‘Bumboys’, ‘piccaninnies’, ‘watermelon smiles’, ‘letter boxes’…We have had them all from the Tories’ runaway favourite for leader, Boris Johnson. A man who has been sacked twice for lying to his Editor and Party Leader. Other allegations swirl around him too. It won’t matter. The Tories are desperate and bored. He will overwhelm Hunt and be crowned PM in July. The only saving grace is that many of us will be out of the country on holiday then.

So it is time to look forward and see what a Johnson administration will be like. He will almost certainly assemble many of his London Mayoral team around him to manage the detail. Even his strongest supporters admit this is not his forte.

But in parliament:

• First the Cabinet. He will include several of the contenders. Almost certainly Hancock, Hunt and Javid. Gove and Leadsom’s futures are more uncertain. Rumours have it of Raab for Attorney General but not Truss for Chancellor. The quixotic but highly talented Rory Steward has ruled himself out of working with Johnson. One hopes his time will come although I doubt it. Grayling and probably Gauke will be gone too. It will be interesting to see what happens to Rudd and Rees-Mogg. Johnson will be keen to establish his One Nation credentials (ex-Brexit) which favours the former and hardly the latter!
• Lower ranks. After that there will be talented backers from the ‘next generation’ moving up the ministerial ranks such as James Cleverly, Kwasi Kwarteng, Rishi Sunak, Kit Malthouse to name but a few. Look at his earliest backers and then cross-check with the website ConservativeHome. As good a guide as any.

On policy:

• Brexit. The common view is that the EU will make minor concessions on the backstop. Just enough for Johnson to claim victory in the context of an extended transition period. If not, we are heading for a No Deal exit from the EU. It is ultimately difficult to see Parliament blocking this even with the help of the Speaker and would renegade Remain Tories bring down their own government in a no-confidence vote? We shall see.
• Economics. Forget those tax cuts for the better off, downgraded to an aspiration already. Infrastructure spending and a review of HS2 are on the cards but the latter will be kept on in some form. A bright committed thinker on social care (Hunt?) will make this a priority and there will be more money for schools.
• Foreign policy. A glamorous trip to the US beckons. Trump and the alt.right generally will embrace Johnson. Will Johnson be conventional, wary of a backlash back home? One doubts he cares and his ego and careless language may get the better of him. His Foreign Secretary will have his/her work cut out for them.

On the Opposition:

• Labour. Prime Ministers can be lucky and Johnson couldn’t be luckier. Despite no overall majority, he has Corbyn and a clumsily hostile SNP to deal with. When will Labour get their act together? Not this side of a General Election. They are hopelessly split and hopelessly led. One person to watch is Tom Watson, long predicted to be the next leader of the Labour Party by smart Guardian journalists, but wishful thinking I suspect.
• Liberal Democrats. Can you name their leadership contenders? I doubt it! Looking dreary at the moment but early days. If they get a sound economic policy in place then, in addition to their stance on Brexit, they may garner many moderate Tory voters. If polling suggests they could win 30/40/50 seats very difficult to see the Tories winning an overall majority in a future General Election, even if they do see off the Brexit Party, and an informal Lib/Lab alliance beckons. Hardly inspiring.

Almost nothing can touch Johnson at this stage. He is our Teflon Trump. But the role of PM is huge and cannot be filled by expert advisers alone. Many Tory MPs backing him know full well a Johnson administration may blow up within 12 months but just want him to deliver Brexit and Farage’s head on a plate first. A quick post Brexit General Election beckons and certainly one before 2022 if the Tories soar in the polls. Unlikely.

Can politics be entertaining and depressing at the same time? We are about to find out…

So now we have it…The Top Ten…the cream of Britain’s political class…the solution to all the country’s ills. Really? This is the widest choice of candidates Tories have ever been presented with for the leadership (the previous record was five candidates), but it is also the shallowest.

The main problem, however, is the ‘selectorate’. 313 Tory MPs, terrified of a Corbyn victory in the face of the Brexit Party, are panicking and will vote for any ‘prophet’ who will save them from Farage, regardless of the longer-term consequences. Then there is the Tory membership; allegedly 160,000. Mostly older, right-wing and almost uniformly anti-EU voters, they have often in the past and will, now, vote on the basis of Europe, not talent or wider electoral appeal. Think Hague and Ian Duncan-Smith. They will probably deliver to the wider public a new Brexit Party in all but name, anchoring the perception of a move to the populist right for a generation.

