The election campaign grinds on with no major change in the opinion polls. You hope this is because voters have not yet ‘engaged’ but it could be because they have mostly already made up their minds. Who knows, but you want as many people to vote as possible with today being the last day to register.

Despite these fairly static opinion polls, there are trends emerging amid quite a lot of activity, which are worth taking a look at:

The Tories with a relatively smooth campaign have strengthened their position a little to c41% at the expense of the Brexit Party. Did Farage guess how damaging his half concession to the Tories would be to his credibility? Tory confidence is reflected in a fairly modest manifesto, new promise-wise, although their startling 50,000 more NHS nurses comprises 19,000 who would be persuaded not to leave in the first place. Umm…I suspect the Tories think they have it in the bag barring last minute disasters. Farage has delivered enough for them.

The Labour Party is in a hole and just keeps on digging. £83 billion of extra expenditure a year is too much for all but the most die-hard of Corbynites and then, incredibly, on Sunday they pledged another £50 billion ‘off-balance sheet’ to deal with ‘Waspi’ women over 60 caught in a pensions reform trap. They have flat-lined at c30% in the opinion polls and that is before the Chief Rabbi urges voters not to support them on the back of anti-Semitism. This is certainly Corbyn and McDonnell’s last stand and, to coin a phrase, it is ‘do or die’. Likely the latter.

The LibDems have perhaps had the hardest time. After much promise, they are flailing on c15% as they struggle to justify Revoking Article 50 (perfectly plausible initially to create distance from Labour), still seem to be getting the blame for the Tories’ austerity policies when they were in coalition with them and are struggling for airtime having been shut out of key TV debates. To cap it all, Jo Swinson, their leader, is also not the vote winning personality they thought. Unfair on her first General Election outing but who says politics is fair? They just have to hope they benefit from some smart tactical voting and at least the former Tory Deputy Prime Minister, Michael Heseltine, urged people to vote for them today.

So, as we enter the home straight, with a shockingly poor choice in front of us, we seem to be heading towards a world of Trump-ite Tory hegemony. ‘Get Brexit Done’ is the refrain even though there will be no trade deal by the end of 2020, more culture wars and a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit.

The best all the major parties deserve is a hung parliament, allowing time for Labour and the Conservatives to head back to the centre-ground and the country to re-assess Brexit and all its implications carefully. Hopefully, the electorate will engage before it is too late.

Most people would agree that this is the most important General Election in a generation. At stake is the UK’s place in the world, our future specifically within Europe, and possibly the break-up of the union.

And yet to quote Nick Watt, Political Editor of Newsnight, who is speaking at my company’s investment seminar next week: ‘…this is the dullest election ever. I am just waiting for something to happen that will make it take off’.

Why is this the case? It is because the esteem in which politicians are held has plummeted to new lows. Last night there was the first of the one to one debates between Johnson and Corbyn. This was not the moment the election took off. The standard of debate was terrible with the audience openly laughing at some of their responses. Two things struck me; Johnson’s popularity has all but vanished. He is seen as a serial liar, not to be trusted personally or politically. Corbyn, likewise, but he was never rated outside his core base in the first place.

However, the debate was a victory for Johnson. As the front runner, all he needed to do was not to screw up and as the debate was a non-score draw (nil-nil…), that was sufficient.

It was also disappointing that other parties were not included in this debate. Opinion polls suggest support for the two major parties has fallen below 70% and yet in national party terms, where were the Liberal Democrats, polling c15%? They are the only party with a definitive Remain stance on the EU and have most to lose by being starved of the oxygen of publicity.

So, let’s just summarise where we are in this election. We have had £800 billion of extra expenditure promised across the three major national parties and we haven’t even seen their manifestos yet! The Tories are losing their reputation for financial rectitude with a splurge of spending promises on the NHS, law and order and education to buy off Labour voters in Leave areas.

But it is Labour whose promises are truly eye watering. £400 billion promised on everything from re-nationalisation to more money on the NHS, free broadband and ultimately a 4 day working week. They are essentially reversing the base of mixed economy capitalism as defined by Margaret Thatcher onwards and therein lies their problem. They are seen as too extreme, too unaffordable, too incompetent. Add to that their ill-defined stance on Brexit and Brexit fatigue, and the Tories are on a home run.

