Incredibly, yes incredibly, Theresa May may still get her Withdrawal Agreement through, although the window of opportunity is shrinking by the hour. An hour is the new measurement in politics by the way; because too much happens in a day, let alone a week…

However, at least 20 Tory MPs currently aided and abetted by the DUP, may hold out regardless, unwilling to sacrifice any compromise on methods of EU departure, including the PM’s guaranteed resignation, on the altar of a pure Brexit. Wow.

And, as a reminder, think who those DUP allies are. A bunch of illiberal, old-fashioned, pork-barrel driven politicians opposed to abortion and same sex marriage; everything modern Tories should abhor. A potential nail in the coffin for the Tories’ longer term survival, to be re-visited at a later date.

Tomorrow we have a series of indicative votes on other options of how, if at all, to leave the EU. The Government lost three further highly-able, moderate ministers last night who voted for this measure. There will not be enough ministers to cover the workings of government at this rate.

And there are real dangers in these indicative votes. The potential to tear the Tories apart is huge with leading government figures voting all over the place. Imagine Philip Hammond voting for a single market/customs union option versus many of his colleagues for example…It might be the second longer term nail in the Tories’ coffin, which is why May, so anxious to keep her beloved Party together, was keen to avoid indicative votes, let alone because it also takes parliamentary control away from the executive.

Incredibly (see above), there is a small chance that if Parliament is split fairly evenly between various options, then the Withdrawal Agreement splutters into life. But this is hard to rely on because of the Kamikazi 20.

The Tories are almost fatally split particularly because of those die-hard Brexit purists. If the Cabinet divides across various indicative vote options, if TM can’t get her Withdrawal Agreement through and resigns; if we crash out of the EU without a deal, precipitating chaos, or if Brexit is delayed beyond May then a General Election is the only solution left, probably followed by a second referendum.

The Tories will pay the price and rightly so. The Kamikazi 20, possibly supported by the DUP, will take the lead in being responsible for causing this unwanted General Election. If it happens, it may end the hegemony of Conservative-led administrations for at least a generation, if not longer, as politics re-aligns. As for The Independent Group, they are not even a Party yet, but things are looking increasingly bright for them. Good!

What a period of Mayhem. There was no majority for Theresa May’s deal second time around and no majority for no-deal. Parliament is gridlocked and poisonous, the clock is running down and Brexiteers see their chance of ever leaving the EU diminish by the day.

That is why May is likely to get her deal through at the very, very last minute. Unloved though it is, it is Brexiteers’ only guarantee of ever leaving the EU in the foreseeable future.

And May’s deal should really please everyone ex the side-show of the back-stop. The UK leaves the EU with 21 months to forge a new trading relationship. It allows Brexiteers to negotiate a clean break. It allows Remainers a chance to reverse the decision one way or another, possibly encompassing a ‘Norway option’ during this time.

If we can bear to look forward, the next issue is who are the casualties of all this chaos?

First, the Prime Minister. Theresa May made many initial mistakes with her red lines and triggering Article 50 which all unravelled when she lost her majority in an unnecessary General Election. But since then she has been tenacious; admirable in her dedication to getting a deal done which she believes delivers on the referendum result (whatever people understood by their vote), and which rescues her reputation.

The problem is that her suspicious, distrusting, unfriendly, often wooden approach to her premiership has allowed her enemies to multiply. There has been no bridge/coalition building. No reaching out to make new friends in seeking a deal. No sense that she can think laterally and ‘out of the box’ to create new solutions. Her rigid focus has been her strength but ultimately her fatal weakness.

Many thought she would soldier on post March 29th for quite a while, drifting closer to the next election with perhaps a wild hope she could defy the odds and fight in 2022. No longer. She has been wounded too many times; her colleagues are sick of her. From all sides of the EU debate, her Party wants a new leader and a fresh approach to the next chapter with Europe and, indeed, domestic policies generally. She will go before she is pushed, ahead of November. She will have to find a life outside politics, but with a legacy certainly better than her predecessor.

Second, and a fervent hope, the next casualty will be the DUP. How unedifying watching this recalcitrant, prejudiced, mediocre bunch of old cronies hold the government to ransom. Nobody, ex the Right of the Tory Party, likes them or wants them. Northern Ireland voted to remain, future Tory governments will want their revenge. They will be rightly punished at the next election if not before.

Last, the Tories’ European Research Group. Awful in their disloyalty, grandstanding, and hatred of the EU, any future leader of the Tory Party, from whatever wing, will want to distance themselves from them. If they do not, The Independent Group will flourish, fueled by Tory defections, and the Tories will be out of power for a generation, if not forever as currently constituted.

