The Tory Party: 185 years in existence and in democratic terms, the most successful political force in history.  It has had its moments. The Corn Laws (1846) for example, which led to some 30 years in the wilderness, but this was a matter of economic common sense in the interests of all of Britain’s people. The Tories came back with a vengeance.

It achieved this unprecedented electoral success by being a pragmatic, centre-right party, which knew that a ruthless focus on power through delivering economic progress was the only objective that mattered.

Not now. It started with Thatcher; for many years a brilliant prime minister who, love her or loathe her, made the political weather and changed the direction of the country. She was actually quite pragmatic until the last few years and in her heyday would have never got us into this intractable mess with the EU. But she left office bitter, broken partly on the back of Europe although personal style mattered too. And on Party issues, she was never as benign as she professed. She began to turn the Tory Party into an ideological grouping and the seeds of its destruction were sown. Since 1992 it has only won one election with an overall majority. This new ideological approach was electoral suicide and the evidence is, well, evident.

And today, the Tories have still not learnt and are imploding. They are a rabble. A disgrace even, with able, moderate voices being extinguished by ideology from an increasingly unrepresentative, (of the electorate), shrinking membership generally, and the ERG wing in particular. It is the latter who have brought down May. Her many mistakes were dominated by ever believing that pandering to them would work. It needed more nimble, charismatic leadership to win. She needed to face up to her European extremists, in the process building alliances out of persuasion rather than necessity. Hey ho, we are where we are.

The EU elections were a well signalled disaster for the Tories. Farage, so much more able than most of his opponents, built a slick one issue campaign (take note remainers). He siphoned votes across the spectrum but particularly from the Tories and he did well. Hats off to him.

The Tories response? A further move to the right. Incredible. Probably at this stage Johnson or Raab, assuming they don’t blow up, will win the leadership, certainly if one of them reaches the final round of membership voting. They will pursue a no deal Brexit to head off Farage.

It will be the end of the Tory Party if either of them win. No liberal posturing on other policies will save it. This party was not built, and never succeeded, on the foundations of one issue. Its famed pragmatism would have led it to turn away from any act of national economic self-harm. And, in the past, even with its hostility to the EU, the Tory Party would never have voted for Johnson. He is a dangerous dissembler who carelessly flirts with the Alt. Right and its many dubious travellers, promoting divisive, jingoistic nationalism. The wider electorate know this.

On its current course, moderates will leave and by default the Tories will become a populist right-wing party, which will not win another election outright again. The centre-right/ centre/ centre-left (courtesy of Corbyn) ground is wide open and ripe for taking by a new generation of more talented politicians. If it wasn’t for the initial pain, you could almost feel optimistic!

At a client meeting the other day, a Chief Executive pointed me to a book by Joan Williams: ‘White Working Class; Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’. It is a must for understanding the often complex reasons for the rise of populism in America and more widely. If you read it, get it, and are in a position to help implement solutions, you are on your way to defeating the populist surge we are joylessly experiencing.

Brexit…

But first, Brexit. I know…I know…I wasn’t going to mention it but Theresa May’s speech about a ‘big, bold gesture’ yesterday needs acknowledging. It was dead in the water before she sat down…All positions on Brexit have now become more entrenched – just watch the EU elections. Tories will not agree to a vote on a second referendum, Labour see no advantage in rescuing Theresa May. Her premiership is dead in the water. She will be replaced as PM probably by a hard Brexiteer. Europe will tell them to bog off as they seek a re-negotiated exit. There will likely be an inconclusive General Election and only a second People’s Vote will lay the issue to rest. Much more pain to come.

Back to the book…

Anyway, more positively, back to Joan Williams’ book. She debunks myths about Trump supporters based on strong evidence. They are not poor. Only 12% of his voters had annual incomes below $30k. The white working class who supported him have reasonable incomes and are hard working, blue collar participants who feel patronised by wealthy professionals and want it to stop. Their moral traits of drive and rigorous self discipline are admired more widely across the working class. Trump did better with some minorities than ever expected.

The ‘professional elite’ also like hard work of course but have time for being ‘disruptive’. They avoid the ‘traditional’ of character, morality and family values which are perceived as a key expression of class disadvantage. It sounds like culture wars. Oh dear.

