America is our closest ally. The world has benefited from American global leadership and so have we. Corbyn and his allies don’t get this. The Government and most of the British public do.

And yet, America is currently led by an appalling president. Let’s just run through a few of his actions in the past week whilst I have been here:

• he has resurrected claims that Barack Obama is not a US citizen
• he claims that the tape recording of his comments about assaulting women which he apologised for during his campaign may now be fake news
• he has retweeted racist, far-right videos to the horror of the UK and then had a public spat with the Prime Minister
• he is driving forward tax reform, now just passed by the Senate, which rewards the rich and further undermines Obamacare (it also allows for drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge…)

American politics is in turmoil reflecting a divided country – one half of the country appearing to live in a parallel universe to the other.

And the Democrats are not without blame in all this. They have ignored many voters to their cost believing an alliance of minorities and support for, seemingly at times, extreme political correctness is enough. Their hypocrisy over a recent torrent of sexual abuse claims where they have condemned Republicans but have been found to ignore dubious behaviour within their own ranks has only compounded divisions. They lack fresh leadership and a new narrative which allows Trump to get away with far more than he should.

But the real issue is Trump. He corrodes public discourse, taking a scorched earth approach to political debate. He is petty, vindictive, divisive and a blatant liar. Factual reporting is undermined by reckless accusations of ‘fake news’. It will take much longer than the tenure of Trump’s presidency to heal the wounds.

On foreign policy, he is also  dreadful. His withdrawal of America from the international stage is leaving a vacuum nicely filled by a far from altruistic China. Let alone giving carte blanche to his corrupt friend Putin. It is not so much about ‘Making America Great Again’ as ‘Making America Small’. The long term damage is incalculable.

As America’s closest ally, it is time to cut ties with Trump, withdrawing an invitation to visit the UK. Such is public opposition to him, the trip would be a disaster anyway. A famously inward looking country needs to know what impact their president is making internationally and in particular to a friend like Britain.

The Republican leadership don’t like him, nor do much of the American public. We will get our post Brexit trade deal without him. We should embrace the rest of America as we always do, positively, but without Trump. In doing so, we would be doing ourselves and, equally importantly, America a favour.

It is dangerous writing about budgets so soon after delivery since they can unravel with alarming speed but a US trip beckons so there is no alternative…

This was the Conservatives at their fiscal best. Cautious, caring, with some targeted extra expenditure, and sensible reforms to the tax system. All without losing sight of the grinding need to bring down the deficit. In contrast, Corbyn’s financially illiterate, ranting response demonstrates why the Opposition is so manifestly incapable of taking responsibility for the economic stewardship of the country.

Most notable budget positives were a continuing above-inflation rise in the national living wage, improvements in the delivery of Universal Credit, more investment in infrastructure and technological initiatives and modest further investment in the NHS. On housing, there was an impressive £44bn increase in loans and capital spending to increase the supply of housing by 300k units per year by the mid-2020s combined with the abolition of Stamp Duty for first-time buyers on properties under £300k. More complex reforms to land bank management and careful relaxing of pay levels for the retention and recruitment of key workers such as nurses, are rightly put to an enquiry. The list could go on. All sensible stuff and seemingly unlikely to unravel.

The economic record of the Conservative Government (sometimes part coalition) has largely been outstanding since 2010. Despite some missteps, a falling deficit, 3 million plus more jobs and the relative improvement of those most poorly paid have been excellent achievements. Perhaps underpinning the benefits of EU membership…

Austerity can and should now be gradually loosened, particularly where it is cutting into the bone of local services and this is starting to happen.

And yet, sadly, this was no radical budget and is unlikely to alter the current political narrative. The Chancellor today provided something for a lot of people but not enough for any one group and few initiatives will impact immediately. Headlines are partly dominated by the forecast of economic growth slowing sharply, restricting future room for manoeuvre. Brexit has apparently cost £700m so far with another £3 billion to come, only re-emphasising the scale of damage this decision, guided by so many Conservatives, is causing.

In the last piece of commentary a game changing budget was asked for. This was not it. The next rescue bid for this Government moves to EU negotiations. A more generous exit settlement combined with talks starting on a trade deal may provide the lifeboat needed. We shall see.

