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Panic over Starmer’s judgement; calm down and carry on…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

It’s the media at its worst, and it’s Starmer at his worst.

All the right-wing media and quite a selection of other media too are circling the government with a little help from Starmer’s enemies in the wider Labour Party. Stop it. If not Starmer, then it will be Farage, not Badenoch (the Tories are currently dead in the water until they find a new long-term leader with real ability), Davey, or anybody else. If that’s not what you want, Starmer is pretty much the current best hope of preventing populism from succeeding in this country. For those who think Farage won’t be a problem, be very careful what you wish for. A Reform government in any shape or form would be a disaster and a betrayal of all the moderate values this country is known for and has worked so hard to defend. That is what we should be proud of, not the damn flag and the 110,000 out and proud Tommy Robinson racists who despoiled the streets of London at the weekend.

Give him a break, he has Donald Trump in the UK to contend with…

Starmer has got things wrong and has seemed hopelessly flat-footed, but he is hardly responsible for Rayner’s tax affairs. He certainly got Mandelson’s appointment wrong, but it is not impossible to see why you might want Britain’s best trade negotiator in Washington and that bit of the equation probably paid off.

As far as who might replace Starmer, the much mooted Andy Burnham is a blow hard who’s alleged successes as mayor of Manchester were brought down to earth in the Sunday Times at the weekend. Why on earth would a so-called ‘soft left’ politician solve our current problems? I met a Labour peer relatively recently who was my opponent in Manchester Withington when I stood for parliament many years ago. He damned Burnham with very faint praise, saying he was only as good as the people around him. Umm…

Let alone the Trump visit this week, the budget in November must be relatively error free, and Starmer also needs to acquire some emotional intelligence in dealing with his colleagues. That would go a long way to easing some current resentments. But make no mistake about it. Labour colleagues and even many in opposition parties should wish him well because the current alternative according to opinion polls is not a refreshed Labour government under a new leader but something very unpleasant indeed. It would make divisions over Brexit seem like Halcyon days…

Oh dear: Moderates seem to be failing everywhere…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

How bad can it get? The centre-right has collapsed or is collapsing in the USA, UK, France, Italy to name just a few countries. To be fair, centre-right, centre-left moderates are hanging on in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Germany, Australia, and Canada, but the populist threat is rising across the board. Picking a row with Donald Trump seems to be the short-term route to salvation.

As for the UK, bloody hell! This blog welcomed Starmer’s pragmatism, but if that is a substitute for absolutely no core beliefs, we have a problem.

Starmer, like Sunak, seems to be deaf politically and cuts an unsympathetic figure. I have repeated this before, but he needs to be brutally honest on taxes, cut through on housing, the NHS, and small boats. Actually, just get things done. Otherwise, this government is toast and currently it is our last hope. After Rayner’s departure, I think he might have the cabinet he wanted even if by accident. Let’s see. Umm… as I write this Starmer has just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. Did nobody check these links, particularly when we had a good Ambassador already in situ who had built close ties with Trump’s administration? It smacks of general incompetence laced with hypocrisy guaranteed to infuriate voters.

One law for moderates, another law for voters…

Despite day to day errors, the unpopularity of moderates generally has come about because of their fundamental incompetence in relating, managing expectations and delivering for voters. You can combine this with a fair amount of dishonesty, as mainstream politicians treat politics purely as a career rarely built on a set of consistent beliefs which chime with the electorate. Often self-serving and easily judged as hypocritical (see above), why shouldn’t voters go for populists? They feel there is nothing left to lose (until they have lost big time as they would be worse off on every front), as little seems to change, living standards have plateaued or gone backwards, and nobody is levelling with them. Respect for state institutions and indeed democracy itself is disappearing. Just look at how it is playing out in America. The self-serving, grotesquely incompetent Trump destroys government but incredibly moderates having nothing to offer except to self-flagellate over whether they should stay moderate or not.

We need clever, politically astute (not the same thing), brutally honest, perhaps even charismatic politicians (a change of view here) with gravitas to cut through and deflate the populist balloon before it is too late.

Where are they?