And, with the exception of Rory Stewart, if we explore these candidates in more depth, you find that, ex Brexit, their core appeal is also to squander the hard-won gains from austerity. We are still running a deficit, there are real problems with social care and the delivery of local authority services generally, in infrastructure spending, particularly in the North. But billions are pledged elsewhere with the most ludicrous proposal coming from the front runner, Boris Johnson. Tax cuts for those earning over £50,000 (ex Scotland of course), spending the Brexit dividend before he has any idea how to access it.

And that takes us to Boris Johnson in more detail…What does it say about a candidate who is kept out of the limelight for fear of making a gaffe and ruining his chances of leadership? A man who is loose with the truth, flirts with the alt.right and has little attention to detail. Of course, he is socially liberal (he would have to be…) which doesn’t chime with many of his supporters, so he is staying quiet on this too. And he is charismatic. A rare quality in today’s Tories. But that is not enough. Being Prime Minister is serious, grinding business as many occupants not really up to it have found out and we certainly don’t need a Donald Trump Mark II. The best put down came from Max Hastings who, as editor, employed Johnson at The Telegraph. To paraphrase him, he thinks Johnson sees himself as a Winston Churchill figure when in reality he is more Steve Coogan.

On Brexit generally, the best question to wannabee leaders came from the Tory MP, Sam Gyimah, who didn’t make it to the final 10. He will vote for the person who has a plan B when the EU doesn’t re-open negotiations and there is no No-Deal majority in Parliament. We haven’t had a definitive answer from most candidates yet, least of all Johnson.

On his performance to date, the next leader should be Rory Stewart but the final battle will probably be between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson with the latter the hot favourite. Unlike many of the candidates in their past, we will be forced to watch this unedifying contest without the benefits of chemical stimuli…

As the free world commemorates the 75th anniversary of D-Day, one of the most memorable speeches came from the Queen at the US State Banquet on Monday night. Standing next to President Trump, it was as close as any leader got to even gently chastising him about his priorities. The Tory leadership wannabees in particular had their heads too much up his firmament to try and influence his opinions. It is worth quoting the relevant paragraph from Her Majesty in full:

“As we face the new challenges of the Twenty First Century, the anniversary of D-Day reminds us of all that our countries have achieved together. After the shared sacrifices of the Second World War, Britain and the United States worked with other allies to build an assembly of international institutions, to ensure that the horrors of conflict would never be repeated. While the world has changed, we are forever mindful of the original purpose of these structures: nations working together to safeguard a hard won peace.”

So, which are these international institutions? The UN, NATO and the EU, all loathed by Trump and his administration in favour of dictators who ignore international norms such as Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un. You can add to ‘institutions’ those international agreements relating to climate change and Iran too.

Of course, it is sensible to ask countries to pay their fair share on defence, to challenge corruption in the UN and challenge restrictive trade practices within the EU, but not pull the rug from under them. The alternative is a world of competing individual nation states, each focused solely on putting their own interests first. That route leads to hostilities and war. This is the philosophy of the Alt. Right, of Trump and, as we understand it, partly the philosophy of the likely next leader of the Conservative Party in the UK.

Nearly all the major issues facing the global community are cross-border ones, whether it is economic, climate or defence related. As the technological revolution gains speed, so globalisation speeds up too. It is not going to go away and Trump’s many erratic America First impulses are no solution.

Size also matters. Here in the UK, for example, do we really think, on our own, we can influence trade when we are a little over 3% of global exports? Do we really think we can influence the global economy when we are 2.4% of global GDP? Do we really think we can influence defence related matters when we have less than 100,000 soldiers and four nuclear submarines reliant on US technology? These international institutions matter, not least the EU.

There is one aspect, however, where size doesn’t matter, where the UK is unique. It is the presence of the Royal Family. I am not a particular royalist but watching them massage the ego of Trump whilst reminding him of the legitimacy of international institutions was quite special. It put our current crop of cringing politicians in government to shame.

The Tory Party: 185 years in existence and in democratic terms, the most successful political force in history.  It has had its moments. The Corn Laws (1846) for example, which led to some 30 years in the wilderness, but this was a matter of economic common sense in the interests of all of Britain’s people. The Tories came back with a vengeance.

It achieved this unprecedented electoral success by being a pragmatic, centre-right party, which knew that a ruthless focus on power through delivering economic progress was the only objective that mattered.