 

Caution isn’t working. Since the disastrous election, Theresa May has been walking on egg shells. Until recent scandals, the Cabinet remained largely unchanged despite grim behaviour from some members. Brexit negotiations have stalled despite a few U-turns here and there, and domestic policy has offered no refuge. Any initiatives at home have been tepid at best and gaffes dominate the political agenda. The government has seemed exhausted from the start, overwhelmed by the intricacies of leaving Europe.

The consequence? Theresa May is weaker than ever and Labour is stronger than ever; Brexit is heading over a cliff fuelled by internal Tory divisions. We await the skirmishes over the EU Withdrawal Bill with trepidation but Parliament, begrudgingly, has at least been given a vote on the final Brexit deal.

The Prime Minister has also lost control of events closer to home. Cabinet changes have been thrust upon her with replacements involving timid, minor reshuffles. She leads a divided party and a poor Cabinet with the media in full pursuit. What price Brexit for the Conservative Party now?

The consensus amongst those at the heart of government was that there would be no challenge to May or a consequent General Election for fear of something worse. That consensus is breaking down. Theresa May looks damaged and is almost certain to go sooner rather than later unless…unless…

Like a dying patient requiring resuscitation, she needs shock treatment. And that shock has to be self-delivered and involve the following: first, there must be a wholesale cabinet re-shuffle with those not up to the job (or disloyal) departing. There is no longer any room for the Boris Johnsons of this world. It is time to move a new generation of MPs into ministerial positions generally and the Cabinet in particular. Second, EU negotiations need to be kick started with the offer of a comprehensive financial settlement combined with full confirmation of the rights of EU citizens in the UK. Then a broad transition deal needs to be negotiated. Third, a sensational budget is required. This feels close to being the last throw of the dice. How about ‘war time powers’ to seize land for house building purposes and cutting the deficit through radical changes to some expensive pension tax reliefs (first mooted by George Osborne) which simply benefit the better off?

It is time Theresa May faced down the critics in her party and the media with bold actions. If it hastens her departure, then she can go with her head held high. Anything is better than death by a thousand humiliations and she just might rescue her government in the process.

 

Let’s be absolutely clear. A body responsible for passing laws which tells the rest of us how we should behave should be beyond reproach. A culture of sexism and boorish behaviour generally, often fuelled by too much alcohol, is at odds with this. That such an environment exists is beyond doubt, particularly when it is on show each week at Prime Minister’s Question Time.

The strange nature of a parliamentary career with unsociable hours, proximity to power, ruthless ambition combined with often humiliating disappointments, all lived in the public eye, is fertile ground for such a culture to flourish. But this is no excuse. It is vastly out of date. No wonder parliament is losing our respect with the consequence that not enough good people of both sexes are entering politics.

But the caveat must be that accusations need to be carefully verified. Some allegations are more serious than others and it is important individuals are not deemed guilty from the start. Witch hunts can have their own unfortunate consequences.

The solution to all this is to stop the abuse of power at source and clean up procedures so that unacceptable behaviours can be reported confidentially and without repercussions to an independent body in parliament. Business has been doing this for years. Amateur hour for politics is over. MPs need HR guidance and parties, of course, need their own governance to be enhanced. And ending subsidised alcohol in parliament wouldn’t go amiss either.

Theresa May started the luckiest of politicians and now must be the unluckiest. In tracking what may bring her government down, the first reason might have been a challenge to her leadership, the second was Brexit chaos and Labour’s more aggressive, astute opposition tactics. The third must now surely be these scandals. They have ensnared all parties equally but the impact is greater on the Conservatives as they are in power. More revelations are likely to lead to by-elections as politicians walk away from public humiliation and it will be this which will bring down a government already looking shaky.

Politics will be better off after the longer term repercussions of these scandals bear fruit. A new government operating under a reformed, healthier culture feels more imminent but it might not be a Conservative one.

Is it too much nowadays to assume political crises can be resolved calmly and without conflict? In the Catalan crisis we have the extraordinary situation in a modern European democracy of Spain’s attorney-general calling for charges of rebellion and sedition to be brought against the deposed Catalan leader, Carles Puigdemont, and his cabinet. This could lead to trials and jail. He, in return, has ‘fled’ to Belgium which may potentially offer him asylum!

