I have to confess I am a dog person. Cats don’t really do it for me, but this blog applies to all of us who love pets, particularly rescue ones.

Just over nine years ago, having trawled through the Dogs Trust and Battersea Dogs Home websites in vain, looking for a suitable rescue dog for a London home, we signed up to Labrador Rescue, South East. More months passed and nothing. In frustration we put our name down for a puppy and then the call. There was an excitable brown Labrador called Rollo who apparently would be perfect for us. He was 5 years old, and his first owners could no longer cope with him. Separated from his brother he was badly in need of a secure long-term home and lots of affection.

We arrived at the foster home where Rollo was being kept temporarily and the rest as they say is history. Bursting with energy, unused to any form of controlled walking on a lead and heavily overweight, he threw himself at us. His need for attention was overwhelming. We filled in forms as to our suitability as a dog owner, our house was inspected and home he came, only on loan mind you (Labrador Rescue are very strict!) but that was it. We never looked back.

Demanding, stubborn, food obsessed, always stoic and somewhat curmudgeonly in later life, owning Rollo was a full-time, but rewarding occupation. In the early days, we trained him, made him fitter and, much to his disgust, slimmer. Losing 15kgs, he looked great after the first 12 months. In fact, neighbours would say to us; ‘what you have done with Rollo is fantastic… my partner is overweight and unfit, any tips?’ Our reply was daily long walks on a lead and restricted helpings of food in a bowl in the corner of the kitchen. Umm…perhaps not so helpful… But the quality of Rollo’s life improved massively and, in the end, got him to a fine old age where he could be stoic and curmudgeonly!

He was also vulnerable, increasingly so in later life, but it was a privilege to keep him protected. Rollo was not burdened with too much common-sense whether it was in relation to traffic, falling into canals, snuffling out rotten food, taking on dogs which were far too aggressive for him etc. etc. Then, unfortunately, he suffered all the problems of a pure breed Labrador, in particular early onset arthritis, stomach problems exacerbated by his anti-inflammatory drugs to keep him mobile, and finally an enlarged heart. Numerous trips to the vets and a few hospitalisations later, his medicine cabinet was larger than that of an average pharmacist. The vets said he probably wouldn’t make 10 but we got him to 14 and they were as chuffed as we were.

Lastly, his contradictions. We thought he only loved his owners for the food. He would walk up to complete strangers as if they were his long-lost friend, making you feel somewhat sidelined. He would sulk in spectacular fashion, sitting with his back to us for hours, particularly if he felt a few more scraps from the table should have come his way. Yet, wherever we were so was he. Outside, seemingly oblivious to his surroundings, he would mooch but panic if he couldn’t see us. Inside, he was our shadow, even in old age barking to demand we helped his wobbly legs get him downstairs so that he could join us in the kitchen. And last thing at night, if he was in the mood, even towards the end, nothing but nothing could stop him climbing 3 flights of stairs and bursting through the bedroom door so that he could sleep (and snore!) close to us.

Sadly, Rollo passed away of a heart attack on Wednesday, aged 14, falling asleep for the last time. It happened at the vets where he was being treated for a stomach infection, so he was in good hands to the end. Needless to say, whilst not wholly unexpected, we were devastated.

Rollo could be frustrating and was always high maintenance, but we never regretted a moment of our time with him. We rescued him when he was no longer wanted and gave the lad a safe, loving home. His very presence was a source of fulfilment to all who knew him and he was quite the local celebrity. One hopes that somewhere else he is now running pain free on perfect joints with endless supplies of food.

As lockdown ends and there are many unwanted dogs bought in haste requiring a new home, our advice is go and rescue one. You won’t regret it.

Rishi Sunak is a class act. His budget was delivered perfectly. His handling of yesterday evening’s press conference consummate. This morning’s performances clear and resolute. On top of the detail, fluent and modest, he was convincing in having his cake and eating it. He pledged support for levelling up, public services generally and encouragement for business and future entrepreneurs through incentives for investment, green technology, the creation of freeports etc. How refreshing a contrast to the Prime Minister. ‘Honest Rishi’ certainly beats a dissembling Johnson.