Hard to believe, but ultimately some good one way or another may come out of this awful mess.

Politically the news just gets grimmer. Here in the UK we face another chaotic week with the possibility of no deal, no government and no PM by Friday, as Theresa May forlornly throws the dice on her Withdrawal Agreement for the last (or almost the last) time. She got some movement from the EU yesterday but there is a mountain to climb as MPs put Party and personal interests before those of the country. The possibility of a catastrophic collapse in our parliamentary system over Brexit is becoming very real. Whatever happens, the cumulative damage of the past two years will take a generation to repair.

But elsewhere the news is also grim as the fall-out from a populist surge gathers pace. Take events in Hungary for example. Orban, the rampantly nationalistic premier, has curtailed a free press and promoted homophobia, xenophobia and anti-Semitism, the latter used most notably to try and run George Soros out of town. His party, Fidesz, is likely to be thrown out of the moderate centre-right European People’s Party in the European parliament only to join forces with ruling parties in Poland and Italy to create a far-right alliance.

In Poland, the Law and Justice party (somewhat of a misnomer) is trying to curtail judicial and media independence with some success. Matteo Salvini’s League party in Italy whips up anti-immigration sentiment, and in recent weeks has even shown solidarity with the Gilets jaunes in France as they oppose moderate Macron. All three of these parties in Hungary, Poland and Italy fuel prejudice in the name of populism.

In Germany, courtesy of Merkel, far-right populists are again present in mainstream politics and such politicians are never far from influence in France.

Then in the US, Trump uses barely concealed racist rhetoric to identify with his populist voter base. His America First policies pull US influence from the world stage as he embraces the likes of the new far-right Brazilian president, Bolsonaro, Kim Jong-un and Putin, but shuns the liberal democratic leaders of the EU, Canada, Australia, let alone NATO as a whole. Only his erratic behaviour and the constitution’s checks and balances keep him from inflicting more damage on America’s future, but it is an amoral presidency. In Russia, Putin’s nationalistic and murderous hold on power strengthens as he plunders the State with wholly fascist intent.

There is a real and growing threat to liberal democracy across the West. I am no longer with Matthew Parris’s recent analysis in The Times on this. We can no longer assume we can ‘muddle through’.

Which takes us to the UK, that bastion of moderation. We have Government ministers warning that failure to implement Brexit will lead to the rise of the far-right. As if this should dictate policy!! We have moderate women MPs subject to horrific online abuse and harassment by our own version of Gilets jaunes outside parliament, whilst the police looked on, initially failing to intervene. We have Tommy Robinson raising hundreds of thousands of pounds as he peddles his Islamophobic views. We have anti-Semitism rife and excused within the Labour Party. We have a Tory Party driven to the right by the ideological toxicity of the Brexit debate.

Nothing can be taken for granted anymore and moderates need to rise up. In the UK, and probably much of elsewhere, the vast majority of voters and politicians sit broadly in the centre ground, but they need to wake up and be counted. Two cheers at least for The Independent Group. It will be too late when, through complacency, we realise the liberal democratic politics of the last few decades, and the benefits it has brought, has gone.

A week on and what do we know? Very little except Labour’s Tom Watson is taking the split more seriously than Corbyn. Nine Labour MPs have left their party, eight forming a new group. Joined by three Tories, the Independent Group has legs.

But these are Labour legs. Corbyn is a disaster. Stubborn, ignorant and stupid. He is building a far left party riven with Stalinism and anti-semitism. His international policy embraces Putin and Maduro. On economics, there is no room even for moderate capitalism, which is why he dislikes the EU and its strictures on state aid. The split with his colleagues is across the board, philosophically and policy-wise.

The Independent Group is therefore a real alternative to today’s Labour Party and many more Labour MPs may join. Pro EU, a mixed economy, NATO and for social justice that accepts inequalities of outcomes providing people have an equal start in life; one day it could be a powerful threat to both Labour and the Tories: Blairite without the baggage.

Not today, however. The Conservative Party remains largely intact and will stay that way…for now. The schism amongst Tories is mainly about Brexit, and in this respect, the defection of the three Tory MPs is oddly timed. Why not wait and see what May delivers? If the Withdrawal Agreement gets over the line there is still scope to push for a second referendum during a transition period, which is what most seems to unite these three.

My feeling is the Tories will re-group post March assuming no no-deal armageddon. There is still more that unites than divides them. Widely differing views on hard and soft versions of a free market economy have always existed and been accommodated through compromise. Many MPs will also want a close, constructive relationship with the EU going forward.