The Tories, helped by the Brexit Party standing down in their currently held seats, are on c40%, Labour c29% and LibDems c15% according to the latest opinion polls. It is early days, but it is difficult to see these figures moving significantly unless there is a break-through moment and the Tories, in particular, have learnt from their catastrophic mistakes in 2017. This election, on a seat by seat basis, will be hugely unpredictable and exciting on the night but it is difficult to see the Tories not winning comfortably in the face of Corbyn’s Labour.

Yet it is worth reminding ourselves that a Tory victory will be no mandate for their brand of right-wing English nationalism and a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020. It is simply the least bad choice. More Brexit battles have yet to come and things will be just as bad as a hung parliament and further referendums. Can we all really bear to be indifferent??

It seemed an act of hubris when the LibDems and SNP handed Johnson a December election date. Drunk on their immediate ability to win more seats, they forgot that once he had his new withdrawal deal, December suited Johnson more than anybody. As long as he ran to the voters before Corbyn stood down as Labour leader, he was always in with a good chance of election victory.

There were three pieces of the jig-saw puzzle which needed to be put in place for the Tories to win. A new withdrawal deal (tick), a December election preferably on the 12th when students had headed home for Christmas (tick), and then, finally, a deal with the Brexit Party. This is now firmly a tick. I wonder what they offered Farage and his hugely controversial backer, Aaron Banks….time will tell…

The naivety and stupidity of the Opposition is now laid out for all to see. A deal between Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the LibDems won’t save them or the Remain cause. Possibly only a pact between Labour and the LibDems would but that is never going to happen. And Labour is also damaged in those marginal seats the Tories hope to win off them even though the Brexit Party is still standing. Why would any Leave voter support the Brexit Party when the latter has just signalled that the best way to achieve Brexit, at least in Tory held seats, is to support the Tories!

The Tories are now the Brexit Party in all but name and Remainers are distinctly unwelcome throughout today’s Conservative Party. Labour is firmly in the hands of Marxists. The centre ground, as represented by the LibDems, will splutter into life but nowhere near strongly enough to make a difference.

A comfortable Tory election victory may lead to the break-up of the Union both from a Scottish and Northern Irish perspective. It will mean a sharp tilt to the right in domestic and foreign policy. Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement marks only the start of how our future relationship with the EU will unfold. There are now no plans to make the UK and EU a level playing field in many areas of regulation and the way this new deal is constructed could mean a very hard Brexit indeed by end 2020.

The forces shaping British politics and indeed politics elsewhere are ones that would have been considered wholly unacceptable just a few years ago. I hope I am wrong in my immediate analysis of GE2019. It would be a small price to pay! But we seem to live in an age of extremes and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

The focus has been on Tory ideological recklessness and Labour’s hopeless confusion over Brexit.

But in doing so we have overlooked the ambitions of the LibDems and the SNP. They are politicians after all, and their hubris has just got the better of them. Believing their electoral moment has come to maximise parliamentary gains they are acquiescing to Johnson’s demand for a December election. Admittedly there may be some compromise on the date; earlier in the week of the 9th to help capture Remain leaning university students before they head home for Christmas…but it is an early General Election, nevertheless. And Labour, in supporting the move, have now been dragged into the morass.

Remain supporting parties will indeed make gains, possibly significant ones, but the real momentum is with Johnson. He has been convincing in his desire for Brexit by end October and articulate in accusing Parliament of thwarting the ‘Will of the People’. He has an attractive agenda outside Brexit, aimed at winning over frustrated Labour voters who supported Leave. He has the money, a sophisticated social media presence and the charisma to win. Most importantly of all he has Corbyn; hopeless, extreme and confused. Most moderate voters of all persuasions and none simply can’t contemplate a Corbyn led Labour government.

It is a huge gamble by Johnson of course to abandon his Withdrawal Agreement ahead of an election but he has nowhere else to go. He can’t continue to languish in government but not in power; he can’t see his Withdrawal Agreement eviscerated during weeks of parliamentary debate; he can’t pass a vote of No Confidence in himself and lose what little influence he has over parliament (Salvini in Italy learnt this too late); most importantly he can’t risk Corbyn being replaced by a moderate Labour leader.

The odds are steep but it is now or never; ‘do or die’. The Tories could lose seats in Scotland and seats in the South East. Johnson could start 30 seats further behind, betting on Labour collapsing and the Brexit Party becoming a busted flush. A tall order but not by any means impossible.