And yet we know there is pain to come. It is spend now and pay later and, as this plays out, the concept of ‘levelling up’, already under pressure, will buckle. There are obvious reasons for this and more subtle ones.

First, the obvious ones. The government will have spent some £400bn on cushioning the impact of the pandemic through highly sensible measures from furloughing, small business loans, and grants to businesses particularly hard hit by lockdown. At an individual level, benefits have been topped up, the self-employed have received assistance, even evictions from rented accommodation were suspended, to list a few initiatives. But the universal credit increase is due to end in September, furloughing will wind down, leaving the scars of higher unemployment and some small businesses will simply never recover. Many public sector wages will remain frozen and initiatives to move some government activity up North feel like window dressing. In several respects, one can argue ‘tough’. The government cannot continue supporting the economy and individuals at this level for ever. Something has to give if you are to avoid an entirely socialist model of governing or, even worse, a collapse in the impact and credibility of endless government debt. This is a reasonable argument.

The more subtle reasons for ‘levelling up’ faltering and disparities of wealth growing are due, however, to the same policies that have been in place since 2008 to manage economic shocks; huge monetary easing. The unintended consequences of such actions, essentially pumping vast amounts of money into the financial system through government bond buy-backs and maintaining low, almost zero interest rates, have created huge asset bubbles which have continued throughout the pandemic. These are partly exacerbated by some additional poorly-directed government largesse in areas such as housing.

The evidence during this Covid crisis is stark. The economy is awash with cash allowing cheap borrowing. Stock markets rose globally by some 10% in 2020. Property prices have risen, despite the crisis, fueled by housing shortages and stamp duty holidays. Covid business loans have not always been used appropriately but to finance takeovers, for example, and that is before one considers fraud with some £20 billion estimated to have gone missing. Targeted austerity in relation to public services in the UK may be over, but it will not offset accelerating disparities of wealth. If you have investments and own your own home, you will be doing well regardless of the pandemic, just like you have been doing since the economic crash of 2008. If you do not, then you will be struggling and that is before you consider the additional wealth gap across generations.

This is a global phenomenon not simply a domestic one. An article in yesterday’s FT highlighted the fact that the Federal Reserve stimulus has made private equity executives, who are some of the richest people on Wall Street, even richer as they have received hundreds of millions of dollars in payouts despite a struggling US economy. This is before a proposed US$1.9 trillion Covid stimulus package, which, whilst necessary in parts, will inflate asset prices further. If all this fuels a return to inflation which is highly possible, guess what this has historically always done, exacerbated disparities of wealth…

On balance, this budget does not stand up to the ‘levelling up’ test if the aim is to reduce overall disparities of wealth absolutely and across regions. Whilst the government has introduced many sensible measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, it will not counteract and may even add to the unfortunate side-effects of long-term policy largesse.

One thing is for sure. Recovering from Covid will be as tricky as Covid itself.

The EU has been having a rough time of late and here are a few reasons why:

First, the debacle of the Covid vaccine roll-out. For those of us in the UK who supported continuing EU membership and decry zero sum game nationalism, particularly when it now relates to vaccines, this has been frustrating to say the least…

The European Commission’s embarrassing U-turn on trying to impose vaccine restrictions on Northern Ireland in the face of poor advance ordering of vaccines for EU members relative to the UK was a spectacular own goal. To add to the EU’s woes, assertions initially aired by German officials and then highlighted by President Macron, with no hard evidence, that the UK’s Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine was relatively ineffective for the over 65s, has ensured EU disarray over the vaccine roll-out was complete. Friends of mine on the continent and in Ireland are looking enviously at us, as they wait in vain to be vaccinated. Surely a first. But in the face of a virus which respects no borders, it is in our interest as much as ever that the EU gets this right.

And in mentioning President Macron, he too seems to be shooting himself in the foot to the EU’s detriment. He is increasingly fractious as he tacks to the Right to combat Muslim extremism, introducing a controversial law banning the filming of police actions, subsequently withdrawn in the face of allegations of police brutality towards ethnic minorities. Combined with indulging in his bout of vaccine nationalism versus the UK and looking strained, it is surely linked to the popularity of the Far Right. A recent presidential election (due April 2022) poll puts Marine Le Pen just 4% behind Macron in a run-off. Early days but worrying.