P.S. An uncomfortable UK state visit for Trump. If Mandelson has to resign because of his ties to Epstein, what does it say about the US President’s past and the company he kept…

Voters barely deserve democracy…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Here we go again. Another contradictory poll this week in The Times shows voters not wanting any tax rises, but demanding improved public services, oh, and the resignation of Rachel Reeves.

Infuriating. Cake and eat it comes to mind…

Then the public also wants to reduce immigration whilst nine million people of working age can’t/won’t work for various reasons, many, of course, quite legitimate. We have shortages of workers across a host of sectors from hospitality to care homes. Who today fills the gap, works hard and pays taxes? Oh, that will be immigrants then.

Add to this Reform UK topping opinion polls despite barely concealed, rabble rising racism being part of its raison d’etre. I love mixing a French colloquialism when it comes to Farage… The public thinks Reform is a one man band yet still it is ahead of Labour by eight percent regardless of any tested policies. Just unpleasant insinuations appear to be enough.

As the Financial Times says, ‘democracy can fail anywhere’…

Of course, much of the blame lies with mainstream politicians promising the earth but not the means to pay for it. This Labour government has tied itself in knots by refusing to raise core taxes against impossible earlier promises not to. Its solution is to leak a range of confidence busting peripheral taxes, thinking they can dishonestly trouser up to £40 billion in revenue without most people noticing. Good luck on that one.

Government is messy, complicated, balancing a range of competing interests. Institutions are moving too slowly to enact change and yet change is needed, not promises, quangos and endless reviews and enquiries. The public is in no mood for delay as the sense of drift that nothing gets done continues to gain ground, fuelled by polarised debates on social media.

A solution. The government gets competent, reviews its core tax policy, however painful, and introduces policies to cure sclerotic growth apace whilst Labour backbenchers wake up and support targeted cuts to benefits expenditure. The ‘small boats’ crisis also needs sorting. It might seem a distraction, but the public have had enough, and it is currently their top priority. Labour simply won’t get re-elected if they don’t.

In return? Voters need to accept those trade-offs on tax, cuts in public expenditure and immigration more generally. They also need to find within themselves more respect for the considerable challenges politicians face otherwise we simply get the politicians we deserve. Public life should be a two way street.

As the country slides unnecessarily into gloom, Churchill’s maxim that “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” has never seemed more apt…

It’s Irregular Migration, Stupid…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As a news junky, I rarely tune out of the news. But this summer with the exception of the Putin/Trump summit on Ukraine, I have.

Probably not surprising. Whether it is Israel/Gaza, Ukraine or Trump’s actions generally, the news agenda is uniformly depressing. Nothing gets resolved, the aggressors make ground and, with Trump, there seems no checks and balances on his increasingly authoritarian presidency.

But, closer to home, it is the furore over the small boats crisis which makes grim reading/watching. As the number of irregular migrants rises (still a small percentage of overall immigration), it is the worst face of Britain on show. Racist thugs besiege migrant hotels (if only we could deport them…) and Nigel Farage makes hay proposing all sorts of impossible policies whilst Starmer’s government seems rudderless.

The worst face of Britain on display…

Whether you like it or not a meaningful solution has to be found to ‘stop the small boats’ otherwise Farage’s momentum may not stall through to the next election. He is currently 8 percent ahead of Labour in the polls. Just look what the issue of irregular or illegal immigration did for Trump. Liberals in the broadest sense of the word need to form a consensus that action needs to be taken and support increasingly bold initiatives from Starmer, otherwise the consequences electorally for their agenda will be far worse.

Margaret Thatcher alighted on the issue of legal versus illegal immigration years ago and warned of the fallout from unfettered access to the UK. It has been the Achilles heel of successive governments and now a potential fatal wound for Starmer if he doesn’t get numbers down.

And let’s be clear, many voters, not the ones demonstrating outside hotels, have a valid point. There are genuine fears, even if hardly justified by the facts or exaggerated, about large numbers of young men from different cultural backgrounds being housed in small towns. The cost of the hotels to accommodate migrants as armies of lawyers appeal nearly every deportation is outrageous, particularly when there is such a housing shortage in the UK and the government is short of money generally. Every government initiative is too little, too late and we will end up leaving the ECHR and other international agreements if nothing can be done.

