Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
An addendum to this morning’s blog on the US. Robert Jenrick, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s arch rival has been sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for planning to defect to Reform. One 2026 prediction that he would not be her successor seems to have come true already…
He is a man wholly without principle. He stands for ambition and ambition only. He has become an extremist on immigration. Good riddance!
At this rate, with all these defections, the Tory Party might be left with a majority of sensible moderates who could one day speed up the Party’s return to power…
We await news on Iran. US involvement in the Middle East has gone so well in the past… but in terms of what we do know, Trump’s presidency had hit a new low at the start of 2026. Let’s look at four actions that truly appal:
A rogue President in action…
The invasion of Venezuela. No moral purpose to removing the illegitimate, thoroughly corrupt Maduro. Simply a blatant oil grab setting a precedent for dictators and wannabe dictators to invade at will. Only belatedly has Trump even acknowledged his ‘competitor’ for the Nobel peace prize, María Corina Machado, by far a more legitimate successor to Maduro than the his corrupt underlings who Trump is happy to support if they let American oil companies drill. What could possibly go wrong…
The shooting of an innocent, yes innocent woman driving away or at least having no intention of hitting an ICE agent, in Minnesota. Three shots were fired at her, two directly into the car through an open side window. If shots had to be fired, why weren’t they fired at the tyres? It might have something to do with the fact increasingly out of control ICE agents with the task of rounding up illegal immigrants now only have six weeks training, cut in the first place from a very short three months. She had just dropped her six year old child at school FFS. The blatant re-writing of the history of the event by Trump and JD Vance was pure extremism. Ok to kill a left-wing lesbian apparently… Interestingly, the FBI won’t allow local officials to investigate the incident.
Threats to Greenland and therefore the NATO Alliance. Trump is happy to take the country ‘the hard way’ as part of his Arctic strategy if Greenland/Denmark don’t capitulate. I don’t actually think he will invade but is doing his usual job of sowing chaos to move the agenda in his own favour. What a way to treat an ally whilst at the same time putting the whole western alliance at risk of disintegration.
And then this week attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve by steering US prosecutors to investigate its Chairman, Jay Powell, over the renovation of its headquarters, because he won’t cut interest rates when Trump wants him to. You really hope markets punish the US if Trump gets his way and makes the Fed a pawn to his whims.
To add to a growing list, there is the constant undermining of independent judicial processes, the bullying of institutions such as the takeover of the ‘Trump’- Kennedy arts center, the enrichment of the Trump family, the blatant lies when any of Trump’s cabinet open their mouths, the insults to European allies, the cosying up to Putin and downgrading of China, allowing it to catch up with the US all that more quickly.
Trump has a net approval rating of -17%, similar to his first term. This is very weak driven mainly by unhappiness over the cost of living, but incredibly 39% of voters still approve of Trump’s presidency. It is surely time for a dose of morality to be injected into US political debate. When you are the world’s only superpower voters cannot just focus on domestic affairs. The problem is the whole US political system is deeply flawed which sometimes makes stark comparisons of Trump versus others harder to make. But it is time for a reset.
Trump is a rogue president and can only be shamed, not by impotent, increasingly unhappy Republican members of Congress, but by dynamic leadership from the Democrats and the emergence of a clear presidential contender. Umm… good luck on that one.
First, let’s be clear on Venezuela. My brother lived and worked there. I spent a week in Caracas before visiting Angel Falls, dodging firebombs. What should be one of the world’s richest countries through oil is a poverty stricken, corrupt mess. Chavez and Maduro plundered its resources for personal gain. Good riddance to Maduro.
And yet. And yet… the manner reflects the worst attributes of Trump’s regime. It sets a precedent for China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine let alone America/Greenland which would essentially put the US at war with NATO allies. Presidents Xi and Putin must be rubbing their hands with glee.
Brave or foolhardy. Predictions for this year are hard to make…
As mentioned before, the prediction from a Sky News commentator that Trump’s world view is to carve the globe between three strongmen (Trump, Xi and Putin) is becoming uncomfortably true.
Which takes me to my predictions for 2026 via a review of those for 2025… I actually got 5 out of 9 correct, 2 half correct and 2 completely wrong. That makes a net 6 out of 9. Umm… Not too bad but I must apologise for the terrible mistake of saying Trump might well be more benign than expected. This overshadows all the rest. To be fair to me… I quickly corrected this formally in my blog of 19th February (worth another read) but that’s no excuse. My initial focus was to worry about what comes next after Trump rather than be concerned about the clearly malign, well prepared Trump II.
