blown promises, socially liberal and willing to take the risk of walking away from existing Party structures, they must act and talk long term, ignoring the 24 hour media cycle. They must measure their success by creating a new economic consensus not by how long they remain at the top.

Remind you of anyone? Well let’s start with Macron in France. Then let’s look to the future; individuals forming a break away Labour Party, a moderate Conservative Party leader not obsessed with Europe or a full political party realignment in the UK? A rejuvenated Democratic Party in the US? That’s just the start.

Sounds optimistic? I hope so. It is the only option.

America is our closest ally. The world has benefited from American global leadership and so have we. Corbyn and his allies don’t get this. The Government and most of the British public do.

And yet, America is currently led by an appalling president. Let’s just run through a few of his actions in the past week whilst I have been here:

• he has resurrected claims that Barack Obama is not a US citizen
• he claims that the tape recording of his comments about assaulting women which he apologised for during his campaign may now be fake news
• he has retweeted racist, far-right videos to the horror of the UK and then had a public spat with the Prime Minister
• he is driving forward tax reform, now just passed by the Senate, which rewards the rich and further undermines Obamacare (it also allows for drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge…)

American politics is in turmoil reflecting a divided country – one half of the country appearing to live in a parallel universe to the other.

And the Democrats are not without blame in all this. They have ignored many voters to their cost believing an alliance of minorities and support for, seemingly at times, extreme political correctness is enough. Their hypocrisy over a recent torrent of sexual abuse claims where they have condemned Republicans but have been found to ignore dubious behaviour within their own ranks has only compounded divisions. They lack fresh leadership and a new narrative which allows Trump to get away with far more than he should.

But the real issue is Trump. He corrodes public discourse, taking a scorched earth approach to political debate. He is petty, vindictive, divisive and a blatant liar. Factual reporting is undermined by reckless accusations of ‘fake news’. It will take much longer than the tenure of Trump’s presidency to heal the wounds.

On foreign policy, he is also  dreadful. His withdrawal of America from the international stage is leaving a vacuum nicely filled by a far from altruistic China. Let alone giving carte blanche to his corrupt friend Putin. It is not so much about ‘Making America Great Again’ as ‘Making America Small’. The long term damage is incalculable.

As America’s closest ally, it is time to cut ties with Trump, withdrawing an invitation to visit the UK. Such is public opposition to him, the trip would be a disaster anyway. A famously inward looking country needs to know what impact their president is making internationally and in particular to a friend like Britain.

The Republican leadership don’t like him, nor do much of the American public. We will get our post Brexit trade deal without him. We should embrace the rest of America as we always do, positively, but without Trump. In doing so, we would be doing ourselves and, equally importantly, America a favour.

It is dangerous writing about budgets so soon after delivery since they can unravel with alarming speed but a US trip beckons so there is no alternative…

This was the Conservatives at their fiscal best. Cautious, caring, with some targeted extra expenditure, and sensible reforms to the tax system. All without losing sight of the grinding need to bring down the deficit. In contrast, Corbyn’s financially illiterate, ranting response demonstrates why the Opposition is so manifestly incapable of taking responsibility for the economic stewardship of the country.

Most notable budget positives were a continuing above-inflation rise in the national living wage, improvements in the delivery of Universal Credit, more investment in infrastructure and technological initiatives and modest further investment in the NHS. On housing, there was an impressive £44bn increase in loans and capital spending to increase the supply of housing by 300k units per year by the mid-2020s combined with the abolition of Stamp Duty for first-time buyers on properties under £300k. More complex reforms to land bank management and careful relaxing of pay levels for the retention and recruitment of key workers such as nurses, are rightly put to an enquiry. The list could go on. All sensible stuff and seemingly unlikely to unravel.

The economic record of the Conservative Government (sometimes part coalition) has largely been outstanding since 2010. Despite some missteps, a falling deficit, 3 million plus more jobs and the relative improvement of those most poorly paid have been excellent achievements. Perhaps underpinning the benefits of EU membership…

Austerity can and should now be gradually loosened, particularly where it is cutting into the bone of local services and this is starting to happen.

And yet, sadly, this was no radical budget and is unlikely to alter the current political narrative. The Chancellor today provided something for a lot of people but not enough for any one group and few initiatives will impact immediately. Headlines are partly dominated by the forecast of economic growth slowing sharply, restricting future room for manoeuvre. Brexit has apparently cost £700m so far with another £3 billion to come, only re-emphasising the scale of damage this decision, guided by so many Conservatives, is causing.

In the last piece of commentary a game changing budget was asked for. This was not it. The next rescue bid for this Government moves to EU negotiations. A more generous exit settlement combined with talks starting on a trade deal may provide the lifeboat needed. We shall see.

