This victory is not a personal mandate for Johnson. His reputation as an untrustworthy rascal remains intact despite his handsome majority. But the Tories were always favourites to win comfortably as they successfully united the Brexit vote.

Labour’s equivocal approach to this issue, threatening to vote against their own deal in a second referendum, brought confusion and frustration in equal measures. The LibDem’s revoke article 50 approach was simply too harsh in the end. ‘Get Brexit Done’ was a simplistic and effective message. There will be a time when voters realise leaving the EU is not that simple and all their ills are not down to EU membership but that is for another time.

But actually, this wasn’t the Brexit election but the Corbyn election. What really did for Labour was Corbyn’s extremism; his voting record, his stubborn support of hopeless left-wing causes and hopeless left-wing colleagues. The electorate are not stupid and, across the North in particular, they rejected his Islington world view of life. And John McDonnell is almost equally to blame. The rash of spending promises, with the possibility of an inept Government taking control of the heights of the economy, was simply too much even for struggling voters. They knew its effect would be to create greater poverty down the line. Most defeated Labour candidates seem to confirm that ultimately it was Corbyn not Brexit which defeated them.

And what of the LibDems? The scale of their failure confirmed it wasn’t a Brexit election. Why they ever agreed to a December election nobody knows. Pure hubris. Johnson was always going to win against Corbyn simply because Corbyn was Corbyn. Watching Nicola Sturgeon celebrate Swinson’s defeat must be gut wrenching since the SNP lured the LibDems into joining them for a Christmas run at the polls. 12th December was certainly festive for the SNP.

So, what now? Almost certainly 10 years of Tory government. There is simply nobody else. The centre/centre left will need to start again. Tweaking the Labour Party a little via a new mediocre leader (incredibly Corbyn wants to hang on to next April to help the hard Left’s leadership candidate get elected) or the LibDems treating their self-inflicted wounds with sticking plaster is not enough. These two parties are dead in the water. A new Party free of its own history is the answer. That will take more self-awareness than shown to date and a lot more time.

Johnson will genuinely try and repay his northern voters. Austerity is over and he will be fairly radical in moving the focus of his administration. He will be very tough on the EU until he realises ultimately, they won’t budge and it will damage the economy significantly. At least he is free of the ERG. He will run an economically liberal, US centric government but it will also be socially conservative. There are no votes to be had in the new Tory constituencies for a soft approach to immigration and law and order issues, for example, whatever Johnson’s instincts.

The UK will be a harsher country as the tone of politics moves to the Right along with some of the Government’s actions. The Union is under threat with nationalists now in a majority in Northern Ireland and totally dominant in Scotland. The relief of getting Brexit done will soon be tempered by economic realities.

Yet it will be a generation before Remainers have another say on the EU and their focus now needs to be on rebuilding the centre ground of politics. A genuinely new Opposition party must be the focus of next year. It will be worth the effort. The electorate will tire of the Tories in the end.

And, finally… promises, promises… the last blog of the year will be relentlessly upbeat and possibly Christmassy…

Neither the Tories nor Labour deserve to win this General Election. They have dissembled and over-promised throughout their campaigns leaving a sorry choice for the electorate.

Let’s start with the Tories. The likely and even comfortable winners of this election. The campaign has gone according to plan, with one exception. Personally, Johnson is a weakened figure. His popularity as Mayor of London is long gone. In focus groups he is closely associated with the word ‘liar’. He has bumbled his way through the last few weeks; but his charm has evaporated. Whether it is avoiding Andrew Neil, ignoring a picture of a young boy on a hospital floor, inventing 50,000 new nurses when 19,000 are existing ones, claiming there will be no trade barrier between Northern Ireland and the mainland when leaked documents show otherwise, or promising to ‘Get Brexit Done’ when it simply isn’t that easy, he has faced incredulous hostility throughout. At the end of the campaign he still compares favourably with the dire Jeremy Corbyn; but is less popular than Theresa May.