Immigration is vital to the health of the UK economy. Migrants enrich our life but irregular migration washes out many of the perceived benefits. Fears whipped up by Farage and the vile Robert Jenrick, Shadow Justice Secretary, (shame on the Tory Party for letting his agenda run) dominate the headlines. The political agenda and public life generally is becoming ugly which can only benefit populists. Starmer has to park his international activities and focus on his domestic ones whatever the cost otherwise he will be a one-term premier.

Against this backdrop, when indoors, no wonder this summer has been dominated by the likes of Netflix rather than the news…

Trump’s approach to Ukraine remains a messy betrayal…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

The recent Trump/Putin summit felt like the one with Kim Jong Un. A pariah is invited to meet Trump on the pariah’s terms. The pariah gains validation from the meeting, strokes Trump’s ego, and departs in a stronger position.

Trump gains nothing from the meeting except a belief he is a deal-maker extraordinaire. The pariah gains time to wreak more mayhem.

To date, Trump has been outplayed by Putin. Does he really care?

International diplomacy is no property transaction. It is a game of brutal chess, testing your opponent’s weaknesses to outplay them. Trump’s frailties (notably his ego) are there for all to see, but sadly, the consequences of being outplayed are far more serious than a mere game of chess.

Putin has bought time (useful if you are winning the battle) and has persuaded Trump that illegal territorial gains in Ukraine from an act of war should be recognised. Ukraine apparently has no right to join NATO, and Western troops have no right to protect Ukraine’s borders. Trump’s security guarantees if a settlement is reached from such a mercurial president are hardly worth the paper they are written on. He could never put American troops on the ground anyway due to his isolationist base. Just look how they responded to the bombing of Iran.

The positive from all this is the impressive response from the major European powers, acting as one in seeking to defend Ukraine and, in doing so, their own security. As they rushed to the White House displaying a normally well-hidden mastery of the English language, the future of the UK seems clear. It is in Europe and aligned with the EU. The US is now no longer a reliable ally regardless of Trump.

The challenge is that Europe needs longer to rearm than it will take Putin to defeat Ukraine. Bowing the knee to Trump is an unpleasant necessity for now.

But let’s be clear. Only Putin has been the beneficiary of Trump’s actions in the past week or so. As the largest wave of Russian drone strikes hit Ukraine overnight, the messy betrayal of Ukraine by this US president remains unchanged.

Trump’s balance sheet: the good, the bad and the very ugly…

~ Julian Samways ~ 1 Comment

So, lucky us. We get Donald Trump twice this year. First, playing golf in Turnberry with Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer rushing up to Scotland to pay homage and then the State visit in September. Umm…

Trump has dominated the headlines since day one of his presidency, hitting the ground running with a highly competent far-right team behind him, introducing some ground-breaking and irreversible domestic and international policies. You might not like him, but as with Farage, he is a transformative politician.

Trump swings into Scotland…

So, how does the balance sheet of Trump’s actions look as we head off for the summer holidays? Well, first the good, as it is the shortest part.

Trump was right to goad and threaten Europe into paying more for its own defence. Previous US presidents have urged this but have then done nothing to force Europe’s hand. There has always been a strong isolationist streak in America, and Trump has played this beautifully to get a 3.5 per cent of GDP defence spending commitment from European countries (ex-Spain). Second, immigration. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border has now fallen by 90 per cent on a month on month basis. Whatever you think of the merits of migration or the way Trump has treated this issue, the scale of illegal border crossings was storing up huge tensions in the US, even amongst many Democrat voters as southern states sent immigrants north to be housed. Obama was actually the toughest US president to curb numbers before Trump. Biden was hopeless. In thrall to his left-wing, he totally failed (as did Harris) to understand the strength of feeling on this issue across a majority of voters. Take note, Starmer.

OK, that’s enough ‘praise’. Now the bad. Tariffs do not work. They will potentially cause huge market inefficiencies and drive up prices. The consequences have yet to be felt. The rates are illogical across countries, although the overall impact might not be as great as earlier predictions indicated. Second, the recent tax bill. It strips Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party who pushed it through, ballooning the deficit in the process. What happened to fiscal conservatism? One senses the next global economic crisis might be driven by a fear of America defaulting on its debt, evidence demonstrated by the current weakness of the US Dollar.