 

Caution isn’t working. Since the disastrous election, Theresa May has been walking on egg shells. Until recent scandals, the Cabinet remained largely unchanged despite grim behaviour from some members. Brexit negotiations have stalled despite a few U-turns here and there, and domestic policy has offered no refuge. Any initiatives at home have been tepid at best and gaffes dominate the political agenda. The government has seemed exhausted from the start, overwhelmed by the intricacies of leaving Europe.

The consequence? Theresa May is weaker than ever and Labour is stronger than ever; Brexit is heading over a cliff fuelled by internal Tory divisions. We await the skirmishes over the EU Withdrawal Bill with trepidation but Parliament, begrudgingly, has at least been given a vote on the final Brexit deal.

The Prime Minister has also lost control of events closer to home. Cabinet changes have been thrust upon her with replacements involving timid, minor reshuffles. She leads a divided party and a poor Cabinet with the media in full pursuit. What price Brexit for the Conservative Party now?

The consensus amongst those at the heart of government was that there would be no challenge to May or a consequent General Election for fear of something worse. That consensus is breaking down. Theresa May looks damaged and is almost certain to go sooner rather than later unless…unless…

Like a dying patient requiring resuscitation, she needs shock treatment. And that shock has to be self-delivered and involve the following: first, there must be a wholesale cabinet re-shuffle with those not up to the job (or disloyal) departing. There is no longer any room for the Boris Johnsons of this world. It is time to move a new generation of MPs into ministerial positions generally and the Cabinet in particular. Second, EU negotiations need to be kick started with the offer of a comprehensive financial settlement combined with full confirmation of the rights of EU citizens in the UK. Then a broad transition deal needs to be negotiated. Third, a sensational budget is required. This feels close to being the last throw of the dice. How about ‘war time powers’ to seize land for house building purposes and cutting the deficit through radical changes to some expensive pension tax reliefs (first mooted by George Osborne) which simply benefit the better off?

It is time Theresa May faced down the critics in her party and the media with bold actions. If it hastens her departure, then she can go with her head held high. Anything is better than death by a thousand humiliations and she just might rescue her government in the process.

 

Let’s be absolutely clear. A body responsible for passing laws which tells the rest of us how we should behave should be beyond reproach. A culture of sexism and boorish behaviour generally, often fuelled by too much alcohol, is at odds with this. That such an environment exists is beyond doubt, particularly when it is on show each week at Prime Minister’s Question Time.

The strange nature of a parliamentary career with unsociable hours, proximity to power, ruthless ambition combined with often humiliating disappointments, all lived in the public eye, is fertile ground for such a culture to flourish. But this is no excuse. It is vastly out of date. No wonder parliament is losing our respect with the consequence that not enough good people of both sexes are entering politics.

But the caveat must be that accusations need to be carefully verified. Some allegations are more serious than others and it is important individuals are not deemed guilty from the start. Witch hunts can have their own unfortunate consequences.

The solution to all this is to stop the abuse of power at source and clean up procedures so that unacceptable behaviours can be reported confidentially and without repercussions to an independent body in parliament. Business has been doing this for years. Amateur hour for politics is over. MPs need HR guidance and parties, of course, need their own governance to be enhanced. And ending subsidised alcohol in parliament wouldn’t go amiss either.

Theresa May started the luckiest of politicians and now must be the unluckiest. In tracking what may bring her government down, the first reason might have been a challenge to her leadership, the second was Brexit chaos and Labour’s more aggressive, astute opposition tactics. The third must now surely be these scandals. They have ensnared all parties equally but the impact is greater on the Conservatives as they are in power. More revelations are likely to lead to by-elections as politicians walk away from public humiliation and it will be this which will bring down a government already looking shaky.

Politics will be better off after the longer term repercussions of these scandals bear fruit. A new government operating under a reformed, healthier culture feels more imminent but it might not be a Conservative one.

Is it too much nowadays to assume political crises can be resolved calmly and without conflict? In the Catalan crisis we have the extraordinary situation in a modern European democracy of Spain’s attorney-general calling for charges of rebellion and sedition to be brought against the deposed Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, and his cabinet. This could lead to trials and jail. He, in return, has ‘fled’ to Belgium which may potentially offer him asylum!

Politics seems to be getting crazier. The situation could so easily have been resolved by sitting round the table to discuss further autonomy for the region with possibly a referendum on independence. It particularly makes sense from Madrid’s perspective when regional opinion polls suggest Puigdemont would have lost.

In this sense lessons could be taken from how London dealt with a call for Scottish independence. No threats to jail Nicola Sturgeon (umm…tempting) but a boil lanced at least for the time being. Of course, her call was not illegal but such demands should never be in a functioning democracy. Rajoy’s thin-skinned authoritarianism is embarrassing for the whole of Spain.

But where has the EU been in all this? Rather than riding to the rescue with a stance of maintaining democratic principles in its member states, it has been depressingly quiet. Quite different from its approach to authoritarianism in Eastern Europe.