Add to this the departure of the steady, reliable and powerful Merkel in October and there seems a lack of bandwidth in leadership to guide the EU out of its troubles. Even Draghi’s rise to the premiership in Italy is cause for concern. Whilst highly able, this technocratic appointment just highlights the failure of democracy in a nation which cannot hold together government coalitions, even mid-pandemic.

Next are issues relating to the troublesome former Eastern European bloc. Hungary and Poland, in particular, are becoming increasingly authoritarian, leaving the EU perplexed in how far to go to rein them in. Despite resolving issues that nearly derailed a coronavirus recovery fund, the cultural divide with western Europe continues to grow. Judicial reforms, restrictions on the media and the erosion of checks and balances have reinforced the governing parties’ dominance there. Banning abortion, restricting LGBT rights and curtailing media freedom are all on the legislative agenda in these countries. Only last week, Poland’s governing Law and Justice party (PiS) proposed a tax on advertising revenues to further undermine private, independent media. Since the PiS took office in 2015, Poland had fallen from 18th to 62nd in the World Press Freedom Index. Just one example of a disturbing trend. The EU is a bulwark that protects democracy in these relatively new, independent nations but is struggling to strike the right balance on intervention.

None of these issues are cause for Brexit-inspired celebration in the UK. The fall-out of our departure from the single market grows and when the coronavirus pandemic is hopefully tamed, the EU’s challenges will ultimately remain our challenges too. I wonder whether solutions to them would have been easier to achieve had we remained a member. Only time will tell.

Keir Starmer’s honeymoon is over. Under fire for some minor missteps, the current criticism is that he has let the government get away with mismanagement of the pandemic – and now it is too late. Johnson, who seems to have more than nine lives, is now surfing the wave of vaccine success and the Tories have regained their opinion poll lead.

But Opposition politics, as Robert Shrimsley wrote wisely in today’s FT, is a long game, particularly at this stage of the political cycle and with Labour’s dire Corbyn baggage to contend with.

Starmer has brought competence back to the front bench and you could imagine him being a dull, but worthy contender for Prime Minister. But I am sure and certainly hope he is aware, that is not enough.

New Labour (yes, another version!) needs to stand for something and that is harder to do, as Robert Shrimsley highlighted, when the Tories have moved on to the Labour Party’s natural turf. It is also difficult to achieve in the middle of a pandemic. Who is going to listen to new Opposition policy initiatives, when a locked down public is largely fixated on dodging the virus and surviving through to the end of each month?

There will be time. As highlighted in last week’s blog, Rishi Sunak is boxed-in by manifesto commitments not to raise taxes, currently worth 64% of tax revenues. Filleting budget announcements, a plan for non-wasteful infrastructure investment, an overhaul of social care provision, educational and training reform and yes, a nod to cultural wars by embracing constructive English nationalism to make the Union work better, could all bring benefits over the medium term.

In the meantime, what strikes me about Labour is their almost total lack of charisma. That means something when up against ‘good times Johnson’ because when life improves and Johnson has his mojo back, it could be a dangerous weapon. Johnson is not loved by many of his colleagues and a large part of the electorate; but enough people who want to be cheered up may just give him another General Election victory if he lasts that long.

Labour, and particularly Starmer, at least post pandemic, need to look at their dress sense, their sense of optimism and their sense of humour (assuming there is one) and display it. Starmer feels more like Gordon Brown than Tony Blair currently, and lest we forget, the latter is the only Labour leader to have won an election since 1974. Think image, as Blairites would say…

Starmer needs to scour his colleagues for some pizzazz. Anneliese Dodds at the Treasury is simply too earnest, for example, and Lisa Nandy as Shadow Foreign Secretary, is underused.

Post pandemic, make us think but also make us smile. Be those people you wouldn’t mind having a drink with. In that way, Labour will get under Boris Johnson’s skin and, at the same time, make more electoral headway.

It used to be easy to say what the Tories stood for; preservation of institutions, free markets, low taxes, a smaller yet fairly compassionate State, controlled deficits, a belief in the individual and support for aspiration. Essentially being a Tory was being conservative with a small ‘c’ and whilst the Conservative Party was always willing to compromise to win and hold on to power (the Labour Party has never got this except under Blair), such flexibility only went so far. You always knew where the Tories’ heart lay.