And there is one final prize if he wins the General Election. He will deliver the hardest of Brexits. In tearing up Theresa May’s agreements to match European rules and regulations in key economic areas, he could well lead the UK to a post transition exit from the EU on WTO terms only. The purity of Johnson’s approach as we become a small, deregulated, free market island floating off the coast of Europe is enough to make the hearts of the hard-right Tory European Research Group (‘ERG’) soar.

So in their ambition to gain a stronger foothold in parliament (and for the SNP, another convincing go at Independence), this is the opportunity the LibDems and the SNP with Labour’s support have today presented to the Tory government.

The upside; a humbled Tory Party who, with no overall majority, regrets the experiment of Johnson as PM, and reverts back to the centre ground as a second Referendum and General Election beckons. The downside; a rampant Johnson led Tory government which crushes the Opposition and embraces a pure approach to Brexit; Trumpite in its embrace of alternative Right characteristics and willing to risk the breakup of the Union as a price worth paying.

Not worth the gamble it seems but it will be taken later today.

Very little on Brexit this week. Anything could happen after Parliament rejected a straight yes/no motion on Johnson’s deal on Saturday, passed it as a Bill on Tuesday but not the Government’s proposed 3 day timetable. This means the UK almost certainly can’t leave the EU by end October as the ‘do or die’ Johnson promised. These are shrewd tactics by key Remainers. They can’t be blamed for blocking the deal but just want more time to scrutinize it. And what is wrong with that since it is apparently the largest piece of legislation to be presented to Parliament in 50 years?

The Government appeared distraught as scrutiny of the Bill over the coming weeks could lead to all sorts of amendments. Another messy period ahead with a Brexit election sometime before 31 January being the most likely outcome. It won’t be pretty.

But over to America where politics is equally poisonous. My trip there last week coincided with a rough time for Trump. The impeachment process over allegations of tying military aid to Ukraine with an investigation by the Ukrainian authorities into the activities of Joe Biden’s son is starting to appear genuinely threatening to Trump. Revelations came thick and fast all week. He is a man who looks under pressure. Good!

Since my return, damaging evidence continues to accumulate. The top US diplomat in Ukraine, William B. Taylor Jr., on Tuesday alleged that Trump held up vital security aid for the country until Ukraine’s leader agreed to make a public pronouncement pledging to investigate Trump’s political rivals. This is from an ‘unimpeachable’ source and is perhaps the most dramatic yet.

The Democrats have been clever in pursuing the impeachment process in private but with key parts of testimonies being leaked. It allows for no partisan grandstanding whilst the most damaging revelations become public, enraging Trump who looks impotent. A majority of voters now think Trump should be impeached. Only the Senate will save him.

But the Republicans in the Senate are outraged at Trump’s policy over Syria in abandoning the loyal Kurds to the fate of Turkey’s President Erdogan. As Turkey invaded Syria to create a ‘safe zone’ free of Kurds near their southern border, guess who embraced Erdogan. No other than President Putin, who hosted a six hour summit on how they, and other regional players, will divide control over Syria. In a victory for Putin, Russian and Turkish troops will take control of a vast swathe of Kurdish controlled northern Syria, establishing Putin as the dominant power in the region.

Admittedly, it started with errors by Obama’s administration, but Trump is now overseeing the withering of America’s influence over the Middle East at a faster pace than ever. Combined with retreating from commitments to the UN, his well-known hostility to the EU and NATO, and an embrace of dictators such as Kim Jong Un, America’s foreign policies are a disaster. The US has also ceded ground across Africa to China with the latter pumping $90 billion into the region in 2018 alone. Add that to China’s investment into its new Silk Road and America’s growing capitulation is complete.

In some ways the election of Trump is understandable by a nation which has sunk some $6 trillion into pointless Middle East wars whilst median wages back home have stagnated, and inequality of wealth has soared. But Trump is making things much worse. Pulling back from global commitments and abandoning allies, whilst back at home funnelling tax cuts to the rich, is a sure way of ceding world super-power status quicker than ever to China. Other countries will follow over time. My experience in the US was to witness a country profoundly ill at ease with itself as the consequences of Trump’s actions to those outside his immediate core base become increasingly evident.