Politics seems to be getting crazier. The situation could so easily have been resolved by sitting round the table to discuss further autonomy for the region with possibly a referendum on independence. It particularly makes sense from Madrid’s perspective when regional opinion polls suggest Puigdemont would have lost.

In this sense lessons could be taken from how London dealt with a call for Scottish independence. No threats to jail Nicola Sturgeon (umm…tempting) but a boil lanced at least for the time being. Of course, her call was not illegal but such demands should never be in a functioning democracy. Rajoy’s thin-skinned authoritarianism is embarrassing for the whole of Spain.

But where has the EU been in all this? Rather than riding to the rescue with a stance of maintaining democratic principles in its member states, it has been depressingly quiet. Quite different from its approach to authoritarianism in Eastern Europe.

Much has been said about the EU’s over-arching powers, but it has abdicated its responsibilities with Spain. Hypocrisy is everywhere, (not least amongst Brexit supporting commentators who support Catalan yet hated the thought of Scottish independence), but the EU should intervene to stop the Madrid government pursuing the ambitions of its excitable public prosecutor. We know why – it does not want its members splintering – but principles are not a luxury to be applied only when self-interest doesn’t get in the way. It undermines moral authority, so important when dealing with Putin, Xi and the Trumps of this world.

To be clear, Puigdemont has been being entirely self-indulgent in his behaviour. There is no logic in Catalan going independent. Spain is not a dictatorship; Catalan is a prosperous region and better for being part of Spain. He held a provocative, illegal referendum and his government’s subsequent vote for succession has caused a wholly unnecessary crisis. Sadly, however, Rajoy has made the situation worse and his government’s threatening legal tactics are unacceptable. The EU should speak firmly of the need to compromise and help broker an agreement. After all, if it can’t do this, what does it exist for?

An alarming report published by the Financial Conduct Authority this week paints a grim picture of the financial future for many in the UK. An astonishing 26 million people are described as ‘financially vulnerable’ with a growing gap between the wealth of young and old. A reliance on expensive credit products and reckless borrowing generally means there is a financial time bomb ticking.

The report based on a survey of 13,000 adults revealed that over 4 million 25-34 year olds are already in serious financial difficulty. The overall number will rise sharply if, as expected, interest rates start to rise with a staggering 17% of households saying they would struggle if mortgage repayments or rent rose by less than £50 per month.

There may be some unnecessary fear in these results with individuals too ready to plead imminent poverty but the scale of those under threat is too great to ignore. The fact is people are simply too ignorant about managing their financial futures responsibly with little understanding of the need or level of savings required for retirement being a prime example. With pressures on housing costs, inflationary rises in the price of utilities and travel, restrictions on welfare budgets and a well-documented transfer of wealth to older voters (rises in house prices, winter fuel allowances, triple locks on pensions, student loans etc.) taking their toll, perhaps the report is hardly surprising.

One statistic which is nearly always alarming is the household savings ratio. At an almost all time low compared to other developed countries, second only to the US, it needs to rise in the UK. Building an economy on credit and rampant consumerism is hardly a path to financial success in the long run. It is a moot point whether it reflects a generational change in values or record low interest rates; probably a combination of both. But with regard to the latter, it is worth remembering that inflation is never dead and rising interest rates are now not far away.

The need for comprehensive financial education from school age upwards with increased support from the private sector has never been more needed.

Lastly, specifically for those reliant on benefits, an immediate threat to their financial future is the roll out of Universal Credit. Whilst it is widely supported in principle, of the 8% of claimants so far effected, there are, it seems, too many horror stories developing of delayed payments creating real hardship. With Conservative MPs this week instructed not to vote in parliament on a Labour proposal to ‘pause’ the roll-out and the Government forced to make a U-turn so that the Universal Credit hotline is free (why wasn’t this the case from the start?) it is rapidly becoming a symbol of Conservative heartlessness. It would be ironic if initiatives such as this rather than the disarray over Brexit was the catalyst that ended this current administration.

Why are we where we are with Trump, Brexit and a move to the far right across Europe to name just a few exciting political developments…?