So where is the Tory Party now under Johnson? The answer is hard to fathom.

Under his leadership, the Conservative Party has mostly been defined by its Brexit stance. To be dominated by one issue never used to be in the Tories’ makeup and abandoning its broader-based raison d’etre has led to the departure of some of its most able parliamentarians.

In driving Brexit forward, the Government attacked Parliament and the courts. It berated experts and tried to ‘tear up’ the unwritten constitution. Irony upon irony prevailed as an unscrupulous old Etonian, advised by an alleged anarchist who wasn’t even a Party member, essentially launched class warfare but positioned the Tories on the side of the ordinary person versus the elites.

Destructive but effective. As a strategy, it worked. An 80-seat majority based on a slew of former Labour seats in the North and Midlands has given the Tories a further 5 years of untrammelled power. But the victory was based on Opposition splits over Brexit and in particular the move of the Labour Party to the hard, unpatriotic Left. Such opportunities for victory are unlikely to be available in the future.

Confusing signals from imminent budgets?

And, as the Tories seek to chart a path of post-pandemic recovery, they continue to lose their identity over economics and their reputation for skilful flexibility and prudence. There are budgets scheduled for both March and November, in part to confront the massive Covid-related deficit, but the brakes had already come off public spending long before the pandemic. Now, in refusing to abandon its manifesto pledges of not increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT, which represent 64% of tax revenues, the Government is left with few options but to attack entrepreneurialism. It is mooted that Corporation Tax and Capital Gains Tax will soar, whilst a property tax may also be introduced. And the pandemic-dominated budget deficit will continue to expand exponentially as the government continues with HS2 and other initiatives to ‘level up’ the North with the South. Some measures of course will be very welcome but not all, as intrusive State intervention, not always economic, ceases to be a Tory anathema.

Brexit, for the time being at least, is fading into the background and management of the Coronavirus will dominate political dialogue for some time. But inevitably, two party politics will become competitive again, particularly if the accusation of Johnsonian incompetence sticks. The latter is becoming less likely as he is potentially floated off the Covid rocks with a successful vaccine roll-out. However, in the face of a generally more competent, moderate Labour Party, better suited to arguing for a continuing increase in the role of Government, it is hard to identify what alternative the Tories offer and why you would vote for them. This loss of identity may cost the Government dear in the medium term but, by then, one doubts the current Prime Minister will be around to care.

It was a perfectly calibrated inauguration, both in content and tone, and each of these ingredients are equally important to ensure success over the next four years.

In a sea of articles, there were several excellent, pre-inauguration ones assessing the prospects of a Biden administration in yesterday’s Financial Times. My only caveat was that they were a touch on the gloomy side. ‘Awesome stakes’ and ‘Why the US republic came close to death’ led the headlines. Actually, I am more optimistic than that.

Martin Wolf, in particular, backed up his pessimistic thesis with statistics showing stark disparities across parties and ethnicity in attitudes to US politics. But there were positives in the detail. Donald Trump over-reached himself in the last days of his presidency, as did some of the populist Senators such as Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, who backed him. They should have known better and taken a steer from the (now) Minority Senate Leader, Mitch McConnell, who has condemned Trump’s actions. I was struck by one survey which allows some optimism. There was virtually no support across all sections of society for the Capitol takeover. Approval of these actions, goaded by Trump, fell away with every day of media coverage showing the awful actions of an unhinged minority. Many, even those who initially felt Trump was a breath of fresh air, have had enough.

Undoubtedly, President Biden has a huge task ahead of him to unite the nation and bring some consensus back to US politics. Some policies, quickly introduced, such as a stimulus bill and stronger actions to control the pandemic, will do this. Others, for example re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement, will not, being the preserve of only those with liberal opinions.

What will unite the nation is a change of tone from this Democrat administration, which appeals to those who have felt constantly ignored by the ‘liberal establishment’. There is no better analysis of this than that contained in Professor Joan Williams’ book, ‘White Working Class, Overcoming Class Cluelessness in America’.