Specifically, on Brexit, his claim is a shocking untruth. His Withdrawal Agreement hands the initiative to the EU, since he has promised (umm…) not to extend the deadline beyond the end of 2020. The EU will run negotiations down to the wire and we will be faced with a no-deal Brexit, huge compromises, or an extension by then. All this will be followed by years of further negotiations. If Johnson gets a huge majority he can, I guess, shaft the right-wing ERG and/or the DUP (twice over…). If it is a small majority who knows. And will Johnson, with a bruised ego and a (temporarily suspended) reputation for lack of focus, soldier on?

What is certain is that if there is no Tory majority, what little love there is among Tory MPs for Johnson, will disappear very quickly.

And then to Labour…Marxist, hopeless, anti-Semitic even. Their extremism has thrown this election away. Corbyn looks and sounds tired; but it is the sheer extravagance of their manifesto which destroys any semblance of consensus capitalism. This will do for them in the end. It should be their 1997; a tired Tory Party, riven by Europe, swept away by a rejuvenated Labour Party, 20% ahead in the polls. But it won’t be. With the LibDem collapse hardening Labour’s vote, and after a decade of austerity and a struggling NHS, they may do better than expected but not well enough. They should have walked it.

Finally, the LibDems. Mistakes have been made but they have also been unlucky. It is the old ‘standing in the middle of the road…run over from both directions’ analogy. The UK really does need to find a route back to centre-ground politics.

So how is this done? By voting tactically in every constituency since neither Labour or the Tories are fit to govern on their own. They have moved too far to the extremes. A hung parliament would force the Tories to move to the centre, assuming they can overcome UKIP infiltration. Labour will stay hard Left for a while since Momentum’s Corbynistas hold most internal levers of power. But this can’t last forever and Labour moderates will this time have to act. Which takes us to the LibDems. They will do badly in this election but a few more seats than expected and a rise to second place in many constituencies will set them up to help a centrist resurgence.

And the benefits? Johnson and Corbyn go. Brexit is re-visited fairly with a second referendum, which is couched in terms that will heal at least some of the country’s divisions. The Union has a better chance of holding together and parties advocating compassionate, centre ground politics can prove their worth.

‘Get Brexit Done’ is a Tory myth. Corbyn’s Labour Party are extremists. The LibDems deserve to strengthen their position, even if just a little. Tactical voting is everything to get British politics back to a position of commonsense. Go forth and multiply… as they say…those constituency results which will do just that.

We are in a General Election, but you would not guess it from the actions of the Opposition.

The terrible tragedy of the terrorist attack in London had Johnson tub thumping about jailing terrorists for whole terms. Past errors, despite his Party being in government for nearly 10 years, were swept aside by the fact he is ‘ a new Prime Minister’. Where is the liberal Johnson now as he seeks political advantage on law and order issues with the dire Priti Patel as a support act? Sadly, good politics though…

Johnson’s team has also played clever by refusing an interview with Andrew Neil on BBC, not taking part in a climate change debate on Channel 4 and not publishing a report on Russian influence in UK elections. Why would you when none of these actions are remotely helpful to you as the front-runner? They rightly guess the electorate don’t care or won’t do by 12th December, despite the hand wringing of liberal commentators.

Meanwhile, Corbyn’s nuanced response of treating terrorists on a case by case basis is sensible stuff except he has alleged form on sympathising with certain types of terrorists… It doesn’t appeal to socially illiberal ‘right wing’ Labour voters and, oh dear, we are in the middle of a General Election campaign if he hadn’t forgotten. He has handed more votes to the Tories. Sadly, bad politics…

Then, Labour are just waking up to the confusion of a myriad of spending promises which they are now trying to simplify. Whilst they have been successful on pushing the NHS, the sheer scale of initiatives and the cost of them is spooking floating voters. Ironically, their one area of success has been winning back Remain voters from the LibDems despite a somewhat neutral message. Why is this? Because for moderates, there is a growing panic about a Tory landslide, and they see Labour as the best block to this. How depressing.