They say politics in the UK and US are a mirror image of each other. As the UK eventually leaves the EU and the US abandons the world stage, this is true. Divisiveness rules. In the process it is making America small again and the UK even tinier on its own than it was before.

First, Brexit seems really boring and unfathomable from here so no updated views on Johnson’s mooted shabby deal until after Saturday…

I am sat in a hotel in New York watching US politics unfold on television. It is more interesting. There is no shyness about partisan broadcasting on this side of the pond. Fox News is avowedly Trumpite whilst CNN is vociferous in its support for the Democrats. In some ways it is awful but, guiltily, I have to admit it is not as stifling as the tedious ‘balance’ of the BBC.

And as the impeachment of Trump proceeds apace, at least through the House of Representatives, you are reminded that politics here is possibly even more crazily polarised than it is in the UK.

So what is happening?

First, Trump. It always has to be… He is looking genuinely rattled by the impeachment process. The evidence mounts of improper behaviour over Ukraine and even loyal Republicans are getting nervous. Trump’s ability to sell America’s interests down the river for personal advancement is resonating outside all but his core base. The Democrats don’t look quite as purely partisan in starting impeachment proceedings as they might have been. Trump also exploded in a meeting with senior Democrats yesterday including insulting Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker, to her face. They walked out and there is a sense Trump is losing the plot.

Then there is Syria. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Trump. His shocking misjudgment at selling out the Kurds by pulling out the few US troops left from northern Syria, with no apparent professional State Department advice, has shocked many Republican Senators such as the normally loyal Lindsey Graham. He needs people like these to save him from full impeachment. And, remember, the political professionals in the Republican Party really loathe Trump but have been forced to put up with him because of his grassroots popularity. They had nowhere else to go. They might now, particularly as polls are starting to turn against Trump in the uncommitted category.

However you then get the Democrats. Sadly, they are in some ways similar to Corbyn’s Labour Party in believing the solution to a move to the Right is to move to the Left. There was a debate on Tuesday amongst the leading contenders and here are a few thoughts.

Elizabeth Warren, the new left-wing frontrunner, looks somewhat vulnerable. Bernie Sanders, post heart attack, looks robust and convincing but only from a socialist perspective…Joe Biden, I feel, has lost it. When can you say in a rightly anti-ageist world that somebody is too old? I will leave it to others to decide. Who really impressed was Mayor Pete Buttigieg. A real talent but possibly not quite ready now. Very bright, moderate, calm and assured. There were other notable contributions, some bad, some good, but Trump still dominated. One feels he has to self implode to allow these mostly relative wallflowers to bloom.

So back to where we are. Groundhog Day. I wonder if Brexit will be the same…?

To paraphrase…I don’t know Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson is no Winston Churchill…

Johnson fundamentally doesn’t want an EU deal. He wants a heroic departure. Why else would he leave it so late to concoct a proposed amended withdrawal deal which ensures border controls even if they are not ‘at or near’ the border of Ireland and Northern Ireland? Why would he threaten to flout the law by refusing to contemplate remaining in the EU post 31st October as parliament dictates? Why did he try for a lengthy prorogation of parliament? Why does he choose language such as ‘surrender’ and, yesterday, in his Party Conference speech, tangentially make reference to his tangles with the Supreme Court with the words ‘age of creative litigation’?

Regardless of whether Johnson strikes a Brexit deal with the EU and enough colleagues in Westminster, the next election will still be about ‘the People versus Parliament’ with all the dangerous precedents that sets. Referenda throughout history have been used by the majority (however narrow) to subjugate the minority and it is no different now. You trash representative democracy, pay lip service to our Supreme Court and mislead the Queen. You remain unrepentant because you are a warrior; a warrior against European domination and the fashionable elites. That is the Churchillian pose of this Prime Minister. If he is allowed to get away with it, the long-term consequences are shocking. Not least if this most un-Tory of leaders is followed by a Marxist Prime Minister, who uses such precedents to even greater effect.

Johnson has nowhere else to go. His strategy, crafted by Cummings, is set in stone. It is do or die.

So, will he get away with it? Quite possibly. Labour, under the hopeless Corbyn, provides Johnson with a huge window of opportunity. The Tories, after all, despite the Brexit Party, are 11% ahead in the opinion polls. An array of populist Tory spending pledges (what happened to Tory economic prudence?) may reinforce their lead as they seek to steal Labour seats in the North. The LibDems will do well but may not match expectations with their hard Remain stance in the Brexit South West undermining prospects there.