I have written about her analysis before as it is excellent. Essentially, those wrong-footed by populism should have seen it coming. Her thesis goes as follows:

Many people have conflated ‘working class’ with ‘poor’ but working class is, in fact, the elusive, purportedly disappearing middle class. They often resent the poor and the professionals alike. But they don’t resent the truly rich, nor are they particularly bothered by income inequality. Their dream is not to join the upper middle class, with its different culture, but stay true to their own values in their own communities – just with more money. White working class motivations are often dismissed as racist or xenophobic when they have their own class consciousness.

This is not to downplay the impact of racism or xenophobia but how the tone of politics, not simply policies, can help solve divisions where they exist, strengthening the US body politic in the meantime. If the Biden administration can empathise with how this section of voters feels, of being patronised and/or ignored by the establishment, and speak to these concerns, then it is half way there. Focusing on patriotism, individual freedoms and avoiding cultural wars, whilst of course tackling racism, will be key, combined with practical policies such as re-skilling parts of the workforce and embracing infrastructure investment. Interestingly, Keir Starmer is adopting the same approach to rejuvenating the Labour Party’s appeal here in the UK.

Even at 78, the politically centrist President Biden feels the right person to cross these divides. He, and other inauguration participants, made an excellent start yesterday.

Meanwhile, goodbye Former President Trump. One hopes you enjoy your time at Mar-a- Lago, spending more time with your lawyers…

Such predictions always require a review of how accurate 2020 ones were. Umm…not too bad actually. Seven out of nine were pretty much correct. A quick run through is provided below. But of course, there is a proviso. Such analysis all seems irrelevant in the face of Covid. Who got that right? This was the only issue that mattered in the end and affected almost everything.

Anyway, here we go:

In UK politics, the predictions for 2020 were that the Tories would get Brexit done, selling out Brexiteers where they had to (fishing?) but pursuing an English nationalist agenda, at least in tone. In the face of Tory dominance, Keir Starmer was Labour’s best bet and that the LibDems will be politically dead for a generation or permanently, requiring a new centrist party but not yet. Mostly true where Covid allowed.

In Scotland, there would be no second referendum (correct) as the SNP had peaked (looks like being horribly wrong…).

Overseas, Trump would escape the consequences of impeachment by the House of Representatives and emerge politically stronger to win the presidential election. So true until the impact of Covid unseated him. One silver lining in an otherwise bleak sky.

Cultural wars across the West would intensify as liberal cities versus conservative rural regions slugged it out. So true and set to intensify further.

So, to 2021 if we can face it…

It will be a relatively quiet year because of Covid.

Despite conjecture, Johnson will stay as PM to bed down Brexit and see out Covid. The self-styled ‘world king’ cannot walk away mid-battle. But backbenchers, recognising an increasingly effective, competitive Opposition, will be restless about his style and competence and the stage will be set for a possible 2022 departure. Any independent review of the management of the pandemic will not be kind and, even before the long-term consequences of Brexit come to fruition, another game changing political career will ultimately end in failure.

Despite the SNP surge there will be no Scottish referendum on independence. Johnson will block it.

Biden will be more radical and effective than expected, particularly as the Democrats have seized the Senate. I was struck by commentary that he and Nancy Pelosi are determined to make a real impact in the closing chapter of their careers. Climate change and infrastructure (ex-tackling Covid) will lead their agenda. Short of an unexpected crisis, there will be no radical change in foreign policy except repairing the well documented damage of Trump. It will be painful for the UK, however, as it watches the US re-embrace the EU.

Whatever the polls say about the attitudes of Republican voters, Trump is now a busted flush having over-reached himself since Election Day. He will not shape events in 2021 leaving the GOP to sort out what sort of Party they want to be. Bruising attempts to drop many aspects of Trump’s legacy will succeed but not wholly.

Macron will try and seize control of the leadership of Europe ahead of the 2022 Presidential election in France and to take advantage of Merkel stepping down. A close call, but he will not succeed. Germany, and whoever is the next Chancellor, will maintain their dominance.

