Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.
Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.
To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?
International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.
Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.
The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.
The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.
But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.
So, lucky us. We get Donald Trump twice this year. First, playing golf in Turnberry with Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer rushing up to Scotland to pay homage and then the State visit in September. Umm…
Trump has dominated the headlines since day one of his presidency, hitting the ground running with a highly competent far-right team behind him, introducing some ground-breaking and irreversible domestic and international policies. You might not like him, but as with Farage, he is a transformative politician.
Trump swings into Scotland…
So, how does the balance sheet of Trump’s actions look as we head off for the summer holidays? Well, first the good, as it is the shortest part.
Trump was right to goad and threaten Europe into paying more for its own defence. Previous US presidents have urged this but have then done nothing to force Europe’s hand. There has always been a strong isolationist streak in America, and Trump has played this beautifully to get a 3.5 per cent of GDP defence spending commitment from European countries (ex-Spain). Second, immigration. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border has now fallen by 90 per cent on a month on month basis. Whatever you think of the merits of migration or the way Trump has treated this issue, the scale of illegal border crossings was storing up huge tensions in the US, even amongst many Democrat voters as southern states sent immigrants north to be housed. Obama was actually the toughest US president to curb numbers before Trump. Biden was hopeless. In thrall to his left-wing, he totally failed (as did Harris) to understand the strength of feeling on this issue across a majority of voters. Take note, Starmer.
OK, that’s enough ‘praise’. Now the bad. Tariffs do not work. They will potentially cause huge market inefficiencies and drive up prices. The consequences have yet to be felt. The rates are illogical across countries, although the overall impact might not be as great as earlier predictions indicated. Second, the recent tax bill. It strips Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party who pushed it through, ballooning the deficit in the process. What happened to fiscal conservatism? One senses the next global economic crisis might be driven by a fear of America defaulting on its debt, evidence demonstrated by the current weakness of the US Dollar.
Then the very ugly. There could be an entire book on this. Regardless of policy, it is the morality of leaders and their probity, which provides the bedrock to democracy. Trump simply lies, lies, lies. Perhaps an unsurprising trait in a convicted felon. Americans either don’t notice or don’t care about the State capture blatantly on view, whether it is Trump’s crypto-currency deals, the acceptance of a jet from Qatar or the fact that he, his family and ‘friends’ constantly trade on the broader influence of the presidency to enrich themselves. Next is the undermining of state institutions, the bullying of universities and arts generally in a drive to eradicate ‘political correctness’, the attempt to compromise an independent judicial process. The list goes on, but the ugly is also a fair description of fawning Western leaders who have swallowed their pride to accommodate Trump.
Finally, the lowest of the lows was how President Zelenskyy was treated in the White House in February. This was an iconic moment. Surrounded by individuals who had never fought, been under any military threat, and, in some cases, had dodged the Vietnam draft, it was a shameful episode. JD Vance’s behaviour was on this occasion, even worse than Trump’s. How dare they speak to a fellow president like that, representing a country under existential threat. This spectacle alone should be enough to justify a damning analysis of Trump’s presidency. The one silver lining is that Trump hasn’t had the opportunity to hand Ukraine to Putin and now understands the Russian leader isn’t quite the pal he thought he was.
The future? Who knows, as the Democrats sink to record levels of unpopularity and irrelevance. Will the presidency and federal institutions recover from four years of Trump? Will anyone realise the damage done by ineffectual checks and balances on centralised power? One doubts it. In a few years, which can’t come too soon, Trump’s emperor-like reign will end. But the hangover will be enormous.
Why don’t mainstream politicians ever learn? If you over-promise and under-deliver, it will fuel cynicism, driving voters into the arms of populists.
It is in the area of tax that Starmer’s government has got itself in the greatest mess. Frightened into saying Labour will not raise core taxes during the general election campaign, it is now stuck. Ministers cannot or feel they cannot break election pledges of not increasing income tax, VAT, or employees’ national insurance. As the economy fails to boom, partly undermined by taxes on business (confused message here – growth versus employers’ national insurance increase which inhibits growth), the government now has a potential new black hole of £20 billion in its finances.
Time for Starmer and Reeves to level with the public…
Yet Labour backbenchers will not stomach a cut of even £5 billion to the bottom line of bloated welfare expenditure. The NHS gobbles up vast amounts of new funding, defence expenditure will rise to 3.5% of GDP and £100 billion is promised on long-term capital expenditure.
