It has been a strange year. Labour’s less than convincing victory in share of vote terms is causing the government all sorts of problems as it unsteadily takes unpopular decisions upfront. Politically, populism remains on the rise with Reform rising in the polls in the UK, Trump winning in the US and the Far-Right marching ever closer to power in France.

Speaking to friends, most of whom I would call moderates, they voice frustration at excessive political correctness, ‘wokeism’ if you like, bureaucracy, mounting regulation, government incompetence generally and government economic illiteracy in particular. It feels like Brexit all over again when surprising people came out of the woodwork to vote Leave. It seems further populist gains will be made in the year ahead.

However, what are the grounds to believe next year will be better than this one?

Trump will not be the all-conquering president he and a large slice of the rest of America believe. Trump and Musk (what is it about this strange billionaire getting off on extreme libertarian politics) have already lost a key vote in Congress removing the debt ceiling, with dozens of Republicans rebelling. Good. It’s called fiscal discipline.

Four years will quickly pass, and Trump may be rendered impotent in the last two… Meanwhile, he is softening his stance on Ukraine, and it is no bad thing that he is forcing Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defence.

Second, the Labour government has to deliver and will probably just do enough to be reelected. We are a moderate country that will cap Reform. It is the lost Tories you should worry about…

Third, whilst France might head into the abyss, Germany is on course to elect a sensible centre-right government in February, and that is probably more important.

Fourth, and most crucially, there are growing calls for a reshuffle of Christmas trees in London. The Norwegian twig in Trafalgar Square covered in weak white lights is now deemed unacceptable. About time.

A painful contrast: Trafalgar Square v Rockefeller Centre

We don’t need a bullying Trump administration to tell us it is time for a Rockefeller Christmas tree or even a transfer of a few pretty Covent Garden trees to our principal Square.

Momentum is growing, and this will happen. That alone will cheer us up at the end of 2025, whatever happens in the meantime…

Merry Christmas!

There has been a lot of hype recently about Reform UK (‘Reform’) forming the next government with Nigel Farage our next Prime Minister. This has been fuelled by Trump’s election victory in the US, the possibility that the Far-Right takes control in France and Labour’s general unpopularity. The latter is reflected in opinion polls which suggest that Labour/Conservative and Reform are running neck and neck.

All hype and no substance, at least for now…

All this is nonsense of course. Simply Christmas madness. Let me tell you why:

1. There is no general election for four years. Trump will have left office by then, almost certainly tarnished and anything can happen in the interim. The UK has the advantage of appearing the bastion of moderation.
2. Labour is getting all its unpopular decisions out of the way upfront. Whilst its communication skills leave much to be desired, making life harder than it need be, its overall approach is sensible. Labour’s future is reliant on whether it delivers. The government will almost certainly miss its goals but, on the whole, there will be noticeable improvements. There will have to be…
3. Nigel Farage is a hugely talented communicator but also a blow hard. His interest in governing is tangential and Reform has a natural ceiling of support which will block any path to government. Reform actually hasn’t reached the peaks of popularity the Brexit Party achieved. Farage is on a roll with his friend in the White House and Labour’s unpopularity, but this will not last. That is not to underestimate Reform because they will raise decent funds and will broaden their footprint, but this will not be enough.
4. The real fly in the ointment is the state of the Tories. Obsessed by Reform, it is excruciating to watch them lose their way so badly. We all need a decent Opposition. They don’t know what they stand for, have lost any sense of a constructive, moderate touch and will be out of power for a generation. Kemi Badenoch doesn’t impress so far but it is early days and they should always remember Reform is no substitute for a competent, centre-right Tory Party when they are ready. But it could be a while…

So, there will be much talk of populism washing up on the shores of the UK. We are not the US, we are not France, there is no election for four years and, most of all perhaps, we have a strong ironic sense of humour which ultimately always puts extremists in their place.

A note of optimism to prepare you for a Christmas blog next week…

And that is not just because most of it was leaked in advance…

What an earth did commentators think Labour was going to do? It was obvious from the start of this government, hidden by all parties during the General Election, that better public services or even maintaining them as they are would involve higher taxes.

It was a brave (many might say high risk) budget. Nobody likes higher taxes, but the shortfall in public finances merited them.

Asset price inflation after years of quantitative easing has made many people better off than perhaps they expected. The last few years exacerbated by inflation have made it tough for those at the bottom of the ladder. Add in covid and the impact of the Ukraine war, and there was always going to be a reckoning.

The Tories should never have cut employees’ NI, and now employers have to make up the difference. It is quite simply a tax on jobs, and this is where this blog parts company with the government. All parties blather on about small businesses being the backbone of the economy, yet both parties have stuffed them in recent years. Labour shouldn’t have boxed themselves in and reversed the Tories’ cut. Both parties are as bad as each other.

However, one hopes the Chancellor sticks to her guns and keeps the budget intact from whinging pressure groups. The pain might as well be felt now.

The real reckoning is whether the government spends its revenues competently, whether economic growth accelerates accordingly, and whether there is room to cut taxes selectively in 4 years’ time against the backdrop of improving public services.

Umm… We had better hope Labour succeeds because there are few alternatives. The Tories will be weak opponents. In the most inconsequential election of the year, they will almost certainly vote Kemi Badenoch as Leader tomorrow and the odds of her surviving  through to the next election are only a little lower than Labour getting the economy right.

Fingers crossed, but Hobson’s choice indeed.