Interestingly, according to Williams, the white working class admire the rich and don’t mind their tax cuts. Brash, wealthy celebrities epitomise the fantasy of being wildly rich whilst avoiding the ‘two-facedness’ of professionals. Think Trump. Many might not like his character but they don’t see him as hypocritical. Umm…

At the other end of the scale Trump supporters dislike those subsidies paid to the feckless very poor who have chaotic lives. Disproportionately black it can lead to racism but this needs to be carefully calibrated with hidden racism elsewhere and the attitudes of more successful ethnic minorities. Impatience spills into affirmative action towards women, some ethnic minorities and the LGBTQ community generally. It is not that the white working class are simply fired up with prejudice. They just feel ignored or insulted by disproportionate attention being focused elsewhere as their economic fortunes ‘tank’. And that, of course, leads us to globalisation, the death of traditional industries at the heart of Trump’s supporters and the popularity of trade wars.

Whether you like them or not, the attitudes of Trump’s supporters need to be understood and dealt with. A Trump supporter described it as ‘We’re voting with our middle finger’. Perfectly put but we don’t want it to continue!

So the solutions lie in re-training for those displaced by globalisation and that does not mean college degrees either but practical mid-level skills training seemingly looked down upon by the governing class. It means careful explaining of where government intervention works. It means compromise on the vital liberal issues of LGBTQ rights, race, religion and gender so they don’t crowd out tackling the economic decline and consequent downward mobility of the white working class. It is not an either, or, but has felt like it. Democrats can’t win alone on an alliance of the professional, mainly white class and minorities, particularly with the Electoral College constituted as it is. But the white working class should not have been disproportionately ignored anyway. Empathy, more evenly spread, is required.

Many won’t like this book and its classifications but it is well researched and written by a social liberal not a conservative. It deserves consideration.

Turning to the UK, some of the analogies don’t work such as America’s focus on religion and intense dislike of ‘big government’. But many do. UK regions outside the South East have felt ignored and patronised. The professions ‘look down’ on those who voted Brexit but standards of living have fallen relatively for many and they don’t feel globalisation or a remote, often arrogant EU, has benefited them. Immigration has increased the sense of threat. Training has too often focused on college degrees and not on those mid-level skills. Then there is housing…The list is long but understanding the cultural conflicts is key to changing attitudes and providing longer term policy solutions.

Just like in America, compromises can be made in all the priorities policy makers face, starting with a genuine understanding of the concerns of those outside the ‘professions’ generally and the South East in particular. We are all reasonable people and whilst Brexit might happen, if we do this, the populists can be repelled.

There you go. A more optimistic end to a blog at last!

The trauma of Brexit will go on endlessly; the major parties are split, the country is split. There is no way out and anyone who tells you otherwise is being untruthful.

These are the reasons:

1. There is no majority in the Commons for any Brexit solution; not a no-deal, Withdrawal Agreement, remain, Norway option, customs union, second vote or anything else.
2. It is unlikely the talks between Labour and the Conservatives will amount to anything. Most Tories will not accept even a temporary customs union, a deal on workers’ rights which ties the hand of future governments, let alone a second vote. Labour are wary of a second vote and are opposed to anything that doesn’t involve customs alignment and ultimately access to a single market. Labour also have no reason to bail Theresa May out.
3. There will be no imminent General Election. Electoral suicide for the Tories and DUP and may not even be attractive to Labour.
4. A new Tory leader, certainly inevitable this year (Theresa May I am afraid is finished), will not change any of the above calculations although their lack of legitimacy may bring an election closer. A Brexiteer will sow more division, a Remainer (that will be a Remainer who has changed their mind and campaigns for a relatively clean Brexit…) is unlikely to win but, if so, will also split the Tories. Neither option will create a majority solution in the Commons.
5. The revival of the Liberal Democrats in the local elections is promising but still largely tactical. Change UK or TIGs (who now cares?) have blown it.
6. In the European elections, despite polls suggesting a small Remain majority, Farage will triumph mostly at the expense of the Tories with the Remain parties ruining their chances since they can’t even form a Remain alliance for one pointless election.

We have a zombie government, a discredited political class and a divided public discourse which is corroding society. The country will be poorer for leaving the EU. We are already suffering a skills drain as EU citizens abandon the UK or are less attracted to come here.

Business is suffering in the black hole of not knowing when, if, or how we will leave the EU. Take the property sector, for example. Who would undertake major property deals in this vacuum?

Ignore growth figures and employment statistics. It is about the opportunity cost of what could have been had we not had this disruption.