Not now. It started with Thatcher; for many years a brilliant prime minister who, love her or loathe her, made the political weather and changed the direction of the country. She was actually quite pragmatic until the last few years and in her heyday would have never got us into this intractable mess with the EU. But she left office bitter, broken partly on the back of Europe although personal style mattered too. And on Party issues, she was never as benign as she professed. She began to turn the Tory Party into an ideological grouping and the seeds of its destruction were sown. Since 1992 it has only won one election with an overall majority. This new ideological approach was electoral suicide and the evidence is, well, evident.

And today, the Tories have still not learnt and are imploding. They are a rabble. A disgrace even, with able, moderate voices being extinguished by ideology from an increasingly unrepresentative, (of the electorate), shrinking membership generally, and the ERG wing in particular. It is the latter who have brought down May. Her many mistakes were dominated by ever believing that pandering to them would work. It needed more nimble, charismatic leadership to win. She needed to face up to her European extremists, in the process building alliances out of persuasion rather than necessity. Hey ho, we are where we are.

The EU elections were a well signalled disaster for the Tories. Farage, so much more able than most of his opponents, built a slick one issue campaign (take note remainers). He siphoned votes across the spectrum but particularly from the Tories and he did well. Hats off to him.

The Tories response? A further move to the right. Incredible. Probably at this stage Johnson or Raab, assuming they don’t blow up, will win the leadership, certainly if one of them reaches the final round of membership voting. They will pursue a no deal Brexit to head off Farage.

It will be the end of the Tory Party if either of them win. No liberal posturing on other policies will save it. This party was not built, and never succeeded, on the foundations of one issue. Its famed pragmatism would have led it to turn away from any act of national economic self-harm. And, in the past, even with its hostility to the EU, the Tory Party would never have voted for Johnson. He is a dangerous dissembler who carelessly flirts with the Alt. Right and its many dubious travellers, promoting divisive, jingoistic nationalism. The wider electorate know this.

On its current course, moderates will leave and by default the Tories will become a populist right-wing party, which will not win another election outright again. The centre-right/ centre/ centre-left (courtesy of Corbyn) ground is wide open and ripe for taking by a new generation of more talented politicians. If it wasn’t for the initial pain, you could almost feel optimistic!

At a client meeting the other day, a Chief Executive pointed me to a book by Joan Williams: ‘White Working Class; Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’. It is a must for understanding the often complex reasons for the rise of populism in America and more widely. If you read it, get it, and are in a position to help implement solutions, you are on your way to defeating the populist surge we are joylessly experiencing.

Brexit…

But first, Brexit. I know…I know…I wasn’t going to mention it but Theresa May’s speech about a ‘big, bold gesture’ yesterday needs acknowledging. It was dead in the water before she sat down…All positions on Brexit have now become more entrenched – just watch the EU elections. Tories will not agree to a vote on a second referendum, Labour see no advantage in rescuing Theresa May. Her premiership is dead in the water. She will be replaced as PM probably by a hard Brexiteer. Europe will tell them to bog off as they seek a re-negotiated exit. There will likely be an inconclusive General Election and only a second People’s Vote will lay the issue to rest. Much more pain to come.

Back to the book…

Anyway, more positively, back to Joan Williams’ book. She debunks myths about Trump supporters based on strong evidence. They are not poor. Only 12% of his voters had annual incomes below $30k. The white working class who supported him have reasonable incomes and are hard working, blue collar participants who feel patronised by wealthy professionals and want it to stop. Their moral traits of drive and rigorous self discipline are admired more widely across the working class. Trump did better with some minorities than ever expected.

The ‘professional elite’ also like hard work of course but have time for being ‘disruptive’. They avoid the ‘traditional’ of character, morality and family values which are perceived as a key expression of class disadvantage. It sounds like culture wars. Oh dear.

Interestingly, according to Williams, the white working class admire the rich and don’t mind their tax cuts. Brash, wealthy celebrities epitomise the fantasy of being wildly rich whilst avoiding the ‘two-facedness’ of professionals. Think Trump. Many might not like his character but they don’t see him as hypocritical. Umm…

At the other end of the scale Trump supporters dislike those subsidies paid to the feckless very poor who have chaotic lives. Disproportionately black it can lead to racism but this needs to be carefully calibrated with hidden racism elsewhere and the attitudes of more successful ethnic minorities. Impatience spills into affirmative action towards women, some ethnic minorities and the LGBTQ community generally. It is not that the white working class are simply fired up with prejudice. They just feel ignored or insulted by disproportionate attention being focused elsewhere as their economic fortunes ‘tank’. And that, of course, leads us to globalisation, the death of traditional industries at the heart of Trump’s supporters and the popularity of trade wars.