Then we would have a truly Churchillian victory. Gulp!

However, the Tories will lose seats in Scotland after Ruth Davidson’s departure and their DUP allies may lose ground in Northern Ireland, even handing victory to Sinn Fein. They will lose several heavily Remain seats in the South East and London. And the evidence in previous elections is that Tory spending pledges and Brexit are not quite enough to peel votes from Labour in its strongholds. Finally, Farage is not going anywhere and certainly if we have not left the EU by 31st October, the Brexit Party will be rejuvenated whatever Johnson’s bluster.

On balance, only that fundamentally unwanted EU deal, or God forbid, a pact with the Brexit Party, guarantees an election victory for Johnson otherwise a hung parliament and a second referendum beckons.

Not quite so Churchillian after all.

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Two extreme leaders. No, I am not talking about Johnson sitting next to Trump* at the UN, treating the abeyance of law as an inconvenience, but Johnson versus Corbyn. More about Corbyn’s Labour Party later.

First, the extraordinary situation of the Government’s proroguing of Parliament being declared illegal, unanimously, by our entirely objective Supreme Court. It is without precedent. Brexit was about ‘taking back control of our own laws’. Well that has happened with a vengeance. Hurrah.

Johnson, led by his out of control adviser, Dominic Cummings, has disgraced his office. His actions have been entirely un-Conservative. Whilst this ruling does not resolve Brexit, a scorched earth policy of driving Brexit through by 31st October is unravelling. Too many mistakes, too quickly. He should resign and be replaced by a moderate, caretaker Conservative leader who seeks cross party consensus on a way out of the Brexit impasse, offering the electorate a series of options to be voted on by order of preference. That new leader should, in the process, also start to rebuild the Conservative Party on the centre-right ground.

Stage left, so to speak, we then have the disastrous Labour Party’s conference which has already been largely forgotten. That is a shame. It began with an attempt to abolish the role of Deputy Leader because the holder, Tom Watson, disagreed with the Leader. Then a series of far left policies; a stubbornly chaotic approach to Brexit, reckless spending, confiscation of company shareholdings, the abolition of private education, wasteful free prescriptions for all, a four day working week. One could go on. The whole conduct of the conference was, well, very Animal Farm.

The two major parties, always a coalition of views, have lost their way. They have moved to the extreme Right and Left, and if they are to survive in their current form need to reform, starting with a review of their membership to remove the influence of infiltrators.

Today, the moderate LibDems look good; largely moderate, reforming and with a crystal clear policy on Brexit. They may not triumph whenever there is a general election, but they deserve to do very well. They are streets ahead in terms of balance and focus.

In a period of chaos, we should pause for a moment and praise our Supreme Court; smart, rational and objective when our politicians are anything but. Lady Hale, the president, was majestic. Her spider brooch worn during her judgement has apparently being turned into a T-shirt. Over 2000 have already been sold in aid of cancer research. You should buy one whilst stocks last as a souvenir of the defence of democracy in momentous times…

*Donald Trump looked very rattled yesterday. Perhaps he is unwell but his exceptionally orange, tired appearance at the UN sat next to Johnson made uncomfortable watching. Two men under immense pressure, with at least one facing impeachment…

In sunny Bournemouth earlier this week for the LibDem annual conference, testing the health of centre ground politics in the UK. You will be pleased to know it is alive and kicking but, my, is it exhausting! The LibDems hold the only truly democratic conference of the major parties. There are motions and amendments on all sorts of issues. All debated in minute detail by people who, with their rucksacks and casual dress, often look like renegades from Glastonbury.

But the delegates are earnest and mostly nice, campaigning fanatics who are incredibly valuable to the British political process, and not to be dismissed. They are making their mark and are resilient to past near wipe outs.

Then there are the newbies at the conference. The number of LibDem MPs has swollen to 18 with defections from both the Tory and Labour parties and there are some real stars among the new intake. Chuka Umunna is immensely impressive and spoke with real charisma. You can see why the new LibDem leader, Jo Swinson, is so pleased to have him, sprinkling stardust everywhere and taking the pressure off her always to perform. He could be leader one day.

For the Tories, Sarah Wollaston also spoke well, and both seem at home in their new party.