Lastly, across borders, there will finally be progress in reining in the powers of social media companies. There is a real consensus emerging that the power of the likes of Facebook and Twitter has gone too far. Freedom of speech considerations are no longer the lazy default position they were and require legitimate scrutiny. Governments will gradually assert control; monopolies will be broken and social media companies will ultimately be held to account perhaps through similar responsibilities to those of publishers. As the tide of fake news and attempts to manipulate democratic processes surge, this cannot come soon enough.

Of course, progress in curtailing the pandemic will continue to ‘Trump’ news agendas. But there is one good thing about 2021. At least you can use that phrase without being sadly ironic…

Not my regular style but there is only so much gloom readers can take… In an attempt to end the year positively I had thought I would celebrate a Brexit deal and the imminent defeat of the coronavirus. Oh dear…

But there are still reasons why a contemplative view of 2020 can cheer you up as we look to next year. Here are a few of them:

• Boris Johnson is being found out and Cummings has gone. The unpleasant, extreme libertarian streak is abating in the Tory Party. Experts are back in vogue and Johnson is increasingly seen by his colleagues as ‘the wrong person to be PM at this time’. Vacillating incompetence, an inability to learn from his mistakes and wild exaggerations just don’t work. The view of his backbenchers is ominous for him. He has done his job in seeing off Corbyn but there is a belief that the tragedy of Covid-19 and its eventual aftermath requires a different character and indeed tone from the top. Interestingly, there are also growing mutterings from MPs that to be a Tory doesn’t mean anything anymore as a combination of the virus and the dash to populism to hold on to the ‘Red Wall’ has led to seemingly endless, massive public expenditure pledges. The future looks bright for Rishi Sunak…
• On domestic policies, the issue of homelessness is finally a priority, the perilous state of social care can’t be ignored any longer and the NHS won’t be underfunded for a generation. The only caveat to the latter point is that NHS accountability is not sacrificed. Despite rising wonderfully to the challenges this year, it is far from a perfect organisation.
• Overseas, Trump has been vanquished. However much he rages from the sidelines, he will no longer be POTUS. No more needs to be said.
• Lockdown has sometimes brought the worst out of people – an obsession with shopping and materialism generally still evident at Christmas – but mostly the best. Community initiatives are everywhere to help the more vulnerable. The importance of family across generations has been emphasised, friends are helping struggling friends and employers’ duty of care to their employees is firmly centre stage. Quite right too.
• Lastly and closer to home, in running my modest consultancy, JPES Partners, comprising some 20 people, the team has been exemplary. Working through the pandemic has been challenging as clients seek to maintain their external profile in difficult times through media engagement and homeworking is not the nirvana many talk about, particularly in a people business. When can you leave work behind you when it pours through your computer screen into your home? How can you unravel issues from a distance, particularly if you have rarely met the individuals in person, if at all? But everyone has worked hard, delivered exceptional results and gone the extra mile to make online interaction as smooth as possible. Last Friday, we had our Zoom Christmas Party. Containing an excruciating quiz, bad jokes, and plenty of alcohol delivered to employees’ doors, it lasted over two hours. The occasion flew by. Bearing in mind my antipathy to such things online, what more can be said. That is high praise indeed…

Have a relaxing festive break everybody and look forward to next year with as much optimism as you can muster. At least we can all agree that 2021 cannot come soon enough!

There is no upside to Brexit. The concept of national sovereignty is ephemeral in a global economy awash with pan-national crises. What does it mean in an age of global warming, pandemics, the absolute power of the US and the rising power of China? The answer is very little.

If the UK has issues such as a north-south divide, poor public services, weak infrastructure, fractured relationships with devolved governments, none are solved by leaving the EU. Some are exacerbated.

It is true that ending our membership of the EU will impact immigration and it is also true that the rise in immigrants from Eastern Europe has in some regions occasionally been difficult to absorb, at least culturally. But these individuals often staff our public services, the NHS in particular, work on our farms and pay their way. They will now be replaced more frequently by non-EU immigrants which one doubts was the motivation of Brexit voters.

We were constantly promised that a trade agreement with the EU would be easy, that an ‘oven-ready’ deal was in the offing. Well, another let down from Brexiteers, either by accident or design. Here we are, over 4 years later, scrambling for a last-minute deal. Those supporting Brexit now dominate government. They must own the final outcome, even a disappointing ‘skinny deal’, and there is nowhere for them to hide if we crash out.