Except…except…This is all on the proviso that Tory MPs free themselves from an often extremist clique and a bullying party membership, ultimately reverting back to a more non-ideological stance; moving closer to the centre ground, where winning elections and holding power are what matter. But if leaving the EU continues a further lurch to the right, with fierce in-fighting over a future relationship with Europe and purer free market economics, then all bets are off. More moderate Tory MPs will desert to the Independence Group and then it becomes an equal menace to both major parties.

How will this resolve itself? Assuming there is no implosion of the government in the coming weeks, then all eyes should focus on the Tory leadership. I detect a hardening of opinion against Theresa May and I doubt she can survive beyond 2019 regardless of the outcome on Europe. She is almost entirely friendless now, with her seemingly narrow, unimaginative, suspicious (who can blame her suspicions!) premiership alienating too many colleagues.

Time for a change. But if that wind of change comes from a direction anywhere near the European Research Group then watch the Independent Group prosper from all sides. And like today’s Labour Party, the Tories will get exactly what they deserve.

The country’s governing class is enmeshed and transfixed by Brexit and there is little bandwidth for any other policy initiatives. That is a problem. Some of society’s imbalances which contributed to Brexit in the first place are getting worse.

Austerity was a necessary initial response to collapsing public finances post the crash of 2008 but few predicted the impact of quantitative easing (essentially pumping money into the financial system) that accompanied it.

Fuelled by cheap cash, surging house prices and stock markets over the past decade have resulted in huge disparities of wealth. If you own property and shares you have done well. If you rent, rely heavily on benefits and public services, and are employed in the public sector, you have not. Austerity was always the ‘boiling frog’ of politics. Its real impact, initially almost imperceptible, gradually gets worse. The pain after 9 years, as cut lands on cut, is now excruciating.

Theresa May rashly said the age of austerity was over starting with an ill-thought out cash bung at the NHS, but it is not. In England and Wales, 40% of councils anticipate further cuts to front-line services rising to 71% regarding social care services. Central government funding cuts to local authorities since 2010/11 have now reached nearly 50% according to the National Audit Office. Short term cash boosts to paper over the cracks have made little impact.

Zero or sub-inflation rises in public sector remuneration are now also really biting. Teachers’ pay, for example, to name just one public service, is down nearly 10% in real terms causing recruitment shortages across the board.

And then a perfect storm of higher utility bills has just arrived. This week it was announced energy bills could rise by as much as 10% for 15 million households along with council tax rises of 5%. Again according to the National Audit Office, an estimated 8.3 million people in the UK are unable to pay off debts or household bills.

Our economy is one of the largest in the world, but pressures are building. Growth is grinding to a halt as Brexit bites and inequalities and the north/south divide continue to expand as austerity bites. Whilst record levels of employment are a real success of this government, many jobs are poorly paid, long hours service roles. Productivity and business investment are weak and our relatively small manufacturing base could be further eviscerated by leaving Europe.

What is most needed, as a minimum, are constructive, well thought out reforms to social care (green paper currently stalled due to lack of ministerial time), housing and taxation (subjects for another blog) from a talented, moderate Tory government. To coin a phrase, however, that sounds like a reference to ‘unicorn politics’; the involvement of a beautiful, magical beast who happens to take an interest in politics but doesn’t actually exist…

Society’s imbalances, will be made worse by leaving Europe but the government is unable or unwilling to alleviate the pain. Just like austerity, it feels Brexit is another of those ‘boiling frog’ policies. The consequences will only dawn on many of us (just ask Sunderland…) when it is too late.

A fascinating poll in last week’s FT confirms what many of us know as we argue vociferously with friends, family and colleagues over Brexit. Britons now identify much more strongly with Remain or Leave tribes than with political parties. 77% very or fairly strongly identify with views on Europe compared to just 35% who identify on the same basis with political parties.

The split on Brexit is brought home by attitudes towards a second vote. Remain voters want another referendum regardless of how such a vote is framed. Leavers’ views vary with only 10% wanting one (versus 2/3rds of Remainers) if there is an option presented of remaining in the EU.

A second referendum would split the country and probably solve nothing anyway. Although all five polls this year show Remain in the lead, the vote is close and anything could happen in a referendum campaign. Why would there be more honesty in campaigning second time around?

So that really leaves us with the PM’s Withdrawal Agreement. Disliked by everyone, it is just about reluctantly acceptable as a compromise for everyone if all else fails. This is what is happening. There is the small issue of the EU agreeing to re-negotiate the Irish backstop…umm…but this week it still feels the most likely outcome.