Whether you like them or not, the attitudes of Trump’s supporters need to be understood and dealt with. A Trump supporter described it as ‘We’re voting with our middle finger’. Perfectly put but we don’t want it to continue!

So the solutions lie in re-training for those displaced by globalisation and that does not mean college degrees either but practical mid-level skills training seemingly looked down upon by the governing class. It means careful explaining of where government intervention works. It means compromise on the vital liberal issues of LGBTQ rights, race, religion and gender so they don’t crowd out tackling the economic decline and consequent downward mobility of the white working class. It is not an either, or, but has felt like it. Democrats can’t win alone on an alliance of the professional, mainly white class and minorities, particularly with the Electoral College constituted as it is. But the white working class should not have been disproportionately ignored anyway. Empathy, more evenly spread, is required.

Many won’t like this book and its classifications but it is well researched and written by a social liberal not a conservative. It deserves consideration.

Turning to the UK, some of the analogies don’t work such as America’s focus on religion and intense dislike of ‘big government’. But many do. UK regions outside the South East have felt ignored and patronised. The professions ‘look down’ on those who voted Brexit but standards of living have fallen relatively for many and they don’t feel globalisation or a remote, often arrogant EU, has benefited them. Immigration has increased the sense of threat. Training has too often focused on college degrees and not on those mid-level skills. Then there is housing…The list is long but understanding the cultural conflicts is key to changing attitudes and providing longer term policy solutions.

Just like in America, compromises can be made in all the priorities policy makers face, starting with a genuine understanding of the concerns of those outside the ‘professions’ generally and the South East in particular. We are all reasonable people and whilst Brexit might happen, if we do this, the populists can be repelled.

There you go. A more optimistic end to a blog at last!

The trauma of Brexit will go on endlessly; the major parties are split, the country is split. There is no way out and anyone who tells you otherwise is being untruthful.

These are the reasons:

1. There is no majority in the Commons for any Brexit solution; not a no-deal, Withdrawal Agreement, remain, Norway option, customs union, second vote or anything else.
2. It is unlikely the talks between Labour and the Conservatives will amount to anything. Most Tories will not accept even a temporary customs union, a deal on workers’ rights which ties the hand of future governments, let alone a second vote. Labour are wary of a second vote and are opposed to anything that doesn’t involve customs alignment and ultimately access to a single market. Labour also have no reason to bail Theresa May out.
3. There will be no imminent General Election. Electoral suicide for the Tories and DUP and may not even be attractive to Labour.
4. A new Tory leader, certainly inevitable this year (Theresa May I am afraid is finished), will not change any of the above calculations although their lack of legitimacy may bring an election closer. A Brexiteer will sow more division, a Remainer (that will be a Remainer who has changed their mind and campaigns for a relatively clean Brexit…) is unlikely to win but, if so, will also split the Tories. Neither option will create a majority solution in the Commons.
5. The revival of the Liberal Democrats in the local elections is promising but still largely tactical. Change UK or TIGs (who now cares?) have blown it.
6. In the European elections, despite polls suggesting a small Remain majority, Farage will triumph mostly at the expense of the Tories with the Remain parties ruining their chances since they can’t even form a Remain alliance for one pointless election.

We have a zombie government, a discredited political class and a divided public discourse which is corroding society. The country will be poorer for leaving the EU. We are already suffering a skills drain as EU citizens abandon the UK or are less attracted to come here.

Business is suffering in the black hole of not knowing when, if, or how we will leave the EU. Take the property sector, for example. Who would undertake major property deals in this vacuum?

Ignore growth figures and employment statistics. It is about the opportunity cost of what could have been had we not had this disruption.

Generational damage to this country by reckless politicians and our destructive decision to leave the EU is manifest everywhere. We need a new government, a General Election and a second vote. Actually no. We need a new political class of modern, outward facing leaders who are free from current obsessions and put the country before personal advancement.

You can see why many have had enough. That is probably 10 years away…

‘It’s the economy stupid’…remember that phrase? It’s more relevant today than ever and the failure of capitalism to adapt post the 2007/08 crash, and its economic consequences, is a key reason for the rise of populism and the political crises we currently face.

An excellent article in the FT last week, ‘Why American CEOs are worried about capitalism‘ highlighted the growing concern of leading business people about the future of the current economic system. You can see why. Inequalities of wealth are rising. The gap between CEOs’ remuneration and their workforce is expanding rapidly to pre-crash levels – a multiple north of 300x. Obscene.