Anyway, sticking to the positives:
• Labour would have a terrible year but some glimmers of progress would be seen at the end of 2025. Progress yet to be seen. Half correct.
•Despite mutterings Starmer would remain PM. Correct.
• The Tories would have a terrible year and flatline at best in the polls. Correct.
• Reform UK would have a strong year, but with clear signs by end of 2025 they have peaked. This is starting to show in opinion polls along with tactical voting to defeat them. Correct.
• The CDU/CSU in Germany would see off the AFD and win power. AFD are a force to be reckoned with but correct.
• China would have a miserable year but would not invade Taiwan in 2025 to distract attention. Actually, Trump has made it a great year for China, and an invasion of Taiwan is still firmly on the agenda. Half correct.
• The war in Gaza would end but on Israel’s terms. Correct.
• Trump would force a tougher settlement on Ukraine than Russia wants. No sign of that so far.Incorrect.
Over to 2026. Such is global uncertainty, to resist foolhardiness and protect my reputation, I have decided to apply odds to my predictions…
Starmer will remain PM. Labour is poor at replacing leaders and there is no clear successor. There actually might also be glimmers of hope in the government making progress if it can learn from its endless mistakes. 60/40.
Badenoch, the Tory leader, will keep her job. A disaster in May’s local elections is now ‘priced in’, her opponent, Jenrick, is seen as increasingly weird in his desperate desire for the top role and a formal alignment with Reform UK would be the end of the Tories. There are no other clear successors. 60/40.
In focusing on the economy, the Tories will pick up a little in the polls at Reform UK’s expense who will be seen to have peaked despite a strong performance in May. 70/30.
There will be an uneasy peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Neither will be happy but Russia will have the upper hand and hostilities at a certain level will continue. 70/30.
There will be no invasion of Taiwan by China this year but preparations will continue aided by Trump setting precedent with his actions towards Venezuela. 80/20.
Trump’s malign and maverick unpredictability will continue. He and his advisors are running down the clock towards the mid-terms where the Democrats (still hopeless) should take the House of Representatives curtailing at least Trump’s domestic agenda. His actions, however, will stop short of seizing Greenland. Even Trump might baulk at essentially going to war with NATO allies but expect a much larger US/Greenland military base and action in Cuba. 80/20.
No predictions for Europe.Elections are mostly local and although populists will perform strongly it is too early to tell how predictive that will be nationally. Politics will be dominated by the war in Ukraine and, for the UK, the prospect of closer EU alignment.
So, there we are. Six hedged predictions for 2026. The question is not how accurate my odds are on likely outcomes, but what I may have missed altogether. A challenge for all commentators, small and large…
New York has the Rockefeller Christmas tree, Seville has the largest lit nativity scene, 30 feet high, Strasbourg is known as the Capital of Christmas. London has a thin, poorly lit Christmas tree in Trafalgar Square donated by Norway. Sorry Norway. It is time for a change. We need more boldness at Christmas. Bling even…
Seville glowing at Christmas with the world’s largest lit nativity scene…
I am also struck whenever I travel overseas how much better foreign cities are with confident architectural gestures. It could be the glass pyramid at the Louvre, soaring skyscrapers and the High Line in New York, the Dome in Berlin’s Reichstag, the Guggenheim modern art museum in Bilbao. The list goes on.
London is too cautious as is the UK as a whole. We nearly didn’t get the Shard due to internal dissent. We lack imagination, the appetite for taking a risk in supporting dramatic tourist attractions. We find reasons not to do anything. Why didn’t the garden bridge in London happen, for example? It would have been a huge draw, and half the US$40 million cost had been raised privately.
And how many regional cities in the UK offer much to attract tourists to leave London? We mostly have to rely on the countryside.
The UK can’t seem to get anything done. Government can’t cut through bureaucracy. We are mired in endless public enquiries. Not my phrase but we have an analogue civil service in a digital age. Love him or hate him, look at how much Trump has achieved versus Labour in its first year of office with an overwhelmingly Commons majority. We should be embarrassed.
So, a few ideas for next year. A competition for bold architectural projects across the UK, financed privately but with government cutting red tape. No more public enquiries. The solutions to most seemingly intractable problems are often staring us in the face. And let’s start praising what we do well. You only need to consider America to see the benefits of our independent judiciary, for example. More positivity fuels ambition and more gets done.