So the real divide in British politics today is Europe and it will continue post almost any version of a Withdrawal Agreement. The two sides are increasingly clearly defined; moderate, socially liberal, mixed economy supporters, not threatened by the EU, versus the hard right and left who may disagree economically but are socially more illiberal on the whole and see the EU as either a capitalist or socialist conspiracy. Incredible, and well done Corbyn, for his contribution to this impasse when he could have achieved so much more.

So it seems now is the time for a new centrist party. Step up the David Millibands, Yvette Coopers, Chris Leslies and Chuka Umunnas of this world. Today’s Labour Party has abandoned you and you represent a settled consensus across much of the country based on today’s political dividing lines. You never know, if Tory madness continues, many moderate Tories may join you too.

That just leaves an anti EU alliance on the other side of the debate arguing among themselves about whether a pure socialist or free market nirvana awaits us in a post EU future. It sounds like political hell and is probably what they deserve.

Those who know Theresa May understand the Tory Party runs through her like words in a stick of rock. Her whole life has been devoted to Tory activism. Her diligence over constituency duties and campaigning is legendary. She is a Tory activist through and through.

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So to be the PM who destroys the Tory Party by splitting it down the middle in search of a Brexit solution in the so-called national interest would be anathema to her. It just won’t happen. She has a strong sense of public service and duty but to her the national interest is indivisible from the preservation of the Party she leads.

Corbyn is a socialist through and through. Socialism runs though him like words in a stick of rock. He hates the Tories with a passion and has campaigned against them (and often his own front-bench) for decades in search of a socialist nirvana. He now has the Labour Party where he wants it, for the quasi revolution he seeks. Helping the Tories on Brexit in the so-called national interest? It just won’t happen.

From Theresa May’s perspective, after the historic defeat of her Withdrawal Agreement, this is why plan B looks like plan A. It is also why Corbyn won’t participate in cross-party talks.

The Commons may take Brexit out of these party leaders’ hands but there is a problem here too. There is probably no cross-party Commons majority for any other solution to leaving the EU such as the ‘Norway’ option or a fully fledged embrace of the customs union. A majority probably exists to block a no-deal but that is it.

A General Election may well result in stalemate. Even if the Tories were lucky enough to win it, they would still be split. Labour’s own backbenchers are adrift of Corbyn’s team and it is unlikely a Labour majority would be large enough to sort this.

A People’s Vote may just deliver the same result or a marginal vote the other way leaving an even more divided nation. There is genuine concern about civil unrest.

The odds are still that Theresa May will deliver a Withdrawal Agreement at the very last minute shorn of the Backstop clause in its current form. Certainly, Brexit supporting Tories are beginning to realise this is their best hope.

Only an extension of Article 50 and a wholesale shake out of the leaders of both parties will lead to more radical solutions. My guess is that this won’t happen unless the country plunges fully into a constitutional crisis.

For all the criticism, there is still only one game in town currently and that is the Withdrawal Agreement. In delivering this, national interest and Party interest are one and the same…at least from Theresa May’s perspective…

Not much was surprising yesterday. The vote against May’s Brexit deal was a little larger than expected but only because none of the well-known number of Tories opposed to it and her leadership chose to abstain.

Corbyn’s opportunistic call for a no confidence vote was also no surprise.

The EU has also been clear that they won’t amend the Withdrawal Agreement in the face of such a defeat for the Government.

In response to all these familiar positions there was little change in the stance of the Labour or Conservative front benches. No wonder the public despair of politicians. No cross-party statesmanship from either May or Corbyn was on display to broker a compromise at a time of national crisis. We are drifting to disaster.

So the way forward?:

• Parliament should take control and May (still incredibly the only viable PM) should take instructions to look at amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement that could command a majority, such as staying within a customs union.
• The Government should probably ask for a delay in leaving the EU or even revoke Article 50 until a cross party solution of how to leave the EU can be found. Perilous for May but she now has little option.
• A new solution should then be put to Parliament and approved. If this can’t be done, a second ‘People’s Vote’ will be needed on the solution along with a decision to stay or leave the EU with no deal.
• If the Government won’t do this or the Opposition can’t compromise, time for a new leader (s). This will almost certainly bring the date of a General Election forward.

What a mess. The damage caused by Brexit is worse than even hardened Remainers predicted. The issue has split the country for a generation and most likely will speed our decline. Today, there are no silver linings to increasingly stormy clouds.