And, as the election proceeds, where is Farage? A busted flush as his core message and even some of his candidates get absorbed by the Tories. Watch very carefully what he receives as his reward after this election for walking away from Tory held seats. A peerage is too obvious but something sexy on the global stage via Trump’s friends is a real possibility.

And, lastly, Jo Swinson? Another busted flush but she and her strategy have been treated far too harshly. She has performed solidly in her first election, even in front of Andrew Neil. (take note, Johnson). I rarely criticise the media, but they have done her and the LibDems generally a disservice. Treating parties by their share of MPs rather their share of polls in key televised debates needs reviewing as it simply perpetuates and exaggerates the deeply unfair consequences of a first past the post electoral system. But the real failure of the LibDems is unfortunately their fault.

Their mistake has not really been the harsh message of revoking Brexit but building a long term case for why you should vote for the LibDems outside this issue. This is the real problem and, with no joy, one identified by this blog earlier this year. Incredibly, they are the most fiscally conservative of the three major parties and should take credit among a sea of ridiculous, almost corrupt spending promises from Labour and the Conservatives. But they have not defined themselves clearly enough, for long enough, on broader issues. In this vacuum, it allows their history in alliance with the Tories to be used effectively against them.

Johnson looks on a roll and only two things are left to derail him now Trump’s NATO visit has ended. A last televised debate tonight and a sudden horrible realisation of what handing him a landslide victory means for a surge in the populist Right and bare faced English nationalism. I fear, as in many other countries, it will not be enough.

The election campaign grinds on with no major change in the opinion polls. You hope this is because voters have not yet ‘engaged’ but it could be because they have mostly already made up their minds. Who knows, but you want as many people to vote as possible with today being the last day to register.

Despite these fairly static opinion polls, there are trends emerging amid quite a lot of activity, which are worth taking a look at:

The Tories with a relatively smooth campaign have strengthened their position a little to c41% at the expense of the Brexit Party. Did Farage guess how damaging his half concession to the Tories would be to his credibility? Tory confidence is reflected in a fairly modest manifesto, new promise-wise, although their startling 50,000 more NHS nurses comprises 19,000 who would be persuaded not to leave in the first place. Umm…I suspect the Tories think they have it in the bag barring last minute disasters. Farage has delivered enough for them.

The Labour Party is in a hole and just keeps on digging. £83 billion of extra expenditure a year is too much for all but the most die-hard of Corbynites and then, incredibly, on Sunday they pledged another £50 billion ‘off-balance sheet’ to deal with ‘Waspi’ women over 60 caught in a pensions reform trap. They have flat-lined at c30% in the opinion polls and that is before the Chief Rabbi urges voters not to support them on the back of anti-Semitism. This is certainly Corbyn and McDonnell’s last stand and, to coin a phrase, it is ‘do or die’. Likely the latter.

The LibDems have perhaps had the hardest time. After much promise, they are flailing on c15% as they struggle to justify Revoking Article 50 (perfectly plausible initially to create distance from Labour), still seem to be getting the blame for the Tories’ austerity policies when they were in coalition with them and are struggling for airtime having been shut out of key TV debates. To cap it all, Jo Swinson, their leader, is also not the vote winning personality they thought. Unfair on her first General Election outing but who says politics is fair? They just have to hope they benefit from some smart tactical voting and at least the former Tory Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine, urged people to vote for them today.

So, as we enter the home straight, with a shockingly poor choice in front of us, we seem to be heading towards a world of Trump-ite Tory hegemony. ‘Get Brexit Done’ is the refrain even though there will be no trade deal by the end of 2020, more culture wars and a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit.

The best all the major parties deserve is a hung parliament, allowing time for Labour and the Conservatives to head back to the centre-ground and the country to re-assess Brexit and all its implications carefully. Hopefully, the electorate will engage before it is too late.