Risks should be taken, not only in politics and business but culturally too. Which takes me to my last easily achievable idea. For the festive season, a big bold brave Christmas tree in Trafalgar Square next year please which outdoes the Rockefeller one, full of multicoloured lights and massive decorations. We need more bling in life, and when this tree is up, we will love it!
Predictions for next year in January. In the meantime, have a fabulous Christmas! 🎄🎄🎄
Why are politicians of many mainstream parties not coming clean? I am thinking of Labour, the LibDems and exiled Tories. They shy away from support for joining the single market or full scale EU membership for fear of opening old Brexit wounds.
A bold move on closer EU alignment might just be what this government needs…
Grow a backbone. Recent opinion polls are damning of Brexit. Only 31% of voters now think it was the right decision to leave the EU. 61% of voters say Brexit has been more of a failure than a success. Johnson and the Conservative Party take the most blame followed by a host of former Tory leaders and, of course, the lovely Nigel Farage. This is why it will be a long road back to power for the Conservatives and why this blog believes we are ‘enjoying’ peak support for Reform UK who have flatlined on 27% of the vote share.
Just pop the impact of Brexit into AI. UK GDP is 6-10% lower than it would have been without Brexit, business investment is 12-18% lower, productivity 3-4% lower, jobs are 1.8 million fewer, UK trade has fallen relative to our economy’s size. The list goes on. Brexit has been a disaster. And that is before the changed national security environment where the whole of Europe is threatened by Russia.
The Labour government are tip toeing back into the EU’s ambit. It is called a ‘pragmatic reset’ apparently. Ties are deepening through agreements on trade such as a veterinary agreement, recognition of professional qualifications etc. but it is painfully slow. It has just been announced that the UK is finally set to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme from 2027. Whoopee!
Government is painfully slow. It is why Labour is being so punished in the polls. Surely aligning with the EU at least in terms of the single market would be a bold and mostly popular move, particularly as leaving the EU has hardly curbed immigration…
Of course there is one major blockage. The EU currently really doesn’t want the psycho drama of Britain rejoining the EU, particularly with Reform UK riding high in the polls. And I guess, who could blame them?
What a mess. The UK political system has done huge damage to our economic future and national security, from the referendum itself to the way we left the EU. Moderate politicians of all parties should make this clear and move fast to correct the impact. You never know, it might even help them at the polls…
P.S. One more blog this year. I promise it will be festive…😁
A wise Sky News commentator said about Trump before his election that his world view was just to carve up the globe between three admirable (in his eyes) strongmen; Xi, Putin and himself. This amoral/immoral approach with little role for democracy appears to be the driving force behind the Trump administration’s new national security strategy published last Friday.
It trashes Europe, warning the continent is ‘subverting democracy’ and faces ‘civilisational erasure’ from high migration. What a load of nonsense and all this coming from a government that is domestically subverting the rule of law, issuing pardons to murderers (January 6th) and drug traffickers. And that is before wide scale state capture as Trump and his cronies enrich themselves at home and abroad, mixing foreign affairs with private business interests.
This sorry national security strategy goes on to attack the EU generally but depicts Russia as no longer a security threat. Selling out Ukraine seems to be a priority, reinforced by a disgraceful interview with Trump yesterday. Meanwhile, China is pushed down America’s list of priorities and consequently, its power grows ever stronger. Lastly, not covered by this document is the mismanagement of India, a future superpower in its own right which is being driven into the arms of Putin via sanctions. And what is the obsession with Venezuela?
The US under Trump and JD Vance can no longer be seen as a friend of democracy or a remotely reliable ally of the UK or Europe. Perhaps the Sky News commentator was too cautious in his assessment of Trump…
It all makes grim reading and grimmer listening. I am a news junky but during my recent trip to the US felt the need to avoid any television, being sick of the sight and sound of Trump.
Sick of the sight and sound of him…
Then back at home, culturally, as the Trump administration seeks to row back from any form of political correctness on the grounds of ‘freedom’, Trump not only threatens universities, museums and media outlets, but has starkly seized control of the Kennedy Center now referring to it as the Trump Kennedy Center. At the weekend, Trump personally hosted the Center’s annual honors gala, politicising the whole event, rewarding his cronies in front of a MAGA friendly crowd. No wonder ticket sales generally at this venerable institution have plummeted.