What is to give? More tax on business will send the economy into recession and wealth taxes, after the disastrous policy of tightening up non-dom eligibility to pay UK inheritance taxes on worldwide assets (who thought of that one?), will simply lead to a further flight of capital which is wholly at odds with a ‘growth’ economy.
Meanwhile, Labour’s closest rival, Reform, is happy to splash out an extra £100 billion on law and order, scrapping the two-child limit on benefit payments, reinstating the winter fuel allowance in full, introducing a more generous transferable marriage tax allowance and increasing the income tax personal allowance to £20,000 a year. All this will be offset by scrapping HS2 and scrapping net zero policies. Umm… not an ounce of detail provided.
The reason Reform is getting away with it is Labour is in power, not them and Farage has yet to be subject to any close scrutiny. Populism is simply too popular to be disbelieved in the face of conventional politicians evading the truth.
What is to be done? Labour needs to have an honest dialogue with the electorate about the incompatible priorities of not increasing taxes yet promising improved public services, let alone a larger defence budget to keep us safe. It should outline genuine tax and spend tax dilemmas and take the pain of unpopular policies today to really succeed in delivering what the electorate wants tomorrow. You cannot have your cake and eat it. The electorate need to know this.
So, cut red tape on business and planning, cull the bloated civil service, reform welfare, reverse one of the Tories’ employees’ national insurance cuts and reduce upper rate tax relief on pension contributions. And while doing this plan for an ever closer relationship with the EU, making it clear Brexit is one of the reasons for the UK being in such a mess.
Much of this will be dreadfully unpopular but Labour then has four years to unpick Reform’s impossible plans which will come under greater scrutiny the closer it gets to power and prove steady competence from moderates in the medium-term works.
The electorate will hopefully understand there are no easy solutions to the dissatisfaction and cynicism they feel today if the government levels with them. And telling the truth without platitudes may even have the added advantage of pricking populism’s bubble before it is too late.
For the first time (yes, it has taken this long…), I am concerned about the direction or, rather, lack of direction of this government. I have always thought Starmer’s ideological pragmatism was to be admired, but the danger is that if bad mistakes blow you off course, there is no path to return to.
A terrible week for Starmer’s government…
This happened big time this week. Amendments to the benefits system which the government tried to drive through parliament to show fiscal rectitude were horribly rushed. Why introduce them now when a comprehensive review of the whole system was in train, reporting in 2026? Rightly, a lack of logic and no attempt to win backbenchers over, meant defeat loomed despite a 165 seat majority. Starmer et al realised this far too late and the amendments to win his colleagues over first diluted savings and then eradicated them. No cost savings now, and the government’s authority and credibility shredded in the process. Nobody doubts the current benefits system is unsustainable, even most Labour backbenchers, but this was not the way to go about fixing it with short-term changes simply to save an immediate £5 billion.
However, for a moment, spare a thought for Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor. She looked terrible in parliament yesterday, barely containing her tears. The cause was explained as a personal matter, but nobody should go through this in public. In PMQs, the charmless Kemi Badenoch alighted on her and Starmer ignored her. It damaged both of them. Starmer made up for it in later interviews, yet it took Mel Stride, Tory Shadow Chancellor, from the Opposition to exhibit genuine sympathy for Reeves’ plight on Sky News this morning. Good on him. Sometimes the toll of public life is too great.
Anyway, back to the issue in hand. Starmer needs to get back to domestic politics full-time. It is understandable that Ukraine, the EU, Putin, Trump, NATO are all hugely time consuming, but you cannot contribute constructively to international crises if you are defenestrated at home.
Starmer needs to lay out a comprehensive map of where his government is heading and, consequently, what the UK should look like in 2029. There needs to be carefully calibrated milestones that the public can identify with to measure achievements. Visible progress is everything if Labour is to head off the populists.
Starmer also better move fast to build relations with his fellow MPs and get off the hook of obsessive fiscal discipline for now which is creating more harm than good through excessive short-termism. He needs to improve his economic understanding to avoid ‘what the markets are thinking’ panic every few weeks whilst at the same time defending Reeves to the hilt. They are joined at the hip whether he likes it or not. If she goes, he is next.
An NHS overhaul, new house builds, planning reform, reviews of the benefits system and social care (the latter taking too long, however), and infrastructure investment are all strong building blocks for recovery in the government’s fortunes. But, Starmer has to get his communications act together and give the vision thing or he could be toast.
And the alternatives are too awful to contemplate…
I went to Chicago, Boston, and New York last week on business. It included a mock listing for my company, JPES Partners, on Nasdaq courtesy of our partners, eVestment. Thank you. It was fun.