Most people would agree that this is the most important General Election in a generation. At stake is the UK’s place in the world, our future specifically within Europe, and possibly the break-up of the union.

And yet to quote Nick Watt, Political Editor of Newsnight, who is speaking at my company’s investment seminar next week: ‘…this is the dullest election ever. I am just waiting for something to happen that will make it take off’.

Why is this the case? It is because the esteem in which politicians are held has plummeted to new lows. Last night there was the first of the one to one debates between Johnson and Corbyn. This was not the moment the election took off. The standard of debate was terrible with the audience openly laughing at some of their responses. Two things struck me; Johnson’s popularity has all but vanished. He is seen as a serial liar, not to be trusted personally or politically. Corbyn, likewise, but he was never rated outside his core base in the first place.

However, the debate was a victory for Johnson. As the front runner, all he needed to do was not to screw up and as the debate was a non-score draw (nil-nil…), that was sufficient.

It was also disappointing that other parties were not included in this debate. Opinion polls suggest support for the two major parties has fallen below 70% and yet in national party terms, where were the Liberal Democrats, polling c15%? They are the only party with a definitive Remain stance on the EU and have most to lose by being starved of the oxygen of publicity.

So, let’s just summarise where we are in this election. We have had £800 billion of extra expenditure promised across the three major national parties and we haven’t even seen their manifestos yet! The Tories are losing their reputation for financial rectitude with a splurge of spending promises on the NHS, law and order and education to buy off Labour voters in Leave areas.

But it is Labour whose promises are truly eye watering. £400 billion promised on everything from re-nationalisation to more money on the NHS, free broadband and ultimately a 4 day working week. They are essentially reversing the base of mixed economy capitalism as defined by Margaret Thatcher onwards and therein lies their problem. They are seen as too extreme, too unaffordable, too incompetent. Add to that their ill-defined stance on Brexit and Brexit fatigue, and the Tories are on a home run.

The Tories, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in their currently held seats, are on c40%, Labour c29% and LibDems c15% according to the latest opinion polls. It is early days, but it is difficult to see these figures moving significantly unless there is a break-through moment and the Tories, in particular, have learnt from their catastrophic mistakes in 2017. This election, on a seat by seat basis, will be hugely unpredictable and exciting on the night but it is difficult to see the Tories not winning comfortably in the face of Corbyn’s Labour.

Yet it is worth reminding ourselves that a Tory victory will be no mandate for their brand of right-wing English nationalism and a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020. It is simply the least bad choice. More Brexit battles have yet to come and things will be just as bad as a hung parliament and further referendums. Can we all really bear to be indifferent??

It seemed an act of hubris when the LibDems and SNP handed Johnson a December election date. Drunk on their immediate ability to win more seats, they forgot that once he had his new withdrawal deal, December suited Johnson more than anybody. As long as he ran to the voters before Corbyn stood down as Labour leader, he was always in with a good chance of election victory.

There were three pieces of the jig-saw puzzle which needed to be put in place for the Tories to win. A new withdrawal deal (tick), a December election preferably on the 12th when students had headed home for Christmas (tick), and then, finally, a deal with the Brexit Party. This is now firmly a tick. I wonder what they offered Farage and his hugely controversial backer, Aaron Banks….time will tell…

The naivety and stupidity of the Opposition is now laid out for all to see. A deal between Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the LibDems won’t save them or the Remain cause. Possibly only a pact between Labour and the LibDems would but that is never going to happen. And Labour is also damaged in those marginal seats the Tories hope to win off them even though the Brexit Party is still standing. Why would any Leave voter support the Brexit Party when the latter has just signalled that the best way to achieve Brexit, at least in Tory held seats, is to support the Tories!

The Tories are now the Brexit Party in all but name and Remainers are distinctly unwelcome throughout today’s Conservative Party. Labour is firmly in the hands of Marxists. The centre ground, as represented by the LibDems, will splutter into life but nowhere near strongly enough to make a difference.