Quite simply because complacency and arrogance all too often builds up in a cliquey governing liberal elite whose hypocrisy has been regularly exposed. If it wasn’t so serious, with potentially tragic consequences, it would almost be comical.

Where to start. Well let’s begin with Harvey Weinstein. The same liberals who rightly condemned Trump’s behaviour stayed silent for years whilst Weinstein abused women. The same Clinton’s, Obama’s and liberal media who must have known the back story or at least strong rumours of it took Weinstein’s donations and advertising revenue whilst ignoring or suppressing stories about him. Now it is safe to do so they are falling over themselves to condemn him but a little late one feels….

Then you have Blair, Brown, Cameron et al embracing Europe to the extent of ignoring the pressures of immigration until it is also too late, all exacerbated by the awful European Commission. Now the worst sentiments of a xenophobic society are rising to the surface in the UK as well as elsewhere (witness the results from the Austrian and French elections) as we leave the EU.

Go back further and the same traits were found in the Tory Left in the 1960s/1970s (although I don’t think those active at the time and still alive today recognise it). Why is this relevant? It led to the radicalism of Thatcher. She was a force for good for a while but left an ideological, anti-European legacy behind her which is the foundation of today’s Conservative Party and where we are on Brexit.

There are other, numerous examples of hubris. Political correctness gone mad and an assumption that building an alliance across minorities is enough in itself (Clinton).

Democracy means you have to listen to the concerns of all voters, knowing when to lead and when to follow, to ensure your priorities never fall too far out of sync with their concerns (if only the European Commission understood this). It also means applying forward looking, liberal values evenly across people’s behaviour. So much progress has been made by this approach in so many areas both economically and socially. It is put at risk by the traits highlighted above which are too often on display, making liberal democracy an easier target that it should be from populism.

How did Catalonia’s desire for separatism reach such a crisis point in what is now a relatively mature democracy? It all seemed sorted back in 2006 when a Statute of Autonomy agreed by the Catalan and Spanish Governments seemed to solve the tensions. Unfortunately, the People’s Party (now led by Mariano Rajoy, the current Spanish Prime Minister) challenged the Statute in Madrid’s Constitutional Court and it was largely over-turned leading to the current crisis.

In recent weeks it has all gone downhill, culminating in an illegal referendum on 1 October. 90% of only 43% of voters who turned out supported independence; but this was less an issue than the heavy handed response of the national police who on the instructions of Madrid tried to head off the vote, closing ballot booths, dragging voters by their hair along the streets and generally inciting violence. These were shocking scenes which are wholly unacceptable in a western democracy.

The EU was uncommonly quiet on the issue and hypocritical in comparison to their response to anti-democratic events in Eastern Europe but the reason for this is obvious. They don’t want momentum to build in favour of a fragmented Europe where there are other regions wanting self-determination. The EU was hardly sympathetic to Scottish independence. But this is not the point. Principles of democracy and criticism of unacceptable behaviour by authorities should be applied with equal vigour across all of the EU, not selectively.

So what is the solution? First, it is unclear whether there is even a majority of support for full independence in Catalonia. Opinion polls across all voters in the region seem to suggest not. Second, in an uncertain, volatile world where larger power blocs dominate and economies of scale from globalisation (whatever Trump says) count, this is not a time for regional fragmentation (the same of course applies to Scotland and even the UK…).

Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan President, calls the referendum a sufficient mandate for succession but shows signs of compromise in part probably driven by the reaction of businesses who are moving/threatening to move activities out of the region. Rajoy has not reciprocated. He is an unpleasant Prime Minister who has taken a constantly aggressive, provocative approach to this issue.

There is a need to compromise, however unfashionable this concept is nowadays. In such a troubled world this issue should not have been allowed to escalate so far. Rajoy should stop bullying from his Madrid pulpit and re-visit the 2006 Statute and the EU should put pressure where it is needed. Catalonia and the rest of Spain should move on. It is the least of the region’s problems, let alone what is happening in other continents.

With a collective sigh of relief, the Conservative Party conference is over. The Tories are depressed and Manchester, which never really welcomes them, felt a strange venue for a lost tribe.