Stock markets and corporate profits are at new highs but a Republican ‘man of the people’ President has cut corporation tax, shovelling more money into the pockets of the rich.

In a Gallup poll last year 51% of American 18-29 year olds had positive views of socialism, similar to previous polls. But the proportion with a similar view of capitalism has fallen from 68% in 2010 to 45% now.

The article makes reference to fear starting to compete with greed. Do captains of industry worry about a revolution? Possibly but it is a bit ‘rich’ taking lectures from the likes of Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the epitome of aggressive free market capitalism, when he apparently paid himself $30 million last year.

Closer to home, inequalities of wealth are rising despite a more progressive taxation policy. This has been written about in these blogs before but if you own a house in the UK and have investments, the last dozen years or so have been good to you. If you work in the public sector, rely on rented accommodation and state benefits, they have not.

All this inequality, fuelled by social media of course, has led to voters’ anger and rightly so. But the solution so far has been populism. Oh dear.

Politicians speaking directly to the less well off, blaming globalisation, corruption and seeking solutions in economic nationalism are tempting siren voices. You can’t blame ordinary voters for supporting this analysis since everyone else has mostly failed to implement reforms that address core inequalities.

But the temptations should be resisted. Actions such as leaving the EU or the election of Trump and Italian and Eastern European populist governments for example will not improve the lives of voters. They will ultimately make people poorer, and at the expense of weaker democratic structures.

Responsible governments and, equally important, business, need to wake up, reduce disparities of wealth and work in the interests of all stakeholders. Global corporations need to pay their taxes! More long-term investment in infrastructure, social housing, health and well-being generally, and green technology in particular, to improve the environment we live in, is required. There are some good initiatives outside government from supporting organisations such as Focusing Capital on the Long Term (FCLTGlobal) and Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism to make our economic systems work better but these are barely scratching the surface.

This is an argument for the survival of mixed economy capitalism not a replacement of it, supported by democratic, transparent institutions. Our economic structures need to get back to their more inclusive past otherwise the lurch to populism will continue to the detriment of all of us, not least those most economically vulnerable.

Oh dear… Moderates Never Learn. Returning from a vacation in Eastern Europe where politics is starting to look positively benign in comparison to the UK, I see Farage is on the rampage.

And why not; he has a simple message. The EU is bad, British politics is broken, the 52% have been betrayed. Simple, powerful messages to an electorate who is fed up: fed up of Brexit, fed up of austerity, fed up of nothing getting done, fed up of feckless politicians. The list is endless and they can fight back with Farage.

In the other camps, chaos reigns. The Tories want to ditch their leader and literally loathe each other. Their MPs, even moderate Brexiteers, are increasingly at odds with each other and their membership, some facing deselection. Labour are torn between a customs union solution, Remain and a People’s Vote. Two thirds of Labour supporters voted Remain but this is not reflected by the same proportion of constituencies. They are as split as the Tories, with moderates also facing deselection for multitudinous reasons, but can hide it somewhat as they are not in government.

But the real problem, as ever in this polarised world, lies with the centre ground. Change UK or is it The Independent Group (?), vie with the Liberal Democrats, the Greens (probably on Europe only) and what few moderates there are left in the major parties, for the votes of where most of the public lies. And they are failing.

No single message. No single message even on Europe. They hand-wring intelligently on the nuances of policy whilst the public can’t discern what on earth they stand for. An article from Chuka Umunna in yesterday’s Independent talks intelligently ‘as a pluralist who believes tribalism is overrated’ on why a single Remain party can’t be formed, why candidates from similar minded parties can’t stand aside for each other, etc etc.

They are principled and refreshing; but will lose and lose heavily. In this era of populism the public currently has no patience for cross-party, nuanced messages. Farage will triumph if the EU elections go ahead, Labour will be weakened and the Tories flattened. As for the middle ground…I am reminded of that picture of a black hole…light sucked into oblivion by the force of gravity.

The centre ground is where the country should be governed from. ‘Muscular moderatism’ should triumph. But it won’t as currently presented. We better hope these European elections don’t happen.

A trip to Eastern Europe beckons so there will be no blogging for a while. Post Easter, anything could have happened on Brexit so it is extremely dangerous to make any predictions. But where angels fear to tread…

The UK Government has asked the EU for an extension of our departure date to 30th June (previously already asked for and rejected) but Donald Tusk jumped the gun by floating a ‘flextension’. Yes, Brexit is even changing our language…The EU will potentially offer us a year-long extension which can be cut short if a deal is reached. Makes sense since nobody has faith in Theresa May, or indeed her successor, achieving anything soon and the timetable can’t keep being re-visited. My feeling is that the EU, as usual, will win this minor skirmish.