A comfortable Tory election victory may lead to the break-up of the Union both from a Scottish and Northern Irish perspective. It will mean a sharp tilt to the right in domestic and foreign policy. Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement marks only the start of how our future relationship with the EU will unfold. There are now no plans to make the UK and EU a level playing field in many areas of regulation and the way this new deal is constructed could mean a very hard Brexit indeed by end 2020.

The forces shaping British politics and indeed politics elsewhere are ones that would have been considered wholly unacceptable just a few years ago. I hope I am wrong in my immediate analysis of GE2019. It would be a small price to pay! But we seem to live in an age of extremes and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

The focus has been on Tory ideological recklessness and Labour’s hopeless confusion over Brexit.

But in doing so we have overlooked the ambitions of the LibDems and the SNP. They are politicians after all, and their hubris has just got the better of them. Believing their electoral moment has come to maximise parliamentary gains they are acquiescing to Johnson’s demand for a December election. Admittedly there may be some compromise on the date; earlier in the week of the 9th to help capture Remain leaning university students before they head home for Christmas…but it is an early General Election, nevertheless. And Labour, in supporting the move, have now been dragged into the morass.

Remain supporting parties will indeed make gains, possibly significant ones, but the real momentum is with Johnson. He has been convincing in his desire for Brexit by end October and articulate in accusing Parliament of thwarting the ‘Will of the People’. He has an attractive agenda outside Brexit, aimed at winning over frustrated Labour voters who supported Leave. He has the money, a sophisticated social media presence and the charisma to win. Most importantly of all he has Corbyn; hopeless, extreme and confused. Most moderate voters of all persuasions and none simply can’t contemplate a Corbyn led Labour government.

It is a huge gamble by Johnson of course to abandon his Withdrawal Agreement ahead of an election but he has nowhere else to go. He can’t continue to languish in government but not in power; he can’t see his Withdrawal Agreement eviscerated during weeks of parliamentary debate; he can’t pass a vote of No Confidence in himself and lose what little influence he has over parliament (Salvini in Italy learnt this too late); most importantly he can’t risk Corbyn being replaced by a moderate Labour leader.

The odds are steep but it is now or never; ‘do or die’. The Tories could lose seats in Scotland and seats in the South East. Johnson could start 30 seats further behind, betting on Labour collapsing and the Brexit Party becoming a busted flush. A tall order but not by any means impossible.

And there is one final prize if he wins the General Election. He will deliver the hardest of Brexits. In tearing up Theresa May’s agreements to match European rules and regulations in key economic areas, he could well lead the UK to a post transition exit from the EU on WTO terms only. The purity of Johnson’s approach as we become a small, deregulated, free market island floating off the coast of Europe is enough to make the hearts of the hard-right Tory European Research Group (‘ERG’) soar.

So in their ambition to gain a stronger foothold in parliament (and for the SNP, another convincing go at Independence), this is the opportunity the LibDems and the SNP with Labour’s support have today presented to the Tory government.

The upside; a humbled Tory Party who, with no overall majority, regrets the experiment of Johnson as PM, and reverts back to the centre ground as a second Referendum and General Election beckons. The downside; a rampant Johnson led Tory government which crushes the Opposition and embraces a pure approach to Brexit; Trumpite in its embrace of alternative Right characteristics and willing to risk the breakup of the Union as a price worth paying.

Not worth the gamble it seems but it will be taken later today.

Very little on Brexit this week. Anything could happen after Parliament rejected a straight yes/no motion on Johnson’s deal on Saturday, passed it as a Bill on Tuesday but not the Government’s proposed 3 day timetable. This means the UK almost certainly can’t leave the EU by end October as the ‘do or die’ Johnson promised. These are shrewd tactics by key Remainers. They can’t be blamed for blocking the deal but just want more time to scrutinize it. And what is wrong with that since it is apparently the largest piece of legislation to be presented to Parliament in 50 years?