Generational damage to this country by reckless politicians and our destructive decision to leave the EU is manifest everywhere. We need a new government, a General Election and a second vote. Actually no. We need a new political class of modern, outward facing leaders who are free from current obsessions and put the country before personal advancement.

You can see why many have had enough. That is probably 10 years away…

‘It’s the economy stupid’…remember that phrase? It’s more relevant today than ever and the failure of capitalism to adapt post the 2007/08 crash, and its economic consequences, is a key reason for the rise of populism and the political crises we currently face.

An excellent article in the FT last week, ‘Why American CEOs are worried about capitalism‘ highlighted the growing concern of leading business people about the future of the current economic system. You can see why. Inequalities of wealth are rising. The gap between CEOs’ remuneration and their workforce is expanding rapidly to pre-crash levels – a multiple north of 300x. Obscene.

Stock markets and corporate profits are at new highs but a Republican ‘man of the people’ President has cut corporation tax, shovelling more money into the pockets of the rich.

In a Gallup poll last year 51% of American 18-29 year olds had positive views of socialism, similar to previous polls. But the proportion with a similar view of capitalism has fallen from 68% in 2010 to 45% now.

The article makes reference to fear starting to compete with greed. Do captains of industry worry about a revolution? Possibly but it is a bit ‘rich’ taking lectures from the likes of Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, the epitome of aggressive free market capitalism, when he apparently paid himself $30 million last year.

Closer to home, inequalities of wealth are rising despite a more progressive taxation policy. This has been written about in these blogs before but if you own a house in the UK and have investments, the last dozen years or so have been good to you. If you work in the public sector, rely on rented accommodation and state benefits, they have not.

All this inequality, fuelled by social media of course, has led to voters’ anger and rightly so. But the solution so far has been populism. Oh dear.

Politicians speaking directly to the less well off, blaming globalisation, corruption and seeking solutions in economic nationalism are tempting siren voices. You can’t blame ordinary voters for supporting this analysis since everyone else has mostly failed to implement reforms that address core inequalities.

But the temptations should be resisted. Actions such as leaving the EU or the election of Trump and Italian and Eastern European populist governments for example will not improve the lives of voters. They will ultimately make people poorer, and at the expense of weaker democratic structures.

Responsible governments and, equally important, business, need to wake up, reduce disparities of wealth and work in the interests of all stakeholders. Global corporations need to pay their taxes! More long-term investment in infrastructure, social housing, health and well-being generally, and green technology in particular, to improve the environment we live in, is required. There are some good initiatives outside government from supporting organisations such as Focusing Capital on the Long Term (FCLTGlobal) and Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism to make our economic systems work better but these are barely scratching the surface.

This is an argument for the survival of mixed economy capitalism not a replacement of it, supported by democratic, transparent institutions. Our economic structures need to get back to their more inclusive past otherwise the lurch to populism will continue to the detriment of all of us, not least those most economically vulnerable.

Oh dear… Moderates Never Learn. Returning from a vacation in Eastern Europe where politics is starting to look positively benign in comparison to the UK, I see Farage is on the rampage.

And why not; he has a simple message. The EU is bad, British politics is broken, the 52% have been betrayed. Simple, powerful messages to an electorate who is fed up: fed up of Brexit, fed up of austerity, fed up of nothing getting done, fed up of feckless politicians. The list is endless and they can fight back with Farage.

In the other camps, chaos reigns. The Tories want to ditch their leader and literally loathe each other. Their MPs, even moderate Brexiteers, are increasingly at odds with each other and their membership, some facing deselection. Labour are torn between a customs union solution, Remain and a People’s Vote. Two thirds of Labour supporters voted Remain but this is not reflected by the same proportion of constituencies. They are as split as the Tories, with moderates also facing deselection for multitudinous reasons, but can hide it somewhat as they are not in government.

But the real problem, as ever in this polarised world, lies with the centre ground. Change UK or is it The Independent Group (?), vie with the Liberal Democrats, the Greens (probably on Europe only) and what few moderates there are left in the major parties, for the votes of where most of the public lies. And they are failing.

No single message. No single message even on Europe. They hand-wring intelligently on the nuances of policy whilst the public can’t discern what on earth they stand for. An article from Chuka Umunna in yesterday’s Independent talks intelligently ‘as a pluralist who believes tribalism is overrated’ on why a single Remain party can’t be formed, why candidates from similar minded parties can’t stand aside for each other, etc etc.

