Filling a vacuum in a post-Brexit world with thoughtful centre-right political commentary from a senior political adviser who is founder of an international marketing and media relations consultancy.
I am at the Tories’ party conference in Manchester this week, so it’s a quick Tuesday blog. Why am I here, you might ask? I grew up near Manchester, and I like the city. It is booming, no thanks to Andy Burnham.
As for the Tories, they are almost endearing… a small, actually quite happy band of people who are luxuriating in their irrelevance. Bars are mostly half empty, hotels are easy to book, and commercial stands at the conference are sparse, but the vibe is, well, comfortable.
In terms of hard politics, there isn’t any. Most think Badenoch will be gone by May. James Cleverly seems to have missed his chance, and that just leaves Jenrick as the next leader, giving a slightly weird speech today in his desperate need for the top job. He is clearly a fraud who will drive the few remaining moderates into the arms of the LibDems. But nobody seems to care. Who has heard of any of the other front benchers?
Mel Stride, the decent Shadow Chancellor, has managed to persuade his colleagues that it is the economy, stupid, but his policies are drowned out by immigration. The Tories now advocate leaving the ECHR and mass deportations. Hopeless.
A Reform-lite approach is a road to nowhere. Add to this, you now can’t be a parliamentary candidate unless you believe this rubbish. What happened to freedom of thought/speech so beloved of the hard-right? The circular firing squad is now fully in place. A recipe for mediocre candidates, the quality of which is already in decline, advocates of policies which either repel, or in some voters’ eyes don’t go far enough, is now being served to the electorate.
A once great party humbled, in a deep hole, handing out shovels to its few remaining supporters to keep digging. Never mind. it is easy to get to a bar and order a drink at conference nowadays. Happy irrelevance indeed…
As I head back to London from NYC, my week over here has confirmed Trump is running rampant. This time he is also well organised. With a clean sweep of Congress politics is moving to the extremes confirmed by Trump’s Cabinet post picks which are quite frankly extraordinary. Here are just a few of them:
Kristi Noem – Homeland Security Secretary. Famed for boasting about shooting her dog in a recent auto-biography, she is as hard right as you could get and will have sweeping powers to deport.
Pete Hegseth – Defense Secretary barring an alleged sexual harassment case. A former Fox News host and army veteran, he believes women should have no combat role.
Matt Gaetz – Attorney General. This appointment has shocked even Trump supporters. He is facing allegations of sex crimes, is in favour of defunding the FBI and would literally destroy legal structures in the US. Uniformly loathed, many people didn’t even know he had any legal qualifications.
Elon Musk/Vivek Ramaswamy – joint heads of a newly created Department of Government Efficiency. The latter, former Republican nominee contender is just ridiculous, and Musk with billions in government contracts can’t move without tripping over a potential conflict of interest.
The list goes on. A fracking champion in charge of energy, an anti-vaxxer in charge of health, and a Putin sympathiser in charge of the intelligence agencies…
Politics is going to get very ugly here but America voted for it…
Trump’s intentions are clear. There will be no safe guards in place to rein him in. The only modest bright spot is John Thune winning the leadership of the Senate. An establishment Republican, he might bring some sanity to proceedings, but bearing in mind Trump will lead by terrorising any opposition, one doubts it.
The agenda is set, and America voted for it. Mass deportations, the slate of all Trump’s legal woes wiped clean, massive tax cuts with the rich getting richer, environmental regulations torn up, and vendettas pursued against any perceived enemy of Trump. Overseas, Ukraine sold out, Taiwan under greater threat, Israel allowed to run rampant and tariffs ending global free trade, in the process driving up inflation. Oh, and the Trump family and its allies preening themselves with their noses firmly in the public trough. Politics is going to get very ugly here.
As for the Democrats, their defeat is entirely their fault. Too much noise about identity politics, failing to grip illegal immigration, extremists within their ranks undermining law and order by stripping the police of powers and/or funds such as in San Francisco. Despite Biden’s decency and some policy successes, in the campaign they had nothing to say to those who should have been their core voting base. Add to that Biden stepping down too late to allow a competitive race for the Democratic nominee, and their defeat was sealed. Patronising interventions from former Democrat presidents and ridiculous endorsements from celebrities as a substitute for policy hardly helped either.
Grounds for optimism? For all the Republicans’ success, this country is pretty much split 50/50 in vote share. Hard right MAGA extremists are only polling at 6%. The rest of Trump supporters are mostly just frustrated with government and, often, rightly so. Such is the scale of the Democrats’ defeat, they must surely reform themselves. The last president to shrink the size of government was actually Clinton, who took 400,000 off the government payroll so they can change their spots. Trump only has 4 years left and may blow up well before then. Musk is already rubbing people up the wrong way, and some nominations are even shocking core Republican supporters.
Lastly, as I gladly return to London, for all of Labour’s faults, with the rise of the populist Right across democracies, the UK looks a bastion of stability and must surely embrace closer European integration… so, not all bad then…
It has not been a good start to the political season for the Tories. The concrete debacle in schools plays directly into Labour’s narrative and voter concerns more generally that the country just isn’t working under this government. The problem for the Tories is that after 14 years in power, however unfair on some issues, there is nowhere left for them to hide.
But this morning’s YouGov poll outlined in The Times is the most startling confirmation yet of the Tories’ decline. This blog is being written whilst travelling, so no images, I am afraid, but what could capture these results…?
Over half the public will not contemplate voting Conservative at the next election. The Conservative Party is seen as just too right wing on all major issues, specifically public service spending. Only on transgender rights and illegal migration is there some alignment, but these are not priorities for the electorate.
Sunak is the most competent PM since a pre-Brexit Cameron, but he seems not to be resonating with the electorate. Only 26% think he is doing a good job, and he has a terrible approval rating of minus 41% capped only by the Tories’ approval rating of minus 48%. Starmer is in smaller negative territory but is less popular than his party. Ironically, that is not a bad place to be.
Labour is starting to feel like a government in waiting and with a few positive policy announcements, could clean up at the next election. 2024 is certainly starting to feel like 1997, even if there is not the same enthusiasm as there was for Blair.
As for the Conservative Party, it needs to move towards the centre. If the siren voices of its right-wing prevail, it is game over for a generation.
Inside Right Politics 