There was a vacuum at the heart of proceedings with ideas and leadership thin on the ground. In this gloom, any charisma disproportionally attracted attention, hence the spotlight on Ruth, Boris and Jacob. Only one of these merits serious consideration as a future leader but more of that later.

Fringe meetings, where the real action takes place, on the whole appeared dull, with repetitive topics only occasionally offering useful ideas. Advance policy announcements were also incredibly weak on student debt and housing policies which seem unintentionally designed to boost demand not supply. Despite protestations, this is a government so overwhelmed by Brexit, there isn’t the bandwidth for anything else.

And yet there were grounds for optimism, a silver lining in a dark Manchester sky. There was a growing recognition that the case needs to be re-made for free markets, competition and the benefits they bring to the long term enhancement of standards of living for all. Supporters have been negligent in doing this since winning the battles of the 1970s/80s and the new threat of a hard left Labour Party brings urgency to making up lost ground. Philip Hammond and Theresa May in their conference speeches both referenced this but, in fringe meetings, it was Ruth Davidson who articulated the case for centre right politics in modern, refreshing terms.

She wasn’t afraid to use the word ‘centre’ either and represents the future of the Conservative Party. But not yet. She needs time to grow into a leadership role with expectations carefully managed but the combination of insight, humour and authenticity is irreplaceable. The Tories will be reinvigorated by a new intellectual debate on the merits of compassionate, free market capitalism. This is the ground on which they will eventually see off Labour and it would be great if Ruth was eventually the one to lead it.

Lastly, to Theresa’s speech. She soldiered on through a prankster and coughing fits to deliver a solid case for her premiership. In what is surely the most depressing job in politics, she showed some humour and hopefully elicited sympathy in dealing with the trials of her speech. She deserves the respect of her colleagues and the electorate (after all, it was they who voted for Brexit) in managing the almost impossible demands of her role, not least the rampant and often unfounded speculation from the media. It is in everyone’s interest that she should be left alone to get on with that role for now.

 

A fair comment from Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories will be on trial next week and if they show the same self-indulgence of recent weeks the reluctant conclusion will be that they deserve what they get. Except the British people don’t deserve the consequences of a Labour Government.

The stunning achievement of Theresa May’s General Election campaign was to make Corbyn electable. In his radical and at times effective closing conference speech today, Corbyn presented a wish list of reforms including an array of spending pledges from re-nationalisation, to lifting public sector pay caps across the board; from wiping out student debt to cancelling PFI’s regardless of its impact on the national debt. He breezily swatted away the biggest issue of the day, Brexit, on which Labour are almost as divided as the Tories and left unaddressed the concerns of his Shadow Chancellor of a possible run on the pound. He stood there almost certainly supporting the Stalinist practices of Momentum and the likes of Len McCluskey (re-elected Unite’s General Secretary on only a 5% share of the membership’s vote) as they tighten their grip on the grassroots. However, the Labour Party, despite their hatreds, including barely disguised anti-Semitism, are speaking well and a weakened Conservative Party currently leaves them almost uncontested.

Deep down Labour remain a deeply unpleasant lot with a front bench almost totally unfit to assume responsibility for a larger State. And yet… and yet…today Corbyn in particular made some highly legitimate points. The Conservative Party often appears uncaring, talking about austerity in balance sheet terms rather than understanding the day to day impact on the poorest. The rich are embraced with enthusiasm whilst social liberalism is only reluctantly embraced by the grass roots. The politicisation of the Grenfell Tower fire is a disgrace, but it starkly showed the warped priorities of a Tory local government and exposed wider concerns about the direction society is heading. However unfair, Corbyn’s comments about disregard for rampant inequality, the hollowing out of public services and disdain for the powerless resonate. On foreign policy, a more moral approach and standing up to Trump’s America will also be widely supported.

The consequences of many Labour policies will to be damage the prospects of the very people they seek to help, creating a weaker economy and a larger State run by incompetent politicians. To head this off, the Tories need to stop obsessing about Brexit, find a new language to speak to broader sections of the electorate including the young, and introduce policies demonstrating their moral compass of caring for the more vulnerable in society, fronted by the most able up-and-coming MPs. They are on notice next week. Their actions will be unforgiveable if, by Wednesday, a Corbyn Government becomes more likely.