Then the very ugly. There could be an entire book on this. Regardless of policy, it is the morality of leaders and their probity, which provides the bedrock to democracy. Trump simply lies, lies, lies. Perhaps an unsurprising trait in a convicted felon. Americans either don’t notice or don’t care about the State capture blatantly on view, whether it is Trump’s crypto-currency deals, the acceptance of a jet from Qatar or the fact that he, his family and ‘friends’ constantly trade on the broader influence of the presidency to enrich themselves. Next is the undermining of state institutions, the bullying of universities and arts generally in a drive to eradicate ‘political correctness’, the attempt to compromise an independent judicial process. The list goes on, but the ugly is also a fair description of fawning Western leaders who have swallowed their pride to accommodate Trump.

Finally, the lowest of the lows was how President Zelenskyy was treated in the White House in February. This was an iconic moment. Surrounded by individuals who had never fought, been under any military threat, and, in some cases, had dodged the Vietnam draft, it was a shameful episode. JD Vance’s behaviour was on this occasion, even worse than Trump’s. How dare they speak to a fellow president like that, representing a country under existential threat. This spectacle alone should be enough to justify a damning analysis of Trump’s presidency. The one silver lining is that Trump hasn’t had the opportunity to hand Ukraine to Putin and now understands the Russian leader isn’t quite the pal he thought he was.

The future? Who knows, as the Democrats sink to record levels of unpopularity and irrelevance. Will the presidency and federal institutions recover from four years of Trump? Will anyone realise the damage done by ineffectual checks and balances on centralised power? One doubts it. In a few years, which can’t come too soon, Trump’s emperor-like reign will end. But the hangover will be enormous.

Labour’s dishonesty on tax will fuel populism

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

Why don’t mainstream politicians ever learn? If you over-promise and under-deliver, it will fuel cynicism, driving voters into the arms of populists.

It is in the area of tax that Starmer’s government has got itself in the greatest mess. Frightened into saying Labour will not raise core taxes during the general election campaign, it is now stuck. Ministers cannot or feel they cannot break election pledges of not increasing income tax, VAT, or employees’ national insurance. As the economy fails to boom, partly undermined by taxes on business (confused message here – growth versus employers’ national insurance increase which inhibits growth), the government now has a potential new black hole of £20 billion in its finances.

Time for Starmer and Reeves to level with the public…

Yet Labour backbenchers will not stomach a cut of even £5 billion to the bottom line of bloated welfare expenditure. The NHS gobbles up vast amounts of new funding, defence expenditure will rise to 3.5% of GDP and £100 billion is promised on long-term capital expenditure.

What is to give? More tax on business will send the economy into recession and wealth taxes, after the disastrous policy of tightening up non-dom eligibility to pay UK inheritance taxes on worldwide assets (who thought of that one?), will simply lead to a further flight of capital which is wholly at odds with a ‘growth’ economy.

Meanwhile, Labour’s closest rival, Reform, is happy to splash out an extra £100 billion on law and order, scrapping the two-child limit on benefit payments, reinstating the winter fuel allowance in full, introducing a more generous transferable marriage tax allowance and increasing the income tax personal allowance to £20,000 a year. All this will be offset by scrapping HS2 and scrapping net zero policies. Umm… not an ounce of detail provided.

The reason Reform is getting away with it is Labour is in power, not them and Farage has yet to be subject to any close scrutiny. Populism is simply too popular to be disbelieved in the face of conventional politicians evading the truth.

What is to be done? Labour needs to have an honest dialogue with the electorate about the incompatible priorities of not increasing taxes yet promising improved public services, let alone a larger defence budget to keep us safe. It should outline genuine tax and spend tax dilemmas and take the pain of unpopular policies today to really succeed in delivering what the electorate wants tomorrow. You cannot have your cake and eat it. The electorate need to know this.