They are principled and refreshing; but will lose and lose heavily. In this era of populism the public currently has no patience for cross-party, nuanced messages. Farage will triumph if the EU elections go ahead, Labour will be weakened and the Tories flattened. As for the middle ground…I am reminded of that picture of a black hole…light sucked into oblivion by the force of gravity.

The centre ground is where the country should be governed from. ‘Muscular moderatism’ should triumph. But it won’t as currently presented. We better hope these European elections don’t happen.

A trip to Eastern Europe beckons so there will be no blogging for a while. Post Easter, anything could have happened on Brexit so it is extremely dangerous to make any predictions. But where angels fear to tread…

The UK Government has asked the EU for an extension of our departure date to 30th June (previously already asked for and rejected) but Donald Tusk jumped the gun by floating a ‘flextension’. Yes, Brexit is even changing our language…The EU will potentially offer us a year-long extension which can be cut short if a deal is reached. Makes sense since nobody has faith in Theresa May, or indeed her successor, achieving anything soon and the timetable can’t keep being re-visited. My feeling is that the EU, as usual, will win this minor skirmish.

European parliamentary elections in the UK look more likely which will be a disaster for all. Brexiteer support will flourish in the UK and it could infect European politics more widely. What a proverbial car crash.

That takes us to the May/Corbyn talks. Wouldn’t you like to be a fly on that wall! The chances of these succeeding are slim as Theresa May would have to accept a customs union and possibly a People’s Vote, splitting her Party in the process. This has always been an anathema to her although she might simply have had enough. There are also dangers for Corbyn. If an agreement was reached he would then own the departure settlement which has perilous electoral implications for Labour.

That takes us full circle to the Withdrawal Agreement. Yes, shock, horror, it is still not dead and maybe the only chance to leave the EU soon. Surely, even hard Brexiteers get this. Umm…

So there you are. No more to add except, at least for now, Happy Groundhog Day!

No Brexit commentary today. By Wednesday, we could have a Withdrawal Agreement, Theresa May’s resignation, a softer Brexit option, the implosion of the Government, more pointers to a General Election, a second referendum…Time to wait a little.

So let’s look elsewhere, at politics overseas. There has actually been, or there are about to be, some seismic changes.

North America

Trump survived the Mueller inquiry intact as expected…sadly. He is too stupid and disorgansised to have actually colluded with Russia even if they helped him win his election. This leaves the Democrats high and dry. They are disappointing at best. They failed to manage expectations around the inquiry, see the answer to Trump as moving further to the Left and have a myriad of mediocre candidates (ex Beto O’Rourke?) for President in 2020. The leading two Democrat figures are Biden and Sanders aged 76 and 77 respectively, the former now caught up in a ‘me-too’ moment of indiscretion. Oh dear, Trump is on course for a second term.

In Canada, the previously popular Trudeau is fighting for his political life after a corruption scandal. He is alleged to have influenced a bribery inquiry involving the engineering and construction firm SNC-Lavalin, a company helpful to him in Quebec. He has lost his top adviser and two cabinet ministers so far and really should resign if he is seen to have led a cover-up. Like many charismatic centre-left politicians, he should pay the price for his hypocrisy. However, liberal democratic politics can ill afford such mistakes.

Populism 2, Liberalism 0.

Middle East

Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, is to be indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, but with his formidable nationalistic, fear-mongering campaigning skills, is possibly on course to snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat in Israel’s elections on 9th April. He has ratcheted up anti-Arab rhetoric, claiming Israel is for Jews alone, and is pursuing a successful dirty tricks campaign against his lead opponent, the less experienced but highly respected former leader of the Israeli army, Benny Gantz. If the Trump-loving (it is mutual) Netanyahu wins, he will insist all charges are dropped against him and there will be no Middle East peace initiatives for a generation.

Populism 0 (1), Liberalism 0.

South America

The homophobic, nationalist, possibly corrupt (even though elected to combat corruption!), Trump-loving President Bolsonaro of Brazil, advised by a fan of Steve Bannon, wanted to commemorate the country’s former military regime with celebrations at garrisons nationwide yesterday.  He recently stated that ‘democracy and freedom only exist’ insofar as the armed forces wanted it. Only the intervention of the generals, now seen as the main force of social cohesion following Bolsonaro’s election, restrained him saying ‘that time has ended’.