The Government appeared distraught as scrutiny of the Bill over the coming weeks could lead to all sorts of amendments. Another messy period ahead with a Brexit election sometime before 31 January being the most likely outcome. It won’t be pretty.

But over to America where politics is equally poisonous. My trip there last week coincided with a rough time for Trump. The impeachment process over allegations of tying military aid to Ukraine with an investigation by the Ukrainian authorities into the activities of Joe Biden’s son is starting to appear genuinely threatening to Trump. Revelations came thick and fast all week. He is a man who looks under pressure. Good!

Since my return, damaging evidence continues to accumulate. The top US diplomat in Ukraine, William B. Taylor Jr., on Tuesday alleged that Trump held up vital security aid for the country until Ukraine’s leader agreed to make a public pronouncement pledging to investigate Trump’s political rivals. This is from an ‘unimpeachable’ source and is perhaps the most dramatic yet.

The Democrats have been clever in pursuing the impeachment process in private but with key parts of testimonies being leaked. It allows for no partisan grandstanding whilst the most damaging revelations become public, enraging Trump who looks impotent. A majority of voters now think Trump should be impeached. Only the Senate will save him.

But the Republicans in the Senate are outraged at Trump’s policy over Syria in abandoning the loyal Kurds to the fate of Turkey’s President Erdogan. As Turkey invaded Syria to create a ‘safe zone’ free of Kurds near their southern border, guess who embraced Erdogan. No other than President Putin, who hosted a six hour summit on how they, and other regional players, will divide control over Syria. In a victory for Putin, Russian and Turkish troops will take control of a vast swathe of Kurdish controlled northern Syria, establishing Putin as the dominant power in the region.

Admittedly, it started with errors by Obama’s administration, but Trump is now overseeing the withering of America’s influence over the Middle East at a faster pace than ever. Combined with retreating from commitments to the UN, his well-known hostility to the EU and NATO, and an embrace of dictators such as Kim Jong Un, America’s foreign policies are a disaster. The US has also ceded ground across Africa to China with the latter pumping $90 billion into the region in 2018 alone. Add that to China’s investment into its new Silk Road and America’s growing capitulation is complete.

In some ways the election of Trump is understandable by a nation which has sunk some $6 trillion into pointless Middle East wars whilst median wages back home have stagnated, and inequality of wealth has soared. But Trump is making things much worse. Pulling back from global commitments and abandoning allies, whilst back at home funnelling tax cuts to the rich, is a sure way of ceding world super-power status quicker than ever to China. Other countries will follow over time. My experience in the US was to witness a country profoundly ill at ease with itself as the consequences of Trump’s actions to those outside his immediate core base become increasingly evident.

They say politics in the UK and US are a mirror image of each other. As the UK eventually leaves the EU and the US abandons the world stage, this is true. Divisiveness rules. In the process it is making America small again and the UK even tinier on its own than it was before.

First, Brexit seems really boring and unfathomable from here so no updated views on Johnson’s mooted shabby deal until after Saturday…

I am sat in a hotel in New York watching US politics unfold on television. It is more interesting. There is no shyness about partisan broadcasting on this side of the pond. Fox News is avowedly Trumpite whilst CNN is vociferous in its support for the Democrats. In some ways it is awful but, guiltily, I have to admit it is not as stifling as the tedious ‘balance’ of the BBC.

And as the impeachment of Trump proceeds apace, at least through the House of Representatives, you are reminded that politics here is possibly even more crazily polarised than it is in the UK.

So what is happening?

First, Trump. It always has to be… He is looking genuinely rattled by the impeachment process. The evidence mounts of improper behaviour over Ukraine and even loyal Republicans are getting nervous. Trump’s ability to sell America’s interests down the river for personal advancement is resonating outside all but his core base. The Democrats don’t look quite as purely partisan in starting impeachment proceedings as they might have been. Trump also exploded in a meeting with senior Democrats yesterday including insulting Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker, to her face. They walked out and there is a sense Trump is losing the plot.