So, cut red tape on business and planning, cull the bloated civil service, reform welfare, reverse one of the Tories’ employees’ national insurance cuts and reduce upper rate tax relief on pension contributions. And while doing this plan for an ever closer relationship with the EU, making it clear Brexit is one of the reasons for the UK being in such a mess.

Much of this will be dreadfully unpopular but Labour then has four years to unpick Reform’s impossible plans which will come under greater scrutiny the closer it gets to power and prove steady competence from moderates in the medium-term works.

The electorate will hopefully understand there are no easy solutions to the dissatisfaction and cynicism they feel today if the government levels with them. And telling the truth without platitudes may even have the added advantage of pricking populism’s bubble before it is too late.

Who would believe it…?

Starmer: a wobble to be worried about…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

For the first time (yes, it has taken this long…), I am concerned about the direction or, rather, lack of direction of this government. I have always thought Starmer’s ideological pragmatism was to be admired, but the danger is that if bad mistakes blow you off course, there is no path to return to.

A terrible week for Starmer’s government…

This happened big time this week. Amendments to the benefits system which the government tried to drive through parliament to show fiscal rectitude were horribly rushed. Why introduce them now when a comprehensive review of the whole system was in train, reporting in 2026? Rightly, a lack of logic and no attempt to win backbenchers over, meant defeat loomed despite a 165 seat majority. Starmer et al realised this far too late and the amendments to win his colleagues over first diluted savings and then eradicated them. No cost savings now, and the government’s authority and credibility shredded in the process. Nobody doubts the current benefits system is unsustainable, even most Labour backbenchers, but this was not the way to go about fixing it with short-term changes simply to save an immediate £5 billion.

However, for a moment, spare a thought for Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor. She looked terrible in parliament yesterday, barely containing her tears. The cause was explained as a personal matter, but nobody should go through this in public. In PMQs, the charmless Kemi Badenoch alighted on her and Starmer ignored her. It damaged both of them. Starmer made up for it in later interviews, yet it took Mel Stride, Tory Shadow Chancellor, from the Opposition to exhibit genuine sympathy for Reeves’ plight on Sky News this morning. Good on him. Sometimes the toll of public life is too great.

Anyway, back to the issue in hand. Starmer needs to get back to domestic politics full-time. It is understandable that Ukraine, the EU, Putin, Trump, NATO are all hugely time consuming, but you cannot contribute constructively to international crises if you are defenestrated at home.

Starmer needs to lay out a comprehensive map of where his government is heading and, consequently, what the UK should look like in 2029. There needs to be carefully calibrated milestones that the public can identify with to measure achievements. Visible progress is everything if Labour is to head off the populists.

Starmer also better move fast to build relations with his fellow MPs and get off the hook of obsessive fiscal discipline for now which is creating more harm than good through excessive short-termism. He needs to improve his economic understanding to avoid ‘what the markets are thinking’ panic every few weeks whilst at the same time defending Reeves to the hilt. They are joined at the hip whether he likes it or not. If she goes, he is next.

An NHS overhaul, new house builds, planning reform, reviews of the benefits system and social care (the latter taking too long, however), and infrastructure investment are all strong building blocks for recovery in the government’s fortunes. But, Starmer has to get his communications act together and give the vision thing or he could be toast.

And the alternatives are too awful to contemplate…

The US: an increasingly foreign country for Europeans…

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

I went to Chicago, Boston, and New York last week on business. It included a mock listing for my company, JPES Partners, on Nasdaq courtesy of our partners, eVestment. Thank you. It was fun.

When in the US, focus on the positives such as Nasdaq’s brilliant self-promotion…

I stayed on to see close friends at the weekend. That was fun, too. But they are worried.

The politics of this country is dark, very dark. Like Brexit in the UK, Trump is toxic. Half of the electorate loathe him and are simply embarrassed or alarmed. The other half feel he is a slightly unpleasant necessity. A small minority of course love him but, even amongst the latter, few would want him round for dinner…

Trump’s presidency is sinister, and his presence makes the country increasingly foreign to Europeans. I was warned to take any anti-Trump material off my phone before entering the country as border security could ask to see it and send me home if it offended. What??? Federal institutions are under attack, including the judiciary. Cultural and educational institutions seen as liberal are also under attack or are usurped. Trump taking over the Kennedy Centre and the attempted crushing of Harvard by withdrawing federal grants are just two painful examples.