The damage Trump is now doing to the fabric of this nation is incalculable. Collapsing approval ratings for Trump’s actions are no protection and focus turns increasingly to the mid-term elections next year to curtail his power. Democrats, responsible for Trump’s victory in the first place and currently in disarray, are not guaranteed to win. Incalculable damage may turn into irreversible damage and that is very bad news for all of us.
This blog is sometimes accused of being too gloomy so here are a couple of personal stories which happened recently to put cheer in your soul as the Christmas season heads towards us.
At the weekend, on my way to the gym, I stupidly lost my wallet in the same manner as I did a few months ago. I didn’t shove it down firmly enough in the pocket of my casual trousers and it fell out. I was bereft, particularly as I am travelling to Spain for a conference this week. I checked with nearby supermarkets and the police station to see if it had been handed in but to no avail. Stomping home 20 mins away, a man was nervously hovering outside my house. A bit odd but I had an intuition he might have some good news for me and indeed he did! He had found my wallet and my address from the driving licence. Despite running a small coffee shop, he made the effort to hand it back as soon as possible and wanted no compensation in return. How kind is that? I said would he mind if I gave him a hug (he didn’t) and now I am looking for his coffee shop, so far in vain, to hand him some chocolates as a modest thank you. I will keep looking.
Second, (it has been a tough few weeks…!) I found myself in a New York hospital on a business trip. Entirely my fault. I suffer from bad jetlag and had not slept properly for days, let alone the disruption to my appetite. I respond by being out for dinner most nights and exercising probably excessively. I forget my age… Anyway, I was sent to the nearest hospital for a check-up. Umm…it was Bellevue, one of the oldest hospitals in the country and the only ‘free’ one in Manhattan. It appears regularly in TV dramas apparently, and I can see why…
Bellevue Hospital, New York. It looks better from the outside…
Gunshot victims, prison detainees, listening to the wails of patients with serious mental health issues, tails of heartbreaking poverty and lack of any affordable healthcare support was an almost overwhelming experience and hardly the backdrop for recovery! But it was hugely positive to watch the staff respond with compassion and patience regardless of the mostly grim circumstances. It is 24/7 for them. I also met Destiny, the daughter of a patient who was seriously ill, and she kept me sane with fantastic humour despite her financial worries of how to pay for her mother’s healthcare. A truly beautiful person inside and out. We are still in touch. My only complaint was that I was over-treated I think possibly because I could pay… I was sent home with the results of endless tests all absolutely fine, a hypochondriac’s dream. However, my abiding feeling from all this was, whatever its faults, thank goodness for the NHS. We should never take it and people who work in it for granted.
Back to politics for the next couple of weeks and then I will try and summon some festive cheer…
A boring day in parliament… because all the budget measures mentioned this afternoon were well trailed for days. That is before the spectacular leak of the full budget by the OBR at least 30 minutes before the Chancellor spoke. More radical ideas floated over previous weeks which had the impact of damaging investment plans were in the end funked by the government. It is in a mess.
A mess of short-term revenue grabbing measures…
I wanted this government to succeed because it is all we have currently got to protect the UK from a populist surge. Patience is now wearing thin.
Ministers don’t understand business and had no idea of the impact of raising employers’ National Insurance in the last budget which has hit growth and employment. Dividend income taxes have now risen in this budget further damaging entrepreneurship. The tax advantages of pension salary sacrifices have also been cut when there is an overwhelming consensus people are not saving enough for their pensions.
A sly dig at people living in large, valuable houses by essentially doubling council tax will probably backfire as asset rich, income poor house owners’ revolt. Councils will probably see little or any extra revenue. Meanwhile, council debt has soared to £7 billion due to rising special needs education and social care costs. This figure needs watching very carefully. A disaster is about to unfold as the government avoids any long term policy solutions.
Only the increase in minimum wage rates and gambling taxes are remotely good news.
Under this Labour government, longer-term growth forecasts are down, and inflation forecasts are up. A lack of productivity growth remains unchallenged. Oh dear, indeed.
It is a good budget for those on benefits, precisely the opposite of policies needed for encouraging growth. The cap limiting households on universal or child tax credit from receiving payments for a third or subsequent child is to be scrapped from April whilst there is no indication of new initiatives to get any of the 9 million inactive people of working age back to work. Neither Starmer or Reeves wanted this reversal, but they are now in hock to their revolting backbenchers.