Populism 1, Liberalism 0, Generals 1

Eastern Europe

In the Ukraine, a comedian (not knowingly a Trump supporter) has just won the first round of Ukraine’s presidential elections, second round 21st April. Playing a teacher who is unexpectedly elected president in a TV series, with no political experience, he is seen as an antidote to corruption and low standards of living. We shall see.

In Turkey, Erdogan faced crucial local elections yesterday. Terrified his party, the AKP, could lose control of Ankara and Istanbul (looks like they have) due to widespread voter discontent, he sought to make the elections about national security and to quote the FT; ‘survival in the face of threats from a dark alliance of external and internal foes’. Food prices have been suppressed, the lira has been artificially boosted and debt is running out of control. An economic crisis is imminent. 

Populism 2, Liberalism 0 so far

Lastly Brunei…

Their new laws come into effect this week.which will punish adultery and homosexual sex with death by stoning. Quite Game of Thrones.

Populism 10, Liberalism 0

Total: Populism 15 (16), Liberalism 0, Generals 1. And that is before we know about the final chapters of Brexit…

Incredibly, yes incredibly, Theresa May may still get her Withdrawal Agreement through, although the window of opportunity is shrinking by the hour. An hour is the new measurement in politics by the way; because too much happens in a day, let alone a week…

However, at least 20 Tory MPs currently aided and abetted by the DUP, may hold out regardless, unwilling to sacrifice any compromise on methods of EU departure, including the PM’s guaranteed resignation, on the altar of a pure Brexit. Wow.

And, as a reminder, think who those DUP allies are. A bunch of illiberal, old-fashioned, pork-barrel driven politicians opposed to abortion and same sex marriage; everything modern Tories should abhor. A potential nail in the coffin for the Tories’ longer term survival, to be re-visited at a later date.

Tomorrow we have a series of indicative votes on other options of how, if at all, to leave the EU. The Government lost three further highly-able, moderate ministers last night who voted for this measure. There will not be enough ministers to cover the workings of government at this rate.

And there are real dangers in these indicative votes. The potential to tear the Tories apart is huge with leading government figures voting all over the place. Imagine Philip Hammond voting for a single market/customs union option versus many of his colleagues for example…It might be the second longer term nail in the Tories’ coffin, which is why May, so anxious to keep her beloved Party together, was keen to avoid indicative votes, let alone because it also takes parliamentary control away from the executive.

Incredibly (see above), there is a small chance that if Parliament is split fairly evenly between various options, then the Withdrawal Agreement splutters into life. But this is hard to rely on because of the Kamikazi 20.

The Tories are almost fatally split particularly because of those die-hard Brexit purists. If the Cabinet divides across various indicative vote options, if TM can’t get her Withdrawal Agreement through and resigns; if we crash out of the EU without a deal, precipitating chaos, or if Brexit is delayed beyond May then a General Election is the only solution left, probably followed by a second referendum.

The Tories will pay the price and rightly so. The Kamikazi 20, possibly supported by the DUP, will take the lead in being responsible for causing this unwanted General Election. If it happens, it may end the hegemony of Conservative-led administrations for at least a generation, if not longer, as politics re-aligns. As for The Independent Group, they are not even a Party yet, but things are looking increasingly bright for them. Good!

What a period of Mayhem. There was no majority for Theresa May’s deal second time around and no majority for no-deal. Parliament is gridlocked and poisonous, the clock is running down and Brexiteers see their chance of ever leaving the EU diminish by the day.

That is why May is likely to get her deal through at the very, very last minute. Unloved though it is, it is Brexiteers’ only guarantee of ever leaving the EU in the foreseeable future.

And May’s deal should really please everyone ex the side-show of the back-stop. The UK leaves the EU with 21 months to forge a new trading relationship. It allows Brexiteers to negotiate a clean break. It allows Remainers a chance to reverse the decision one way or another, possibly encompassing a ‘Norway option’ during this time.

If we can bear to look forward, the next issue is who are the casualties of all this chaos?

First, the Prime Minister. Theresa May made many initial mistakes with her red lines and triggering Article 50 which all unravelled when she lost her majority in an unnecessary General Election. But since then she has been tenacious; admirable in her dedication to getting a deal done which she believes delivers on the referendum result (whatever people understood by their vote), and which rescues her reputation.