And now to Brexit…To date, this is the sole reason for the rejuvenation of the LibDems and quite right too with their firmly pro-EU stance. Their new policy of simply cancelling Brexit if they win a General Election is also smart politics regardless of some doubts that it trashes the last referendum result. The policy is crystal clear and creates a sharp definition to Labour’s woolly stance. Those voting LibDem for the first time at the next election will do so for one reason and one reason only; to stop Brexit. You might as well be ruthless about it.

For the LibDems to make ground-breaking progress, however, they need to have simple, attractive policies beyond Brexit and those should not just be about ‘re purposing capitalism’ and constitutional reform as advocated by the rather self-satisfied political economist, Will Hutton, at fringe meetings. They need tougher, quick win economic policies. They also need to fully recover from the trauma of being in a perfectly good coalition with the Tories under Cameron if they are going to provide a true safe haven for those on the centre-right ground.

Politics in the UK is broken. You only have to witness the Government before our Supreme Court justifying the suspension of parliament to know this. Against this backdrop, the success of the LibDems is refreshing and needed and Jo Swinson has made a solid start. But for many of those who have loyally supported other parties, in my case the Tories, beyond being a home for tactical voting on Brexit, I am not sure. The jury is still out…

What a couple of weeks! When Johnson became PM, political life was always going to become more colourful but, looking like a set from a Tarantino film, it may be too much even for him…

The strategy of Cummings (Johnson’s senior adviser and the real driver of events) and Johnson was always to enact a scorched earth policy to ensure EU departure by 31st October. With total contempt for the Tory Party and Parliament, Cummings’ aim was to move the Tories and the political agenda to a hard Brexit versus Remain, accuse Parliament of betraying the people and crush the Brexit Party on the way to a famous General Election victory. Grassroots Tories mostly like this even though it was too much for 21 Tory MPs, expelled from the Party for voting against their own government. Other moderates are feeling distinctly queasy.

So how has this strategy fared? On the upside for the hard Brexiteers, Johnson’s brutal approach at least smacks of some leadership and he polls far more strongly than Corbyn. Overall opinion poll ratings have held up and there is a glimmer of hope that a General Election victory may just be possible. The good news, however, stops there.

The danger with a deliberately provocative approach is that it is high risk and makes governing more vulnerable to unexpected ‘events’ and, my, has there been an avalanche of these.

Let’s just run through a few. Ruth Davidson, the moderate, hugely popular Scottish Tory leader, resigns putting probably 10 Scottish Tory seats at risk. Then, incredibly, Johnson’s own brother resigns citing a conflict between the national interest and family. Less of an impact, but still damaging, Amber Rudd, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, resigns out of the blue outraged at the expulsion of 21 colleagues. Proroguing Parliament for an extended period ‘whips up’ determined opposition to Johnson’s team and boosts extensive cross-party cooperation. Rees Mogg, Leader of the House of Commons, and Cummings’ consistent goading of moderate Tory MPs has also made the Tory moderates’ rebellion worse.

The consequences? There will now be no General Election in October; Johnson is humiliatingly instructed to seek a deal with the EU or extend membership until end January and is now also forced to publish private communications on the real reasons for proroguing parliament.

Lastly, Speaker Bercow has the last laugh by resigning in this parliament, almost certainly guaranteeing the next Speaker will be a Remainer.

I doubt much of this appeared in Cummings’ play book…The problem with a highly aggressive strategy in a political system of unwritten checks and balances is that it can run out of control, stoking overwhelming hostility and surprising barriers to progress. It is a thrilling ride but not good politics if the end goal is more difficult to achieve. That is what has happened.

In reality, despite all the brave words from Johnson’s camp, it is now hard for the Tories to win a no-deal General Election. Their own internal polling confirms this. The loss of seats to the SNP in Scotland and to the Liberal Democrats in the South, exacerbated by events, means significant Labour seats in the North would have to fall to Johnson. The danger is that Brexit supporting Labour voters won’t just vote on Brexit. Economics matters, hence the recent announcements of a Tory spending splurge, but it is unlikely to be enough.

A possible humiliating and dangerous deal with Farage is an option but Johnson has set himself against this. Farage is loathed more than anyone by Cummings (does he like anybody?) and his whole strategy is designed to take him out.

Oh dear. That leaves a deal with the EU as the only viable option for a Tory victory in a likely November General Election. Watch this space for concessions on the Irish backstop…