When in the US, focus on the positives such as Nasdaq’s brilliant self-promotion…
I stayed on to see close friends at the weekend. That was fun, too. But they are worried.
The politics of this country is dark, very dark. Like Brexit in the UK, Trump is toxic. Half of the electorate loathe him and are simply embarrassed or alarmed. The other half feel he is a slightly unpleasant necessity. A small minority of course love him but, even amongst the latter, few would want him round for dinner…
Trump’s presidency is sinister, and his presence makes the country increasingly foreign to Europeans. I was warned to take any anti-Trump material off my phone before entering the country as border security could ask to see it and send me home if it offended. What??? Federal institutions are under attack, including the judiciary. Cultural and educational institutions seen as liberal are also under attack or are usurped. Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre and the attempted crushing of Harvard by withdrawing federal grants are just two painful examples.
Trump threatens NATO, bombs Iran, swears at Israel and lies on the international stage. It is too early to address the impact of his chaotic foreign policy, but it is splitting his isolationist supporters. They will bend the knee in the end. They have nowhere else to go. Just listen to the pathetic and vile Steve Bannon grovelling to Trump on the Middle East.
Domestically, Trump also happens to be forcing through a tax bill stripping Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party.
Yet, the Democrats in response are hopeless. Either stunned into inaction or busy in-fighting. A new generation of activists believe a lurch to the Left is the solution to Trump with Democrats in New York electing a privileged self-described socialist to be their candidate for mayor. Take note, you muppets. Corbyn’s experience in the UK should be a guide. It may feel good, but you will never win elections nationally from this position. Voters are mostly centrist, and your failure to offer a decent alternative to Trump re voters’ core concerns handed him victory in the first place.
Trump was underestimated, and the US Constitution overestimated. Checks and balances feel illusionary. Against this background, I know many Europeans who have withdrawn from holidaying in the US until Trump has gone. Public life has become too wild. My response? I walked past Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, forgetting to look. You just have to focus on the belief that Trump will never define this country, whatever current damage this man does. Just ignore him and keep on walking…
As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…
It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.
The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:
The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…
Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.
Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism
Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.
Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.
If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.
Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…
The Trump presidency is a roller coaster affair, even worse than most pundits feared. You can’t argue it isn’t box office, though, perhaps deliberately so. The long expected blow-up between Trump and Musk is pure theatre.
A relationship made for theatre…
However, there is one constant. The state of the US economy and its grotesque burden of debt. On this issue, Elon Musk is correct.
The budget deficit was an incredible 6.4% of GDP in 2024. Forecasters expect this to rise above 7% in every year of Trump’s presidency. The US debt pile currently exceeds 120% of GDP. This is unsustainable.
When Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, has to reassure markets that ‘the US is never going to default’, you know there is real trouble brewing.
Trump’s big, beautiful tax bill will remove the debt ceiling. Its impact is expected to add US2.4 trillion of additional debt over the next decade. The evidence is clear. Tax cuts mainly for the better off, never pay for themselves.
Add to this tariffs cutting growth, fears over Trump’s presidency undermining the rule of law and unpredictable foreign policy initiatives in the face of geopolitical instability, and you have a recipe for economic disaster.
Longer-term US interest rates are rising, exacerbating the debt problem whilst the US dollar weakens.
Trump’s economic approval ratings are dire, but these are not yet in territory to undermine his populist presidency. He continues to play out his hugely risky economic experiment. Republican fiscal conservatives must be turning in their graves, for that is where most of them are.
Bill Clinton was the last president to balance the budget. Rather than set up his own party, perhaps Elon Musk should change sides and vote Democrat…
Meanwhile, on this side of the pond it is a key week for the Labour government as it announces details of its spending review. More on this later but if it is not ‘big, beautiful and bold’, you would have to ask what is the point of Starmer/Reeves et al.
Managing Trump relatively successfully, a US/UK trade deal, a UK/India trade deal, a new compact with the EU. Despite the devil being in the detail, Starmer should get a pat on the back.
Being PM is a thankless task…
He won’t, of course. None of the above will get the UK back to a pre-Brexit nirvana. They barely get us to the starting line, and few voters will see any immediate impact.
The narrative has been set. All mainstream politicians are useless at best, dissembling voters to hide their inadequacies. Starmer is no exception.
Reform, according to many voters, tells it as it is. Excessive political correctness, an interfering state, too much immigration that Labour lovies secretly like. Then, the government cosies up to Europe, selling the fisheries industry down the river, so to speak.