The problem is that her suspicious, distrusting, unfriendly, often wooden approach to her premiership has allowed her enemies to multiply. There has been no bridge/coalition building. No reaching out to make new friends in seeking a deal. No sense that she can think laterally and ‘out of the box’ to create new solutions. Her rigid focus has been her strength but ultimately her fatal weakness.

Many thought she would soldier on post March 29th for quite a while, drifting closer to the next election with perhaps a wild hope she could defy the odds and fight in 2022. No longer. She has been wounded too many times; her colleagues are sick of her. From all sides of the EU debate, her Party wants a new leader and a fresh approach to the next chapter with Europe and, indeed, domestic policies generally. She will go before she is pushed, ahead of November. She will have to find a life outside politics, but with a legacy certainly better than her predecessor.

Second, and a fervent hope, the next casualty will be the DUP. How unedifying watching this recalcitrant, prejudiced, mediocre bunch of old cronies hold the government to ransom. Nobody, ex the Right of the Tory Party, likes them or wants them. Northern Ireland voted to remain, future Tory governments will want their revenge. They will be rightly punished at the next election if not before.

Last, the Tories’ European Research Group. Awful in their disloyalty, grandstanding, and hatred of the EU, any future leader of the Tory Party, from whatever wing, will want to distance themselves from them. If they do not, The Independent Group will flourish, fueled by Tory defections, and the Tories will be out of power for a generation, if not forever as currently constituted.

Hard to believe, but ultimately some good one way or another may come out of this awful mess.

Politically the news just gets grimmer. Here in the UK we face another chaotic week with the possibility of no deal, no government and no PM by Friday, as Theresa May forlornly throws the dice on her Withdrawal Agreement for the last (or almost the last) time. She got some movement from the EU yesterday but there is a mountain to climb as MPs put Party and personal interests before those of the country. The possibility of a catastrophic collapse in our parliamentary system over Brexit is becoming very real. Whatever happens, the cumulative damage of the past two years will take a generation to repair.

But elsewhere the news is also grim as the fall-out from a populist surge gathers pace. Take events in Hungary for example. Orban, the rampantly nationalistic premier, has curtailed a free press and promoted homophobia, xenophobia and anti-Semitism, the latter used most notably to try and run George Soros out of town. His party, Fidesz, is likely to be thrown out of the moderate centre-right European People’s Party in the European parliament only to join forces with ruling parties in Poland and Italy to create a far-right alliance.

In Poland, the Law and Justice party (somewhat of a misnomer) is trying to curtail judicial and media independence with some success. Matteo Salvini’s League party in Italy whips up anti-immigration sentiment, and in recent weeks has even shown solidarity with the Gilets jaunes in France as they oppose moderate Macron. All three of these parties in Hungary, Poland and Italy fuel prejudice in the name of populism.

In Germany, courtesy of Merkel, far-right populists are again present in mainstream politics and such politicians are never far from influence in France.

Then in the US, Trump uses barely concealed racist rhetoric to identify with his populist voter base. His America First policies pull US influence from the world stage as he embraces the likes of the new far-right Brazilian president, Bolsonaro, Kim Jong-un and Putin, but shuns the liberal democratic leaders of the EU, Canada, Australia, let alone NATO as a whole. Only his erratic behaviour and the constitution’s checks and balances keep him from inflicting more damage on America’s future, but it is an amoral presidency. In Russia, Putin’s nationalistic and murderous hold on power strengthens as he plunders the State with wholly fascist intent.

There is a real and growing threat to liberal democracy across the West. I am no longer with Matthew Parris’s recent analysis in The Times on this. We can no longer assume we can ‘muddle through’.

Which takes us to the UK, that bastion of moderation. We have Government ministers warning that failure to implement Brexit will lead to the rise of the far-right. As if this should dictate policy!! We have moderate women MPs subject to horrific online abuse and harassment by our own version of Gilets jaunes outside parliament, whilst the police looked on, initially failing to intervene. We have Tommy Robinson raising hundreds of thousands of pounds as he peddles his Islamophobic views. We have anti-Semitism rife and excused within the Labour Party. We have a Tory Party driven to the right by the ideological toxicity of the Brexit debate.

Nothing can be taken for granted anymore and moderates need to rise up. In the UK, and probably much of elsewhere, the vast majority of voters and politicians sit broadly in the centre ground, but they need to wake up and be counted. Two cheers at least for The Independent Group. It will be too late when, through complacency, we realise the liberal democratic politics of the last few decades, and the benefits it has brought, has gone.