European parliamentary elections in the UK look more likely which will be a disaster for all. Brexiteer support will flourish in the UK and it could infect European politics more widely. What a proverbial car crash.

That takes us to the May/Corbyn talks. Wouldn’t you like to be a fly on that wall! The chances of these succeeding are slim as Theresa May would have to accept a customs union and possibly a People’s Vote, splitting her Party in the process. This has always been an anathema to her although she might simply have had enough. There are also dangers for Corbyn. If an agreement was reached he would then own the departure settlement which has perilous electoral implications for Labour.

That takes us full circle to the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, shock, horror, it is still not dead and maybe the only chance to leave the EU soon. Surely, even hard Brexiteers get this. Umm…

So there you are. No more to add except, at least for now, Happy Groundhog Day!

No Brexit commentary today. By Wednesday, we could have a Withdrawal Agreement, Theresa May’s resignation, a softer Brexit option, the implosion of the Government, more pointers to a General Election, a second referendum…Time to wait a little.

So let’s look elsewhere, at politics overseas. There has actually been, or there are about to be, some seismic changes.

North America

Trump survived the Mueller inquiry intact as expected…sadly. He is too stupid and disorgansised to have actually colluded with Russia even if they helped him win his election. This leaves the Democrats high and dry. They are disappointing at best. They failed to manage expectations around the inquiry, see the answer to Trump as moving further to the Left and have a myriad of mediocre candidates (ex Beto O’Rourke?) for President in 2020. The leading two Democrat figures are Biden and Sanders aged 76 and 77 respectively, the former now caught up in a ‘me-too’ moment of indiscretion. Oh dear, Trump is on course for a second term.

In Canada, the previously popular Trudeau is fighting for his political life after a corruption scandal. He is alleged to have influenced a bribery inquiry involving the engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin, a company helpful to him in Quebec. He has lost his top adviser and two cabinet ministers so far and really should resign if he is seen to have led a cover-up. Like many charismatic centre-left politicians, he should pay the price for his hypocrisy. However, liberal democratic politics can ill afford such mistakes.

Populism 2, Liberalism 0.

Middle East

Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, is to be indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, but with his formidable nationalistic, fear-mongering campaigning skills, is possibly on course to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in Israel’s elections on 9th April. He has ratcheted up anti-Arab rhetoric, claiming Israel is for Jews alone, and is pursuing a successful dirty tricks campaign against his lead opponent, the less experienced but highly respected former leader of the Israeli army, Benny Gantz. If the Trump-loving (it is mutual) Netanyahu wins, he will insist all charges are dropped against him and there will be no Middle East peace initiatives for a generation.

Populism 0 (1), Liberalism 0.

South America

The homophobic, nationalist, possibly corrupt (even though elected to combat corruption!), Trump-loving President Bolsonaro of Brazil, advised by a fan of Steve Bannon, wanted to commemorate the country’s former military regime with celebrations at garrisons nationwide yesterday.  He recently stated that ‘democracy and freedom only exist’ insofar as the armed forces wanted it. Only the intervention of the generals, now seen as the main force of social cohesion following Bolsonaro’s election, restrained him saying ‘that time has ended’.

Populism 1, Liberalism 0, Generals 1

Eastern Europe

In the Ukraine, a comedian (not knowingly a Trump supporter) has just won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections, second round 21st April. Playing a teacher who is unexpectedly elected president in a TV series, with no political experience, he is seen as an antidote to corruption and low standards of living. We shall see.

In Turkey, Erdogan faced crucial local elections yesterday. Terrified his party, the AKP, could lose control of Ankara and Istanbul (looks like they have) due to widespread voter discontent, he sought to make the elections about national security and to quote the FT; ‘survival in the face of threats from a dark alliance of external and internal foes’. Food prices have been suppressed, the lira has been artificially boosted and debt is running out of control. An economic crisis is imminent. 

Populism 2, Liberalism 0 so far

Lastly Brunei…

Their new laws come into effect this week.which will punish adultery and homosexual sex with death by stoning. Quite Game of Thrones.

Populism 10, Liberalism 0

Total: Populism 15 (16), Liberalism 0, Generals 1. And that is before we know about the final chapters of Brexit…