Just a reminder on the latter, the fisheries industry contributes 0.03% to the UK economy. 70% of agricultural output is sold to Europe. This has been made immeasurably easier because of this week’s deal.
But in a world of populism, there is little rational debate. Scare tactics, yah-boo exchanges, and downright lies dominate debate, not facts.
For Starmer, what can he do? Very little. It will be a hard slog to the next election. He will need to prove NHS waiting lists are falling, immigration is falling, and the economy is growing with tangible benefits, including an increase in housing supply.
It would help if he had a clearer philosophical narrative. This blog likes his non-ideological pragmatism, but it makes it harder to explain the ultimate destination he is trying to reach.
However, he has one major advantage. The increasingly haplessness of today’s Tory Party. Starmer will be able to differentiate himself much more clearly from Reform at the next election than in the days when it used to be a competitive race with the Tories.
Until then, it will be an uphill, thankless battle. Who would go into politics?
The UK election results this morning are putting a smile on Nigel Farage’s face. A by-election win for Reform in Runcorn (by 6 votes), winning the mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire and a slew of council seats to come.
This portrait of Nigel Farage in the National Portrait Gallery says it all… for now…
Labour is on the back foot, but they held on to the mayoralties in North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster. They should not panic over the success of Reform any more than the main parties might have done when the LibDems surged in by-elections. It has been a grim first year for the Government. A misjudged first budget, economic headwinds everywhere leaving little money to improve public services, all exacerbated by Trump’s tariffs have provided a terrible backdrop to these elections.
However, whilst this blog predicts further success for Reform, they are close to peaking, loathed by a large majority of the electorate. Labour, despite the uninspiring but broadly competent leadership of Keir Starmer, is close to bottoming.
We are, as the Greens put it, in a period when most votes are being more evenly split between five parties. This will lead to erratic and dramatic election results, but Labour is still in the strongest position by far to win the next general election. Excitable journalists should remember there is still four years to go.
The party who should panic is the Tory Party. It has totally lost its way, stands for nothing and speaks to nobody. Its audience has drifted and is drifting off to the LibDems to the Left and Reform to the Right.
There is a clear conclusion from these results. Kemi Badenoch is not up to the job. Fearful of the Right, she shamefully pursues culture wars when there are much more important issues to address and define her party. Why are Tories Tories? It is the economy stupid. Small government, taxes extracted from the public with real justification or not at all. It is the Party of aspiration not prejudice.
Running after Reform’s agenda has been and will continue to be a disaster, take note, Robert Jenrick. The Conservative Party probably needs James Cleverly as leader to buy itself some time, but to do what? To get back to first principles, not letting others to define it. It is that simple but do the Tories have the understanding or the appetite to do this? There is no evidence so far, and until the Tories wake up and release themselves from their obsession with Reform, they have no future.
Donald Trump once said: ‘I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I still wouldn’t lose any (Republican activist) voters, OK?’
Economically, Trump has done just that. Tariffs everywhere. The end of globalisation as we know it. A potential worldwide recession, higher inflation, the breakdown of traditional Western alliances. It is all in the melting pot, and the President of the United States doesn’t care. He is bulletproof, so to speak.
A President out of control…
He has always been in favour of tariffs, taking out advertisements back in the 80s supporting the concept, combining it with disgust at paying to defend countries he deemed could afford to protect themselves. He may have a point on the latter issue, but American defence companies have made a fortune in the process.
Nobody can say they didn’t know what they were electing with Trump. Except… there are no policy analyses in presidential elections. None of his views were ever really tested in debate. For example, the economic jingoism of tariffs resonates with ordinary Republican activists/voters and many others besides but not the realities/practicalities. Such rashness would always be tested in a UK General Election campaign. Just ask Theresa May and her 2017 social care proposals.
Professional Republican politicians, Reaganites if you like, who were brought up believing in free-trade, NATO, and Western democratic values have been swept aside by far-right, isolationist MAGA activists who have taken over the GOP and terrified them into silence.
Cowardice prevails. Janan Ganash of the FT at my company’s annual investment seminar back in November warned Trump, with no re-election pressures, would be unleashed. There seems to be no checks and balances amongst Republicans, professional or otherwise on his actions.
Trump today means what he says. Tariffs, Greenland, the Panama Canal, a bromance with Putin, a third term. He is serious about them all.
Republicans created this monster or, rather, failed to stop him. Whether it be a global recession or a carve up of Ukraine just to start with, they will own the grim consequences of a president who is out of control.
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