There are two outstanding issues. First, fishing rights. These are a red herring since the fishing industry, according to its own figures, represents less than 0.1% of our economy and at least half of British caught fish are exported to the EU anyway.

What really matters is the second issue which is around regulation and state aid. The EU will not let us in to their single market with regulatory or state subsidy advantages. Being on their doorstep is why comparisons with a Canada style deal, which doesn’t give Canada completely tariff and quota-free access to Europe anyway, are erroneous. A level playing field is crucial to the EU dealing with a major economy 21 miles across the English Channel and having a land border with Ireland.

The UK is stuck. One understands that full sovereignty, free from any EU restrictions, ought to be the goal of Brexiteers to make the initial pain of leaving the EU worthwhile. The problem is that such an absolute approach to ‘taking back control’ blocks a trade deal, being contradictory to the principles and political will which drives the European project. You can’t have your cake and eat it to paraphrase a well-known Prime Minister…

The cost and added complexity of achieving that full rupture will be enormous and hasten the UK’s decline. The car industry is already looking fragile with a series of damaging Brexit related announcements this week. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility estimates a no deal Brexit will cost £40 billion and that is on top of previous Brexit and now coronavirus-related losses. Freedom to travel to the EU is to be curtailed. None of the pitfalls of failing to achieve a trade deal were set out during the EU referendum by those promising the sunny uplands of a new arm’s length relationship.

David Cameron and George Osborne were wrong about the economic consequences of leaving the EU only in their timing. Those consequences are now crystallising. One hopes the glib, exaggerated promises of Johnson and the band populists around him will now be seen for what they are and that they pay the price electorally. I am not so sure that will happen, at least not yet, but it is early days…

It has not been a good week for the government, despite vaccine progress. Confusion over the rules splitting the country into new Covid lockdown tiers of varying severity, an embarrassingly large parliamentary revolt over passing the legislation required to implement those new restrictions and then carnage on the high street has piled on the misery. And it is only Wednesday.

There is just the little matter of a no-deal Brexit to sort out and we are done for the week…

Authority is draining from Johnson as disillusionment with his handling of the pandemic grows. He looks exhausted and unhappy. We have had chaos amongst his No. 10 staff, rows with devolved governments and regional majors and U-turns galore. In order to get legislation passed to secure these new tiers of regional restrictions, Johnson was forced to implore his backbenchers in person in the Lobby not to revolt against his plans. 53 Tory MPs ignored him with another 16 apparently abstaining. Only the Labour Party’s abstention saved the day.

Increasing numbers of Tories feel the economic price being paid to suppress Covid is becoming too great. Many of them believe that Johnson and his government are too supply-side driven, overly steered by the needs of a sometimes unaccountable NHS and an ever-growing army of scientists enjoying the media limelight.

Outside Brexit and trying to manage the pandemic, it feels Johnson is lost. He wanted the top job badly but never had a clear idea of what to do with it when he got there. It was why he was so attached to his senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, to fill the vacuum. Now he is gone, Johnson’s only real policy is spending huge sums to ‘level up’ the North versus the South. It must be galling for him to watch his popular chancellor then take the credit for this. You can sense the tension rising.

My Westminster contacts tell me Johnson was widely perceived as a stop gap leader to see off Corbyn and there is no great loyalty to him. Umm…buyers’ regret…? There are rumours Johnson may be ousted within a year as a rejuvenated Labour Party under Keir Starmer scores hits. Apparently, a few letters have already gone into the 1922 Committee, which is the voice of Tory backbenchers, calling for a new leadership election. Incredible, when only a year ago Johnson won a General Election with an 80-seat majority.

Who knows? It still feels too early to get leadership jitters and a vaccine is on its way to hopefully defeat Covid. Perhaps MPs will relax by the Spring. But Johnson is currently on the ropes and is unlikely to fully recover.

Britain’s version of Trump may go the same way as his great supporter. Another blow to populism, because ultimately it is competence that counts, and there will be few tears shed across a good part of the political divide if that happens.