Labour governments mostly tax and spend more, they have no idea of how to encourage aspiration and unemployment normally rises. No change there then. If only there was a credible Opposition called the Conservative Party, focused on building back a reputation for economic competence rather than Reform-lite rhetoric…
This blog has on several occasions covered the need for the government to do well to head off the threat of populism. Whatever your politics, unless you are a Reform UK supporter (this is not your type of blog, I suspect…), a bit of Labour success would be good for the UK from a number of perspectives.
That is why the lack of competence exhibited by ministers is so frustrating. Botched announcements on spending cuts, a failure to grip house building, the small boats crisis, any social care reform proposals kicked into the long grass. The list goes on with the addition this week that some dangerous prisoners have been mistakenly released from incarceration early.
The headline of this old political advertisement still seems relevant today…
And we are in the run up to the Budget which will surely make or break this government once and for all. There is a £30 billion deficit to fill and that means there will be no good news for anybody. As a small business founder, if I hear from politicians that small businesses are the backbone of the economy, I shall scream. Both Conservative and Labour governments have raised taxes on small firms, taken away incentives for entrepreneurs to take risks and smothered them in red tape. If Reeves doesn’t understand the ingredients for growth now, she never will. I am not optimistic.
Public spending must be reined in but Labour backbenchers don’t seem to have the appetite to make even minor cuts. There is a review of benefits being undertaken but it is not due to report for some while so not much expectation that cost savings will be found in this area soon. It is incredible to hear that one in five people of working age are not in employment and receiving benefits for one reason or another. This is not sustainable. Truckloads of cash are thrown at the NHS whilst doctors keep striking, but it has already been announced health spending will be ring-fenced. Local authorities are going bankrupt across the country as they struggle to recover from austerity whilst spending ever more sums on the private provision of social care.
So, more taxes on the rich, and short-term spending cuts which will probably be chaotic as there isn’t the time, before the next election, for thought to be given to strategic, meaningful targeted reductions. This should have been done long before now.
Farage has no solutions, the Tories are irrelevant, LibDems have nothing to say on economics, the Greens under their new leader come across as anarchists. Oh dear. We need Labour to succeed but expectations of them doing so are very, very low. If only ‘Abstain’ was a political party…
The latest opinion poll in The Times has Reform in the lead on 27%. No surprise there but, if I were Farage, I would be disappointed. Particularly after the Caerphilly by-election. Reform was expected to win but came a distant second. At this stage, it needs to be further ahead.
Not much solace for any of the occupants, even Farage…
What is more disturbing for Farage is the state of the other parties. Superficially, good news that Labour has slumped to 17% (we will come back to this) alongside the Tories who are also on 17%, but, alarmingly, the Greens have surged to 16% with the LibDems on 15% (we will come back to this too).
This is peak Reform-time. Labour and the Tories appear hopeless but surely have little further to fall. The strength of the Greens and LibDems suggest when everything is going wrong for the government, the election result (nearly four years’ away) still points to a red/orange/green alliance.
There is plenty of time for Starmer to pull back some support and plenty of time for Reform to at least partially blow up. The recent comments from one of its MP’s (Sarah Pochin) that she was driven mad by “seeing adverts full of black and Asian people” provoked a rare apology from Farage. The electorate for all their frustrations does not like such overt racism and one suspects there is more to come.
Meanwhile Labour keeps failing to deliver. What is wrong with them? Why are they so hopeless at governing and so bad at communications? All Starmer’s competence is being eroded a way leaving an uncharismatic shell at the heart of government with seemingly no guiding philosophy for what he wants to achieve. Pragmatism is one thing but pragmatically achieving nothing is another…. House building targets are already unachievable, small boats keep coming, taxes keep rising partly because of a failure to make cuts where required. The list goes on. Labour really needs these next four years!
But what about the Tories and LibDems? The Tories remain flat footedly useless, still believing a Reform-lite agenda is a substitute for economic competence. But it is the LibDems who should also be disappointed by their opinion poll rating. The Greens are cutting through, yet the LibDems choose to make their opposition day in parliament on the Royal Family. What?? More importantly, still traumatised by their alliance in government with the Tories, they are failing to make an economic case for moderate Tories to switch over to them permanently. They have it in their hands to destroy the Tories for a generation but like electoral reform and reform of the House of Lords are missing a once in a lifetime open goal.
So, there you have it. All major parties and wannabee major parties ex the Greens are failing to resonate. Against this backdrop, bizarrely, the electoral landscape still (just) favours the government…
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