Much has been said about the EU’s over-arching powers, but it has abdicated its responsibilities with Spain. Hypocrisy is everywhere, (not least amongst Brexit supporting commentators who support Catalan yet hated the thought of Scottish independence), but the EU should intervene to stop the Madrid government pursuing the ambitions of its excitable public prosecutor. We know why – it does not want its members splintering – but principles are not a luxury to be applied only when self-interest doesn’t get in the way. It undermines moral authority, so important when dealing with Putin, Xi and the Trumps of this world.

To be clear, Puigdemont has been being entirely self-indulgent in his behaviour. There is no logic in Catalan going independent. Spain is not a dictatorship; Catalan is a prosperous region and better for being part of Spain. He held a provocative, illegal referendum and his government’s subsequent vote for succession has caused a wholly unnecessary crisis. Sadly, however, Rajoy has made the situation worse and his government’s threatening legal tactics are unacceptable. The EU should speak firmly of the need to compromise and help broker an agreement. After all, if it can’t do this, what does it exist for?

An alarming report published by the Financial Conduct Authority this week paints a grim picture of the financial future for many in the UK. An astonishing 26 million people are described as ‘financially vulnerable’ with a growing gap between the wealth of young and old. A reliance on expensive credit products and reckless borrowing generally means there is a financial time bomb ticking.

The report based on a survey of 13,000 adults revealed that over 4 million 25-34 year olds are already in serious financial difficulty. The overall number will rise sharply if, as expected, interest rates start to rise with a staggering 17% of households saying they would struggle if mortgage repayments or rent rose by less than £50 per month.

There may be some unnecessary fear in these results with individuals too ready to plead imminent poverty but the scale of those under threat is too great to ignore. The fact is people are simply too ignorant about managing their financial futures responsibly with little understanding of the need or level of savings required for retirement being a prime example. With pressures on housing costs, inflationary rises in the price of utilities and travel, restrictions on welfare budgets and a well-documented transfer of wealth to older voters (rises in house prices, winter fuel allowances, triple locks on pensions, student loans etc.) taking their toll, perhaps the report is hardly surprising.

One statistic which is nearly always alarming is the household savings ratio. At an almost all time low compared to other developed countries, second only to the US, it needs to rise in the UK. Building an economy on credit and rampant consumerism is hardly a path to financial success in the long run. It is a moot point whether it reflects a generational change in values or record low interest rates; probably a combination of both. But with regard to the latter, it is worth remembering that inflation is never dead and rising interest rates are now not far away.

The need for comprehensive financial education from school age upwards with increased support from the private sector has never been more needed.

Lastly, specifically for those reliant on benefits, an immediate threat to their financial future is the roll out of Universal Credit. Whilst it is widely supported in principle, of the 8% of claimants so far effected, there are, it seems, too many horror stories developing of delayed payments creating real hardship. With Conservative MPs this week instructed not to vote in parliament on a Labour proposal to ‘pause’ the roll-out and the Government forced to make a U-turn so that the Universal Credit hotline is free (why wasn’t this the case from the start?) it is rapidly becoming a symbol of Conservative heartlessness. It would be ironic if initiatives such as this rather than the disarray over Brexit was the catalyst that ended this current administration.

Why are we where we are with Trump, Brexit and a move to the far right across Europe to name just a few exciting political developments…?

Quite simply because complacency and arrogance all too often builds up in a cliquey governing liberal elite whose hypocrisy has been regularly exposed. If it wasn’t so serious, with potentially tragic consequences, it would almost be comical.

Where to start. Well let’s begin with Harvey Weinstein. The same liberals who rightly condemned Trump’s behaviour stayed silent for years whilst Weinstein abused women. The same Clinton’s, Obama’s and liberal media who must have known the back story or at least strong rumours of it took Weinstein’s donations and advertising revenue whilst ignoring or suppressing stories about him. Now it is safe to do so they are falling over themselves to condemn him but a little late one feels….

Then you have Blair, Brown, Cameron et al embracing Europe to the extent of ignoring the pressures of immigration until it is also too late, all exacerbated by the awful European Commission. Now the worst sentiments of a xenophobic society are rising to the surface in the UK as well as elsewhere (witness the results from the Austrian and French elections) as we leave the EU.

Go back further and the same traits were found in the Tory Left in the 1960s/1970s (although I don’t think those active at the time and still alive today recognise it). Why is this relevant? It led to the radicalism of Thatcher. She was a force for good for a while but left an ideological, anti-European legacy behind her which is the foundation of today’s Conservative Party and where we are on Brexit.

There are other, numerous examples of hubris. Political correctness gone mad and an assumption that building an alliance across minorities is enough in itself (Clinton).

Democracy means you have to listen to the concerns of all voters, knowing when to lead and when to follow, to ensure your priorities never fall too far out of sync with their concerns (if only the European Commission understood this). It also means applying forward looking, liberal values evenly across people’s behaviour. So much progress has been made by this approach in so many areas both economically and socially. It is put at risk by the traits highlighted above which are too often on display, making liberal democracy an easier target that it should be from populism.