Then there is Syria. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Trump. His shocking misjudgment at selling out the Kurds by pulling out the few US troops left from northern Syria, with no apparent professional State Department advice, has shocked many Republican Senators such as the normally loyal Lindsey Graham. He needs people like these to save him from full impeachment. And, remember, the political professionals in the Republican Party really loathe Trump but have been forced to put up with him because of his grassroots popularity. They had nowhere else to go. They might now, particularly as polls are starting to turn against Trump in the uncommitted category.

However you then get the Democrats. Sadly, they are in some ways similar to Corbyn’s Labour Party in believing the solution to a move to the Right is to move to the Left. There was a debate on Tuesday amongst the leading contenders and here are a few thoughts.

Elizabeth Warren, the new left-wing frontrunner, looks somewhat vulnerable. Bernie Sanders, post heart attack, looks robust and convincing but only from a socialist perspective…Joe Biden, I feel, has lost it. When can you say in a rightly anti-ageist world that somebody is too old? I will leave it to others to decide. Who really impressed was Mayor Pete Buttigieg. A real talent but possibly not quite ready now. Very bright, moderate, calm and assured. There were other notable contributions, some bad, some good, but Trump still dominated. One feels he has to self implode to allow these mostly relative wallflowers to bloom.

So back to where we are. Groundhog Day. I wonder if Brexit will be the same…?

To paraphrase…I don’t know Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson is no Winston Churchill…

Johnson fundamentally doesn’t want an EU deal. He wants a heroic departure. Why else would he leave it so late to concoct a proposed amended withdrawal deal which ensures border controls even if they are not ‘at or near’ the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland? Why would he threaten to flout the law by refusing to contemplate remaining in the EU post 31st October as parliament dictates? Why did he try for a lengthy prorogation of parliament? Why does he choose language such as ‘surrender’ and, yesterday, in his Party Conference speech, tangentially make reference to his tangles with the Supreme Court with the words ‘age of creative litigation’?

Regardless of whether Johnson strikes a Brexit deal with the EU and enough colleagues in Westminster, the next election will still be about ‘the People versus Parliament’ with all the dangerous precedents that sets. Referenda throughout history have been used by the majority (however narrow) to subjugate the minority and it is no different now. You trash representative democracy, pay lip service to our Supreme Court and mislead the Queen. You remain unrepentant because you are a warrior; a warrior against European domination and the fashionable elites. That is the Churchillian pose of this Prime Minister. If he is allowed to get away with it, the long-term consequences are shocking. Not least if this most un-Tory of leaders is followed by a Marxist Prime Minister, who uses such precedents to even greater effect.

Johnson has nowhere else to go. His strategy, crafted by Cummings, is set in stone. It is do or die.

So, will he get away with it? Quite possibly. Labour, under the hopeless Corbyn, provides Johnson with a huge window of opportunity. The Tories, after all, despite the Brexit Party, are 11% ahead in the opinion polls. An array of populist Tory spending pledges (what happened to Tory economic prudence?) may reinforce their lead as they seek to steal Labour seats in the North. The LibDems will do well but may not match expectations with their hard Remain stance in the Brexit South West undermining prospects there.

Then we would have a truly Churchillian victory. Gulp!

However, the Tories will lose seats in Scotland after Ruth Davidson’s departure and their DUP allies may lose ground in Northern Ireland, even handing victory to Sinn Fein. They will lose several heavily Remain seats in the South East and London. And the evidence in previous elections is that Tory spending pledges and Brexit are not quite enough to peel votes from Labour in its strongholds. Finally, Farage is not going anywhere and certainly if we have not left the EU by 31st October, the Brexit Party will be rejuvenated whatever Johnson’s bluster.

On balance, only that fundamentally unwanted EU deal, or God forbid, a pact with the Brexit Party, guarantees an election victory for Johnson otherwise a hung parliament and a second referendum beckons.

Not quite so Churchillian after all.

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