Trump threatens NATO, bombs Iran, swears at Israel and lies on the international stage. It is too early to address the impact of his chaotic foreign policy, but it is splitting his isolationist supporters. They will bend the knee in the end. They have nowhere else to go. Just listen to the pathetic and vile Steve Bannon grovelling to Trump on the Middle East.

Domestically, Trump also happens to be forcing through a tax bill stripping Medicaid from 16m Americans whilst shovelling cash to the rich. Shame on the Republican Party.

Yet, the Democrats in response are hopeless. Either stunned into inaction or busy in-fighting. A new generation of activists believe a lurch to the Left is the solution to Trump with Democrats in New York electing a privileged self-described socialist to be their candidate for mayor. Take note, you muppets. Corbyn’s experience in the UK should be a guide. It may feel good, but you will never win elections nationally from this position. Voters are mostly centrist, and your failure to offer a decent alternative to Trump re voters’ core concerns handed him victory in the first place.

Trump was underestimated, and the US Constitution overestimated. Checks and balances feel illusionary. Against this background, I know many Europeans who have withdrawn from holidaying in the US until Trump has gone. Public life has become too wild. My response? I walked past Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, forgetting to look. You just have to focus on the belief that Trump will never define this country, whatever current damage this man does. Just ignore him and keep on walking…

Nice to be home, though.

‘Logical’ Conservatism is the way to defeat populism

~ Julian Samways ~ Leave a comment

As writer of this blog, I have to make a confession. I am a member of an organisation that represents an extremist minority in UK politics. It is called the Conservative European Forum (CEF) which amongst other things represents pro-EU Conservatives…

It believes the Conservative Party should anchor itself on the centre-right and no further, focusing on strong relationships with our European partners, economically and in relation to defence. Add to that respect for institutions of state, social liberalism but supporting family structures in whatever form they take, fiscal prudence but always aiming for lower taxes when they can be afforded, aspiration, a comprehensive but fair (to everyone) social security net to name a few other beliefs and you have the best of a Conservative Party that has today lost its bearings.

The CEF held a breakfast with Matthew Parris this week. The conversation took a gloomy turn…:

  • The Conservative Party is heading to a dead end chasing Reform
  • Kemi Badenoch is underperforming (a polite summary) and her leadership is time limited
  • The main thing saving the Conservative Party is the LibDems failing to, not wanting to, or being unable to move to the Right to finish it off once and for all
  • The route to redemption is sweeping away the recent past, regaining a reputation for economic competence. It is always the economy stupid, never immigration or cultural wars
  • That now is the time to be unpopular, advocating cutting unsustainable debt, in the process and in particular, rebalancing policies away from older voters to younger ones
  • The Party doesn’t get any of this except point two…

Rebalancing economic policies, indeed even focusing on them at all, will inevitably be hugely unpopular to the few remaining Conservative Party members let alone some Conservative inclined voters, but absolutely logical and necessary. It is needed early in this parliament to sow the seeds of redemption, even whilst understanding it will be a long road back to power over more than one election cycle, whoever is leading the Party.

Neither show the understanding or commitment to defeat populism

Which takes me to the Labour government’s spending review yesterday. One can applaud capital spending but the actual or imminent retreat on the winter fuel allowance, sickness benefits, the two children policy whilst refusing to increase core taxes is fantasy economics. There is a consensus Rachel Reeves is safe in her job for now but a UK debt crisis is around the corner if we are not beaten to it by the US.

Moderate politicians are being frequently thrashed by populists because they have promised too much and under-delivered for too long. Labour’s sums don’t add up and the lack of clarity in the overall message means it remains disappointingly business as usual for this centrist government.

If the Conservatives could have a serious, logical conversation about the huge pressures facing public expenditure and what hard, unpopular decisions need to be taken to correct the trajectory, they could start to regain a reputation for economic competence, expanding their voting base from the cul-de-sac they find themselves in now.

Sounds logical but more pain is required before such a path to recovery is taken. All on the assumption the patient doesn’t expire in the meantime…