Brexit is such a mess. Anything could happen in the next few days/weeks so at this moment in time speculation about the future is pretty fruitless. Of course that won’t deter me or anybody else from trying… but it does today ahead of the Big Vote tomorrow.

Instead, it is worth focusing on a corner of government in the Ministry of Justice where, over the weekend, the highly able prisons minister, Rory Stewart, has just proposed a radical reform of sentencing. He is considering banning prison sentences of less than 6 months, an initiative long advocated by the Prison Reform Trust.

If the judicial system is a measure of how civilised a society we are then we don’t score well. It is failing across the board.

We have the highest imprisonment rate in Western Europe. In the last 30 years, the prison population has risen 70% to over 80,000 and yet there is no link between the size of the prison population and levels of crime according to the National Audit Office.

According to the Prison Reform Trust, prisons are in a mess. Rates of self-harm are at the highest level ever recorded and assaults on staff have tripled in the last 5 years. 46% of prisons are rated ‘of concern’ or ‘of serious concern’ by HM Prisons and Probation Service, also the highest on record. 81 out of 120 prisons in England and Wales are overcrowded yet the number of frontline operational prison staff was cut by 26% from 2010 to 2017. The government is only just starting to reverse this disastrous decline.

For those on either side of the sentencing debate, cutting short term sentences makes sense. Two thirds of prisoners given custodial sentences of less than 12 months reoffend and community sentences are proven to reduce reoffending more effectively, particularly for those who have a large number of previous offences or people with mental health problems. Yet their use has halved in only a decade. Crazy.

If this reform was implemented, it would reduce the current prison population by 3,500. More than half of the 86,000 offenders sentenced to immediate custody in England and Wales in 2017 were handed sentences of less than 6 months. The cumulative impact of such reform would be enormous.

If this initiative is implemented, it could transform our approach to managing the justice system with real benefits to society, saving money at the same time. Well done Rory Stewart for starting the debate. There is some good being done, albeit hidden, in a generally dire government transfixed by Brexit.

This time last year, eight predictions were made; five were correct, two were wrong and there was one score draw. Not bad versus the ‘paid commentariat’ so I venture out boldly to guide readers through 2019…umm…

Recapping predictions for 2018 provides a good insight into what might happen this year:

There was no General Election and Theresa May held on; the Liberal Democrats went nowhere; Angela Merkel announced her departure; Trump did better than expected in the midterms and, Mueller notwithstanding, looks set for an eight year term; the global economy remained strong. Only the Tories deteriorating electorally and Macron shining were wrong. Iran was the score draw.

So how does that leave us for 2019? Almost anything could happen, but here we go…

• Brexit. The self-harm will continue. The PM will get some version of her deal through the Commons (not first time round) as there is no consensus on any other solution. She will fight against an extension of the 29th March Brexit date as it imperils her premiership; but be prepared for a nail-biting finish. There will be no second referendum.
• Theresa May.  She will stay on as PM due to her resilience and the fact there is no immediate alternative. Last year’s leadership vote bought her 12 months. She will refresh her Cabinet and there will be no General Election. The Tories realise they need a stronger leader to reboot our relationship with the EU during the transition period so prepare for an earlier change than she wants in 2020.
• The Opposition. Labour will go nowhere under Corbyn who will stay on as leader. He and his front bench lack any credibility and have mostly played Brexit very badly. The public see this which is why incredibly the Tories continue to stay up in the polls, regardless of their behaviour.
• A new party? The Liberal Democrats are dead in the water. It is now or never for a new centrist party which will be launched in 2019. Despite a glittering start, it will not succeed in such a bi-polar political environment. We will end up with the politicians we deserve!
• Europe. In Germany, Merkel will go earlier than expected, possibly this year but certainly not in 2021 as she hopes. In a similar vein to May, there will be a time sooner rather than later when her party will have had more than enough. In France, Macron will never be popular but will recover his poise and stick broadly to his course. Despite his clumsy arrogance, my does Europe need him.
• North America. The Mueller enquiry will damage Trump but not fatally. He will not be impeached and stays on course for eight years…unless the Democrats pull their act together and nominate a credible opponent (Beto O’Rourke?)
• Economics. China will wobble economically but will manage to stay on course. Its hegemony will continue to grow buoyed by a fairly stable global economy (not necessarily in stock market terms) and Trump continuing to withdraw the US from the world stage.

There you go. Not exciting, not much fun, but plenty for commentators to get their teeth into. For those dismayed by UK politics in particular, or who are simply not interested, it may be time to take up a new hobby or, even better, move abroad…say…continental Europe?

Happy New Year!